SPX part 1SPX playbook part 1
Either chop in this wedge for a break to the upside - or total failure and we go 2001 - 2008 style widdit m8
Reccesion
Historical Behavior post-recessionsThe Russell 2000, as well as the S&P500 tend to have a similar behavior coming out of market bottoms. In this case, we analyze the potential move with past historical data.
The first year is usually a strong one, the second one there is consolidation and accumulation, the third there is a strong rally that loses steam near September.
Using market bottoms from:
1974
1982
2003
2009
SPX weak, going to 2200SPX still looking very weak, which is quite logical with COVID cases rising dramatically in the US!
It is very likely heading to the 2200 region (slowly & controlled), the corona financial impact is no joke..
ES short IdeaAs momentum seems to be slowing, it looks like distribution could potentially be forming. I Will be setting limit orders at this zone as any higher and I'd start to think that all time highs would follow. As world economies crumble it's hard not to be short biased and if that first initial crash in March was just a teaser for what is to come I'd expect a rejection from this zone.
EURAUD LAST IMPULSE BEFORE RECESSIONEURO is inevitabely going to be perished during this global recession which will become more apparent in our attempts to recover from this pandemic. Liquidity is going to be maximised, so I expect a large impulse to create a position of reversal. On our weekly chart, I expect levels of 1.9 to be tested.
Please provide your criticisms, so we can establish more validity in this evaluation.
MSM says theres no risk of inflation?1. Significant rally followed by decline
2. Downward trend resumes first week of April
3. Sideways ranging market (no clear trend)
#1 seems the most likely imo. Why?
Fundamental: pensions allocating from equities from bonds soon. Also millions will be infected with Rona in U.S.
Technical: bounce of 50 rsi and MA's
Unemployment will hit 8-9%. Say goodbye to consumer spending.
Corporate debt is looking awful.... Ford downgraded to below investment grade! FORD! 44% of corp debt is BBB. Won't take much for the house of cards to come down.
FED will continue QE4... but what happens if inflation rises dramatically?
Even when businesses re-open, prices will go up to cover for gov sponsored rona-related loans and recoup lossess.
Demand for foreign currency rises. Then perhaps a bank run due to the ABSURD 0%-reserve requirements.
buy bitcointhis is as per the completion of a possible retracement in anticipation to the next bull run ,with a possible payout of 1:54 ,remember stick to money management.
DXY Plane Crash 2020!! HEY!!! So i did a analysis on the DXY index for next few months and it does not look good for the dollar. Check out this video analysis on the DXY index.
Don't get wrecked.All things come to an end. GM laying off employees, companies cutting back resources, media keeping news of real estate foreclosures quiet. It's time to wake up. This is a good visual of what's happening in the macro markets.
Wyckoff labelled and Gann notable date coming up.
Good luck.
Is the VXX trying to tell us something?I feel that VXX is making a run up within the next 3 months, Something is happening in the financial system and the market, economy and investors might not like it.
Are we headed on a 10 year BEAR market?Germany the 4th largest economy is about to go into a recession, UK collapsing on the face of the Brexit, France government at the edge of destruction, Italy is bankrupt, Greece is bankrupt, China could very well be in a recession as we speak, Venezuela is in turmoil, Honduras, Guatemala, Argentina and many other south American countries are bankrupt. The USA now showing signs of a weak economy. Is this the beginning of the next 10 year bear market?
S&P 500 - Short Squeeze?My original idea I published on Christmas day seems to be playing out almost perfectly...
but the amount of short interest i'm seeing has me concerned about a short squeeze
I will be sticking to my original idea with a slight stop loss adjustment
Economic reccesion is most likely already upon usHello,
I've compiled a few charts I've posted in the past year warning about the economic reality of the times we're in now. My predictions we're pretty accurate up to this point, and I see no reason for it to change. Contrary the evidence for an imminent reccesion only keeps piling up. The front end of the yield curve has started to invert with the 2 year yield already higher than the 5 year. Oil declined more than 30%, banks declined more than 20%, the dollar is still standing because guess where everyone is going when they're selling out. Also on the technical side of things. Both the TSI and MACD have now broken trough the signal line. Mind you these are slowed down indicators to remove the noise, and everytime time these slowed down indicators crossed their signal lines they never went back up before going down to oversold levels. Both indicators have also crossed in the Russell 2000 index.
All this makes me strongly believe that a reccesion has most likely already started. We may just get another slightly higher new high, but I doubt that it will happen.
The Death of the Stock Market and Why Most Traders SuckThe good traders never get famous. They're lone wolves. They won't give you what you want because being a good trader requires peak IDGAFness.
What you want is 8 meticulously detailed and data intensive paragraphs about why the stock market is going down 53% from the ATH and how you could have know that back in October. But you actually don't need to know anything about finance to see it in the chart.
Why waste my breath? I posted the chart. A picture is worth a thousand words.
The people who will benefit from this trade idea are the people who are free thinkers. You will see the chart and think for yourself: How could this be 99% accurate and/or how could this be 99% wrong?
You need to be able to envision both possibilities in your head and manage your risk around what is the most probable scenario. Forget the narratives, forget the "news".
.....But I dont need to tell you good traders that, if you see this post your already figuring out what you can learn from this chart; the rightness and wrongness of my idea (statement) based of of your own interpretation.
Like modern art it tis.
This is honestly just a normal market cycle. A measly correction is unlikely. Once we fall past the MA200 its a rippity rippity wrap. (but first Im gunna long the bounce off the MA200 before it continues to break down)
BEAR GANG GOING FOR THE SLAM DUNK
S&P 500 It seems we are the verge of a BEAR market.This chart looks at the trend all the way back from the great depression in 1930's.
Now I've put arrows where the resistance and support levels are and marked the RSI divergence similarities between all the recent market topping patterns beginning from 1987 then 2000 then 2008 and now in 2018.
The 2000 market topping was extremely prolonged but the divergence is very similar non the less. But the price action today more likely mimics the price action seen in 2008 IMHO.
Also check out the MACD It's slowed down a by third to cut out some noise, it's right now the edge.
I think I'll be adding more charts like Oil, Gold and Dollar later on, because they all seem to exhibit similarities to the recent market topping events.
So stay tuned and stay safe, things might start moving fast now.
