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GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSBOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY unsurprisingly outperforming (implied vol adjusted) given USD weakness, and trading through the 133 handle (132.3 now targeted) whilst cable traded abit more firmly bid struggling to even test the 1.308 pivot, let alone break it - i think we will see a 1.308 key support break tomorrow if NFP comes in hit or beat and I am now waiting for this (gbpjpy shorts closed). BOE Monetary Policy Decision Highlights: BOE Aug Minutes: 0 Members Voted to Increase Rate DJ News BOE: Six Members Voted To Expand QE Program, Three Against BOE: Forbes, Weale And McCafferty Voted Against Expansion Of QE BOE: QE Dissenters Saw Risk That Recent Surveys Overstate Economic Weakness DJ News BOE: Eight Members Voted To Launch Corporate Bond Buys, Forbes Dissented DJ News BOE: Forbes Concerned By Excessive Stimulus, Risks Of Corporate Debt BOE: All Members Voted In Favor Of Term Funding Program BOE: Majority Of MPC Members Expect To Vote For Further Rate Cut 0 BOE: MPC Members See Lower Bound For Bank Rate "Close To, A Little Above" Zero BOE Aug Minutes: MPC Voted 9-0 To Lower Bank Rate To 0.25% BOE Aug Minutes: 0 Voted to Keep Rate Unchanged BOE Aug Minutes: 9 Members Voted to Lower Rate BOE Signals MPC Not Contemplating A Move To Negative Interest Rate BOE: Economic Outlook "Has Weakened Markedly" Following Brexit Vote BOE Makes Largest Cut In Economic Growth Forecast Since 1993 BOE Cuts 2017 Economic Growth Forecast To 0.8% From 2.3% In May BOE Cuts 2018 Economic Growth Forecast To 1.8% From 2.3% In May BOE Sees Declines In Business Investment During 2017 And 2018 BOE Sees Business Investment Down 3.75% In 2016 Versus 2.5% Growth In May BOE Sees Business Investment Down 2% In 2017 Versus 7.25% Growth In May BOE Sees Housing Investment Up 1.25% In 2016 Versus 4% In May BOE Sees Housing Investment Down 4.75% In 2017 Versus 5.25% Growth In May BOE Sees Pickup In Inflation On Weaker Pound BOE Sees Inflation At 2.1% In 2017, 2.4% In 2018 BOE: Measures Ensure Inflation Won't Fall Below Target In Medium Term UK Hammond: Prepared To Take Needed Steps To Support Economy BOE Expands Program Of Government Bond Purchases By GBP60 Bln BOE Purchases Of Government Bonds Will Take Six Months To Complete BOE Government Bond Buys Will Take Total To GBP435 Bln From BGP375 Billion BOE Last Expanded Stock Of Government Bond Buys In November 2012 BOE Launches New Program of GBP10 Billion In Corporate Bond Buys BOE Purchases Of Corporate Bonds Will Take 18 Months to Complete BOE Will Buy Non-Financial, Investment Grade Bonds BOE: Issuers Of Corporate Bonds Must Make "Material Contribution" To UK Economy BOE Approves Term Funding Scheme To Provide Loans To Lenders BOE Loans To Banks, Building Societies At "Close To" Bank Rate BOE TFS Intended To Ensure Cut In key Rate Passed On To Businesses, Households BOE MPC Sees Room To Expand all Four Stimulus Measures BOE Govenor Mark Carney et al. Speech Highlights: BOE Carney: UK Has One Of Most Flexible Economies BOE Carney: Can't Fully Offset Economic Impact Of Brexit BOE Carney: Package Of Stimulus Measures Is "Exceptional" BOE Carney: By Acting Early Can Reduce Uncertainty, Bolster Confidence BOE Carney: GBP Fall Will Boost Exports, Reduce Imports BOE Carney: MPC Has Been "Conservative" In New Growth Forecasts BOE Carney: Package Ensures Stimulus Will Have Maxium Impact
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
SHORT EURUSD: ECB MEMBER NOWOTNY + DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC REVISIONSECB nowotny reiterated senior member official sentiments regarding the situation with Italian banks unsurprisingly saying people "Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks". He also hawkish said that the Brexit impact forecasted on the EUROZONE economy would be less than the IMF forecasts. Perhaps the most important sentiment though was that regarding the ECB's APP which is due to end in March 2017 saying "Future path of QE decision to be made in Q4" and "Still open to whether to phase QE purchases out or not" - providing little inferences whether the ECB expects to extend or end their APP. However, one would think, unless the underlying inflation trend was to pick