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Price-patterns

BTC will continue uptrend upon support. Target 12,927 - 17,146!Greetings dear traders, Here's what I see happening on the charts. BTC market has gotten ahead of itself. We are now consolidating and entering back into the "Larger Uptrend Channel". We will still reach our targets or 12,927 and 17,146 after that. It will simply take a little more time if we reside in this channel. As you can see from the chart, we should find support soon (maybe by the end of the week). Good luck traders! Many blessings to you all.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Price patterns in relation to intraday chartsIntraday data is based on time frames from the 4 hours and below. For these time frames, the short-term trend in the daily charts will be seen as the long-term trend in the intraday time frames. For those who are keen to trade intraday time frames, they need to know that patterns on these time frames or charts have three principal differences from their long-term counterparts. 1. Their effect is of much shorter duration. 2. Price trends in these time frames or charts are much more influenced by instant reaction to news events than is their longer-term counterparts. Therefore, decisions are not well thought-out when trading these extremely short-term charts but they develop as emotional, knee-jerk reactions. 3. Intraday price action can be easily manipulated. Therefore, their price data are much more erratic and generally less reliable than those that appear in longer-term time frames. These are the reasons why I have choose not to trade the intraday charts. When I first started out in trading, I tried out the intraday charts, especially the 5 minutes and 15 minutes time frames, but the emotional cost of reacting to every split-second movement of price data was high for me. That does not mean you cannot do it. You just need to understand the costs involved in trading intraday charts. The chart below, of EURUSD, is an illustrative 5 minutes chart of how volatility could suddenly change on the whim of emotions due to news. This is based on the 169th Non-Farm payroll (NFP) data which were released for the USA on 8th May, 2020.
Education
by Emekadavid
Interaction of trendsIt is interesting to study trends and how they interact because the price level of any security is influenced simultaneously by different trends. Hence, why we need to note some application of trend classifications as it applies to trend interactions. 1. When we see any specific price pattern, our first question should be: Which type of trend is being reversed? If it is a short-term trend that is being reversed, then we would not be expecting much price movement when compared to an intermediate or primary trend being reversed. 2. Since intermediate and primary trends dominate price action, traders who deal with short-term trends should pay attention to these trends. They can help them in making good trading decisions. 3. When a trade is positioned in a countercyclical position to the main trend, trading losses usually happen. I do not say that trading with countercyclical positions to the main trend do not succeed, but they have a higher probability of resulting in failures. I trade countercyclical positions sometimes, but I am careful. I usually want to see the patterns having high volatility or being well pronounced. Below is an EURGBP chart showing a two bar reversal that did not move much because it was countercyclical to the main trend which was a downtrend.
Education
by Emekadavid
Why Price patterns work. Price patterns are patterns that were made by price based on the relationship between time and the movement of price on a price chart. They could be based on a single bar or candlestick, two or more, or even several bars or candlesticks. For now, I would be using just bars. They could be just for one session based on the timeframe or several sessions or days. The charts below illustrate some bars Single bars Multiple bars Some of the reasons why price patterns work are: 1. Prices are determined solely by people’s changing attitudes towards the emerging fundamentals. That means, prices are determined by psychology. Garfield Drew is quoted as saying that: “Stocks don’t sell for what they worth, but for what people think they are worth.” One recent example of people’s changing attitude is the recent selloff in gold that was experienced at the heart of the Covid-19 pandemic. People thought gold being a safe haven could rise rapidly in prices, but for two weeks between March 9 and March 19, the price of gold fell by 14%. 2. Market prices are not random events. People’s changing attitudes towards the value of an asset moves in trends and trends tend to perpetuate. An uptrend is expected to keep going up until the market psychology changes and the same for a downtrend. The shifts in these attitudes are usually captured by price patterns. GBPUSD chart below showing how a shift in trend due to market sentiment is captured by the 123 pattern and trendline very perfectly. A huge rally ensued. Notes on my observations: 1. Price patterns should not be used in isolation. When I trade price pattern I use confluence of the price pattern with support and resistance levels such as horizontal support and resistance, diagonal support and resistance from trendlines, and Fibonacci levels. 2. Also, you should take note of the underlying psychology that gave rise to the development of the price pattern. I generally trade pullbacks and reversal patterns because these give price actions that conform with the underlying psychology of the market in trends.
