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Prediction

Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Evening -- I hope everyone is having a restful weekend and enjoying your time away from markets. Always appreciate it while you can, and spend that precious time with loved ones. Now, let us review the price action last week as we look towards our expectations for the coming trading sessions. The CBOE:SPX opened the weekly candle at $6,126.15 and closed $6,252.50 -- this respectively puts the weekly move at +$126.35. This is slightly above what IV was stating entering the week. We are starting to see seasonality set in as the markets top and look for consolidation. The TVC:VIX dropped throughout the week putting a bottom in at $15.70 which shows volatility creeping to it's lowest point year-to-date. We should all expect a volatility bounce in the near future as the run the broader markets have made out of the steep correction needs to cool off before moving forward. Below is my volatility read for the S&P 500. You will see that HV10 (7.94%) is coiled within 3.30% of its sliding yearly lows. This tells me between the low sentiment in fear and the low volatility in short-term trends, we need to cool off a little. Now looking towards this week, I see the broader markets consolidating and even selling off in order to reset the overbought 'lagging' indicators and pop the VIX up a little bit. The administration has pushed the trade deal deadline off till AUG 1st providing some relief to the markets but, has also created more uncertainties with tariff letters that went out Friday. Look for a negative news cycle sparking up Sunday night into Monday, potentially creating momentum downwards. However, I believe we stay in range of what HV10 weighted to IV implies -- $6,207.72 - $6,311.78. This range holds a divergence from IV of 5.29% and and price gap difference of -$17.32. To me, this says that what is short-term trending is 'contractive' to what IV states. That's all for this week. Stay hedged against your bias always and remember to practice your ABCs -- If you like what you are reading and love volatility range analysis as much as i do -- feel free to drop me a comment and ill get back to you! Till next time, Cheers!
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
BITx -- Weekly Volatility SnapshotHello Bitcoin community 🤠👾🤑👾🤠 Good morning/Good afternoon, maybe goodnight to you pending where you are in the world! Nonetheless, I'm glad you found me because here we are going to look over our weekly historical volatility ranges on CBOE:BITX and assess where IV is in perspective to what's trending. Then we will talk targets within my custom adjusted implied weekly ranges. Entering the week, IV (76.86%) is projecting +17.74% more than what short-term trending markets are showing with HV10 (59.12%) holding a 'strength of IV' of only 76.91%. This is a price differential on the week of -$1.19. Our monthly values with HV21 (71.20%) are hinged slightly below IV, showing a 'strength of IV' slightly more at 92.64%. In my opinion looking towards this week, IV may be painting the bigger picture of price distribution upwards towards quarterly trends. It is expansive from past weeks and above short-term trending markets with a wider range and with IV percentile slowly creeping up. If the trend holds that started last week, my price target will be HV63 at $61.07 which draws confluence with the correction impulse wave top of $60.39 -- a price action to implied calculation difference of only +/-$0.69. Fantastic , right?!? This would take BTC approaching new ATHs again. If price action can find quarterly trends we will be seeing a 'strength of IV' of 108.44% -- only slight advantageous over IV premium. In the end, markets are unpredictably wild and we can only assess and reduce our risk using the tools provided. Always remember your ABCs and to hedge your bias! Come back next week as we recap how the weekly volatility unfolded. Cheers!
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
AAPL - Weekly HV/IV PerspectiveGood evening — I wanted to do one more write up with that being on NASDAQ:AAPL as we enter the week with futures just opening. HV10 (16.58%) is trending -11.56% below IV (28.14%) showing a weekly price gap differential of -$2.89 on the stated implied move to what trending markets are doing. This current IV value entering the week sits 69% within the sliding year spectrum. Now, with Apple consolidating in range for almost eight weeks after selling off when it reached its 4T milestone in December of 2024, has now begun advancing back upwards in price. The strength here is obvious and the quality of company is well, Apple. My price targets on the week is first the upper band of stated IV ($220.58) then moving on towards the upper implied range of HV63 ($225.87). I believe the markets are going to push apple higher while balancing the indices out selling off in other areas. This would start to accelerate HV10, as it is now 91.23% coiled to its yearly lows and needs to unwind. Hopefully with a few short-term trending days increasing we find our regression. Please come back next week and see how our position and volatility progressed forward.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Evening -- Happy July 4th to everyone Let us review last week as we look towards the next in anticipation of the trade deal deadline that looms. I had a target on the SP:SPX of $6,253.59 and the weekly high was $6,284.65. The candle on the short week opened at its low of $6,019.21 and closed $6,233.08 making the weekly range +$213.87. This represents closest to HV63 over IV which stated +/-$253.26 and a 'strength of IV' that was 295% . Again the weekly high is above our range target, but my volatility will always be measured close-to-close. Now as we look towards this week -- IV (13.85%) has shifted upwards slightly with HV10 (7.36%) hinged down and still lowering. In fact, I have bi-weekly volatility as 97.28% 'coiled' to it's sliding yearly low of 4.64% -- HV21 (9.92%) is closer to what IV states with it being 'coiled' 96.61% to it's respective sliding yearly lows. In my opinion, volatility still has room to consolidate slightly as markets rotate higher. I think we can see upwards $6,327.73, but slowly over the course of the week with the last tariff uncertainty getting out of the way. From there, going into mid July we may need to see a volatility spike. The HV10 range I am watching holds a 'strength of IV' entering this week of only 53% -- this shows the price per move is expensive by almost twice as much. Till next time, know your ABCs, have a great long weekend, and stay hedge! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
NIFTY Eyes 25,410: Setup in ActionIn this update, I’m revisiting the setup I shared earlier that points towards NIFTY’s next potential target at 25,410. The analysis covers the key levels, price action structure, and the factors supporting this move. This setup is based on clear technical confirmations and disciplined risk management — not just speculation. Please remember to follow your own plan and manage your trades responsibly. This is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Let’s see how the price action unfolds!
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by Rizwan-Ali
3
USDCAD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal USDCAD - Classic bearish setup - Our team expects bearish continuation SUGGESTED TRADE: Swing Trade Short USDCAD Entry Point - 1.3688 Stop Loss - 1.3717 Take Profit - 1.3634 Our Risk - 1% Start protection of your profits from lower levels Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1