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2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 1 (2 BTC)“Maybe this is a game that can be beat.” -Knish in the movie Rounders I learned how to trade by watching others make decisions in real time. The countless hours of studying theory / different indicators only went so far. As soon as I was ready to implement a strategy I felt like a deer in the headlights. What helped me more than anything else was watching established traders wrestle with the intricacies that I found so confusing - in real time . Being a Monday morning quarterback is a cakewalk by comparison. It’s always been very easy for me to look at a chart in hindsight and point to what should have been done and why. However, being able to do that in real time is where the boys become men. Being able to do that in real time while having money on the line is where men become pros. In this vein I have always done my best to be as thorough with my thought processes as possible while analysing the Bitcoin chart on a daily basis. I have also done my best to be fully transparent with my positions and decision making. Now I have decided to take it to the next level by starting the 2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge! I intend to return 1,000% through trading on margin over the next six months (or less). The reason that I believe that is realistic is because I have done it before and I have done it exclusively trading crypto in the 2018 bear market (March to August). My motivation for making this challenge public is rather straightforward: First of all I know that I would not have ever become a profitable trader without getting the luxury of watching others trade in real time. Furthermore, I know that many got completely rekt throughout this bear market and some may be feeling very discouraged at this point. This challenge is intended to be proof-of-work, not only of my abilities but of Tyler Jenks’ Consensio and of technical analysis as a whole. If I can implement an objective strategy and return 1,000% in less than 6 months then you can do it too! I share my entire trading strategy and process (completely for free) so there really is nothing stopping you other than yourself. The strategy and process are very objective and therefore very repeatable. Very little discretion is required once one understands Consensio (will take much longer than you expect). In my experience one of the main factors that holds back new traders is swinging for the fences with every trade. Trying to find that one position that is going to lead to life changing money. That is a loser mentality and it is impossible to consistently win with that thought process. Focus on batting average, do not focus on hitting home runs. If you are able to patiently grind it out on your leather ass, à la Knish in Rounders, then this might be a game you can beat! If you are like myself then you are probably thinking something along the lines of: “this sounds way too good to be true.” If that is your conclusion then you are mostly right. I do not intend to share this information free of charge after the challenge is complete. I intend for this to be a jumping off point for a private group and / or website. I am giving this all away to gain a following. Once I do then I will be moving my operation elsewhere and looking for opportunities to capitalize. So if you are reading this and the challenge is not finished then you are in luck! Take full advantage of this opportunity and commit to learning how to consistently beat every market whether it be bull, bear, flat, parabolic crypto, stocks, commodities or forex! Starting today I have a 2 BTC bankroll and I am not in any positions. I will make a daily post, or as close to it as I possibly can, to share the results of every single trade in real time. The Bitcoin Daily Update will remain and the Trading Challenge will be little more than a ledger of my positions and results.

Comprehensive Trading Process Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock

Comprehensive Trading Process Before Entering Start the by writing down predictions for what I expect to happen before the end of the day. 1 day | 1 week | 1 month predictions: Make projections for what is expected to happen during the listed time frames Previous analysis/position: Review yesterday’s analysis to remember what your thought process was Patterns: Established patterns outweigh other indications Horizontal support and resistance: Horizontals are most important when no pattern or trend is present. Remember that prices range 70% - 80% of the time BTCUSDSHORTS: Analyze the trading view chart with patterns, support/resistance, trendlines and indicators. Do not short when short sellers are at or near ATH’ levels. This is when you are very likely to get squeezed out of the position. Then check the long:short ratio. 60% long:40% short indicates a good balance for a move to the upside. If it gets to 65%+ on either side then a squeeze is expected Funding Rates: If it gets too expensive to fund a long or short then the price is likely to react accordingly 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Check for crossovers and know how far away the price can get, historically speaking, from the EMA’s. This will help identify oversold/overbought conditions 50 & 128 MA’s: Same as above FIB’s: Very important for identifying major levels of support and resistance Candlestick analysis: Learn more here Ichimoku Cloud: Here is a great resource' if you would like to learn more TD’ Sequential: Here and here are great resources Visible Range: Volume = resistance or support. This indicates where the major volume has occurred and is very useful in identifying major s/r BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: Calculate price change over the following periods: 12h, 24h, 1w, 2w, 1m. This will help to identify being overbought or oversold Bollinger Bands: Very useful in ranging markets. Super squeezes indicate upcoming volatility Trendline: Very useful in identifying support and resistance as well as reversal when the trend breaks Daily Trend: Not necessary, but I like to know what the market is doing right now Fractals: Very useful in setting stop losses. Up fractals should not be broken in a bear market and down fractals should not be broken in a bull market On Balance Volume: Helps identify what the ‘big money’ is doing. Pay close attention to divergences ADX: Helps to identify if there is a trend and how strong it is. If -DI > +DI then bearish. If -DI < + DI then bullish. If ADX < 20 then ranging market. If ADX > 25 then trending market Chaikin Money Flow: Use it the same as the OBV RSI (30 setting): Used to identify tops in parabolic markets, according to parabolic burst theory Stoch: Can provide good signals, although I find it rare. Nevertheless the Stoch on the 3d has predicted price movements very well in the 2018 BTC' bear market End with reviewing predictions and making a summary. After entering Managing stop losses and avoided greed is all that remains. Stop Losses Are set slightly under the prior low (if long) and slightly above the prior high (if short). This will usually be illustrated by William's Fractals. For each open position go through the following process on a daily basis. SPX: New low established with down fractals at $2,800. Just broke up fractal and established new high. Adjust stop to $2,794 BTC: Has not established a new lower high or up fractal. Stop remains above prior high

