BNBUSDT Short position in updated levelsBNBUSDT is still interacting with the neckline and is about reach the peak of this reaction @ 88.6% Fibonacci retracement key level for adding to shorts.
Reactionarywave
Unfolding Bear Pattern: Measured Move Incoming? CrashingPattern reminiscent of the Christmas Crash 2018. Although seasonality usually favors price in April this was the Cruelest month ever.
Dec was an unseasonal bear four years ago, a crash can happen at any time. Worst selloff since COVID today, more coming IMO.
This big selloff day is unlikely to be followed by another, but anything is possible. The whole thing could just unwind next week.
But if the pattern repeats, a second, weaker and shorter rally to lower high may appear next week. Second failed rally MAY NOT appear.
Price can decline at any time but shorting from here is inadvisable considering oversold condition reaction rally likely. DYODD; GLTA!
Trend Reactionary Numbers Natural Contraction & ExpansionThrough trail and error and years of experimenting I discovered that Price movements determine FUTURE Price movements. Markets have a dominate tendency to exhibit support and resistance at price points defined by percentage increases and declines of past Peak to Trough movements and vice versa. I was able to approximate the ideal ratio values to determine these future points of support and resistance . These levels have become my propriety Trend Reactionary Numbers that through natural market movements need to be adjusted. You will ascertain with the help of my TRNS that market movements assemble themselves into a few conspicuous types of action that have a certain orderliness. This orderliness is the price expression of human nature, or market psychology it is where we get to watch what drives traders to do what they do. It is a picture of the most powerful human habits. The habits of Fear, Hope and Greed are all charted out for us to observe and take advantage of.
Trend Reactionary Numbers Natural Contraction & ExpansionThrough trail and error and years of experimenting I discovered that Price movements determine FUTURE Price movements. Markets have a dominate tendency to exhibit support and resistance at price points defined by percentage increases and declines of past Peak to Trough movements and vice versa. I was able to approximate the ideal ratio values to determine these future points of support and resistance . These levels have become my propriety Trend Reactionary Numbers that through natural market movements need to be adjusted. You will ascertain with the help of my TRNS that market movements assemble themselves into a few conspicuous types of action that have a certain orderliness. This orderliness is the price expression of human nature, or market psychology it is where we get to watch what drives traders to do what they do. It is a picture of the most powerful human habits. The habits of Fear, Hope and Greed are all charted out for us to observe and take advantage of.
Trend Reactionary Numbers Natural Contraction & ExpansionMY DAILY RANT :
As prices advance and decline the Market creates new important foot prints for astute traders to gain clues from. In my opinion the market is creating mini Waves that are at first random based on the two main factors of market traders personalities, Fear and Greed. When the market has expanded into new territory or reacted down into new territory the hourly, daily and weekly fluctuations are very difficult to forecast. This is where the masses lose capital. In the market the crowd is wrong 90% of the time because the majority of traders are following current price movements, those that followed earliest have the greatest chance to profit, however, they do not know when to escape and tend to lose the gains that were luckily attained {once again to emotions of Greed and Fear, a never ending vicious circle for the neophyte}. In short most traders do not like to think or study it is not an easy task. Thinking and Study require patience and effort. I once read a profound statement "Patience is not a virtue of the weak". That short statement helped me immensely, I was once guilty of all those market sins and more which I will detail in future posts. Now back to the task at hand, the explanation. My take on the market has evolved through my 30 years of active market participation, and one major {for me } paradigm shift occurred when I shifted away from the temporal use of Time. I realized that having a temporal Belief was creating confusion in slow or fast moving markets. Whenever you create confusion it produces frustration which creates non-adaptive behavior that gets you STUCK and that creates losses. I would bet that 99% of the traders that are reading this post if asked for their definitions of short, intermediate, and long term would respond in some sort of time factor. Many would say that short term is 3 days or less, Intermediate is 2 weeks and long term is monthly or some combination of those time factors. These widely used terms and definitions over time {no pun intended} did not serve me well. They may be appropriate for the non professional trader to describe how long he wishes to hold a position or to describe market movements as he understands them, but not for the professional. I had come to realize that due to increased volatility, speed of market news dissemination and Blog Factors {think Game Stop for example} market movements that in the past took weeks or months are now being completed in days or sometimes hours. I adopted different descriptions of short, intermediate, and long term to percentage price movements instead of specific time intervals. This one shift in beliefs allowed me to see mathematically how far a market moved and at what speed it was moving {based on the time factor}. It gave me an ability to realize an Intermediate move{for example} was happening very quickly and that alerted me to look for escape levels for profits or to cut a loser.
