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Sep.17-Sep.23(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the Federal Reserve kicked off the rate-cutting era with a hawkish 50 basis point cut. Although the CME had previously predicted a high probability of a 50bp rate cut, the fact that only one committee member voted for a 25bp cut while all others opted for 50bp was beyond market expectations. Following the announcement, almost all financial assets, except for the U.S. dollar, showed bullish trends. After the rate cut, the value of the U.S. dollar will decrease, which will make stablecoins in the crypto industry more sensitive. They will either hold BTC to mitigate the impact of dollar depreciation or opt to hold other financial assets. Therefore, we anticipate that market volatility will significantly increase in the future. Last week, BTC ETFs experienced net inflows for a period, but as the rate cut event cooled down, traditional capital inflows gradually declined. The ETH ETFs performed even more sluggishly, showing significant net outflows as of yesterday. If traditional funds fail to continue flowing into the market, it could lead to capital outflows within the market. ETH's performance last week was slightly stronger than BTC. However, as the ME indicator reflects, bearish forces are stronger on a larger scale. Similarly, the WTA indicator does not show any significant blue bars. ETH's rise last week seems more like a catch-up rally driven by BTC's increase. In summary, we believe ETH may remain in a consolidation phase this week, with a higher probability of an upward trend than a downward one. We raise the resistance level to 2,800 and maintain the previous support level at 2,100. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Sep.17-Sep.23(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, the Federal Reserve kicked off the rate-cutting era with a hawkish 50 basis point cut. Although the CME had previously predicted a high probability of a 50bp rate cut, the fact that only one committee member voted for a 25bp cut while all others opted for 50bp was beyond market expectations. Following the announcement, almost all financial assets, except for the U.S. dollar, showed bullish trends. After the rate cut, the value of the U.S. dollar will decrease, which will make stablecoins in the crypto industry more sensitive. They will either hold BTC to mitigate the impact of dollar depreciation or opt to hold other financial assets. Therefore, we anticipate that market volatility will significantly increase in the future. Last week, BTC ETFs experienced net inflows for a period, but as the rate cut event cooled down, traditional capital inflows gradually declined. The ETH ETFs performed even more sluggishly, showing significant net outflows as of yesterday. If traditional funds fail to continue flowing into the market, it could lead to capital outflows within the market. BTC saw further rebound last week, with the price breaking through the established support level. However, last week's trading volume was not significant. This can also be seen in the WTA indicator, where the blue bars representing whale activity are sparse. The ME indicator maintained a bearish signal, but the continuous rise is gradually narrowing the yellow zone. In conclusion, we believe that BTC may fluctuate this week, with a higher likelihood of an upward trend than a downward one. We raise the support level to 68,000 and maintain the resistance level at 52,500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Sep.3-Sep.9(ETH)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level 2400 and the support level 2100. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level to 2400 and the support level to 2100.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Sep.3-Sep.9(BTC)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. Before last Friday, BTC dropped, hitting a support level and then rebounding. Overall trading volume remained consistent with previous periods. However, based on the WTA indicator, whale participation was low. The ME indicator maintained a bearish trend, with the yellow zone continuing to expand. In conclusion, we believe BTC may remain volatile this week. We maintain the original resistance level 62000 and the support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.27-Sep.2(ETH)Weekly market recapBTC volatility decreased after BTC gave back the gains from the Jackhole meeting. Currently, the number of stablecoins in the market continues to grow, getting closer to ATH, but there are few market hot spots except memes. After the staking storm passed, we saw the meme rise again. Whether it is Pump.fun on Solana earlier or Sun.pump that appeared on Tron recently, we can see that both large and small entities have turned their attention to memes. Four.meme backed by Binance also began to develop on the BSC chain, trying to capture the popularity after the release of CZ. For the crypto market, except for emergencies, market volatility suffocates any trader, and people can only grow their wealth through memes. The market only transfers wealth and does not create value. Risk assets have fully priced in a September rate cut, and even if there is some difference in value, monetary policy is unlikely to bring additional volatility. This Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest NFP data. Unless there is a significant deviation from expectations, risk assets will maintain their trend. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency’s performance relative to NDX remains affected by ETF flows. The volatility of ETH last week was greater than that of BTC, but the overall volatility remained volatile. Trading volume is sluggish. The indicators are consistent with the reaction of BTC. No whales have participated in the past seven days of trading, and the ME indicator maintains a bearish trend. To sum up, we believe that ETH is weaker than BTC. This is also reflected in the capital flows of the ETH ETF. We maintain our original resistance level 2800 and support level 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.27-Sep.2(BTC)Weekly market recapBTC volatility decreased after BTC gave back the gains from the Jackhole meeting. Currently, the number of stablecoins in the market continues to grow, getting closer to ATH, but there are few market hot spots except memes. After the staking storm passed, we saw the meme rise again. Whether it is Pump.fun on Solana earlier or Sun.pump that appeared on Tron recently, we can see that both large and small entities have turned their attention to memes. Four.meme backed by Binance also began to develop on the BSC chain, trying to capture the popularity after the release of CZ. For the crypto market, except for emergencies, market volatility suffocates any trader, and people can only grow their wealth through memes. The market only transfers wealth and does not create value. Risk assets have fully priced in a September rate cut, and even if there is some difference in value, monetary policy is unlikely to bring additional volatility. This Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest NFP data. Unless there is a significant deviation from expectations, risk assets will maintain their trend. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency’s performance relative to NDX remains affected by ETF flows. Although BTC saw a significant decline on Sunday, the long green candle yesterdays repaired the losses. BTC maintains low volatility most of the time. Judging from the WTA indicator, the blue column representing the whale has not participated in transactions in the past week. Like trading volume, WTA also reflects market downturns. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend. To sum up, we believe that the recent performance of BTC will still be dominated by fluctuation. In the short term, it will be determined by the capital flow of BTC ETF, and in the medium term, it will be determined by the amount of funds released after the monetary policy turns to loosening. We maintain last week’s resistance level 62000 and support level 52500.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.13-Aug.19(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for July, which was slightly better than expected. Afterwards, U.S. stocks started an upward trend that lasted for a week, and gold recently refreshed its ATH, further pricing in interest rate cuts. The performance of crypto market has been weaker than other markets, with BTC and ETH almost at the same price level as a week ago. On Friday, Powell will speak at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. The market has basically acquiesced that interest rates will be cut in September. The point of disagreement is whether to cut interest rates by 25 bp or 50 bp. Cash-flows to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF have been subdued over the past seven days. This is in contrast to the US stock market. It seems that the enthusiasm of traditional funds for crypto is gradually declining. This also reflects that funds may be flowing to other assets. Unlike BTC, ETH performed more weakly last week. Still in a downward trend overall. There was barely any rebound from the bulls, with trading volume significantly below past averages. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend and the yellow wavy area widens further. On the WTA indicator, like BTC, there is no blue column representing whales. To sum up, we believe that ETH may remain volatile this week, with the downside probability being greater than the upside. We maintain our original resistance level of 2800 and support level of 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.13-Aug.19(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for July, which was slightly better than expected. Afterwards, U.S. stocks started an upward trend that lasted for a week, and gold recently refreshed its ATH, further pricing in interest rate cuts. The performance of crypto market has been weaker than other markets, with BTC and ETH almost at the same price level as a week ago. On Friday, Powell will speak at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. The market has basically acquiesced that interest rates will be cut in September. The point of disagreement is whether to cut interest rates by 25 bp or 50 bp. Cash-flows to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF have been subdued over the past seven days. This is in contrast to the US stock market. It seems that the enthusiasm of traditional funds for crypto is gradually declining. This also reflects that funds may be flowing to other assets. As we predicted last week, BTC remains fluctuating, with the price remaining the same as it was 7 days ago. The strength of the bears has diminished but the strength of the bulls has not increased. Both bulls and bears are waiting for new trend confirmation. So all indicators are calm. The blue columns representing whales does not appear on the WTA indicator. The ME indicator shows a slight bearish trend due to long-term fluctuations. In summary, we believe that BTC will continue to remain fluctuating this week, and volatility may increase on Friday. We maintain our original resistance level 62000 and support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Aug.6-Aug.12(ETH)Weekly market recapCrypto market lose power after rebound. BTC had a significant decline for a period of time after the ETF was announced. But after 15 days, sufficient liquidity brought an increase that repaired the decline. It has been two weeks since the