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S&P 500 Volume Profile AnalysisAll travel from Europe to US suspended This step is in my opinion a good precaution to stop the corona virus from spreading across the globe. But what does this mean for the US economy? A severe blow! Bringing a big industry like intercontinental airlines to a 30 day halt will have economical consequences. Also it is not just this industry but also all the industries that are somehow linked to airlines. I was not surprised when I saw the biggest US stock index S&P 500 drop after this news. What does the current selling on S&P 500 mean for us traders? In my opinion this is an opportunity. US economy is strong and nothing like this could bring it to it’s knees. Also, a pullback after years of a crazy strong uptrend is a healthy thing for the market. S&P 500 discounted I like to talk about investment assets as if they were regular stuff you buy in a store. Imagine that you go shopping and the same thing which was $30 yesterday is now $20. It is the same thing as yesterday, same quality, same manufacturer. What does a reasonable person do? He buys all he can carry and store, right? Because the stuff is discounted! We can apply the same approach to S&P 500. Pullback in S&P chart means a discount. In my opinion S&P 500 is a “good quality product that won’t spoil”. So the only question is how big the pullback needs to be before S&P gets real cheap and the big guys start pushing the price upwards again. Volume Profile analysis The best tool to uncover the strongest institutional supports and resistances is the Volume Profile. I opened a monthly chart of S&P 500 and looked 12 years back to see how the volumes were distributed in this whole period. This is the sort of BIG picture you want to examine when thinking over long-term trades. The heaviest volumes in this 12 year period were accumulated between years 2014 and 2016 around 2070.00. From there a strong buying activity started again. When there is a pullback big enough to hit this significant Volume Cluster sometime in the future then I think aggressive buyers will come into the market again and they will start buying like crazy. This should move the price upwards again. As you can see from the picture above, the price is currently at another significant Volume Cluster. This could also prove to be a strong support and turn the price upwards again. But if you want to buy with a real BIG discount, then 2070.00 is the place I would picked for a big buy. Long-term investment With this kind of trade you need to treat it like a very long-term investment.This is not swing trade you hold for a few days and then get rid of it. This is a position to hold for a couple of years. With such a kind of an investment you need to think about it like this: First the asset needs to be good. You need to like the S&P 500 and you need to believe in it. You need to believe in the US economy. Only then you should check out the chart and look for a place where you would like to buy it. I hope you guys liked this S&P 500 analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading, -Dale
FX:SPX500
by Trader_Dale
3
CHFJPY – Jpy currency is showing weakness from previous days andCHFJPY – Jpy currency is showing weakness from previous days and the trade might be continued by swiss currency. Trend: Strong Buy Support/Resistance: R3: 111.497 R2: 110.800 R1: 110.169 S1: 109.779 S2: 109.384 Price action: Buyers might continue move higer if buyers break resistance level at 110.169. If we hold above this level then price might see targets such as 110.800 level and higher at 111.497 level. If buyers would dismissed momentum then sellers target is at buyers support at 109.384. Potencial trade idea: Bulls targets: T1: 110.800 T2: 111.497 Bears targets: T2: 109.384 NOTE – We are trading CHFJPY via the preferred trading setups ELITEFXACADEMY
Education
by EliteFxAcademy
EURUSD significant levelYesterday was nice move up... When i use Volume profile on this move up.. There is two significant volume cluster.. First one is from accumulation buying activity for long trade. ( I marked this zone number 1 ) Second one is near to high of the market... There is nice to see what i call " Rejection of higher prices" ( i marked number 2 ) Strong sellers rejected so fast this high price and left in this zone many contracts for short.... I hope so that when the price go back, this strong sellers will be defend their selling positons.. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
3
EURJPY 01.31.19 COMPLETE BREAKDOWN #FOREX Monthly This candle is printing a massive wick symbolizing sellers' exhaustion. We could see it be filled through the next few months or leave those sellers behind and start to make its push to the upside. 7 more hours until this monthly candle closes. This monthly candle is rejecting a key level of support at 125 (Major Quarterly Level). The flash crash brought sellers all the way down to roughly 119 before pulling up quickly. Sellers stuck in that range. Weekly Weekly trendline broken, however currently monthly candle displaying sellers exhaustion! Candle could still be filled. For the last 3 weeks we've been rejecting the Disturbance Zone @ 124.50. Strong support. For 5 weeks the bodies of EURJPY have rejected the 61.8% retracement level. Wicks keeping poking above previous weekly highs, BUT bodies continue to close beneath resistance. Buyers are being accumulated around 125-125.50. Daily The last few days have been rejecting the Daily Disturbance Zone @ 125.375. Price poked above recent highs, however, the daily candle still closed beneath resistance, capturing liquidity aka buyers being fooled. The daily candle that represents the flash crash dropped around 470 pips. However, from the low to the close of the bearish daily flash crash candle, it pulled back around 385 pips. MASSIVE WICK. Recent daily support near our Weekly Disturbance Zone @ 124.50-124.60. We've continued to see exhaustion there. Sellers accumulated in that range. 4H Price is rejecting the 71% retracement fib level. The candle that wicked above resistance (Poked to 124.40-50) accumulated buy orders for those looking for that breakout strategies (retail traders). That candle ended up closing well beneath resistance, symbolized buyers' exhaustion. Don't be fooled by quick movements without price CLOSING at those levels. If the market doesn't close above/below resistance/support then it's not a confirmed break. 2 Candles later, we saw another decently sized wick and engulfed to the downside which is what tanked the price. The massive bearish candle crushed all recent support zones (124.75), shifting the current momentum and solidifying bearish movement for a few days. NO PULLBACK, NO ENTRY Now we look at smaller timeframes for selling opportunities. Buyers' exhaustion, reverse candlestick patterns on 1H and below. Look for wicks to show liquidity. 1H Price is rejecting our 1H Disturbance Candle for the second time. The first rejection of the 1H Disturbance Zone ended in a bearish engulfing candle. Price rejected the same level aggressively once again, if this 1H candle engulfs one more time then the bearish move is very strong. The consolidation zone (124.60 - 125.30) may be broken with this bearish push. Once we have that close beneath on the 1H & the 4H... then we have further push to the downside. A push down to 124.25 once price closes beneath the weekly disturbance zone and is retested. 15 Minute Market Structure shifted back to a bearish trend. Price rejected 38.2%, extending to 61.8% traditionally (124.125) Back to back candlestick patterns at the eighth level (124.875) Possible Take Profits Anyone who was watching this live analysis should have entered anywhere from 124.75-124.875. Take Profit based off of 15 min bearish extension would take us to 124.125 conservatively. This aligns with the 78.6% retracement on the hourly timeframe. If look into historical trends: liquidity is common around 124.125. If we close beneath our current higher low, price would be confirming a shift of momentum. One more bearish push after a pullback is likely. That final push would probably take us see the lowest it'll be for the rest of the year.
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
GOLD - Loosing GroundYesterday #Gold break below the 1240 #support (#endingdiagonal) but managed to bounce back. I already expect Gold to start its major #correction for the move started 1120 but before that one last leg up is still in play (because of ending diagonal #elliotwave pattern). yesterday break of the support indicate that the fall may come quicker than we expect and #Gold may not reach the #pricetarget 1270-75 area. we may be heading for a #truncated5thwave (in ending diagonal) which could cause prices to fall from 1260-63 area to begin the #majorcorrection.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by forexqueenpk