up, certainly there would be an extension/ phase out of QE. A source from social media reported on the matter with more conviction and to the hawkish side saying "Reports Said To See No Current Urgency For QE Action In September". Nowotny playing his cards close to his chest regarding the future ECB QE path is unsurprising, however, the Social Media Report claims are a little more worrying given they somewhat write off fresh QE action for the ECB's september meeting - something which many banks/ consensus thought would be the case, given the persistently low Euro inflation and hints from ECB minutes/ Draghi that maturity extension would be likely at the September meeting. However, the authenticity/ reliability of the reports has to be considered given the source is social media. On a more certain note the ECB Polled forecasters posted dovish/ EUR bearish economic outlook figures for EUR, downgrading GDP and inflation readings for 2017 and 18, with 2016 staying unchanged . Trading strategy: 1. This personally doesnt change my material medium-term short EUR$ 1.1100 trade as the macro headwinds/ future headwinds described in previous posts still go unpriced. Though the short view is weakened slightly IF the above "no QE extension" is true since some of the future EUR$ downside was based on further ECB easing. Though all of which is just speculation, and without any conviction from officials, waiting for the September decision itself seems the smartest thing to do continuing short - especially as forecasted GDP/ Inflation figures have been reduced which is bearish for the EUR and as the USD leg of the trade continues to strengthen as rate hike expectations continue to increase in this risk-on market with Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trading at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nove and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen until the end of the day. ECB Member Nowotny Comments: -ECB's Member Nowotny: "In principle decision from 2nd June not to employ new monetary tools remains true, new uncertainties have emerged." -ECB's Member Nowotny: Still open on whether QE will be phased out gradually or not -ECB's Member Nowotny: Future path Decision on QE to be made in Q4 -ECB's Member Nowotny: EZ 2017 Inflation Seen Over 1%, Sees No Acute Danger Of Deflation -ECB's Nowotny: BREXIT Effect on Eurozone GDP expected to be less than IMF forecast -ECB's Nowotny: Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks ECB Polled Forecasters: -ECB: Polled Forecasters See Eurozone 2016 HICP at 0.3%, Matching Previous Quarter -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 HICP at 1.2%, vs 1.3% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 HICP at 1.5% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2016 GDP Growth at 1.5%, Matching Previous Qtr -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 GDP Growth at 1.4% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 GDP Growth at 1.6% vs 1.7% Seen in 2Q -ECB: 55% Of Respondents Included Estimate of UK Referendum Impact in Forecasts *See attached posts for more EUR$ downside fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
FTSE100 - POSSIBLE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WEEKLYToday, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said a rate cut is needed after the Brexit vote and hinted that it could come as soon as this summer! This news got the FTSE and the DAX flying up to nearly 300 points. Also, the Feds stated this week that they may cut rates this summer as well, possibly even this month (July) so that is really great news for global indices. However, with the political uncertainty in Europe and UK, it wont be a sure bet! I believe the UK and European stocks will suffer later this year due to Brexit after shocks. I still expect more downside for FTSE100 and pound in particular but after today's news I think the markets will rally up first, ftse back near its all time high around 7100. On the Weekly chart, I have identified a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern that has already broken the neckline today. We have the 200 MA support around 6460 and also our neckline support around 6400. In this case, our entry would be around 6460-6500 with stop loss below 6370 with a potential target of 7100.
