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Riskmanagment

Skeptic | RSI Masterclass: Unlock Pro-Level Trading Secrets!Hey traders, it’s Skeptic ! 😎 Ready to transform your trading? 95% of you are using the Relative Strength Index wrong , and I’m here to fix that with a game-changing strategy I’ve backtested across 200+ trades. This isn’t a generic RSI tutorial—it’s packed with real-world setups, myth-busting insights, and precise rules to trade with confidence. Join me to master the art of RSI and trade with clarity, discipline, and reason. Big shoutout to TradingView for this epic free tool! 🙌 Let’s dive in! 🚖 What Is RSI? The Core Breakdown The Relative Strength Index (RSI) , crafted by Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures a market’s strength by comparing average gains to average losses over a set period. Here’s the formula: G = average gains over n periods, L = average losses. Relative Strength (RS) = | G / L |. RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS)). Wilder used a 14-period lookback , and I stick with it—it’s smooth, filters noise, and gives a crystal-clear read on buyer or seller momentum. Let’s get to the good stuff—how I use RSI to stack profits! 📊 My RSI Strategy: Flipping the Script Forget what you’ve read in books like The Handbook of Technical Analysis by Mark Andrew Lim— overbought (70) and oversold (30) aren’t just for shorting or buying. I go long when RSI hits overbought, and it’s been a goldmine. I’ve backtested over 200 trades with this approach, and it’s my go-to confirmation for daily setups. Why does it work? When RSI hits overbought on my 15-minute entry chart, it signals explosive buyer momentum. Here’s what you get: Lightning-Fast R/R: I hit risk/reward targets in 30 minutes to 2 hours on 15-minute entries (longer for 1-hour entries, depending on your timeframe). Massive R/R Potential: An overbought RSI on 15-minute can push 1-hour and 4-hour RSI into overbought, driving bigger moves. I hold for R/Rs of 5 or even 10, not bailing early. 🚀 Rock-Solid Confirmation: RSI confirms my entry trigger. Take BTC/USD: BTC bounces off a key support at 76,000, sparking an uptrend. It forms a 4-hour box range, but price tests the ceiling more than the floor, hinting at a breakout. Trigger: Break above the box ceiling at 85,853.57. On 15-minute, a powerful candle breaks the ceiling, and RSI hits overbought—that’s my green light. I open a long. Soon, 1-hour and 4-hour RSI go overbought, signaling stronger momentum. I hold, and BTC pumps hard, hitting high R/R in a short window. This keeps trades fast and efficient—quick wins or quick stops mean better capital management and less stress. Slow trades? They’re a mental grind, pushing you to close early for tiny R/Rs. 😴 Pro Rules for RSI Success Here’s how to wield RSI like a trading weapon: Stick to the Trend : Use RSI in the direction of the main trend (e.g., uptrend = focus on longs). Confirmation Only: Never use RSI solo for buy/sell signals. Pair it with breakouts or support/resistance triggers. Fresh Momentum: RSI is strongest when it just hits overbought/oversold. If the move’s already rolling, skip it—no FOMO, walk away! Customize Zones: Overbought (70) and oversold (30) can shift—it might show reactions at 65 or 75. Adjust to your market’s behavior. Backtesting RSI: Your Path to Mastery To make RSI yours, backtest it across at least 30 trades in every market cycle— uptrend, downtrend, and range. Test in volatile markets for extra edge. 😏 Key takeaways: Range Markets Kill RSI: Momentum oscillators like RSI (or SMA) are useless in ranges—no momentum, no signal. Switch to ROC (Rate of Change) for ranges—I use it, and it’s a beast. Want an ROC guide? Hit the comments! Overextended RSI Zones: On your entry timeframe (e.g., 15-minute), check higher timeframes (e.g., 4-hour) for past RSI highs/lows. These are overextended zones—price often rejects or triggers a range. Use them to take profits. Final Vibe Check This RSI masterclass is your key to trading like a pro—fast R/Rs, big wins, and unshakable confidence . At Skeptic Lab, we live by No FOMO, no hype, just reason. Guard your capital— max 1% risk per trade, no excuses. Want an ROC masterclass or more tools? Drop a comment! If this fired you up, smash that boost—it means everything! 😊 Got a setup or question? Hit me in the comments. Stay sharp, fam! ✌️
Education
by SkepticLab
1
Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods. The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself. The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
CBOE:VIXLong
by UDIS_View
Stop Hunting for Perfection - Start Managing Risk.Stop Hunting for Perfection — Start Managing Risk. Hard truth: Your obsession with perfect setups costs you money. Markets don't reward perfectionists; they reward effective risk managers. Here's why your perfect entry is killing your results: You ignore good trades waiting for ideal setups — they rarely come. You double-down on losing trades, convinced your entry was flawless. You're blindsided by normal market moves because you didn’t plan for imperfection. 🎯 Solution? Shift your focus from entry perfection to risk management. Define your maximum acceptable loss, stick to it, and scale into trades strategically. TrendGo wasn't built to promise perfect entries. It was built to clarify probabilities and structure risk. 🔍 Stop chasing unicorns. Focus on managing the horses you actually ride.