ETH ETF was listed. After excluding the impact of grayscale, we have seen that traditional funds are also flowing into the ETH ETF. CPI data for July will be released on Wednesday. We believe that if CPI falls further, it will give risk assets such as BTC and US stocks an upward momentum. We do not believe that the recession started on August 2, when the employment data was released. Therefore, if the CPI data falls further, the market will not panic about recession, and will price further interest rate cuts. We believe that a large amount of spot ETH being staked will increase volatility. When ETH is dumped, the volatility does amplify, but it is far less than other tokens during the rebound. This is not a good phenomenon. As we mentioned above, the ETH ETF has been listed for two weeks, and there is every reason to believe that the sell the news phenomenon is over. The bulls' performance has been disappointing. Like BTC, we saw the emergence of whales when ETH dumped. The whale disappears after a day and does not continue to participate in trading. Judging from the ME indicator, ETH has entered a bearish trend, and the wavy area has further widened. To sum up, we believe that ETH will remain fluctuating this week, and the probability of falling is greater than rising. We maintain our original resistance level 2800 and support level 2400. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Aug.6-Aug.12(BTC)Weekly market recapCrypto market lose power after rebound. BTC had a significant decline for a period of time after the ETF was announced. But after 15 days, sufficient liquidity brought an increase that repaired the decline. It has been two weeks since the ETH ETF was listed. After excluding the impact of grayscale, we have seen that traditional funds are also flowing into the ETH ETF. CPI data for July will be released on Wednesday. We believe that if CPI falls further, it will give risk assets such as BTC and US stocks an upward momentum. We do not believe that the recession started on August 2, when the employment data was released. Therefore, if the CPI data falls further, the market will not panic about recession, and will price further interest rate cuts. BTC rebounded last week, with bulls beginning to fade after hitting 62000. Although we question the idea of a recession. But the earlier dump really broke the calm. At larger levels, the power of bears has increased. Judging from the indicators, a large number of whales participated in the transaction of BTC after the dump, which is also the main reason for the price increase. However, after the weekend, the whales gradually disappeared. On the ME indicator, the long-term fluctuation narrowed the wavy area. Currently under a bearish signal. In summary, we believe that if the CPI data is within expectations, BTC may fluctuate this week. We raise the resistance level 62000 and maintain the original support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jul.30-Aug.5(ETH)Weekly market recapAfter the release of employment data last Friday, the Sahm rule was triggered and the FUD of recession swept through various financial assets. The stock market and BTC both suffered a very significant correction. But is this really the case? After the employment data was released, BTC and US stocks were the first to react, with US stocks remaining volatile after opening lower on Friday. BTC dumped over the weekend and drove the Asia-Pacific stock market. But gold did not rise. Even under the dual momentum of Iran's potential attack on Israel and recession expectations, it only fluctuated and did not price recession. Another point that has been ignored by the market is that as a leading indicator of recession, U.S. bond yields have been inverted for a long time. The market once priced in a recession in 2023 because of the inversion of U.S. bond yields, but now ignores it at this point. We don’t deny the recession. But we may have already been in it, and the market’s reaction was too violent, at least for BTC and Asia-Pacific stock markets. The volatile upward trend of U.S. stocks after opening lower on Monday, as well as the pullback of XAUUSD, prove this view. Therefore, from a macroeconomic perspective, we do not believe that there is room for further dumping of various financial assets, or that bullish strategies are better than bearish ones. The decline of ETH is much greater than that of BTC. This may be because a large amount of ETH is staked in the protocol, which indeed increases the liquidity but the volatility. ETH has wiped out almost all of its gains from 2024, and it’s hard to imagine this in an environment where an ETH ETF is listed. But in any case, ETH also had a long downward pin-bar, and the bulls strengthened. Judging from the indicators, there have been signs of whales participating in transactions in the past two days, which means that whales have been bargain hunting after ETH fell. The ME indicator has turned bearish. To sum up, we believe that ETH may mainly fluctuate this week, and the downward trend is more likely than the upward trend. We lower the support level to 2400 and the resistance level to 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Jul.30-Aug.5(BTC)Weekly market recapAfter the release of employment data last Friday, the Sahm rule was triggered and the FUD of recession swept through various financial assets. The stock market and BTC both suffered a very significant correction. But is this really the case? After the employment data was released, BTC and US stocks were the first to react, with US stocks remaining volatile after opening lower on Friday. BTC dumped over the weekend and drove the Asia-Pacific stock market. But gold did not rise. Even under the dual momentum of Iran's potential attack on Israel and recession expectations, it only