FX:UK100
by Sagefx
1
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADEGBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too low for the brexit vote. On the back of this I expect the following for GU this week: 1. I have a 8/10 short conviction on GU and ultimately believe it will trade <1.30 by weeks end for the following reasons: - - As on friday, the bearish movements we saw on GBP were 90% fast money trades and NOT real/ slow money positioning (due to different regulations and trading strategies) therefore, this week, slow/ real money will now be able to get behind the short sterling move thus providing momentum for GBP to move lower and sub 1.30. *Fast money is hedge funds and slow money is asset managers* - David Cameron UK PM also resigned following the result, thus putting further downside expectations on GBP in the near-medium term particularly as it as all come at once. - Also the BOE plans to increase its QE by 66% 350bn to 600bn to support markets but this printing increasing GBP money supply affect puts downward pressure on the GBPUSD. - Further, members of the European parliament have asked and put pressure on the UK to make their exit faster than previously expected, this puts further uncertainty around the brexit and increases the negative impact it may have on the economy and therefore the GBP speculation is made further bearish. - As pictured I had expected the 1.356-1.382 range that had held at the end of last week to hold for the next 24hrs and for GU to trade relatively flat (24hrs for people to make decisions on positioning) however it looks like corporations and other entities have derisked their GBP exposure over the weekend hence we opened 300pips lower at 1.342. - With this range broken we now trade in no mans land, thus with all the negative biases my target from now is for GU to drift towards the lows set from last week for now - If the market changes significantly within the next few hours (e.g. trades back into range) i will update this view. - My target for GBP is <1.30 with a terminal value of 1.25 within the quarter - though i consider that the supportive (no hike) policy of the FOMC will ease GBPUSD losses somewhat. This in mind shorts at these levels are fair 1.34. Alternatively, I also encourage my favourite tactic of shorting/ fading any GBP rallies to 1.38/39 however the chance of GU realising such upside imo is only 50%, with bid trading dominating Volatility update: Current GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 25%, which is surprisingly 2x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 30%, significantly higher than last week also. However 1ms trade 20.49% and are significantly lower than they were last week (illustrating the event risk that has elapsed). Current GU Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 27.5% vs calls 22.5% thus puts are in demand by about 20% more than calls - this supports current short views (RR -5). 1wk GU demand is also skewed in favour of downside coverage, with puts at 33% vs calls 28%, (RR -5%) with puts being demanded apprx 3% more than calls - supporting the near terms view of short GU USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending: The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure. The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over. In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend) The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining). We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur. MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur. If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us. As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
1
Dax: Interesting time at mode signalsI'm monitoring the progress in the Dax index's uptrend currently in place. Price action has became turbulent recently, forming a large triangle, but it's possible to see an interesting resolution to this situation soon. The time at mode signals on chart imply a potential advance is due, if we get confirmation with a day opening and closing above the 9780 without retesting this level. The first vertical line is the time expiration of the first uptrend, and it might an important date, so take heed of it. Implications are bearish, based on the RgMov indicator's trend, and the price action, with distribution coming in at these levels. Once we get a safe entry, I'll update the chart. For the time being, let's watch the next daily candle on close. It's possible that the short side offers a more significant move, and since it appears like the Euro is due to rally higher still. If 10249 isn't reached by March 25th, on close or earlier, price will probably seek a retest of the uptrend mode support. In case we do rally, pay attention to the upper time and price targets. Best regards, Ivan Labrie.
FX:GER30Short
by IvanLabrie
Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies. Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire. As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable. The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460. In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December. What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line. In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY, I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out. However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
HUGE SELL OFF SELL SELL SELL !!! (ECB NEWS)So as most of you already know it is March The 10Th Which is the date where The ECB come out and speak about Monetary easing, Inflation and Rate cut What am i expecting ? Well as a mainly technical trader it is in my job description as a full time trader to look at Both technical and fundamental in the market. After heavy research into the Fundamental side of things i Believe They will launch a round of Monetary easing or Deploy a Rate cut Why do i think this ? Well Firstly We all have to look at the bigger picture how is the economy doing ? Not so good Top two economies are declining (US and Chinese) In regards to the EUROZONE it is looking even worse especially as many of the countries in the EU need bailouts and are suffering from current economic situations E.G. Greece Italy Ireland All of which are in the euro and are in great trouble Anyways many Investors predict a huge sell of for the Euro as many believe they may be willing to bring out the big News and expand its aggressive quantitative-easing program, introduce a two-tiered deposit system and offer cheap loans to banks. If so then expect a huge decline in the Euros currency as There is a huge imbalance in the Euro at the moment The question why are the ECB doing this well they are taking any drastic measurer to boost eurozone economy and like the ECB boss, Mario Draghi who said the central bank was “ready to do its part” to boost growth and inflation. Fading growth and inflation prospects will force the European Central Bank to review its policy stance And make a change to hellp its growth which of course is its main problem inflation prospects have turned for the worse, raising a credibility issue for a bank that has undershot inflation for three straight years. Which is a big worry So when you put all these factors in based of Fundamentals what does it mean well really nothing until draghi comes out and says it himself and launches Monetary easing or Rate cut's But if they do decide to go ahead with it expect a huge sell of :) For all EURO pairs What do i See based on Technicals ? Well a good thing that supports the sell of is we are below a key level of 1.1000 which is also a nice round number physiological Levels ;) Also after the big rally In February we have almost completely corrected ourself which many traders didn't believe would happen as many thought we would break the consolidation zone we have been stuck in after such a nice bullish move But once again with the EUR/USD price is undecided We seem to be bounce of our key level which also helps in a bias to the downside Anyways This is my view on the EurUsd trade safe guys News is very unpredictable expect the worse and i hope i didnt bore you to much lol Thanks for reading happy trading lets make some pips !