NYSE:CCJEducation
by TrendGo_Official
Effective inefficiencyStop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order. Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name. Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it. For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness? Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types. Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones. Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here. Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy. Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”. Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so. What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses. Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions. So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero. The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate: Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L) Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market. For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (<60%) with a ratio of 1.5:1, or increase the ratio (>1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself. Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find. Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa. For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”. In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other. Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small. As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline. For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another. In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about: - Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies. - Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price. - Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others. - No leverage. I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy. In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26/02/2025Last week the Judas Swing strategy had another action-packed week! As we took four trades across our selected currency pairs ( FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , FX:EURUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ), securing two wins and two losses, but still closing the week with a solid 2% gain. Given the strategy’s consistency over the past few weeks and months, we were eager to see how it would perform this week. On Monday, we waited for a setup on FX:EURUSD , but it fell just a few pipettes short of meeting all the criteria on our checklist. Since one key requirement wasn’t met, we stayed disciplined and skipped the trade. Now, here’s the important part—although that trade ended up being a winner, it didn’t bother us. Why? Because it didn’t align with our strategy, and we don’t risk our hard-earned money on trades that don’t check all the boxes. If you find yourself entering random trades, it’s time to create a checklist and stick to it. Discipline is what separates consistent traders from gamblers. Fast forward to Wednesday, we spotted a promising setup on FX:AUDUSD and we were eager to see how the session would unfold. After a sweep of liquidity at the lows, our focus immediately shifted to potential buying opportunities. Once we got a break of structure to the upside, all that was left was a retrace into the FVG before executing the trade. But patience was key—we reminded ourselves of Monday’s setup, where a similar scenario played out, yet the retrace never came. That trade had to be left behind, and we weren’t about to force an entry this time either Finally, price retraced into the FVG, and as soon as that candle closed, we were ready to execute the trade. We risk 1% per trade with the goal of securing a 2% return ensuring our wins outweigh our losses over time. With this strategy’s win rate hovering around 50%, sticking to our rules keeps us on the path to long-term profitability After entering the trade, we experienced a slight drawdown for less than five minutes, dipping just 2 pips nothing out of the ordinary. Our entry candle had closed in our intended direction, so we stayed patient. Soon after, price moved decisively in our favor, hitting our target in just 1 hour and 10 minutes. Our patience paid off this time with a solid 2% return on a trade where we had only risked 1%.
by CleoFinance
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!📢 Welcome to the 2025 Mentorship Program! Greetings, Traders! This is the first video of the 2025 Mentorship Program, where I’ll be releasing content frequently, diving deep into ICT concepts, and most importantly, developing structured models around them. My goal is to help you gain a deeper understanding of the market and refine your approach to trading. Before we get started, I want to take a moment to speak to you directly. 💭 No matter where you are in your trading journey, I pray that you achieve—and even surpass—your goals this year. 📈 If you’re striving for consistency and discipline, may you reach new heights. 💡 If you’ve already found success, may you retain and refine your craft—because growth never stops. 🎯 If you’re just starting out, I pray you develop patience, discipline, and above all, accountability—because true progress comes when we own our failures and learn from them. 🔥 If you’ve been trading for years but still struggle with consistency, do not give up. The greatest adversity comes when you’re closest to success. Stay disciplined, stay dedicated, and keep pushing forward. Above all, let this be a year where we grow together—not just as traders, but as individuals. May we foster humility, respect, and a learning environment where both experienced and new traders can share knowledge and thrive. 🙏 I pray over these things in the name of Jesus. Amen. Let's have a great year! The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