Case Study for Mismanaging a Disciplined Trade Strategy In the most recent BTCUSD dip I made a series of mistakes that put me in a slightly nervous position overall, but still generally favorable. Over a series of trades I managed to find myself in a position with an average buy price of $7486.13. Trading profitably on the dips I reduced this average buy price to $7348.21. Throughout this series of trades I had multiple opportunities to take profit and this discussion will focus on trading psychology and process failure. Early in my trading session I had managed to identify successfully entry levels that were reasonably close to where I could make a "dip" profit. Generally my target is around 2%. Given the big dip from $9.2k to below $8k and given the duration and recovery of that dip from $10k I felt confident that the market was oversold and all of the order book charts indicated an overall strong buying to selling ratio. My price target was just below $8.5k and on the first move up it hit $8.4k and I felt like there would be an orderly move over time. What I learned with this recent price action was that trading bots and whales/funds that control them have disproportionate leverage over price action. Not being fully aware of their techniques, I decided against adjusting my price target and I was "too greedy" and completely missed my profit opportunity after being presented double my normal target over two periods. Now having missed that opportunity I was forced to double down knowing that the next price move would likely be much bigger and deeper. Trading for profit on the way down I was able to recoup some of poor positioning but again, I did not quite understand the techniques of these algo bots until near the end when I was able to make an adjustment to how I choose price targets to better compensate for whale/shark algo bots. Setting price targets for exiting my position and reducing my risk came down to three possible outcomes: 1) Sell ALL at a higher price that would make profit but also leave me no room for error if I missed at $7800. This price level would have still been poor risk/reward overall so this exit strategy seemed like a mistake. 2) Sell ~half (47%) of my position at a profit at $7400 and then sell the other half at $8000 for "break even" on that part of the trade. This seemed like a prudent risk management strategy as I would have funds to take additional profit if the market moved back down while leaving in place a position that could become profitable over a longer duration. 3) Sell ALL at the higher price target that would give me a much bigger target but leave me open to poor risk management again. This was definitely the worst option. So I chose 2) which worked ok in that the first trade target was hit as expected. Then, while watching the order book I started to worry because there were big sell walls below $7500. I thought about how stressful it would be to ride that position back through another big dip and because of fatigue also overly focused on this possibility rather than going back to my pre-defined strategy of hodling for $8k on half and trading with the other half. Clearly, stress causes one to adopt a risk averse mental state. And this kind of risk aversion usually leads to the panic selling and "weak hands" phenomenon of selling at exactly the WRONG time, i.e. when you should be thinking about buying. So when I saw the price being challenged at $7k to $7.1k with very clear algo bot action pushing the price in both directions with very light buy order positioning I became a pawn in this algo bot action and decided to exit early and go take a nap rather than have to sit through another big dip with half of my fund at risk. Rather than see any huge sell wall the sell-side volume relented and the price nearly hit my price target of $7.9k. If I had been more disciplined I could have set a contingency (less greedy) target below $8k but I changed my plan using no particular reasoning whatsoever other than fear of these algo bots.

EURUSD SHORT Going into formation

USDJPY / 4HR / TCT + BAT PATTERN (Please Read...)Hello Traders, hope you're having a great day today. Looking at the USDJPY today, I've recently closed my long position I took yesterday. I had a couple of things lining up that made the current Trade invalid. Yes, you are absolutely right in the way that you're thinking. This Trade could potentially explode to the upside and hit, what could have been, Target 1 and Target 2. But I do not want to get caught in the bind of woulda coulda shoulda in my Trading. I have closed my current Trade because my analysis has become invalid. What the market does from here on out is none of my concern with the previous Trade that I took. Let's keep it simple to follow with the IF = THEN Syntax. IF = CLOSED TRADE THEN = LOOK FOR ONE GOOD TRADE Meaning that, once the Trade has been closed, we wipe that from our Hard drive we like to call, the mind. Now I'm looking for my next opportunity on this pair with a long position to the upside with a TCT, or a short position with a sell @ 113.450 Bat. Thank you for your time in reading my thought process on this pair. Be safe, enjoy life, Phil PAIR: USD/JPY TTF: 4HR TRADE: TCT + BAT PATTERN NOTE: These are potential Trade opportunities based on my own personal Analysis. Thank you, Star Prosper Philip Stewart