Powell
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
Something is going to break, DXY or SPX500 take your pick IIUpdate of the trend lines after the FMOC;
From here I would say it's safe to go long in stocks for the rest of the year, FOMC has reached peak hawkishness, inflation has peaked, the dollar is out of gas, almost not even moved after the FOMC, triple divergence in the monthly RSI ;
Right now I would take the contrarian attitude, I would short the Dollar and go long in the SPX500 .
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible.
For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points.
We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events:
1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs.
2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell.
3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31
and VIX Curve inversion.
Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of
which there are 3 events:
1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and
intends to remain vigilant.
2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain
consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important
timeframe for the FED.
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Nature abhors a Vacuum.
As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s.
Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made
higher velocity movements recently.
The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion
dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the
prior 2 most recent curve inversions.
The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as
a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week
and next.
Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine.
That will not happen today IMHO.
Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no
intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase.
This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter
and far more volatile than prior cycles.
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Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows.
It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which
provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again.
______________________________________________________________________
Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is
the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability
of profit.
The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the
position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement.
Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance.
The key to success is to close the position within a few days.
I am taking ATH only.
______________________________________________________________________
Trade Safe & Good Luck.
If/Then Rate Hike SceneriosIf 100 bps, then break below support & cont. down.
If 75 bps, then remain above bottom support.
If 75 bps & hints of future pivot, then back into triangle with breakout imminent.
If 50 bps, then To The Moon!
EURUSD before FED Like we said already, today is FED Interest Rate decision.
This will definitely cause some moves.
Here's what you need to look for before you enter a trade.
Direction : there is a higher probability for a strong USD, therefore we should see a new low on EURUSD. However, we should not sell right now!
Levels: The support levels are 0,9878, followed by 0,9800 and in case of a breakout then 0,9685 will be next.
Entry: There are a few ways to enter but the best one would be if we see a rejection wick above the previous highs. That wick should have formed after the news.
You need those 3 things before every trade. Everything else is money management and confidence (psychology) in your position.
In case of an upside move then we are not looking to enter a trade today!
FED rate hike will push the market to the upsideDuring a quantitative tightening interest rates act as a bullish sign in the stock market. So, a 75bps or 100 bps hike will push the stock price up. And then it creates a bull trap. That's when everything will go down to hell.
DXY looks so bearishThe DXY chart looks in lower timeframe very bearish. That might cause a short squeeze.
Yesterday at powells speech he said bad things about crypto: he said that he wants to regulate the cryptomarket, but not ban it. In general that are bad news for crypto fans.
In crypto there were a hype rally of retail traders, that might think: wow regulations but no ban how cool is that. In my opinion all the retail trader will be dead by the end of tomorrow.
I think crypto whales will liquidate their positions and dxy will go up, because there is no other competitor at the moment.
That is what makes me bullish on dxy, thank you for shorting dxy.
BTC Daily - FED speaks today. Watch out!At the morning we saw nice drop on BTC and that way marketmaker formed supporting trendline
Resistance we formed during Asian session. That makes triangle formation finished and end of that formation will be exactly during fundmental news..
At 09:10 New York time FED Chairmen Powell will speak. Usually during such events market has decreased volatility beforehand and becomes extremely volatile when speaker speaks so it's better to stay out. Especially if you are scalping.
Also at 09:30 Initial Jobless Claims data will be released which can destabilize the market even more.
Personally I will stay out of the market today cause I don't want to risk my profit.
Remember, not having a position is also a position.
If you like the idea, please, press a like to let me know that my work is valuable for you. Thank you and trade wisely!💓😊
UVXY Speculative Long ( Buy Low Sell High)AMEX:UVXY
My UVXY is that fear and volatility will rise after the Powell speech
from Jackson Hole WY tomorrow. Accordingly, I expect UVXY
to reverse its current downtrend while the S & P and NASDAQ
slowly rise
Accordingly, I will buy the $9.50 strike call options expiring
September 2nd now priced at 35 cents er each or $35.00 for
one contract. I expect a good profit targeting Monday the
29th to close the position.
USD/JPY stabilizes after hitting 139The Japanese yen is in positive territory today after starting the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 138.22, down 0.34%.
Japan releases a host of events on Wednesday, including retail sales and consumer confidence. Retail sales for July is expected to come in at -0.5% MoM, following a 1.4% decline in June. Consumer confidence remains weak, with a July estimate of 31.0, following the June read of 30.2. Japanese consumers are in a sour mood and nervous about the economy, and it's no surprise that they are holding tight to the purse strings as inflation continues to rise.