18
GALAComprehensive Analysis of GALA 🔹 Project Introduction: GALA is a blockchain-based ecosystem focused on developing decentralized gaming (GameFi) and NFTs. The project aims to give players full control over their in-game assets while introducing a new economic model for the gaming industry. 📊 Technical Analysis of GALA/USDT 🔍 Overall Market Condition: GALA is currently trading within a mid-term ascending channel and is sitting at a key support zone that will determine the next major price direction. 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Key Support Zone: $0.02435 – $0.02684 (Blue Box) If this support holds, the price could move toward the midline of the ascending channel. The next major resistance lies within the red zone: $0.05949 – $0.06914 This resistance acts as a crucial ceiling for the price. 🚀 Potential Targets After Breaking the Red Resistance: ✅ TP1: Channel Top ✅ TP2: Breakout Above the Channel → Higher Price Levels 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If the blue support zone fails to hold: The price could drop to the bottom of the ascending channel + weekly support 🏁 (Gray Box) Losing this level may trigger a new bearish trend. 📈 Trend Confirmation Factors: ✔ Increasing volume on breakouts → Confirms bullish momentum ✔ Declining volume on pullbacks → Indicates weak selling pressure ✔ RSI near 50: A move towards 70 (Overbought Zone) signals bullish strength 📌 Summary & Suggested Strategy: 🔹 Holding the blue support → Targeting the red resistance 🔹 Breaking the red resistance → Potential move towards TP1 🔹 Breakout above the channel → Strong bullish rally 🔹 Heavy rejection → Key support at the bottom of the channel (Gray Box) ⚠️Risk Management: Monitor trading volume & RSI behavior to confirm breakouts or reversals.
Long
by alizeynali69
The 3 Step Risk Managment Booster StrategyThis is important for you to digest the power of risk management is very important for you to understand this next strategy I called it "the risk management booster strategy" is not easy because it will force you to trade with discipline Its very popular to just jump the gun in trading and enter the market order so what is the risk management booster strategy? only use the following: -Stop orders -limit orders -Pivot Points Indicator for entry This 3 step risk management system will help you trade with the discipline that you need in the financial markets to learn more rocket boost this content look at the chart of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA based on this strategy you can see the place to place a buy order. trade safe. Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies Also feel free to use a simulation trading account.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by lubosi
TrueFi (TRU)Comprehensive Analysis of TRU/USDT Overview TrueFi (TRU) is an innovative project in the decentralized lending space (DeFi Lending) that enables collateral-free lending. The TRU coin is among the low-market-cap cryptocurrencies, and due to its low liquidity and high volatility 🚨, it falls into the category of high-risk trades. For investing or trading this coin, risk management and attention to trading volume are essential. Current Market Situation Downtrend Channel: 📉 TRU’s price is currently in a downtrend channel and is heading towards the bottom of the channel. Weekly Support Zone: The range (0.0605 - 0.0662) acts as a key support level. Although there is a possibility of a drop below this range, a quick rebound (Fake Breakout) from this zone could signal a safe entry. 💡 Trading Volume: 📊 If the volume increases when the price bounces from the channel’s bottom, the likelihood of price rising to the top of the channel strengthens. Traders should pay close attention to volume near the support range. RSI: 📈 RSI Support Zone: The range (41.24 - 44.19) could prevent further decline. A breakdown of this zone could lead to a deeper drop. Breaking the 50 RSI Zone: A move above this level could indicate a strong upward move, providing a good entry opportunity. 🚀 Upcoming Scenarios Bullish Scenario: 🌟 Bounce from the Bottom of the Downtrend Channel: If the price stabilizes in the support range (0.0605 - 0.0662) and trading volume increases, an upward move to the top of the channel becomes likely. Breakout of the Downtrend Channel’s Top: If the top of the downtrend channel is broken, the price could reach the target range (0.2258 - 0.2702). Given TRU's low market cap, heavy liquidity inflow could push the price beyond this target. 📌 Bearish Scenario: ⚠️ Loss of Weekly Support: If the range (0.0605 - 0.0662) is lost, the next support is at 0.0400. Traders should set appropriate stop-loss orders to mitigate risk. 🛑 Weakness in RSI: A breakdown of the support zone (41.24 - 44.19) in the RSI could signal a continuation of the downtrend. 🔻 Range-Bound Scenario: ⏸️ If the price remains within the weekly support zone and trading volume decreases, a short-term range-bound movement may develop. 🔄 Stop-Loss: For long trades, set the stop-loss below the 0.0600 range. ❌ Trade Volume: Given the high risk, it is recommended to allocate only a small percentage of capital to this trade. 💰 Summary TRU, considering its technical setup and position in the downtrend channel, can present promising trading opportunities. However, due to its low market cap and high volatility, risk management is crucial. ⚡ Recommendation: Always review fundamental factors and project-related news before making any decisions. 📰 ⚖️ Warning: This analysis is purely technical and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and practice risk management. Good luck! 🚀