fluctuated and did not price recession. Another point that has been ignored by the market is that as a leading indicator of recession, U.S. bond yields have been inverted for a long time. The market once priced in a recession in 2023 because of the inversion of U.S. bond yields, but now ignores it at this point. We don’t deny the recession. But we may have already been in it, and the market’s reaction was too violent, at least for BTC and Asia-Pacific stock markets. The volatile upward trend of U.S. stocks after opening lower on Monday, as well as the pullback of XAUUSD, prove this view. Therefore, from a macroeconomic perspective, we do not believe that there is room for further dumping of various financial assets, or that bullish strategies are better than bearish ones. BTC’s performance last week showed the smallest loss compared to other tokens. And yesterday there was a long downward pin-bar. Judging from the WTA indicator, although the decline has started in the past few days, there are not many blue columns representing whales. Until yesterday, the number of blue columns increased significantly. We believe this shows that whales began to buy the bottom after BTC broke through 50000. The dump brings the ME indicator close to turning bearish. To sum up, we believe that BTC may mainly fluctuate this week, with the probability of upwards being greater than downwards. We lower support to 52500 and resistance to 58000. If this resistance level is broken down, the next level will be 60000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jul.23-Jul.29(ETH)Weekly market recapTrump inspires crypto market at Bitcoin 2024. He stated that if he enters office, it will remove Gary Gensler from SEC leadership as soon as possible. And the US government will not sell BTC holdings, whether currently held or potential future purchases, as a special way for strategic reserve. The market was attracted by his promise and BTC began to rise away from ETH, touching 70000. If Trump is elected and keeps his promise, BTC will start a new bullish channel after November. On the other hand, this week is a big data week. The FOMC will be held on Thursday. Although we all know that there will be no interest rate cuts, as long as there are no hawkish views in Powell conference and the FOMC statements, the market will price in further interest rate cuts. On this Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release employment data for July. Likewise, as long as the employment data does not strengthen significantly, the rise will not be interrupted. ETH’s performance last week was weaker than BTC’s. Because Bitcoin 2024 did not mention ETH, ETH trading volume on Saturday was the same as usual. Judging from the WTA indicator, the number of blue columns representing whales increased significantly last week, which is different from BTC. Perhaps it is because the listing of the ETH ETF has attracted whales to hold ETH. Judging from the ME indicator line, the long-term fluctuation has further narrowed the purple wavy area. In summary, we continue to maintain a bullish view on ETH. ETH is more likely to rise than fall this week. We maintain our previous resistance level 4000 and support level 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Jul.23-Jul.29(BTC)Weekly market recapTrump inspires crypto market at Bitcoin 2024. He stated that if he enters office, it will remove Gary Gensler from SEC leadership as soon as possible. And the US government will not sell BTC holdings, whether currently held or potential future purchases, as a special way for strategic reserve. The market was attracted by his promise and BTC began to rise away from ETH, touching 70000. If Trump is elected and keeps his promise, BTC will start a new bullish channel after November. On the other hand, this week is a big data week. The FOMC will be held on Thursday. Although we all know that there will be no interest rate cuts, as long as there are no hawkish views in Powell conference and the FOMC statements, the market will price in further interest rate cuts. On this Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release employment data for July. Likewise, as long as the employment data does not strengthen significantly, the rise will not be interrupted. Looking at the candle charts, overall trading volume was low last week. The only hot spot is that Bitcoin 2024 attracted retail investors on Saturday, which made the trading volume on Saturday significantly higher than previous weekend levels. Judging from the WTA indicator, there were no whales involved in trading last week. From the ME indicator, the purple wavy area gradually widens, and the market turns to an upward trend. In summary, we believe that though short sellers have hindered the rise, BTC still has the possibility of standing above 70000 this week. We maintain the previous resistance level 74000 and support level 58000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jul.16-Jul.22(ETH)Weekly market recapThe rise from the excellent CPI lasted for 10 days, and Biden’s quit from the next presidential election continues the bull trend. The pricing for CPI has ended. The market has once again entered a macro cooling period. We don’t think PCE on Friday will change anything. The next important macro event will be the FOMC release at the end of the July. Although it is almost impossible for the next FOMC to cut interest rates, bulls need to find reasons to maintain strength from the FOMC statement and Powell's speech. Also worth paying special attention to in the coming week is the Bitcoin 2024 conference. Trump will take the stage to give a speech on the last day. If he really includes BTC as a strategic reserve of the United States as he said before, then BTC will be crazy about it. On the other hand, the ETH ETF