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Reversiontothemean

SPY falls into mean VWAP support for LONGSPY on the 1H chart was riding the cynamic resistance of the second upper VWAP line in mid July but then pivoted down out of a head and shoulders at the bottom of the month and is now bounding up and down retesting the support of the mean VWAP line. The ADX indicator shows the flat line directional index. The ZL MACD is upgoing after a cross of the lines at the lows. Price is impending another VWAP crossover on the retest. I see this as an excellent base from which to take call options long targeting $453 for both 8/18 and 9/1. Please leave a comment, will SPY turn it around here or seek the downside?
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Will REX revert to the mean ?REX hit a 52-week high after an analyst upgrade. Was this enough to justify a 12% increase in a nonvolatile business, the ethanol production business to support its addition to gasoline to combat air pollution and so global warming. Production and so revenue is not accelerating although it may be a bit seasonal during the summer driving and vacation season. On the daily chart, RE put in a massive bullish bar with wicking above the third upper Bolliger Band set at 2.618 ( Fib level) standard deviations. REX did this on 5/25 and then dropped. I see it doing the same thing again. This demonstrates the version to the mean or "rubber-band" concept. I will stock trade REX short and look at the mid- October put options.
NYSE:REXShort
by AwesomeAvani
Food Gaint Kroger reverses from a trend downKR has an overall fairly narrow trading range. On this 4H chart, it is presently in a symmetrical triangle or slowly rising wedge. Earnings beats have been respectable. KR reversed on June 1 at the trending support line and is heading toward overhead resistance. Just before that upper resistance trendline is the POC line of the high volume area of the profile where high volatility and increased trading could result in a bounce and fall. Confirmation is found in the zero-lag MACD indicator which shows a K /D line cross under the histogram. I will take a long trade on KR (reversion to the mean) with the stop loss at that pivot low on June 1st and the target a nickel below the POC line at 48.95. I see this as a low-risk and low reward trade which may also be the basis for adding a low risk call options trade to the options portfolio.
NYSE:KR
by AwesomeAvani
btc bitcoin. slight warningReguardless if you are bullish or bearish. Are next central monthly pivot point is coming in around 45k area. Less known fact. New central pivot points on daily weekly and monthlys recieve price reversion like magnet almost all the time. In fact the onl time the monthly central pivot point did not get tested was jan this year and dec 2017... of the last 50 months. (I only counted 50. probably more) This does not mean it will go directly there. The monthly level is not set in stone and this calculation for is developing level can be altered with both bullish and bearish price action. If it starts going down prior to monthly close it might have a healthy bounce from that area. If it just bolts upward and the monthly closes high you will very likely see at least a 5,000 dollar price reversion at the very least. Keep an eye on it and stay safe in these areas.
by Gunslinger2005
4
High probability 'Reversion to the Mean' trade. 80% odds. Can't get better odds than this. If the pivot low holds there is an 80% probability of the price reverting back to the median line. Currently the target is +45% but the longer it takes the higher the target. A realistic target would be around 80% Key points: The low is at the 0.618 fib Pivot low need to hold Entry: at current price 0.03077 Best entry at 0.029815 and below Target is pitchfork median line, so constantly moving higher but currently at .0438 Stops at 0.02795 Good Risk: Reward ratio at 1:5 and increasing with time Never Trust. Verify. D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice Just an Observation. Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
Long
by TribeWriter666
7
AAVE:BTC Best odds in the market. 80% chance to make 40% profitHigh probability "Reversion to the mean" trade. As long at the pivot holds there is an 80% chance that the price will return to the median line. This is a solid trade. Almost 1:2 Risk : Reward. Entry: .003322 Stops: .0025910 Target: .004639 (the longer this takes to play out the higher the target) Never Trust. Verify. D.Y.O.R . Not Financial Advice, this is my trading journal. Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
Long
by TribeWriter666
NIFTY Crazy shortBackground NIFTY filled the large gap it created - . This is the zone, where I expected sudden movement and stood away from trading in that zone. This gap is not filled and NIFTY is looking as bullish as it can get. So from trend following perspective, only 'the stupid' trader can short NIFTY or BANK NIFTY. But very few times, crazy traders can bet on reversal. If it works out, it just looks great. If it does not, y ou may lose a lot of your hard earned money. Idea I observe that, during this up swing, from June start, NIFTY always reverses back briefly to its moving average. I took a 15 day exponential moving average as reference. Now let us assume, NIFTY repeats this behaviour. It may be a good idea to short it during expansion , usually mid to mid late in the reversion cycle. And then exit when it touches the 15 day exponential moving average. Let's look at the data of earlier mean reversions. Starting from May 27 cycle Cycle#1 : 13 days -> 8 Up : 5 down Cycle#2 : 19 days -> 17 up : 2 down Cycle#3 : 13 days -> 9 up : 4 down Cycle#4 : 9 days -> 8 up : 1 down Let us also study price movement Cycle#1 : 8 up covered 14% and ema moved 7.5% Cycle#2 : 17 up covered 10% and ema moved 7.5% Cycle#3 : 13 days -> 9 up covered 6.5% and ema moved 3.8% Cycle#4 : 9 days -> 8 up covered 3.35% and ema moved 1.5% NIFTY is in Cycle#5 NIFTY has moved for 10 days up and covered 4%. In this move EMA has moved 2%. As VIX is below 20, there is a good probability that some kind of mean reversion behaviour will happen in the next 10 days. Even if there is similar momentum the moving average will go up by 2%. Currently 15 EMA is around 11400. What can go wrong NIFTY keeps climbing steadily and never touches its 15 moving average in more than next 10 days. The 15 day moving average overcomes my entry price, making it surely a loss making trade. I’ll exit the trade there There can be very large upside movement causing the whole plan to get messed up. There is reversion, but NIFTY is just short of 15 day moving average and reverses quickly without touching it. Overall, if all these risks are assumed, the trade looks good. Hence I shorted 2 lots Future August 27 : SEP FUT @11572 August 28 : SEP FUT @ 11665 Current target 11400 In this strategy target gets updated every day and there is no stop loss.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
CMG Expectation of Reversion to Mean after Earnings DisappointmeI think CMG has accumulated way too much hype and expectation in the recent run-up, which has caused the stock to rise above a flagging technical indicator. I expect that Earnings coming out Tuesday after market close will either disappoint or will fail to sustain the bull run any further, and that CMG will "revert back to the mean" by forming a significant down-leg returning it to the steady-state zig-zag pattern of matching up-and-down trends.
NYSE:CMGShort
by ambientdrone