Consider These Percentages:
Ultra Short Term 1/2 % {.005} - 1.9%
Short Term 2% - 2.99%
Standard Term 3.0% - 3.99%
Medium Term 4%- 5.99%
Standard Medium Term 6% - 8.99%
Long Term 9% and above.
Through trail and error and years of experimenting I discovered that Price movements determine FUTURE Price movements. Markets have a dominate tendency to exhibit support and resistance at price points defined by percentage increases and declines of past Peak to Trough movements and vice versa. I was able to approximate the ideal ratio values to determine these future points of support and resistance. These levels have become my propriety Trend Reactionary Numbers that through natural market movements need to be adjusted. You will ascertain with the help of my TRNS that market movements assemble themselves into a few conspicuous types of action that have a certain orderliness. This orderliness is the price expression of human nature , or market psychology it is where we get to watch what drives traders to do what they do. It is a picture of the most powerful human habits. The habits of Fear, Hope and Greed are all charted out for us to observe and take advantage of.
Trend Reactionary Levels Trend Reactionary Numbers (TRNs) are powerful Support and Resistance Zones that will be respected by the Markets. These Numbers are the outcome of 30 years of Trading Experience with over 15+ years on Wall Street. I worked for Institutions like Deutsche Bank, BNA, CRT and DG Bank in New York.
They are calculated by a proprietary formula and other variables which result in Key Market Reversal Points. As the Price of the Financial Instrument Expands or Contracts the TRNs will be adjusted to the new exponential Average True Range.
Recent Price activity suggested two new reactionary levels of Resistance and Support reflected in the deeper red lines.
Trend Reactionary Levels Trend Reactionary Numbers (TRNs) are powerful Support and Resistance Zones that will be respected by the Markets. These Numbers are the outcome of 30 years of Trading Experience with over 15+ years on Wall Street. I worked for Institutions like Deutsche Bank, BNA, CRT and DG Bank in New York.
They are calculated by a proprietary formula and other variables which result in Key Market Reversal Points. As the Price of the Financial Instrument Expands or Contracts the TRNs will be adjusted to the new exponential Average True Range.
SPX Waterfall Cascade Targeting 2700Simple idea. Getting bounce EOD 2/28 with follow-thru in ES Futurz overnight, Asia improving in early trade.
Black Swan event seems less likely now with VIX forming shooting star on Friday. Massive volatility spike with extreme bearishness typical of bottoms.
Market internals on Friday (A/D, new ATH issues at only 4 on NYSE, etc) equal to 24 Dec 2018 minicrash. VIX will not likely get to 49 again on second sell, always calmer.
Highlighted under arrows notice the characteristic 'h' patterns of secondary sells after brief rallies to 0.382 - 0.50 Fibo.
Box with target price suggests target for secondary sell wave, could be a simple double bottom, or dig a little deeper to the lower TL.
Fib time on the movement is short, typically few days to a coupla weeks as shown. Might only lift for 2-3 days before secondary sell.
Should start a real bullish move in April through May, and a summer rally to ATH as projectged at 1.272; 1.618 is possible in a blowoff.
Is the Bull dead? Maybe not yet... ultimate ATH tar at the 1.272 Fibo above 3500... let's see, crazier things have happened here!
US 30 Inverted H&S suggest completed first wave in Primary CycleDetails in chart. The inverted Head & Shoulders is highlighted with cups, but you really can't miss the big red candles. Gonna get a huge bear flag from this, IMO.
Closed my shorts early, but never sorry to give the other guy the last dollar. Reactionary wave should appear within a few days rising from oversold condition.
IMO this rascal is gonna pop up hard from here and give us a hellacious bear market rally, following a washout low on Monday, shown by small arrow down, large arrow up.
Should rally until early September, when it again reaches overbought condition, provoking the next and larger down wave in a 5-wave Elliott impulsive negative trend.
The inverted H&S is crystal clear and strongly suggests we're in for a monster wave 2, like those power peaks we saw in November and December before the big break.
Credits to Hungry Hippo for a similar idea in which he better describes oversold and RSI, MFI, etc. Will NOT go straight down, folks!
Trade at your own risk, this isn't investment advice; GLTA!
US 30 IN ABC CORRECTION MINOR WAVE OF LARGER ZIGZAGUS 30 traded below Tuesday high of 25888, closing 98 points lower than 8/21 high, failing to confirm Sand P new alltime high on 8/24.