by alizeynali69
GMXGMX/USDT Analysis 📊 Introduction GMX token is considered one of the high-risk assets in the cryptocurrency market, as its relatively low market cap leads to significant price volatility. However, GMX has attracted considerable attention from investors due to its high growth potential in areas related to DeFi and decentralized contracts. In this analysis, we will examine GMX's price structure within a descending channel and explore the possible scenarios ahead. 🔎 Technical Analysis Overall Trend in the Descending Channel Channel Structure: GMX is currently moving within a descending channel and has experienced a sharp price correction after hitting the upper boundary of the channel. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (Yellow): The range of $26.50 - $27.26, a break above which could pave the way for a bullish move. Midline of the Descending Channel: This level plays a crucial role in determining the current trend, and breaking above it would be a strong indication of buyer dominance. Bullish Scenario (Breakout of Resistance Zone) If the price breaks the yellow resistance zone and stabilizes above it, a bullish move is likely to gain momentum. After breaking both the resistance and the midline of the channel, the price will approach the upper boundary of the channel. A breakout here could lead to further upward movement towards target levels. Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $44.57 - $47.86 TP2: $57.68 - $61.98 TP3: $77.88 - $82 🔍 Key Insight: Due to GMX’s low market cap, a significant influx of liquidity could push the price even beyond these targets. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI moving above the midline serves as a critical confirmation, signaling bullish momentum alongside the breakout from the resistance zone and the midline of the descending channel. Volume An increase in trading volume during the breakout of the resistance zone and midline is crucial. High volume can prevent fake breakouts and provide confirmation for the continuation of the bullish trend. 🔒 Risk Management Key Points Suggested Entry Point: Enter after the breakout of the yellow resistance zone ($26.50 - $27.26) and price stabilization above it. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the lower boundary of the descending channel to mitigate the risk of potential volatility. Trade Volume Management: Given GMX’s high volatility and inherent risk, the trade volume should be adjusted according to the investor's risk tolerance. ✨ Final Conclusion The analysis suggests that GMX token has significant growth potential, especially if key resistance levels are broken and new liquidity flows into the market. However, monitoring technical confirmations (such as RSI and trading volume) and staying alert to market trends are crucial for successful trade entry.
Long
by alizeynali69
Axie Infinity (AXS)🎯 Introduction AXS (Axie Infinity Shards) is the native token of the Axie Infinity ecosystem, a popular blockchain-based game operating on the "Play-to-Earn" model. Players can earn AXS tokens by breeding, battling, and trading digital creatures known as "Axies." This token is also used in governance mechanisms, staking, and in-game transactions. The growth in AXS’s value is tied to the ongoing development of the game and its wider adoption within the cryptocurrency world. 📊 AXS Technical Analysis Current Status: On the weekly timeframe, AXS is in a long-term range-bound zone: 📈 Range High: Red zone (11.186 - 12.605) 📉 Range Low: Gray zone (3.840 - 4.414) Key Support and Resistance Zones: Daily Support: Purple zone (5.581 - 5.932) This zone has acted as a key support level. If lost, the price is likely to fall toward the lower range (gray zone). Daily Resistance: Yellow zone (6.910 - 7.328) Breaking through this level could trigger a price move towards the range high (red zone). Upcoming Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If the purple support zone holds and the yellow resistance is broken: Move towards the range high (red zone). A breakout above the red zone will lead to price targets based on Fibonacci levels: 🎯 TP1: 20.007 - 24.056 🎯 TP2: 41.929 - 48.315 🎯 TP3: 67.896 - 77.108 Important Note: At each of these targets, profit-taking 💵 is strongly advised. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If the purple support zone is lost, the price may drop towards the lower range (gray zone). 🎯 Suggested Entry Points: Break above the daily yellow resistance with a stop loss below the gray zone. Break above the red resistance with a stop loss below the purple zone. Indicators and Volume: RSI: Crossing above the midpoint of the RSI may indicate a bullish move. Entering the Overbought region could lead to sharp upward movements 🚀. 📊 Volume Analysis: Increased volume during resistance breaks is crucial; otherwise, there’s a higher risk of false breakouts. 📌 Summary: AXS is currently at a critical level. Price behavior in relation to the identified support and resistance zones will determine the future trend. Effective risk management through stop-loss and close monitoring of trading volume are key to success in trading this coin. 💡 Recommendation: Always consider the overall market conditions and any related news regarding the Axie Infinity project before making trading decisions.