Education
by Emekadavid
BITCOIN to hit $10,000 in 4-6 daysBitcoin should now start to trend up for the next week or so. I expect to be at the top of my BLUE downtrending channel again in 4-6 days or at around $10,000. In almost 3 months, the bulls have not yet proven that they have the strength to break out. I personally will be looking to sell (at least half, maybe more, maybe less) again once we get there. I want proof. So far, these bulls have not delivered. Beyond my blue channel you have the first and second necklines and a few other strong resistance points. But you can read more about those in my previous posts. For the purpose of this idea, I'm mainly making traders aware of a temporary short term bullish move to 10k. Peace. And happy trades.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
6
RSI confirmation. New 60 day BTC cycle has begun! Target 28k!$12600 support has held and our new cycle has begun! Yay! Take a look at the chart. With the extended consolidation, it became necessary for me to update my targets. This extended consolidation allows me to also extend my target(s). Notice I have two now. So, what is going on here is that it seems we are in a wedge. Elliott Wave dictates an ABCDE touch and then break out. However, some of the time (I do not know what the statistic ratio is? Maybe a comment warrior could help me out here), we will not experience the last wave. This is why I have two orange arrows pointing out of the triangle. We have two possibilities: a) Hit the top of the triangle and break straight out or, b) After hitting the top, we go back down, bounce off of the bottom and then break out. Because of the downtrending resistance noted in the RSI chart, I expect the latter possibility to become more probable. However, as often is the case, Bitcoin could surprise me again and just shoot right through. Revised targets are: #1 - Just short of our last ATH. Take some off here. #2 - $28,000 or the beginning of March, whichever comes first. Why the beginning of March you asked? Check out the cycles again. Notice we are right on queue and headed up again. This means, we should have about 45 days of uptrend movement before we start heading down again for the last 15 days of the cycle and right into mid-March. Always keep this cycle in mind. BTC is pretty consistent with it. Happy trading friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
4
Litecoin buyers. Now! In my last post I recommended to wait. Now, I am recommending a buy. Technically, this sell off is perfect and exactly what I had been hoping for. We touched $58.20 as of this writing. Exactly where I had my buy order set at. Actually, that low on the candle IS my buy order which was partially filled. Lol. There is the possibility that we still come down to $55, but I obviously didn't want to bet on it. My recommendation is to pick up anything between our levels of $55 (if we get that low) and $62 for a nice longer term swing trade. Target right now is $98.28. Could be higher as we go depending on timing and pattern. I'll update as we go. Stops should be set. I will set mine at $53.40. I do want to warn you, buying here is a higher risk trade because we have no confirmation that we'll go up again. Nice confirmation would be a breakout above the RED descending TRENDLINE and a open of a new candle there on the daily. We could actually continue downward. However, here's my case for buying now: - RSI trendline intersection support (I see us bouncing here) - Tremendous support below: 57.75 (previous ATH), 50MA, bottom Bollinger coming into play, ORANGE TL, etc. - Our leader Bitcoin seems to be near the bottom of it's descent as well - All the gloom and doomers are talking about China, Jamie Dimon, and the end of crypto. This is great for buyers. We know this is not the end but in fact, it has just begun. BOTTOM LINE: This is longer term SWING TRADE advice only. Buy here. Buy now. But for gosh sakes put in your stops as suggested so you don't get burned. Happy Trading all.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
11
I'm still waiting for this BTC confirmation b4 I go long again!Be careful here folks. This could be a BTC headfake. I remain skeptical that the bulls are back in control until we cross above the TOP BLACK line of my long time BULL channel and open a new candle ABOVE this TL on the DAILY. As of now, it looks to me like this could just be the first candle of a bear flag. If so, we would continue down below the $4000 support to hit our 50MA OR UPWARD ASCENDING BLUE TRENDLINE, whichever would come first at that point. I have my doubts that we'll go any lower than this. Currently the price of the 50MA sits at around $3850. The BLUE TL is higher (right now) at $3950. These two could intersect with our $4000 support at about the time BTC comes back down. If that happens there will be MASSIVE BUYING and we will blow right through the TOP BLACK TL and our current all time high of nearly $5000 to continue our upwards tragectory. I would update my charts again at that point. My recommendation is not to buy nor sell at this point. If you do buy, realize it is a high risk trade as we have not properly developed solid confirmation and put in some tight STOPs. If you're looking to buy, hold tight for confirmation OR a final drop to our supports: $4000, BLUE TL, or 50 MA. Buying here is too rich of a risk for my blood. If you're looking to sell short, DON'T. Not here. Best of luck my fellow crypto traders!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
