USDJPY 2H Analysis : Trendline Break or Double the Supply?🧠 Market Context:
The market has recently undergone a liquidity grab followed by a temporary bullish reaction, indicating that large players (institutions or market makers) are manipulating price around sensitive zones before committing to a direction.
🧱 Key Technical Zones & Observations:
🟩 1. Liquidity Filled Zone (Smart Money Move)
Location: Around July 17.
Explanation: Price dropped impulsively into a pre-marked liquidity pocket. This filled buy-side liquidity resting below previous lows.
Implication: Smart money has now captured trapped breakout sellers. Expectation of reversal or bullish mitigation.
🟧 2. Central Zone (Supply/Distribution Area)
This zone was tested multiple times, signaling it as a supply-rich region.
Acted as a base for previous strong bearish move.
If the trendline is broken, price may retest this Central Zone, potentially acting as resistance again.
🟩 3. QFL Formation (Quantity Following Line)
Nature: Base breakout with a fast snap-back indicates institutional demand.
The structure signals a failed breakdown or liquidation trap.
Actionable Insight: Strong bounce potential here, ideal for sniper long entries if market structure shifts bullish.
🟦 4. Trendline (Critical Validation Tool)
The descending trendline from July 18 has acted as dynamic resistance.
Multiple rejections validate its significance.
Main Conditional Setup hinges on this trendline:
Break = Bullish structure shift
No break = Trend continuation (retest of demand or breakdown)
🔁 5. Previous Reversal Completed
Price action has printed a reversal model (possibly Wyckoff-style accumulation or spring).
Completion of the pattern aligns with upcoming directional decision.
✅ Conditional Trade Scenarios:
🔺 Condition 1: Bullish Breakout Above Trendline
Setup: Price breaks and closes above the trendline with volume and momentum.
Action: Buy on retest of broken trendline or confirmation candle.
Targets:
Short-term: 147.50
Major: 148.00 – strong resistance/supply zone
Validation: Structure shift + momentum + rejection of prior supply.
🔻 Condition 2: Rejection from Trendline (Trendline Holds)
Setup: Price respects the trendline and fails to break.
Action: Short on bearish engulfing/rejection.
Plan: "Double the supply zone" as per your label.
Targets: 146.20 → 146.00 zone
This respects the previous price memory and liquidity void.
🧠 Deeper MMC Insight:
The market is in indecision phase, balancing between continuation and reversal.
Institutional footprints (QFL + liquidity fills + trendline rejections) suggest preparation for a trap-spring-accumulate or distribution-breakdown move.
Watch for fakeouts around the trendline – MMC logic says market makers often induce both directions before committing.
🧭 Trade Management Tips:
If long: Protect below the QFL base.
If short: Watch for manipulation around the Central Zone.
Wait for confirmation: Don’t pre-enter before structure validates direction.