The yen remains under pressure and took it on the chin after Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Powell's brief speech went straight to the point, pledging to continue raising rates until inflation was brought under control. Powell pointedly said that one or two weak inflation reports would not cause the Fed to U-turn on its tightening, a veiled reference to the market euphoria which followed the July inflation report, which was lower than the June release. With the equity markets taking a tumble after Powell's speech, it appears that investors have finally gotten the Fed's hawkish message.
Powell's speech removed any doubts about the Fed's plans to continue raising rates, but the size of the increases will depend not just on inflation, but also on other economic data. Overshadowed by Jackson Hole, US Personal Income and Spending data was weaker than expected. As well, the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, fell to 6.3%, down from 6.8% and below the forecast of 7.4%. If Friday's non-farm payrolls report is weaker than expected, it would be a clear indication that the sharp increase in rates is having its desired effect and the economy is slowing. In such a scenario, Fed policy makers may be more inclined to raise rates at the September meeting by only 50 basis points, rather than 75bp.
USD/JPY is testing support at 1.3822. The next support line is at 137.01
1.3891 and 1.4012 are resistance lines
USDJPY: Dollar remains King!!USDJPY
Intraday - We look to Buy at 137.55 (stop at 136.67)
The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. Support is located at 137.50 and should stem dips to this area. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 137.50, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 139.49 and 140.00
Resistance: 139.50 / 142.00 / 145.00 Support: 137.50 / 132.00 / 126.00
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Euro rises to parity as ECB hints at 75bp hikeEUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. In the North American sesssion, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0019, up 0.57%.
The US dollar has posted sharp gains against the major currencies, as Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole left no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten rates in its titanic battle with surging inflation. The euro, however, bucked the trend and posted strong gains on Friday but ultimately pared these gains, before moving higher once again today. The upward movement has been driven by hawkish comments at Jackson Hole from senior ECB members, including Isabel Schnabel, who is well-known for being a hawk. Shnabel said that the likelihood of high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations was "uncomfortably high" and argued that "central banks need to act forcefully". Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazak was even more specific, stating that the ECB should be open to discussing 50 or 75 basis point moves.
The ECB has raised rates but only to zero, well below the neutral rate of around 1.5%. This means that ECB policy continues to stimulate the economy, at a time when inflation and inflation expectations continue to move higher. The ECB will be hard-pressed to find the balance of raising rates without tipping the weak eurozone economy into a recession.
Overshadowed by Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole was a host of weak US releases. Personal income and spending data both missed expectations, while the Core PCE Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 0.1% in July MoM, down from 0.6% in June and shy of the estimate of 0.3%. The weak numbers mean that the Fed may have to ease back on rate hikes, despite Powell's hawkish speech, as the data continue to indicate that the economy is slowing in response to the Fed's tightening. If upcoming releases indicate that the economy is losing steam, the dollar will be under pressure.
EUR/USD has support at 0.9985 and 0.9880
There is resistance at 1.0068 and 1.0173
Hawkish Jackson Hole Rhetoric Lifts the DollarThe US dollar shot up as hawkish comments from the Jachson Hole retreat sent yields soaring. We have broken through our recent high of 109.30, making new highs at 109.47. We are just a few ticks south of our target of 109.86. Despite the strong hawkish tone of Fed officials last week at Jackson Hole, it does feel like a technical retracement may be in store for us, so watch for support at 108.50. After that there is a vacuum zone to 107.20.
What Jackson Hole Means for the Stocks and the EconomyStocks swiftly sold off as the markets digested comments from the Jackson Hole retreat. This is a gathering of central bankers from around the world, and while no 'official' policy decisions are made, the markets pay great attention to comments made by key members. In particular, Jerome Powell came off sufficiently more Hawkish than anticipated , and the markets reacted as such. The dollar soared past highs along with bond yields and stocks tanked. Powell even said that Americans should expect 'pain' which was a particular somber note and drove the selloff further. At this point a 75bps or even a 100bps rate hike are not off the table for September. Also, particular mention was given to how rate hikes may impact the labor market, with some sources suggesting it could cost up to 4 million jobs . The S&P 500 tumbled to the base of the 4K handle at our very last level at 4009, a level we have been identifying for weeks. If this level breaks, we will return to the 3K's again, with 3978 and 3963 the next levels of support.