was officially approved a few hours ago, and will officially trade in the next session. This is a bullish event for ETH in the long term, but in the short term, the market reaction is not ideal. We believe that the trend of ETH may be the same as that of BTC through ETF. Take a break and then go up. ETH encountered bearish strength after hitting 3500. The performance over the past seven days has been weaker than that of BTC. The ME indicator continues to maintain its bullish trend. But judging from the WTA indicators, like BTC, whale participation has been low in the past seven days, and even the transaction volume has continued to decrease. In summary, we believe that ETH may remain fluctuating this week. The probability of rising is greater than falling. The approval of ETF will benefit ETH in the long term, and the ETH/BTC rate will rise. We maintain the resistance level 4000 and support level 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
1
Jul.16-Jul.22(BTC)Weekly market recapThe rise from the excellent CPI lasted for 10 days, and Biden’s quit from the next presidential election continues the bull trend. The pricing for CPI has ended. The market has once again entered a macro cooling period. We don’t think PCE on Friday will change anything. The next important macro event will be the FOMC release at the end of the July. Although it is almost impossible for the next FOMC to cut interest rates, bulls need to find reasons to maintain strength from the FOMC statement and Powell's speech. Also worth paying special attention to in the coming week is the Bitcoin 2024 conference. Trump will take the stage to give a speech on the last day. If he really includes BTC as a strategic reserve of the United States as he said before, then BTC will be crazy about it. On the other hand, the ETH ETF was officially approved a few hours ago, and will officially trade in the next session. This is a bullish event for ETH in the long term, but in the short term, the market reaction is not ideal. We believe that the trend of ETH may be the same as that of BTC through ETF. Take a break and then go up. As mentioned in our last recap, BTC bulls advanced further, touching 68000. This turns the ME indicator into a bullish trend. On the WTA indicator, although the bulls performed strongly, more power came from shrimps, and the participation of whales was not obvious. To sum up, we believe that BTC will remain volatile for most of this week, but we need to pay attention to the impact from Bitcoin 2024. BTC is more likely to rise further than to fall. We maintain our resistance level 74000 and support level 58000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jul.9-Jul.15(ETH)Weekly market recapThe CPI of June dropped significantly and performed better than expected. Coupled with Powell's dovish speeches on monetary policy in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the market has rekindled hopes of an interest rate cut. Judging from data available in the interest rate swap market, traders have begun pricing in the possibility of two interest rate cuts in 2024. And it is expected that starting from the FOMC in September, interest rates will be cut at every subsequent FOMC. After the German government sold BTC, FUD in the market gradually decreased. Mt.Gox's repayment method will be based on the BTC price several years ago, and the potential selling pressure will not be large. So after gold and U.S. stocks responded bullishly on Thursday, cryptocurrencies started to see gains over the weekend. Relative to U.S. stocks that continue to price in interest rate cuts, BTC and stocks in developing countries will become the leaders of this cycle. The SEC is currently expected to issue its latest response to the ETH ETF this week, and there is a high probability that it will be officially launched this week. Again, we are already on the way to a rate cut. This is the era of ETH. Although FUD caused greater losses to ETH, the continuous rise has repaired it. The listing of ETH ETF remains a focus of the market. Like BTC, ETH bulls enjoyed a rare weekend of strength and are holding on. On the WTA indicator, after ETH fell below 3000, whales appeared. The ME indicator continues to maintain a bullish trend. To sum up, we believe that ETH may lead the market higher this week. We maintain our original resistance level 4000 and support level 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
1
Jul.9-Jul.15(BTC)Weekly market recapThe CPI of June dropped significantly and performed better than expected. Coupled with Powell's dovish speeches on monetary policy in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the market has rekindled hopes of an interest rate cut. Judging from data available in the interest rate swap market, traders have begun pricing in the possibility of two interest rate cuts in 2024. And it is expected that starting from the FOMC in September, interest rates will be cut at every subsequent FOMC. After the German government sold BTC, FUD in the market gradually decreased. Mt.Gox's repayment method will be based on the BTC price several years ago, and the potential selling pressure will not be large. So after gold and U.S. stocks responded bullishly on Thursday, cryptocurrencies started to see gains over the weekend. Relative to U.S. stocks that continue to price in interest rate cuts, BTC and stocks in developing countries will become the leaders of this cycle. The SEC is currently expected to issue its latest response to the ETH ETF this week, and there is a high probability that it will be officially launched this week. Again, we are already on the way to a rate cut. Over the past seven days, BTC has demonstrated the power of the bulls. It is back in range and has repaired the loss caused by FUD. It should be noted that the