The zig-zag pattern is evident on chart. I marked this one as a more complex ABC structure as a 5 wave reaction (ABCDE) is evident in A wave.
Combined with bearish Gartley pattern confirmed 8/21, this latest rally attempt looks more like a B reactionary wave. Expect lower soon.
I wondered about this as puts I bought 8/21 above 25800 were still trading near my purchase price on 8/24, in spite of wild bullishness in Sand P, which was nice, but made me think;
"Hey why is Dow not keeping up and acts like stuck at 25800? Hmmm..."
This is a bear flag, resolving into final C wave soon. Will be pretty rough I'm afraid- be careful!
September is coming! Look out.
Good luck!
This is not investment advice it's just a fun post for education and ridicule. Enjoy!
US 30 Bear Flag near breakdown of complex ZigZag ABC PatternFor months I have struggled to make Elliott wave theory fit this Bear Flag rising channel but although 5 wave impulses appear within the channel, it is not itself a motive impulse, but rather, it is a complex, 7 or 9 multi-wave zig-zag flat corrective pattern "A-B-C". It also contains WXY components which we recently observed press index under 25000, as well as countertrend ABCDE reactionary 5 part wave and many other minuette and subminuette patterns, omitted here for clarity.
I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit.
It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend.
The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again.
Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves.
The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index.
The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because:
Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher.
Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break.
NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top.
Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
Dow reaction rally failure with engulfing bear candleGoing down further;
Not advice; just an observation. Good luck!
Tiny B wave short entry for the week SPXTrading at the top of Friday's decline all indexes slightly higher a tiny subminuette 12345 impulse is seen in the minute chart for SPX today, looks like near completion - cant say how high the up reaction will carry but I reckon short entry now is likely profitable.
Im not an investment advisor, this is not advice, its an observation for education only. Good luck!
SPX: Forming Minute Wave 2 or Reactive B WaveExpect possible brief reaction to Friday's selloff. If a Minute Wave 2 forms it would suggest a full and deeper corrective minor wave Y in my WXY pattern (omitted for clarity- see links below), with a 5 wave impulse.
Minor Wave WXY is part of larger intermediate wave 12345, now forming the intermediate wave 4, not shown, in turn part of larger primary corrective wave D since Jan break.
Alternative hypothesis: continued breakdown from Friday closing price is also quite possible (arrow down from triangle in chart), this scenario would suggest formation of a simpler ABC corrective countertrend wave.
Because of the complex and powerful actionary waves in July and early August, wave theory favors formation of a complex corrective impulse, but let's see what we get.
We will only know the true nature of the reactionary wave after the pattern unfolds. Watch for the pivots. Trying to profit from minute waves is risky and chancy.
As always my amateur analysis is for education and entertainment and does not constitute professional investment advice. Good luck!
Dow Double Top Signal: at or near pivot in reaction waveBestimate projection for Dow going into August, tied with October for weakest month of the year.
Coming off a strong rally in July, odds favor more volatility.
Dow appears to be in a corrective, reactionary wave cycle: 'A' wave from first top 07/26 ran down to the flash crash Thursday 08/02 (Label 'W' of WXY reaction).
Notice labels for larger primary trend are ABCDE, so I used WXY for the reaction and 12345 for the minor wave cycles.
B wave of surprising strength carried index up to the 0.786 Fibonacci retrace (label 'X'). A complete 5 wave impulse in this reaction wave is apparent (labeled; 2-hr chart).
Dow banged on ceiling at 25500+ but pushed back, expect at least one retest. To continue the 3rd primary wave from here would require advance to higher high of > 25650 to meet top of rising channel; if index fails to retest channel, then this second high becomes part of a reactionary wave, rather than an actionary continuation of the primary.
Expect C wave (Labeled 'Y') to be shallow (Elliott alternating principle); bullish exuberance returns to the markets, buying the dips is back in fashion.
A .382 retrace would carry back to 24982; a 0.50 to 24794. A 0.618 to 24606 is quite possible, if anxiety returns to world markets.
Time frame for wave C: 5-10 sessions.
Very nice analysis at this link presenting two alternate ending plots:
www.scienceinvesting.com
Comments are welcome; Good luck traders!
Probably at or near Dow top for short entryWave model projected 25076 on Dow got to 25070. Divergence in indices suggests flight to quality - dumping tech to buy blue chips, nervous toppy behavior.