Short
by ARFXC
34
EURJPY Intraday TechnicalsThe yen has severely weakened during the Asian session as the Nikkei tries to play catch up with the large, volumeless pullback continuation in SPX. Intraday technicals are indicating that the pair is at a tipping point. A break of the minor downward trend line would signal further continuation, potentially to 125.10 (pending clearance from the 72-4H EMA). Although, the pair may remain volatile. If the euro continues to ease south on expectations that the European Central Bank will further ease, and risk sentiment wanes, the pair could trend lower. However, if traders continues to push risk assets higher, subsequently crushing the yen, even further euro weakness may not stop more upward pressure. A divergence in price action and the relative strength index could be signaling price turnover. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move. Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing? Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities. Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession). Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. See that here ! Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start. If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable. However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place: A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078. This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index. 17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels . Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless. Will you get a chair when the music stops? Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
6
BUY EURUSDGood day dear investors and fellow traders. Fundamentally - technical analysis of the currency pair #EURUSD "The ECB is planning a new intervention, prepares us for the reduction of the single currency, but is there any ammo?" The single European currency continued to decline, currently has departed from its high at 360 points, having one of the three main lines of support. All the fault proved to be the head of the ECB who promised in the event of the need to increase incentives. However, if there is such an opportunity for Mr. Draghi? Recall that the last time, when the Central Bank went to extra incentives (reduced deposit rate) euro only strengthened. What can offer the market the ECB? - The increase in the program of quantitative easing (QE), may increase the monthly purchases of bonds and ABS / extend the life of the QE program. This program creates several risks such as: 1) Compression of liquidity on bond markets and shaky stability. 2) Reducing the rate of bond creates negative consequences for the banking sector. 3) Too long program of quantitative easing may be problematic to make out of it. - Reduction of the deposit rate, we have observed this mistake last time, so the chance that the ECB will do it again is extremely unlikely. If Mario Draghi will make this mistake, the euro once again waiting for takeoff, as market participants expect a large-scale action by the ECB. - Resumption of LTRO program, that's the idea, while reducing the deposit rate is the ideal solution for the ECB. Thus Mario Draghi would distribute loans in the euro area and not be afraid that the banks will take the Lombard loans and take the money from the ECB. We believe that this strategy would be the most best as a risk that the banks will no longer invest in stocks, too high volatility and instability. Investing in government bonds is not eliminated, but again it is money napryavyatsya weak economy periphery, so that it is necessary the ECB. And many will want to lend to the real sector, because the selection has not left much. We remain bulls for the single currency and despite the fact that we prefer to purchase, we always warn you about turns. Current stabilization of an important psychological mark of the euro gives strength for further growth. speak and fundamental factors in favor of growth: - A strong balance of payments. - A large trade surplus. - The inflow of portfolio investment. - Reduction of net speculative positions on the euro. Purchases will be made on 3 levels, the stop is not provided due to the small volumes of purchases and the Japanese yen. Technical comment: The single European currency continues to trade in an upward range on the daily chart and konsalidatsionnom range on the weekly chart. The main resistance is located at the bottom before rising channel. Shopping is recommended from: 1.1000 / 1.1120 Sales should be considered from: 1.1400 CFTC: These continue to please the bulls on the euro, this time traders reduced their positions before - 48.2 k, which is a reflection of the positive mood of market participants to the single European currency. vk - vk.com mql : www.mql5.com face book : www.facebook.com
Long
by Wermelgion
EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB MeetingThe Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold). With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention. Traders are not pricing in any significant change in monetary policy from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position. Price action is stagnating within a demand zone, and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go). I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the demand zone. If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860. If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Update status
