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Risksentiment

USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic !USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic Drivers (07/11/2024) Overview On November 7, 2024, USDJPY appears to be leaning toward a slight bearish bias as various fundamental factors impact the pair. This article delves into the primary drivers shaping USDJPY today, including central bank policy stances, global market sentiment, and economic data releases. Traders and investors on TradingView can benefit from a close analysis of these influences to navigate the USDJPY pair’s movement. Keywords: USDJPY forecast, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, technical analysis, forex market --- Key Factors Supporting a USDJPY Bearish Bias Today 1. Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve has recently shifted toward a more cautious tone on rate hikes, with key policymakers indicating a preference for a "wait-and-see" approach. This cautious stance could limit USD strength, particularly as traders anticipate no further rate hikes unless inflation surges unexpectedly. A softer dollar environment could weigh on USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Slightly More Hawkish Outlook While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has traditionally maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, recent comments from BoJ officials suggest a growing willingness to adjust policy if inflation stays persistently higher. This subtle shift in tone has sparked interest in the yen as traders reassess Japan’s inflation and policy outlook, which could add bearish pressure on USDJPY. 3. Rising Risk Aversion Risk sentiment has turned cautious in global markets, with equities slightly under pressure and investors showing renewed interest in safe-haven assets. The yen, as a traditional safe-haven currency, often benefits in times of risk aversion, making USDJPY more vulnerable to downside movement when risk sentiment fades. 4. Weak U.S. Economic Data Recent U.S. economic indicators, such as declining consumer sentiment and slower employment growth, are casting doubt on the resilience of the U.S. economy. Softer data contributes to concerns that the Fed may pause or even reverse its tightening, further pressuring USD and potentially driving USDJPY lower. 5. Technical Analysis Insights On the technical side, USDJPY is trading near significant resistance at the 150.00 level, a historically sensitive price area. If sellers defend this resistance, USDJPY could turn bearish, with initial support around 148.00. Technical indicators such as the RSI suggest USDJPY may be overbought, aligning with a potential pullback. USDJPY Today: What to Watch For - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Today's release of U.S. jobless claims data may further affect USD sentiment, particularly if the data reveals a labor market slowdown, adding to USDJPY’s bearish potential. - BoJ Commentary – Any fresh statements from BoJ officials about policy flexibility could strengthen the yen and add further pressure on USDJPY. Conclusion Today, USDJPY shows signs of a bearish bias due to dovish signals from the Fed, a potentially more hawkish BoJ, risk aversion, and weaker U.S. data. As always, traders should monitor key data releases for potential market-moving surprises that could impact USDJPY. SEO Tags : #USDJPYforecast #ForexTrading #JapaneseYen #USD #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis #ForexMarket #RiskSentiment #CentralBankPolicy #DailyForexAnalysis
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key FundamentalNZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (07/11/2024) Overview On 7th November 2024, NZDUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias, driven by key economic data releases and broader market sentiment. This article provides an in-depth look at the factors shaping NZDUSD today, including central bank commentary, global market trends, and recent shifts in risk sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD forecast, New Zealand dollar, forex trading, USD, economic data, central bank policy, risk sentiment, technical analysis, forex market --- Key Factors Supporting NZDUSD Bullish Bias Today 1. Federal Reserve Dovish Outlook Recent Federal Reserve statements have taken a slightly dovish tone, with policymakers emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. The possibility of a Fed pause on interest rates provides support to the New Zealand dollar, as market sentiment leans towards a softer USD. 2. RBNZ’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently signaled a focus on inflation control, reinforcing a hawkish stance relative to the Fed. This contrasts with other central banks, positioning NZD as an attractive currency in the current global environment. Markets are pricing in a limited chance of a rate hike from the RBNZ in the near term, which could further support NZD. 3. Improved Risk Sentiment Global markets have seen an increase in risk appetite, with equities rebounding and commodities trading higher. This shift often benefits the NZD due to its reputation as a commodity-linked and high-yield currency. As investors seek yield, demand for the New Zealand dollar may rise, enhancing NZDUSD. 4. Strong New Zealand Economic Data New Zealand’s recent economic data, including employment figures and business confidence, indicate resilience in the economy. Solid domestic growth and low unemployment rates suggest underlying strength, which could further boost NZD demand against USD. 5. Technical Analysis Indicators From a technical standpoint, NZDUSD is approaching key support levels around 0.5900, showing upward momentum and signaling a potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate that the pair may have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory, aligning with a bullish outlook. NZDUSD Today: What to Watch For - US Initial Jobless Claims – Scheduled later today, these figures may influence USD if they show a labor market slowdown, potentially adding to the Fed’s dovish stance and supporting NZDUSD. - NZDUSD’s Resistance Levels – Key resistance near 0.6050 could be tested if bullish momentum continues, while support at 0.5900 could offer a base. Conclusion Given the softer stance from the Federal Reserve and favorable economic data from New Zealand, NZDUSD shows signs of a slight bullish bias. As always, forex traders should monitor any significant data releases closely, as these could prompt volatility in NZDUSD. SEO Tags: #NZDUSDforecast #ForexTrading #NewZealandDollar #USD #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis #ForexMarket #RiskSentiment #CentralBankPolicy #DailyForexAnalysis
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions. 1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD. 2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction. 3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics. Keywords: #NZDUSDanalysis, #NewZealandDollar, #USDollar, #NZDbullishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #ReserveBankofNewZealand, #FederalReserve, #Commodityprices, #Risksentiment, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #FundamentalfactorsinForex.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
ETHBTC: The Back Bone of Risk Appetite AnalysisIntroduction: Understanding the nuances of the cryptocurrency market is challenging, especially with its inherent volatility. However, seasoned investors often rely on specific charts to gauge the market's overall sentiment. One such crucial chart is the ETHBTC chart, which is a ratio of Ethereum's price to Bitcoin's price. This article delves into how this chart can be an essential tool for discerning risk appetite in the crypto market and identifying potential altcoin outperformance compared to Bitcoin. 1. A Brief Overview of ETHBTC: The ETHBTC chart represents the value of one Ethereum (ETH) in terms of Bitcoin (BTC). When the ratio rises, it suggests that Ethereum is gaining strength relative to Bitcoin, and when it falls, Ethereum is weakening relative to Bitcoin. Solana will be used as a representative for altcoins for live examples. 2. Gauging Risk Appetite: Bullish Sentiment for Altcoins: A rising ETHBTC ratio can be an indication that the broader altcoin market is bullish. Ethereum, being the second-largest cryptocurrency, often leads altcoin rallies. When investors are optimistic about the general altcoin space, Ethereum typically sees significant gains against Bitcoin. Bearish Sentiment for Altcoins: Conversely, a falling ETHBTC ratio may indicate a more risk-averse sentiment, where investors prefer the perceived 'safe-haven' of Bitcoin over altcoins, including Ethereum. 3. Identifying Potential Outperformance of Altcoins: Early Indicators: A rising ETHBTC ratio can serve as an early signal that altcoins might start to outperform Bitcoin. When Ethereum, a bellwether for altcoins, gains strength against Bitcoin, it can foreshadow a broader altcoin rally. (depicted earlier) Reversal Points: Sharp reversals or significant inflection points in the ETHBTC chart can indicate changing market dynamics. These can be pivotal moments where market sentiment shifts, providing opportunities for astute investors. 4. Correlation with Broader Market Indicators: To get a comprehensive view, investors can also correlate the ETHBTC chart with other market metrics like total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin or volume dominance of major altcoins. Such analyses provide a more holistic understanding of where the market is heading. 5. Caveats and Considerations: While the ETHBTC chart offers valuable insights, relying solely on it can be myopic. It's vital to: Combine with Other Tools: Integrate the insights from the ETHBTC chart with other technical indicators and fundamental analyses to ensure a well-rounded investment decision. Stay Updated: The cryptocurrency market is notoriously dynamic, with rapid changes. Regularly updating oneself on global news, technological advancements, and regulatory changes is paramount. Conclusion: The ETHBTC chart is a potent tool in an investor's arsenal, offering insights into market sentiment and potential altcoin performance. However, as with all investment strategies, it's crucial to employ a multi-faceted approach, integrating various tools and staying updated to navigate the tumultuous crypto waters successfully.