Can go higher but is due for a pullback and possibly a substantial drawdown. Wave C could carry to 23800 or lower.
Could get a shooting star Tues to confirm topping. Other indexes already moving lower and global markets showing weakness. Reactionary wave B is ending- soon.
Shorts placed and puts purchased at or above this price level are probably about lowest risk you can hope for in this game of high stakes risky business.
Good luck!
PS An SPX trader has observed that over past 3 months wave highs occurred at New Moon; Wave lows follow 2 weeks later at Full Moon- neat! Let's see if it holds...
Elliott Wave 'B' corrective reaction nearing pivot reversalNice double top formed around the subwave 4 on bullish reactionary wave in downtrend correction... it's not over yet... media says 'going to the Moon' so look down
Record high NDX and broad-market Nasdaq today, all-time high for MSFT now trading at market cap $800Billion... can you say bubbly?!
Rate hikes- check; inflation - check; t-bill rate inversion - coming soon. Trade war = fluffy noise unless they really make us pay more, then - 'Ow!'
Possible wave top near 25076, if it reaches that is 0.50 Fibo from Jan high (0.618 Fibo reached 06-11 at 24404) look for it intraday possibly Friday or Monday.
probably safe to enter shorts north of 24980, certainly if >25k: caution an expanded wave B could carry back near top of Wave A to 24400, however unlikely it seems
Could form a shooting star candle if it reaches that high; pushback will be strong over Dow 25000, look for confirmation before short entry
Wave C downdraft beginning possibly 7-18 to 7-20 could carry index as low as 23530 support by August, support at 23800 may hold it higher; Wave A reached 24004, C usually breaks below A support
For God's sake get your kids' college funds and pension savings out of the bloody market if you're still in it! Your life savings will evaporate overnight.
My friends are so stubborn, I try to tell them this, but; "I just buy the dips and it always comes back! It will be fine! You worry too much! I only buy good funds!"
...Gosh, your great-grandkids will appreciate you did that for them. Good luck!
Dow reaction Wave B entering subwave 5 final leg upWednesday's pullback looking like a subwave 4 now expect a final subwave 5 push to possibly 25100 pivot for short entry sometime next week;
This last pushup will likely terminate correction wave B and usher in wave C downdraft. Anything can happen though; market is irrational- good luck!
Dow Short Entry Pivot Possible 7-11-180709: +320; 0710: + 140; 0711: +60? Can they bull it through 25K? Maybe we get a shooting star Doji for short signal on Wednesday. Will soon see.
Earnings season incoming: they bought the rumor, will sell the news. Runup in banks based on earnings expectations. Tech already tanking; hanging man Doji on Nas.
Divergence in NDX +0.04% Dow + 0.58% SPX +.35% = "Flight to quality" Sold calls to close and bought some DIA 250 September puts today at 24940.
Short entry probably safe close to or above 24980 if we see that on 7-11. Support for Elliot wave C at 23800.
Expect a lower high in August before possible big break in September. Look at the '1987' chart posted last week- fits like a glove.
Good luck!
DJI REACTION RALLY ATTEMPT ONGOING; FACING STRONG RESISTANCE FIERCE SELLING INTO EVERY RALLY BUT FRIDAY'S RUNUP AT LEAST LEFT A LITTLE GREEN ON THE TABLE
THE REACTION TO RISING WEDGE BO DOWN IS ONGOING, INDEX RESPECTED PRICE TRENDLINE THURSDAY ~24K
EXPECT ANOTHER RALLY ATTEMPT ON 7/02. DON'T EXPECT IT TO GET MUCH ABOVE 24460, THE WEDGE MIDPOINT.
TRADED RIGHT AT MIDPOINT ALL FRIDAY BEFORE DAYTRADER SELLOFF, WHICH WE SEE DAILY IN LAST FIVE MINUTES BEFORE THE BELL NOW.
IT'S A BEAR FOLKS. AFTER A BRIEF STRUGGLE HIGHER EXPECT SHARP TURN DOWN AGAIN. EARNINGS SEASON MAY STAVE OFF THE WORST... MAYBE.
Short Term ETH Day TradeAccording to my Elliott Wave count, ETH is in a reactionary wave (a correction within the correction). We are in a short term uptrend within the longer term downtrend. We have just completed 5 waves with a ending diagonal and will likely see a dip. If the prices dip, we could set some buys orders and ride to back to 1k.
Note: If ETH hits the target price before hitting the buy zone, this setup would be invalid. ETH has to hit the buy zone before hitting the target.