I bought Litecoin again. Here's what I see.After an absolutely explosive and insane move from $50 to nearly $100 in only (6) six days, Litecoin put in another (5) five days of consolidation. Initially, I had hoped it would drop to $57.75 or even our $50 support. But now I am not sure this will be the case. Litecoin continues to look bullish. And just like my Bitcoin chart, it appears that Litecoin has broken out and above the long trending bull channel and will look to form a new, steeper ascending channel. Here's what I currently see on my Litecoin chart: - We've broken out of and opened above our (5) five day downward ascending trend - RSI showing hidden bullish divergence again - China news has been fully digested - Good supports of $73.33 and $74.80 will be hard to break below. My forcast: I see us bouncing around between the top of my bull channel (GREEN TL) and the steeper ascending PINK TL before reaching my new target of $98.28 for more consolidation. Should we reach the PINK TL before $98.28 I will sell. My stop outs remain any daily close below the top GREEN TL. I will follow this closely and adjust accordingly. Happy trading!
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
4
If Bitcoin does this, we'll go to $4800+Let's play a game. Count the ascending triangles. Do you see them? There are 3. The first two are history. We obviously broke out. We are working on the the third and final. If we break above and close higher than this last triangle, we'll go to $4800. The second ramification of this potential breakout would be the formation of a new BULL channel. I've outlined it in BLUE. This is obviously a steeper and much faster paced upward slope. Confirmation of this final target before consolidation is a close above the third ascending triangle. Watch closely. I will put nothing past these BULLS. ...But then consolidation. Caution is advised. It's coming. Happy trading all!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
5
Bitcoin bulls, don't get your hopes up too soon. Your levels.I just want to take a quick minute to remind everyone that the previous trendline for which I drew the bottom of our bullish channel (GREEN) still remains significant despite the fact that it was already broken three times (down on the 10th, up on the 20th, and down again on the 25th). That being said, I am not saying that we'll enter back into the channel again. But what I am saying that it can still act as overheard resistance, and indeed, as you can see from the chart, it has. Bitcoin remains in semi-neutral territory here. Although, it is not bearish (downward sloping RED channel), it is also not bullish (at least, I wouldn't give it that credit) yet. Any trades entered before the first week in August remain fairly high risk in my opinion, especially considering what we are seeing on my charts which is indecision/volatility. Stay cautious and know your levels. The major levels I have indicated on the charts. Seven levels in our current area between the GREEN and RED trendlines are: 1) GREEN TL (currently around $2800 2) $2760 3) $2670 4) $2600 5) 50 MA (currently around $2550) 6) $2420 7) $2340 (which is also %78.6 Fib) Happy trading friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
8
Stopped out! A drop out of bull channel. New entry prices.The market decided that they were not comfortable with the price we were at yesterday. If you follow my post, you'll remember how often I talk about the bottom trendline of my GREEN channel. It is significant. Still is. Once we entered back into the channel, I bought BTCUSD again. I updated my trailing stops often to follow the bottom of my GREEN channel trendline. Last night, I was stopped out. New entries. I am obviously still long on BTCUSD. My target is still in the $4000 area over the next couple of months. And we have NOT entered back into our bearish RED channel. In short we are in neutral territory here as the Bitcoin market is trying to decide where to go. If you're a believer (as I am) that the market will eventually go higher again here are some entry levels you can be looking at: $2550 = 50 MA $2420 = Huge support & Middle Bollinger Band $2350 = 78.6% Fibonacci & Top of bearish RED channel. Below this last level, I become a bear again. Use safe trading practices and always put in your stops! Happy trading friends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
6