Long
by alizeynali69
The Two Archetypes of TradersIn the trading world, markets move in cycles, and bearish conditions are no exception. Here's an educational breakdown of how traders can navigate these challenging times: 1. The Long-Term Holders (Investors) Mindset: Patience is their superpower. Goal: Accumulate assets during bearish trends by buying at key support levels and holding for future gains. Approach: Use the WiseOwl Indicator to identify areas of strong support and potential accumulation zones for strategic entries. 2. The Intraday Traders (Short-Term) Mindset: Adaptability and precision are crucial. Goal: Profit from short-term price movements, capitalizing on market volatility. Approach: Utilize the WiseOwl Indicator to pinpoint bearish momentum for short entries and clear exit levels, ensuring optimal risk management. Educational Example: WiseOwl Strategy in Action Let’s analyze Solana (SOL) on the 15-minute timeframe during a bearish market: Trend Identification: The WiseOwl Indicator highlights a confirmed downtrend with clear bearish signals. Entry Points: Short trade signals are generated at moments of significant bearish momentum. Risk Management: Stop loss and take profit levels, calculated using ATR-based logic, ensure disciplined trading. Takeaways for Traders 📉 Bearish Markets: Holders focus on identifying value areas for accumulation. Intraday traders capitalize on market volatility with precise entries and exits. Happy trading! 🚀 #WiseOwlIndicator #TradingEducation #BearMarket #SOLAnalysis #CryptoTrading
Education
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
TradeCityPro | XVS & Bitcoin : Key Levels and Insights👋Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I want to review XVS for you. This token is the native token of the Venus project, which operates on the BSC network and specializes in the DeFi sector. It boasts the highest TVL on this network. This platform allows users to collateralize their assets and borrow funds proportionate to their collateral. Currently, the platform's TVL stands at $1.8 billion, and XVS ranks 361 on CoinMarketCap. 👑 Before analyzing XVS, it's better to take a look at Bitcoin to better understand the market conditions. The Bitcoin analysis is done on the 4-hour timeframe. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Correction Phase in Bitcoin On the 4-hour timeframe, after breaking the $72,771 resistance (the previous ATH), we witnessed a very sharp, high-momentum move up to $99,022. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase. The first significant support in this timeframe is $92,004, which overlaps with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The price has already reached this level. At the same time, the SMA99 has also aligned with the candles in this area, turning this level into a very strong PRZ. ✨ The RSI oscillator has triggered divergence, exiting the lower Bollinger Band several times, which has eliminated the bullish momentum. However, the most important thing in a bullish market is that when the RSI approaches the 30 level, it often represents a good buying opportunity. Using the Bollinger Band indicator, we can better determine trend reversals and RSI triggers. However, all of these require price confirmation, which can be achieved through Dow Theory rules or short-term resistance breakouts. 📊 On the other hand, the volume of corrective candles is increasing, which is not a good sign for the correction's end and makes the bearish scenario more likely. 🔑 If the $92,004 support breaks, the next key support is $86,841, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is likely to serve as a major support during this correction. For now, I won't discuss other supports; if $86,841 is broken, I'll determine the rest later. ✅ XVS Analysis: Weekly and Daily Timeframes 📅 Weekly Timeframe: Long-Term Box On this timeframe, the price previously formed a long-term box between $3.17 and $9.19. After breaking this range, a new box was formed between $5.29 and $17.43, where the price currently trades in the lower half of the box and is struggling with resistance at $9.19. 🔼 The previous weekly candle was very strong and powerful but couldn't break the $9.19 level. The current candle is also rejecting from this level. For spot buying, breaking this resistance or $17.43 is suitable. The potential targets are $40.22 and $140.26, with $140.26 being the ATH for this coin. 📉 In case of a drop, the first support is at $5.29, and on the RSI, there is a significant support level at 39.32, which can prevent a price decline. If this support is broken, the next level is $3.17, the all-time low for this coin. 📅 Daily Timeframe: Strong Resistance Zone On the daily timeframe, the $9.19 resistance can be drawn as a range between $8.18 and $8.91, which is very important. Currently, the price is rejecting from $8.91 and has dropped to $8.18. 🔍 The main and significant support on this chart is the ascending trendline, which previously experienced a false breakout. If the price stabilizes below $8.18, the next corrective target will be reaching this trendline. 💣 If the trendline breaks, the next support is $5.98, which is a strong resistance since the market previously reversed from this level after a false trendline breakout and reached the $8.91 high. 🧩 If the RSI stabilizes above 66.27, the price can start pumping because it has already hit this level twice and been rejected. If the RSI breaks below 50, bearish momentum will enter the market, and the bearish scenario will strengthen. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
5
Discipline Over MotivationSuccess in trading doesn't come from motivation—it comes from discipline. Motivation will get you started, but discipline will keep you consistent, even on the tough days." In trading, emotions often try to take control. Fear of missing out, revenge trading, or overconfidence can lead to poor decisions. Discipline means following your plan no matter how you feel. Consistency is the bridge between your trading plan and long-term results. Without it, even the best strategies can fail. How to Stay Disciplined? Define Your Rules: Have a clear entry, exit, and risk management plan before you trade. Track Your Performance: Use a journal to review trades—both wins and losses. Take Breaks: A tired mind leads to impulsive decisions. Detach from Outcomes: Focus on the process, not on winning every trade. Remember: The best traders aren't the most motivated—they're the most disciplined.
by Safaric
EURNZD the standout in Long-Currency's in Asia trade Wedesday Hi everyone, I got into this trade not long ago to the long-side, but as it has plenty of potential I thought I would share. On the 4HR timeframe, there is currently a bullish heads 'n' shoulders pattern adding some buying fuel. There was a recent pullback so a good time to enter if you are after a Long trade. On the chart, the indicator at the bottom is on-balance-volume which has had a good uptick today so far. This trade is also trend-friendly, this is a Daily chart and you will see the thicker white line which is the 200EMA, the thinner dark-blue is 50EMA and Crimson colour is 100EMA. The very thick white arrowed line is the heads n shoulders neckline where price has broken out this morning.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
When Does a $433.5 Million Settlement Become a Victory for Both In the complex landscape of corporate litigation, Alibaba's recent settlement presents a fascinating case study of modern business strategy. While the Chinese e-commerce giant agrees to pay $433.5 million to settle shareholder allegations, this decision might paradoxically represent a win-win scenario for both the company and its investors. The settlement, ranking among the top 50 largest securities class actions in U.S. history, raises intriguing questions about the balance between corporate governance and strategic business decisions. What makes this case particularly compelling is the mathematics of risk management. When faced with potential damages of $11.63 billion, Alibaba's decision to settle for $433.5 million reveals a sophisticated calculation of risk versus reward. This settlement, representing less than 4% of the maximum potential damages, demonstrates how modern corporations can transform legal challenges into strategic opportunities for resolution and renewal. The implications of this settlement extend far beyond Alibaba's balance sheet. As global markets increasingly scrutinize tech giants' practices, this case sets a precedent for how international corporations might navigate the complex intersection of antitrust regulations, shareholder rights, and market competition. The resolution suggests that in today's business environment, the true measure of corporate success might lie not in avoiding challenges, but in transforming them into opportunities for organizational evolution and stakeholder alignment.