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated: Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177. Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240. What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support. This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession. Way to go, Janet! Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
Will the BoJ Increase QE In Two Weeks? Doesn't Matter.With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko " Kamikaze " Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in. Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP, was seen as a policy error even quicker than the Fed's first rate hike in seven years. Economists, bulls and bears alike, said that NIRP would do absolutely nothing for the Japanese economy. But, Kuroda didn't go from no NIRP to NIRP in a week's time to strengthen the economy. It was to deter yen strength and perk up hemorrhaging risk assets, which failed miserably. If inflation data comes in soft, we are likely to hear the threat of quantitative easing but it is unlikely that the BoJ can match the most bang for the yen traders saw when this whole quasi-policy began. Analysts expect that Kuroda may increase the level of exchange-traded funds, a market where the BoJ already owns 52 percent , since there is virtually no more debt to purchase do to existing quantitative easing measures. It's possible, but does not matter in the end. The global marco downturn is in the drivers seat, and a single central bank cannot change that, especially when $12.3 trillion in QE and 600-plus rate cuts since the financial crisis have barely kept the global economy spuddering along. With global trade continuing to collapse, the weak yen facade is crumbling. January's exports fell a whopping 12.9 percent and imports dropping 18 percent. GDP contracted 1.5 percent in 2015 on an annual basis, and Japan has seen three recessions since PM Shinzo Abe took over in 2012. External debt and the BoJ balance sheet hit all-time highs (unlike the Nikkei) . Those nickel-and-diming headlines - be careful. As we've seen in February alone, the actions of the BoJ erased nearly eight months of gains. Do macro, or macro will do you HARD. I reiterate a target of 110 by Q3 and 105 by early-2017. That will likely be for starters if the US falls into recession, as forecasted . Potential pullbacks to 114.55 and 116 on central bank induced risk taking probable. The problem with this crusade for inflation, and this goes for all central banks, by reckless measures is fiscal calamity will arise when inflation takes hold. Rates will have to increase, and debt will not be payable. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Something's stirring in the gold marketA break above 1180 could signal the end of the secular bear market within the larger bull market of gold, as for the first time gold made a higher high price since it fell from a peak of 1900. Current price action is considerately overbought, but every dip was bought up given the fear and global macro. Next few days we might potentially see Dollar correcting by at least 3% and this will be the catalyst of a 'higher-high' in Gold vs USD ratio. Yes I'm aware, analysis such as Harry Dent is calling for $700 gold. I'm unconvinced. Deflation is the trend in the global economy and gold is an inflation hedge. So why would gold go up when the global economy is deflating? Link: economyandmarkets.com Simple, central banks all around the world are stuck. In the midst of a market crash and interest rate were still at 0%, not even QE is having any significant impact in countries like Japan and Europe. Markets are in untested water! They have no other gunpowder to stimulate the economy right now. Historically gold rallies in times of a rising interest rate since it is an inflationary hedge, and interest rate rises because the economy is heating up. Market expectations are changing. From a strong dollar as a result of Janet Yellen not wanting to lose her confidence by rising rates, to macro fears about the global economy. People will be expecting rates to be dropped, or even negative in the following months. What if the interest rate were to be negative if Central Banks run out of options? What if more QE was done? Why would anyone still want to keep their money in insolvent banks and be charged at a monthly fee? Gold isn't just a commodity, it is also a form of money beyond the control of any entity like Bitcoin. The correlation impact of the economy to gold will be pretty insignificant, considering the bigger picture as a hedge against a risk. Some other factors includes only 73,000 ounce of gold remaining in the vaults of COMEX as of 2nd Feb 2016. 542 ounce of paper gold owner backed by just 1 ounce of physical gold. What if these people starts asking for their gold back with the paper contracts they bought? You can expect a default ahead in the exchange just like the infamous bitcoin exchange, MtGox. It is simply an accident waiting to happen! Mike Maloney: www.youtube.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by LastBattle
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