market is mainly dominated by retail investors on weekends, and there will not be major fluctuations due to the rest of institutions. However, the bullish trend of BTC formed over the weekend and continues to these days. Looking at the WTA indicator, the blue columns representing whales increase when the price hits 54000. Both whales and shrimp have turned bullish. The ME indicator switched to a bearish trend due to long-term fluctuations. In summary, BTC bulls are well-positioned to develop further this week. We maintain our original resistance level 74000 and support level 58000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jun.26-Jul.1(ETH)Weekly market recapThe PCE of May was better than the previous value, and the power of shorts has slowed down. This Friday will usher in important NFP. This will restart the medium-term trend. Many financial markets pulled back after rise in NFP in last month. Although we all know that the increase in NFP is likely to come from political needs and the increase in illegal immigration. Therefore, there is a divergence between it and the unemployment rate. However, with the market's full interpretation, we believe that as long as NFP is not significantly higher than expected, the market may ignore NFP and price a new round of interest rate cuts. The SEC recently returned some applicants’ S-1 documents regarding ETH ETF and required them to submit documents again within July 8. ETH ETF is getting closer. The formal approval of the BTC ETF is after the U.S. stock market closes, so the ETH ETF may also be within this time point. Economic data aside, the ETH ETF will be key over the next 10 days. Although Mt. Gox brought FUD, the BTC ETF has turned to net inflows for 5 consecutive days, which shows that institutions have reopened BTC. ETH has remained fluctuation over the past week, as we expected. But the ETH ETF is about to be launched, and this cycle is still for ETH. The response from an indicator level is lackluster. There are no obvious whales on the WTA indicator, and trading volume has not increased. The ME indicator continues to fluctuate, causing the wavy area to further narrow. In summary, we believe that ETH's performance this week may be stronger than BTC, but this depends on the time when the ETH ETF is listed. We maintain our original resistance level 4000 and support level 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Jun.26-Jul.1(BTC)Weekly market recapThe PCE of May was better than the previous value, and the power of shorts has slowed down. This Friday will usher in important NFP. This will restart the medium-term trend. Many financial markets pulled back after rise in NFP in last month. Although we all know that the increase in NFP is likely to come from political needs and the increase in illegal immigration. Therefore, there is a divergence between it and the unemployment rate. However, with the market's full interpretation, we believe that as long as NFP is not significantly higher than expected, the market may ignore NFP and price a new round of interest rate cuts. The SEC recently returned some applicants’ S-1 documents regarding ETH ETF and required them to submit documents again within July 8. ETH ETF is getting closer. The formal approval of the BTC ETF is after the U.S. stock market closes, so the ETH ETF may also be within this time point. Economic data aside, the ETH ETF will be key over the next 10 days. Although Mt. Gox brought FUD, the BTC ETF has turned to net inflows for 5 consecutive days, which shows that institutions have reopened BTC. As we predicted last week, BTC rebounded after approaching its lows. Of course, this is also related to the bottom-buying sentiment prompted by the MBF indicator last week. Judging from the WTA indicator, the blue column representing the whale does not appear. Last week's trading volume was consistent with previous weeks. Bulls strengthened, but overall remain on the sidelines. The long-term fluctuation weakened the bullish trend of the ME indicator, and the wavy area further narrowed. To sum up, we believe that the trend of BTC this week will be determined by multiple events, and before that, it may remain fluctuating. We maintain our original resistance level 74000 and support level 58000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
Jun.19-Jun.25(ETH)Weekly market recapThe market fell further as we expected last week. During the economic data window, the market began to price in only one interest rate cut this year. This is not just for crypto market, but for all financial markets. This is likely to last until early July, before bulls come back and bring enthusiasm again. During this period, the PCE released this Friday will bring about a small rebound. In addition, multiple BTC ETFs have experienced net outflows for several consecutive days, which is also a microcosm of the US market sentiment. After some asset management companies submitted S-1 documents for the ETH ETF, the market expected that the ETH ETF would be officially listed in early July, which would also bring about a small-level rebound. Regardless, we are on the way to a rate cut, and the long-term trend for all types of financial assets must be upward. ETH fell less than BTC. This may be related to the upcoming listing of ETF ETH. Yesterday's decline saw significant trading volume, but eventually a pin-bar formed. For ETH, the MBF indicator does not indicate bottom-buying sentiment. There is no obvious blue column representing whales on the TSB indicator. The ME indicator continues to maintain a bullish trend, but the wavy area gradually narrows. To sum up, we believe that ETH is likely to remain fluctuating this week. We maintain our original resistance level 4000 and support level 2800. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool