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Easter eggs likely to get expensive as cocoa trades at a 46-year Cocoa was the best performing commodity in 2023, recording a price increase of 64%1. Cocoa prices have continued to rally in 2024 crossing the threshold of US$5000 Metric Ton (MT) on 2 February 2024. The last time cocoa prices rose to this magnitude was in 1977 when it reached US$5379MT. A similar situation prevailed back then, adverse weather conditions led to production scarcities in major cocoa production countries including Ghana and Ivory Coast. Current crop conditions remain unfavourable in key cocoa growing regions Weather conditions in Africa have been unfavourable particularly in the Ivory coast and Ghana. This matters as the cocoa producing belt of West Africa is responsible for generating over 80% of the total global output. Ghana is the second biggest producer in the world. Moisture levels have been below average, and more trees have been affected by the Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). Main crop cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast had reached 951,710 tonnes by 21 January since the start of the season on 1 October, down 33% from the same period last season. The cocoa harvest is already falling well behind the prior year’s level. Added to that, the key West African Cocoa growing region is facing dry Harmattan winds which could destroy the cocoa pods growing for the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop in April. Ivory Coast halts forward sales of cocoa Ivory coast has suspended forward sales of cocoa beans for the 2024/25 season amid uncertainty about the production volumes. The country has seen its cocoa production falling this year due to adverse weather and diseases damaging the crop. Owing to which the country doesn’t want to oversell the 2024/25 crop until the production estimates are available. Buyers typically utilise forward sales to secure longer-term supplies. As Ivory Coast suspends forward sales, the absence of forward buying is likely to spur spot purchases in the near term. Cocoa prices in January itself have risen 13%2, on strong buying activity in the physical market. The front end of cocoa futures curve remains in backwardation, yielding a positive implied roll yield of 3.2% indicating near term tightness in supply. Bearish grinding data fails to arrest cocoa’s price rally Concerns started to surface that demand growth for cocoa will be impacted by higher cocoa prices. This was confirmed by the Q4 2023 data on cocoa processing which showed the grind number for North America was down 3% yoy to 103,971MT, Europe declined 2.5% yoy to 350,739MT while Asia saw the biggest decline at 8.55% to 211,202MT.3 The lower grind data is likely to have reduced the deficit on the global cocoa market from 350,000MT to 300,000MT for the 2023/24 crop year. However, expectations of lower grinding data was being anticipated by the market owing to higher cocoa prices. Amidst the current backdrop, the cocoa market is likely to face a supply deficit in the current crop year for the third successive year. The extension of the current price rally remains dependent on development of the mid-crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana and the likely impact of the CSSV. Net speculative positioning in cocoa futures is more than 1-standard deviation (stdv) above the five-year average underscoring bullish sentiment towards cocoa. Sources 1 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 31 December 2022 to 29 December 2023 2 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 3 January 2024 to 31 January 2024 3 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2024 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tight Oil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1. Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments. Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August. Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness. OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation. Source: 1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023 2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023 3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

On a sugar high, owing to weak supply Sugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.

VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21 The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement. This occurred October 19th - Wednesday. Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX. It is quite large... and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the potential for Higher Equities Complex. They have set this up perfectly. Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable given the Roll Yields. Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change. ______________________________________________________________________ Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.

VIX - Roll Yield Importance Important Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity outline in the prior 2 Posts. We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument.... it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles. Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts ALL Markets. The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become equal in Price @ PAR. Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price. VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2. It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity. I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now.