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
2
The Power of Risk Management 💪 How Can Being an Average Analyst Lead to Profits? The Power of Risk Management and Risk Percentage Introduction : In the world of finance, where exceptional skills and expertise are often sought after, it may seem unlikely that being an average analyst could lead to profits. However, there is a simple formula that can help you achieve good results despite your average performance. This formula revolves around the concept of risk management, which many of us fail to implement effectively or understand correctly. Moreover, risk percentage plays a vital role in this equation, shaping the number of opportunities available to traders. The Importance of Risk Management and Risk Percentage: In our current field, there are individuals who possess the skills to read charts and build analyses but struggle to use them effectively. On the other hand, some people have the financial means but lack the ability to distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. Somewhere in between is the average individual, whose accuracy may not exceed 50%, but they may still perform better than both of the aforementioned groups. However, it's important to note that having the necessary skills, money, and proper application is a requirement for everyone in this field. Applying the Risk-to-Reward Ratio and Risk Percentage: The key lies in implementing risk management, a concept often overlooked. Let's consider a scenario where you execute 10 trades, with 5 trades reaching their targets and the other 5 hitting the stop-loss. Without proper risk management, you find yourself back at the starting point or, worse, your account shrinks. This highlights the problem that needs to be addressed. Now, let's examine the same performance but with the application of risk management, including the risk-to-reward ratio and risk percentage. By determining the risk-to-reward ratio for each trade and defining a risk percentage, we can significantly impact our results. Understanding the Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The risk-to-reward ratio plays a significant role in determining the potential profitability of your trades. A ratio of 1.5:1 or 2:1 is often considered favorable, but it's important to understand how different ratios can affect your overall trading outcomes. To grasp this concept, let's consider a risk-to-reward ratio of 1.5:1. This means you are risking $1 to potentially gain $1.5. With a 50% accuracy rate, even if you lose 5 trades out of 10, your net gains will exceed your losses. This is because the profits from the winning trades will surpass the losses from the losing trades. Similarly, a risk-to-reward ratio of 2:1 implies that you are risking $1 to potentially gain $2. With a 50% accuracy rate, even if you lose 6 trades out of 10, your net gains will still be positive. The profits from the winning trades will outweigh the losses from the losing trades. Higher risk-to-reward ratios, such as 3:1, offer even greater potential for profits. Even with a lower accuracy rate of less than 40%, you can still achieve overall profitability by allowing your winning trades to compensate for the losses. The Role of Risk Percentage: Risk percentage, on the other hand, determines the amount of capital you are willing to risk on each trade relative to your account size. By defining a specific risk percentage, such as risking 2% of your account on each trade, you establish a predetermined limit on potential losses. This ensures that your losses are controlled and do not exceed a predefined threshold, protecting your overall trading capital. Additionally, the right risk percentage opens up opportunities for multiple trades, increasing your chances of finding profitable opportunities while mitigating the impact of any individual trade that may result in a loss. For instance, imagine you have a trading account with $1,000 and decide to risk 1% on each trade. This means you are willing to risk $10 on any given trade, allowing you to potentially take 100 trades. Alternatively, if you choose to risk 0.5% per trade, you can potentially take 200 trades. It's important to strike a balance between the quantity and quality of trades when implementing the appropriate risk percentage. While having more opportunities can be beneficial, maintaining a disciplined approach and executing trades that meet your predefined criteria and align with your trading strategy is essential. Conclusion: In conclusion, being an average analyst or trader doesn't mean you can't achieve profits in the financial field. By implementing proper risk management, specifically by utilizing the risk-to-reward ratio and risk percentage, you can enhance your results significantly. Learning and understanding risk management is crucial for success in the market. So, embrace this simple formula and take charge of your trading journey, regardless of your initial performance level. Good luck to all. 🙏we ask Allah reconcile and repay🙏
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by HamadaMark
3
How to survive in the market for the long-term? In the market, regret is a frequent word. Many people face the complex investment market and often feel fear, hesitation, and regret, whether it's before buying, after buying, after selling, or just watching without buying. How to avoid this phenomenon? The fear, hesitation, and regret are largely due to not knowing how to manage positions and follow the crowd. Often pursuing high probability profits results in the opposite. Risk management is an unavoidable issue when it comes to this. Whether you are a financial master or an individual investor, the importance of risk management is paramount. To relax and operate in the market, you need to face your current situation, make correct judgments on the profit and loss ratio, determine your operating frequency and position management, and give yourself correct psychological guidance. Everyone's personality is different, and their risk tolerance and trading styles are also different. There is no strategy that is 100% accurate, but if you want to survive in the market for a long time, you need to control risk. Don't be afraid of losses. Losses are inevitable, but the key is how much loss you can tolerate. This is the core of risk management. For small losses, we need to prepare ourselves psychologically. This is a link in risk management. Don't rely on luck. The losses brought about by a lucky mentality are incalculable. About 70% of the time in market fluctuations is in oscillation, and only about 30% of the time is in a unilateral surge or decline. Therefore, accumulating small victories is the magic weapon for long-term success. Always wanting to go all-in and make a big move at once may result in missed profits due to not exiting in time. No matter what state you are in now, I hope I can bring you a little bit of help!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by triumphing