NYSE:BABAShort
by MorMedia
SILVER price shorting in Asian trade Thursday Gold and Silver price(s) are above their 200 period moving averages and their continued uptrend seems reasonable to happen in the short to perhaps medium term, before a pullback correction kicks-into-gear for the precious metals. So far during Thursday and as the London session begins around this time, Gold is up about 0.3% and Silver is down about -0.3%, so due to this divergence in price I took a Long in XAGUSD. It's only a 1:1 trade.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
The 1% Rule: A Key to Long-Term Trading SuccessUnderstanding the 1% Risk Management Strategy in Trading Effective risk management is the backbone of successful trading, helping traders preserve capital and avoid emotional decision-making. The 1% risk management strategy is one of the most widely used approaches, aimed at limiting the potential loss on any single trade to 1% of your total trading capital. Let’s break down how this strategy works and why it’s essential for both novice and experienced traders. What Is the 1% Risk Rule? The 1% risk rule ensures that a trader never risks more than 1% of their account balance on a single trade. For example, if you have $20,000 in your account, you would limit your risk to $200 on any given trade. The idea behind this rule is to safeguard your account from catastrophic losses that could occur from consecutive losing trades . How to Apply the 1% Risk Rule To apply the 1% rule effectively, you need to combine position sizing with stop-loss orders. Here’s how you can implement this strategy: 1. Determine Your Account Risk: Calculate 1% of your trading capital. For example, with a $10,000 account, 1% equals $100. This is the maximum amount you’re willing to lose on a single trade. 2. Set a Stop-Loss: A stop-loss helps cap your losses at the 1% threshold. If you’re buying shares of a stock at $50 and decide on a stop-loss 1 point below, your “cents at risk” is $1 per share. If you’re willing to lose $100, you can buy 100 shares ($100 / $1 per share risk). 3. Position Sizing: The size of your trade depends on the risk per share. By determining your stop-loss level, you calculate how many shares you can buy to keep your total loss within the 1% limit. This process prevents you from taking excessively large positions that could lead to significant losses . Why the 1% Rule Is Effective The 1% rule is effective because it keeps your potential losses small relative to your total capital. Even during periods of losing streaks, this strategy prevents large drawdowns that could lead to emotional trading or complete account wipeout. For instance, if you experience a string of ten losing trades in a row, you would only lose 10% of your capital, giving you plenty of opportunities to recover without significant emotional stress . Advantages of the 1% Risk Rule 1. Protects Your Capital: By risking only a small portion of your account on each trade, you prevent significant losses that could deplete your account. 2. Encourages Discipline: Sticking to the 1% rule helps instill discipline, keeping traders from making impulsive trades that deviate from their trading plan. 3. Provides Flexibility: The rule works for all market conditions and strategies, whether you are trading stocks, forex, or other assets. As long as you adhere to the 1% threshold, you can trade confidently without fear of losing too much on any single trade . The Risk-Reward Ratio An essential component of the 1% rule is pairing it with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders typically aim for a minimum reward of 2 to 3 times the risk. For example, if you’re risking $100 on a trade, you should aim for at least a $200 to $300 profit. This ensures that even with a 50% win rate, your profitable trades will outweigh your losses . Conclusion The 1% risk management strategy is a powerful tool for minimizing risk and protecting your trading capital. By incorporating proper position sizing, stop-loss orders, and a disciplined approach, you can navigate the market confidently while safeguarding your account from large drawdowns. Whether you’re a day trader or a swing trader, applying this strategy will help you build consistent success over time. By maintaining a focus on risk management, traders can shift their mindset from seeking high returns to preserving capital, which is the key to long-term success in the markets.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
1
The Formula That Helped Me Get Into in the Top 2% of TradersI spent years testing different strategies, obsessing over charts, and trying to find the perfect entry point. It took me a while to realize that it wasn’t just about picking the right trades—it was about knowing how much to risk on each trade. This is where the Kelly Criterion came into play and changed my entire approach. You’ve probably heard the saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Well, Kelly Criterion takes that idea and puts some hard math behind it to tell you exactly how much you should risk to maximize your long-term growth. It’s not a guessing game anymore—it’s math, and math doesn’t lie. What is Kelly Criterion? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps you figure out the optimal size of your trades based on your past win rate and the average size of your wins compared to your losses. It’s designed to find the perfect balance between being aggressive enough to grow your account but cautious enough to protect it from major drawdowns. F = W - (1 - W) / R F is the fraction of your account you should risk. W is your win rate (how often you win). R is your risk/reward ratio (the average win relative to the average loss). Let’s break it down. How It Works Let’s say you have a strategy that wins 60% of the time (W = 0.6), and your average win is 2x the size of your average loss (R = 2). Plugging those numbers into the formula, you’d get: F = 0.6 - (1 - 0.6) / 2 F = 0.6 - 0.4 / 2 F = 0.6 - 0.2 = 0.4 So, according to Kelly, you should risk 40% of your account on each trade. Now, 40% might seem like a lot, but this is just the theoretical maximum for optimal growth. The thing about using the full Kelly Criterion is that it’s aggressive. A 40% recommended risk allocation, for example, can be intense and lead to significant drawdowns, which is why many traders use half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly or other adjustments to manage risk. It’s a way to tone down the aggressiveness while still using the principle behind the formula. Personally, I don’t just take Kelly at face value—I factor in both the sample size (which affects the confidence level) and my max allowed drawdown when deciding how much risk to take per trade. If the law of large numbers tells us we need a good sample size to align results with expectations, then I want to make sure my risk management accounts for that. Let’s say, for instance, my confidence level is 95% (which is 0.95 in probability terms), and I don’t want to allow my account to draw down more than 10%. We can modify the Kelly Criterion like this: 𝑓 = ( ( 𝑊 − 𝐿 ) / 𝐵 )× confidence level × max allowed drawdown Where: 𝑊 = W is your win probability, 𝐿 = L is your loss probability, and 𝐵 = B is your risk-reward ratio. Let’s run this with actual numbers: Suppose your win probability is 60% (0.6), loss probability is 40% (0.4), and your risk-reward ratio is still 2:1. Using the same approach where the confidence level is 95% and the max allowed drawdown is 10%, the calculation would look like this: This gives us a risk percentage of 0.95% for each trade. So, according to this adjusted Kelly Criterion, based on a 60% win rate and your parameters, you should be risking just under 1% per trade. This shows how adding the confidence level and max drawdown into the mix helps control your risk in a more conservative and tailored way, making the formula much more usable for practical trading instead of over-leveraging. Why It’s Powerful Kelly Criterion gives you a clear, mathematically backed way to avoid overbetting on any single trade, which is a common mistake traders make—especially when they’re chasing losses or getting overconfident after a win streak. When I started applying this formula, I realized I had been risking too much on bad setups and too little on the good ones. I wasn’t optimizing my growth. Once I dialed in my risk based on the Kelly Criterion, I started seeing consistent growth that got me in the top 2% of traders on TradingView leap competition. Kelly in Action The first time I truly saw Kelly in action was during a winning streak. Before I understood this formula, I’d probably have gotten greedy and over-leveraged, risking blowing up my account. But with Kelly, I knew exactly how much to risk each time, so I could confidently scale up while still protecting my downside. Likewise, during losing streaks, Kelly kept me grounded. Instead of trying to "make it back" quickly by betting more, the formula told me to stay consistent and let the odds play out over time. This discipline was key in staying profitable and avoiding big emotional trades. Practical Use for Traders You don’t have to be a math genius to use the Kelly Criterion. It’s about taking control of your risk in a structured way, rather than letting emotions guide your decisions. Whether you’re new to trading or have been in the game for years, this formula can be a game-changer if applied correctly. Final Thoughts At the end of the day, trading isn’t just about making the right calls—it’s about managing your risks wisely. The Kelly Criterion gives you a clear path to do just that. By understanding how much to risk based on your win rate and risk/reward ratio, you’re not just gambling—you’re playing a game with a serious edge. So, whether you’re in a winning streak or facing some tough losses, keep your cool. Let the Kelly formula take care of your risk calculation. If you haven’t started using the Kelly Criterion yet, now’s the time to dive in. Calculate your win rate, figure out your risk/reward ratio, and start applying it. You’ll protect your account while setting yourself up for long-term profitability. Trust me, this is the kind of math that can change the game for you. Bonus: Custom Kelly Criterion Function in Pine Script If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, here’s a little bonus for you! I’ve put together a custom Pine Script function that calculates the optimal risk percentage based on the Kelly Criterion. You can easily enter the variables to fit your trading strategy. // @description Calculates the optimal risk percentage using the Kelly Criterion. // @function kellyCriterion: Computes the risk per trade based on win rate, loss rate, average win/loss, confidence level, and maximum drawdown. // @param winRate (float) The probability of winning trades (0-1). // @param lossRate (float) The probability of losing trades (0-1). // @param avgWin (float) The average win size in risk units. // @param avgLoss (float) The average loss size in risk units. // @param confidenceLevel (float) Desired confidence level (0-1). // @param maxDrawdown (float) Maximum allowed drawdown (0-1). // @returns (float) The calculated risk percentage for each trade. kellyCriterion(winRate, lossRate, avgWin, avgLoss, confidenceLevel, maxDrawdown) => // Calculate Kelly Fraction: Theoretical fraction of the bankroll to risk kellyFraction = (winRate - lossRate) / (avgWin / avgLoss) // Adjust the risk based on confidence level and maximum drawdown adjustedRisk = (kellyFraction * confidenceLevel * maxDrawdown) // Return the adjusted risk percentage adjustedRisk Use this function to implement the Kelly Criterion directly into your trading setup. Adjust the inputs to see how your risk percentage changes based on your trading performance!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Fractalyst
11