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Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Britain & US "race to the top” eventfull countryThe Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson suspended UK Parliament unlawfully. Also, Johnson gave the Queen illegal advice to suspend Parliament. On the one hand, the news is not good for the pound, because it means another domestic political crisis, on the other hand, such a court decision should lead to Johnson's resignation. The pound has recently followed the rule "what is bad for Johnson, good for the pound." So from this point of view, yesterday's pound growth just looks very logical. The weakening of Johnson’s position means a chances decrease of a “hard” Brexit. For the pound, of course, the news is exceptionally positive. So we will continue to observe with interest the chaos in Britain, but at the same time, our recommendation to “buy a pound” does not lose its relevance. However, you need to be careful. It is worth noting buyers activation of the euro against the statistics background from Germany. Indices of economic expectations from the IFO came out better than expected at fairly good marks. However, it is still too early to rejoice. Rather, this growth provides an opportunity for euro sales at relatively good prices. Yesterday the US dollar was under pressure in the afternoon. Weak consumer confidence data is the reason for that. Conference Board consumer confidence index showed a value of 125.1 with a forecast of 133.0 in September. Our recommendation on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for the dollar sale. Moreover, the scandal surrounding Trump Zelensky’s call seems to be gaining momentum. The chances are low, but buying a dollar against such a background is still extremely dangerous, especially considering its current prices. Yesterday, the markets were reassured by the news that China guaranteed the American soybeans purchase at no additional cost. What can be seen as a kind of positive signal on the eve of the main meeting between the US and China next week. However, judging by the dynamics of gold, investors prefer to believe the facts. Accordingly, we do not observe serious threats to our recommendations to buy gold in the area of local daily lows. Moreover, Trump once again made it tenser. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he accused China of a good half of mortal sins. There are no major changes in the oil market so far. Fears of another hurricane in the United States, expectations of recovery in Saudi production, as well as developments around Iran. Well, in the meantime, oil prices follow in the direction we have indicated. Recall from last Tuesday, after an increase of 15% last Monday, we recommend selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Hurricane Dorian, Trump's new tariffs & Brexit Queen approves PM`s plan. Parliament is to be suspended for five weeks ahead of 31 October, the day the UK is due to leave the EU that was perhaps, the main event. This event is unusual: the prime minister, who was not chosen, and the Queen, who was not chosen as well, blocked the work of epy supreme body, which directly selected by people and represents their interests. So we closely monitor event development in Britain. This week we will see the continuation of an exciting series from the UK. On Tuesday, parliament will return from the summer break and will work for only a week before suspending its work, according to the Queen’s decree. A hurricane of events that is what we all are waiting for. Events are becoming less predictable and ever larger in terms of consequences. One of the main victims, well, main beneficiaries, of course, will be the British pound. We will refrain from direct pound trading orders. However, we continue to believe in the triumph of common sense and a valuable exit, which will provoke the growth of the pound by hundreds or even thousands points. But taking into account how events are developing, it’s worth preparing for almost everything, including the classic divorce with “beating dishes”, the division of property and the courts. As for the other important events, another uncertainty in the trade war: the parties either want negotiations or not. But at the same time, the facts show that the war is going on and even intensifying. From now on, the United States introduces new tariffs on goods from China. Also, Extremely powerful, life-threatening Hurricane Dorian is gaining momentum and could potentially cause major damage in Florida. Tomorrow we will write in more detail how to make money on this natural phenomenon. In general, given how uncertain and worried the world is, this week we will continue to buy safe-haven assets. The week may well be difficult for the Australian and Canadian dollars: on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on the interest rate, and the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on Wednesday. Well, the publication of statistics on the US labor market will conclude more than an eventful week. Considering that before the FOMC decision is announced, it remains just a couple of weeks, the data on the NFP may well completely change everything. But we will talk about this in more detail during the week. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Johnson's insidious plan, US GDP and dollar’s reactionBoris Johnson asks Queen to suspend parliament. The decision will cut dramatically the time MPs will have to take action to prevent no-deal Brexit. he is going to ask the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks from mid-September. It seems like the Queen is ready to be in. And this means that the opposition will have time until September 12 to prevent the "no-deal" Brexit. The value of the pound has fallen by 1% following news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to suspend parliament The signal is more than alarming. Chances of the "no-deal" Brexit have increased dramatically. And this means that you need to be careful. Now we consider such pound descents of 150 points as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. But with stops. Once again, we note that events are developing against the pound, for now. Data on US GDP for the second quarter will be the main event. Experts expect a slight downward revision. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 2 %. Our expectations are more pessimistic. The fact is that the global economy as a whole and individual countries are increasingly showing signs of a slowdown. Very indicative is the data on German GDP, which, recall, showed a decrease in the second quarter. And most importantly, the decrease was due to the slow negative dynamics of exports. That is the direct evidence of the destructiveness of a trade war. There are reasons to expect further deterioration of the situation. Thus, we will not be surprised if the data is reviewed for the worse, but not by 0.1%, but more for example 1.5%. That will shock markets and the dollar will inevitably suffer. Moreover, the dollar will be under double pressure: the reaction to weak economic data will be multiplied by the growth of confidence in the Fed rate cut in September. So today we will sell the dollar across almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2