Stocks Will Stabilize When Aussie Finds The SupportHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about stocks and Aussie (AUDUSD) pair regarding risk-on/risk-off sentiment, so if you are wondering when stocks will be back to bullish mode, then keep an eye on Aussie. As you can see on the left correlation chart between SP500 and AUDUSD pair, always when Aussie finds the support, we see SP500 stabilization. Well, if we take a look on the right Aussie chart from Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a corrective movement, ideally a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) decline. We are already tracking final wave (Y), but it has to be finished in three legs A-B-C and as you can see, wave C is still missing. So, if we are on the right path, then stocks might not be ready for a bull-run yet, until Aussie fully completes its corrective decline, where final leg may also occur as a spike down like back in March 2020 and January 2019. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
1
Risk Model for Swing Traders (US)The different technical and psychological market indicators in our risk model for swing traders (US stock market) are discussed. The updated risk model rating is deep red, current recommendation is to be patient and stay on the sidelines until market conditions for swing-trading are getting better again. The following indicators are being discussed: 1. Market-Indices (Distribution Days Avg) 2. New 52w Highs / Lows 3. Stocks above/below 200d MA 4. Up / Down Volume 5. Advance-Decline Line 6. Volatility Index VIX 7. Bulls vs Bears 8. Margin-Debt
CBOE:VIXLong
by JS_TechTrading
Weekly Market recap 8: Are markets preparing for the advance?Mixed west with strength in Asia The week started with mixed markets. The US and European markets are still digesting gains staying in the range near their respective key resistance areas. Asian markets show some signs of strength following NIKKEI's recent powerful breakout from the long-term range. Smaller markets like India, Indonesia, Singapore also show positive dynamics compared to the US and Europe. It seems like the risk-seeking sentiment is there, although it didn't get to manifest itself in the west yet. What's next? Looking at DXY declining for three consecutive days, it makes sense that inflows into the risk assets continue. Let's see how DXY will behave near the local low at 92.15 and eventually at the last line of defence of DXY at 91.75. This period requires additional patience and selectivity in setups and instruments in FX and major western indices. Although, for those willing to try Asian markets, there is an established trend environment to try out.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94
Best Bond Trading StrategiesBonds have been ranging in a sideways Elliott Wave for some time now. However they appear to be nearing the completion of this cycle. The rounding highs, suggest a breakout to the downside, compounded with the fact that the Kovach OBV, which has been pretty strong, appears to be rounding off. Wait for a squeeze to 139'13 or 139'16, but if risk on sentiment persists 139'05 may be a reasonable target. Keep your eye on the ghostsquawk risk sentiment indicator. Yesterday, it was spot on, and we were able to capture some significant trades from it.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Top Ideas for StocksStocks pushed lower overnight, getting a lift from 2940. We have breached the psychologically and technically important 3000 level. Based on the Elliott Wave, we are still in a 'reasonable' correction for an overall bullish move, but today seems pivotal. If we break current levels, we could retrace the entire move from May, and this would constitute a bear market. Watch for markets to either range, digesting news, or rally again if the Fed steps in or risk on sentiment picks up. Watch 2940 and 2871, if more risk off sentiment pours in.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
The Best Yield Curve Tutorial You've Ever ReadThe two year has remained relatively flat since this week's open. However it did gap up significantly. Why is the 30 year falling (see linked article) while the two year remains consistent? Bonds of different maturities care about different things. In particular, the shorter end of the spectrum cares less about the long term effects of inflation and the general position in the economic cycle than the long end. Why? Those effects will be felt less in two years than the short term effects of interest rate decisions or the sentiment about it. Conversely, the 30 year has more time to price in these factors. It has to take in the considerations above, and more. Hence why the 30 year is tumbling right now, as it's more sensitive to risk sentiment and longer term factors. Don't forget that bonds are fixed income products, meaning they pay a yield that is inversely proportional to the price. The difference between the yield at either end of the spectrum is commonly referred to as the yield curve . The yield curve could also refer to a plot of the set of all yields on treasury products of various maturities. The difference between the two ends could narrow, or flatten . It could also steepen . Furthermore, that flattening or steepening could be driven by either end. In this case it is led by the long end. Since prices are decreasing (on account of risk on sentiment), we call this a long end led bear steepener . If you liked this analysis, subscribe for more content. Also check us out at Ghost Squawk!