USD/JPY SELL IDEA USD JPY Has Reached 4h Supply and constantly left behind liquidity 137.5 is Strong Supply and I Expect Price to react on this zone , Behind on chart has a lot of demand but our target will be around 134 if price make any down move we anticipate 132 for full target , lets enjoy new week good week all
BULLISH DXYDXY has been showing strong upwards momentum and from the positive talks of Powell at Jacksons Hole
$GBP - It's time!$GBP - It's time!
Cable has a good R/R - A pull back to the support areas near 18 areas. A break above next area of interest is the TL down area of where 50EMA is placed and target 200 EMA areas.
Enjoy
TJ
USD/JPY hits 137, Powell speech eyedThe Japanese yen is in negative territory today. USD/JPY is trading at 136.90 in the European session, up 0.34%.
It has been a relatively quiet week for the yen, which is trading exactly where it started the week, around the 137 line. The month of August has not been kind to the yen, with USD/JPY soaring 2.75%. The US dollar is again in favor as the markets have tapered down their excitement that the Fed plans a dovish pivot. Does the Fed plan to let up or remain aggressive in its fight against inflation? We will certainly be smarter after Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole later today. A hawkish message from Powell should boost the US dollar unless investors zero in on any dovish remarks or projections, which could reignite speculation that the Fed will ease up on rate hikes.
The Tokyo Core CPI index rose 2.6% in August, above the forecast of 2.5% and higher than the 2.3% gain in July. This marked the highest gain since October 2014. Policy makers in other major economies can only dream about inflation below 3%, but for Japan, rising inflation is a new phenomenon after decades of deflation. Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for four successive months and inflation is finally on the Bank's agenda. Still, it is very unlikely that the BoJ will do anything more than tweak monetary policy, as its number one goal is to stimulate Japan's fragile economy.
The rise in inflation and the BoJ's rigorous control of its yield curve has caused a steep deprecation of the yen, and an exchange rate of 140 may not be far off. There has been speculation in recent months that the Ministry of Finance could intervene to support the yen, but this has not happened until now and there is no indication that the 140 level is a magical 'line in the sand' that would trigger intervention. For now, the main driver of USD/JPY remains the US/Japan rate differential, leaving the yen at the mercy of the movement of US Treasury yields.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 137.03. Above, there is resistance at 137.03
1.3615 and 1.3504 are providing support
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/26/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2022
- PR High: 13183.00
- PR Low: 13130.25
- NZ Spread: 116.75
Evening Stats (As of 1:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.18% (open > 131250)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13540)
- Session Open ATR: 267.50
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 256K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -21.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13794
- Mid: 13531
- Short: 12959
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
EUR/USD near parity, Powell speech nextThe euro has posted gains today and briefly punched above the symbolic parity line. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9978, up 0.11%.
It seems that whatever angle you examine Germany's economy, things are not looking good. Services and manufacturing PMIs both remained in contraction territory (below 50.0) for a second straight month. The labour market, which had been a bright spot in the economy, saw the pace of job creation fall to a 1.5-year low. Today's releases didn't add any cheer. GDP in Q2 rose a negligible 0.1%, revised from 0.0%. As well, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 88.5, down from 88.7. This wasn't a sharp drop, but it was significant since it marked the index's lowest level since mid-2020.
What is no less alarming than the weak numbers is the pessimistic outlook. As the war in Ukraine drags on with no end in sight, the energy crisis could get significantly worse in the winter, as Western Europe is vulnerable to a cutoff of Russian oil and natural gas. Germany appears headed towards a recession later in the year, and the rest of the eurozone will likely fare no better.
The US economy contracted for a second straight quarter in Q2, but second-estimate GDP was revised upwards to -0.6%, up from -0.9% in the initial estimate. This follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The upward revision was good news for the US dollar, as a weak GDP reading could have raised speculation about a Fed U-turn in policy and sent the greenback lower.
The dollar's next test comes as soon as Friday, with all eyes on Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. If Powell reiterates that the Fed will continue to tighten aggressively until inflation is curbed, the dollar could gain ground. However, if the Fed Chair's message is less hawkish than expected, we could see sharp gains in the equity markets at the expense of the dollar, as was the case following the surprise drop in US inflation earlier this month.
EUR/USD is testing support at 0.9959. Below, there is support at 0.9877
There is resistance at 1.0113 and 1.0195