CBOT:ZT1!Education
by quantguy
Top Trading Strategy for StocksStocks ain't got time for coronavirus, trade tensions with China, or riots and civil unrest in the United States. The S&P has broken out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern and solidly established new monthly highs. This is most likely the beginning of a new Elliott Wave impulse. Both Kovach momentum indicators are very bullish at this point, so wait for a squeeze before open. This risk on sentiment seems to be off earnings and upgrade ratings. Oil traders seem exuberant over an OPEC+ output cut extension which won't hurt either.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
JPYBASKET's RSI Charts Potential Failure Swing TopFurther to our previous article , the JPYBASKET broke out of its flag formation and headed towards the pattern's target. This, as risk-off sentiment dominates markets and safe havens, like the JPY, benefit. However, it is worth noting that the RSI has pushed down from the 80 level (blue rectangle) in a pattern referred to as a RSI failure swing top. The failure swing is usually an indication that price may be correcting i.e. pulling back from its recent impulse move up. Thus, the flag's target may not be met (at least in the near term). However, any decline here may prove to be a low risk entry opportunity, especially if the risk-off sentiment that is permeating through the risk market continues to persist.
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by FXCM
DXY: Market OverviewThe leading indicator has already pointed out exhausted bullish. Technically talking we all can see dxy has extended a lot high due to some past week greenback power over most of its counterparts. Last week it was an almost risk-off market situation where safe haven did most well and the case dollar been dragging most of its counterpart creating some bullish momentum on dxy. The situation doesn't seem well for dxy bulls at this point when we saw a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which indicating bearish momentum gradually increasing at the market. To consider properly we know how pound, euro, Aussie (mainly) and kiwi trying to lead over greenback at the moment and overall market risk sentiment changed when NY trader entered the market. I assume if the market player avoids risk aversion and gets nasty over chasing risky assets then counterparts of greenback may perform well especially those comdolls and which will eventually help dxy bears to drag the price further lower. Technically we can see stoch did hang around a couple of times in its overbought zone but finally it leaves the 80 zone!
TVC:DXY
by Anatta0
AUDCHF Short BiasAussie pairs got a good boost from the RBA decision in the Asian session as the central bank sounded optimistic about global and domestic growth prospects. However, this bullish reaction might be short-lived as market players remain mostly risk-averse while coronavirus contagion fears are present. AUD/CHF is trading below 200 SMA visible on its 1-hour time frame which aligns with the descending trendline acting as a major resistance, stoch point out oversold. Price rejecting from the 200 SMA and descending trendline and falling below the weekly pivot point should point of bearish sentiment weight over this cross pair and the if the coronavirus fear doesn't end at the point swiss franc being lower-yielding might keep taking advantage of risk-off flows!
by Anatta0
1
AUDUSD Trade Opinion and IdeaA somewhat dovish set of RBA meeting minutes and a round of negative risk sentiment (likely on the renewed possibility of a no-deal Brexit) has pushed AUD/USD lower. Potential catalysts from upcoming Fed speak and more Australian economic updates later, there is a possibility that we could still see volatility on this pair. If we do see some non-dovish comments from Fed officials combined with a poor Australian leading index and some us-sino negative risk sentiment reports Aussie will have pressure and greenback may drag it further lower.
Short
by Anatta0
EUR/JPY DE10Y vs. JP10YIncreased spread between Germany 10-year bond yield vs Japan 10-year yield could indicate a slide in the Euro against the Yen. Even though the yield is higher for European bund, the risk appetite is declining, while the global economy is projected to have a slow growth rate through out 2019. This means that investors seek safe heaven assets like the Yen and JP10 bonds, that’s why we could see lower yield on the JP10Y. While the bond buying program from ECB is slowly decreasing - will increase the DE10Y yield. Maybe we could see a negative JP10Y yield this year, as it happened in 2016 and was the reason behind the slump of the pair from 128 to 111. I see a weak risk appetite, more demand on JP10 or even lower Japanese bonds, and a higher supply of European bonds. If the risk appetite is weak, we will also see a lower S&P and positive correlated indices with the S&P lower. European stocks is a risk in 2019 = less demand for the euro. If the risk sentiment is changing, then we could see a higher EUR/JPY. I am closely monitoring this factor. A range throughout 2019 of the pair is also possible. Holding shorts, and will add more if we break 123,400 and 121,500.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched. 2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance. 3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least. JPY risks are to the soft side 1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality. 2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above. 3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias. Risks to the view: 1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1