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FOREX, ruble, August and Jaroslaw KosatyThe fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying. Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400. As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble. The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USDRUB POTENTIAL LONG! (RUSSIAN RUBLE) USDRUB POTENTIAL LONG OK SO I USUALLY DON'T TRADE THIS PAIR BUT I WANTED TO THROW A COUPLE EXOTIC PAIRS INTO MY ANALYSIS FOR THIS WEEK. OK SO IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THIS PAIR YOU CAN SEE SOMETHING PRETTY SIGNIFICANT THAT JUST RECENTLY HAPPENED TO LEAD TO THIS ANALYSIS. IF YOU TAKE A LOOK JUST IN LAST COUPLE DAYS YOU CAN SEE A LARGE REJECTION TO THE DOWNSIDE AND BUYERS COMING IN TO PUSH PRICE WAY BACK UP ACTUALLY CLOSING PRICE FOR THE DAY ABOVE THE RECENT STRUCTURE SUPPORT. THIS DISPLAYS THAT THE BUYERS ARE VERY INTERESTED IN BUYING THIS PAIR (REASON DOESN'T MATTER TOO MUCH). SO WE CAN SEE THAT THEY ARE INTERESTED IN TAKING PRICE TO THE UPSIDE AND THAT THE SELLER DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONTROL TO STOP THIS REJECTION TO HAPPEN; DISPLAYING BUYER CONTROL. NOW EVEN THOUGH PRICE ISN'T UP-TRENDING THE REJECTION, MOMENTUM, AND COMBINED WITH STRUCTURE, DISPLAYS A GOOD POTENTIAL BUY OPPORTUNITY. LOOK FOR CONTINUED BUYER MOMENTUM (INTEREST) AND GOOD RISK/REWARD RATIO! PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW MY PAGE FOR MORE PROFITABLE SETUPS! CHEERS!
Long
by JosePips
2
Results of the week, dollar, gold, ruble and oilLet’s summarize the previous week. It began with the G20 summit outcome announcement, namely, Trump and discussed possible resolutions to the trade war that's dragged on between the world's two largest economies. The OPEC extends production cuts for 9 months, The non-farm payroll (NFP) released surprisingly positive figures in its report. But to say that, clarity reigns in the financial markets we cannot. The US and China negotiations do not guarantee anything, Trump still institutes a dollar devaluation policy. Actually, watching the gold dynamics last week, it is easy to understand that the markets are not sure about anything. Daily spikes in gold price ( 30-40 dollars ) is a testament to that. Well, the maximum daily maximum increase over the past three years shows that nothing has been decided yet. As a result, many analysts continue to “bet” on the gold growth in the future. Considering the strongest uncertainty, we still adhere to neutrality in matters of gold trading. Today we tend to buy gold on the intraday basis - its current price seems too attractive. The OPEC influence is mitigated, but oil production in the United States continues to set new records, changing the layouts on the oil market and forming a new market reality. Our position on oil - look for points for its sales, we set positions with fairly rigid stops. We were pleasantly surprised by the United States Non-Farm Payrolls + 244K. beating market expectations of 160 thousand. The markets still believe in a rate cut, but after Friday, a few people bet on 0.5% rate cut, right away. Weak figures would be the final verdict to the dollar. Against the background of such statistics, the Central Bank has many options. So, We look forward to hearing the Jerome Paella. We are waiting for another major event Bank of Canada meeting results. In general, the markets do not expect any surprises, but comments with instructions on changing the vector of monetary policy are possible. So in pair with the Canadian dollar might be volatile on Wednesday Russia's Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina said that Bank of Russia will reduce the rate by 0.5% The ruble naturally experienced weakness and declined in the foreign exchange market. We recommend its sales. We will continue to look for points for dollar sales. Gold price falling on Friday, we will use it as an opportunity for its purchases. We sell USDJPY. Medium-term pounds purchases look attractive. we will begin to build up a long-term position with EURUSD. In addition, we will sell the Russian ruble, as well as oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ECB signals, US threats, Roubini ’s predictions, and ruble limitDespite the extremely weak statistics from the Eurozone published on Monday and rather depressing data on producer prices, published on Tuesday, the euro tone was relatively good in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The reason was the information that the ECB is not ready to resort to additional monetary incentives. Therefore you should not expect to ease monetary policy. Despite the record series of the US economic growth, a lot of experts continue to fear for the global economy a bright future in general and the United States in particular. So Nouriel Roubini in a recent interview noted that we might be headed for another recession. The world central banks have essentially exhausted their limit of instruments (it is simply impossible to easy monetary policy for many countries), and, at the same time, the debts of countries are increasing, which is a serious threat. The trade war is a trigger for recessionary processes says, Roubini. The US seems to be interested in Europe, again. The United States, in an ongoing dispute over subsidizing the aviation industry (the European Union illegally subsidized Airbus Corp), is considering imposing tariffs on an additional 89 items with an annual trade volume of $ 4 billion, including cheese, pasta, whiskey, metals, and chemical products. In this light, a sharp increase in gold is quite understandable. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents believe that the ruble has reached its ceiling and it’s simply no way to grow to, Bloomberg's latest monthly survey found. In the future, the decline of the Russian currency is inevitable. Moreover, the state itself is interested in a weak ruble. Recall that the existing budget rule is aimed at artificially creating an imbalance in the foreign exchange market in favor of the dollar and against the ruble. For instance, since the fiscal rule has been imposed, the ruble fell against the dollar by almost 5%, but at the same time, oil prices rose by 17%. That is, the ruble becomes cheaper even if oil prices rise. Well, if they start to fall, it will just be cheaper as well but faster. In this light, it is useful to recall our constant recommendation to sell the Russian ruble on its any growth. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, yesterday was relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics. The index of business activity in the construction sector showed its lowest figures since 2009 (43.1, with forecast of 49.3). Data on employment in the US from ADP is what we are interested in today. Recall that last time they signaled about future problems in the data from the NFP. So we closely monitor the indicator and prepare to sell the dollar in case of its failure. In addition, we are waiting for data on business activity and the trade balance in the United States. Our trading recommendations for today: we are looking for points for sales of the dollar and the Russian ruble, as well as AUDUSD. We sell oil. We can not but note that gold current price is extremely attractive for sales, but do not forget to be careful.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Top 3 assets to sale, Libra, Trump and PowellDescribing yesterday cannot fail to mention that the markets are still following the current trends. The short dollar is one of them. The Fed's policy was criticized by Mr. Trump again. Also, praising himself Tump could not but notice that June may be turn out to be a fruitful one. The pressure that has been put on the fed carries a goal, the achievement of which is leading to dollar decrease. A sharp easing of monetary policy in the USA could hit the dollar a lot. Fed's interest-rate cut is leading to the short dollar. The USA and Iran relations are particularly fraught, against this background, gold became one of the main "beneficiaries" and settled above $1,400 ( has reached a peak since 2013). Nevertheless, we believe that the current price is a deviation from the norm than an adequate and fair price of gold, taking into account the facts available, rather than expectations and rumors. So, gold selling strategy seems to us quite an interesting and promising one. But you need to be aware that sales are at odds with the current market will, therefore, set small stops. Another interesting and promising position is the sale of the ruble. The information that Russia is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars from the Welfare Fund to revive economic growth (despite the fact that the Fund’s size is already falling rapidly: if its size exceeded 75 billion in 2017, it was less than 59 billion in June 2019). Especially when you consider that last year the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation was exhausted (more precisely, it was formally attached to NWF, but it changes nothing). The lack of financial resources is so strong that most inviolable stocks are used. And if the oil drops below 35-40, then there will be simply nothing to protect the ruble with. And the last one but not the least one asset for sale is cryptocurrency (in this case it does not really matter what you will sell Bitcoin, Ripple, Ether or something else). Libra cryptocurrency has injected new vitality into the cryptocurrency market. At least, the current price for leading cryptocurrencies and their dynamics so far are clearly hinted at this. We have already noted that we do not share this optimism. In our opinion, no revolution has happened. Libra is a cryptocurrency and electronic money hybrid, rather than a cryptocurrency. Libra will have both an issuer, regulation, and security (all this contradicts the essence and basic concept of Nakamoto). So the current surge in prices on the cryptocurrency market is a great opportunity to make money on sales. But again, do not underestimate the " crowd madness" and should be ready to move against the open position and being "underwater". Today we are waiting for the real estate market, data on business activity and consumer confidence statistics to be announced, as well as Mr. Powell's speech. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for the correction in gold and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium term position.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
G-20 meeting, OPEC meeting & rubleThe last week was not that calm. The Fed on Wednesday it clear that they are ready to reduce the interest rate. Some of the analysts are predicting the dollar falls in the near future by 5 - 10 %. So, we are looking for dollar selling points this week. On Friday the ruble buyers experienced an unpleasant moment when the ruble literary has collapsed and lost 1 % of its value. The reason is that US lawmakers are proposing to impose sanctions against the public debt of the Russian Federation in response to Russia's intervention in the elections. Recall, we recommend to sell the ruble and the current price looks extremely attractive. As for the new sanctions, for now, this is just talking, but the reaction the ruble reaction shows that it is vulnerable even to simple rumors. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are confirmed as the final two. Boris Johnson has led the voting so far, achieving more votes each time. A winner will be picked up in a month's time. And in the meantime, the candidates are In the process of rolling out their campaigns. The upcoming week is unlikely to be an easy one. The important macroeconomic statistics will be published (US GDP data also), two important events for financial markets will take place this week. This is the OPEC meeting, where the fate of OPEC + №2 should be decided. Accordingly, the oil market could get a boost for several months. And, of course, the G-20 meeting. First of all, we are expecting a signal about the end of the trade war. By the way, if such a signal appears, we strongly recommend paying attention to gold, which gets very high and is clearly ready to fall down. Our trading preferences for the week have changed: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. But with gold purchases in the week, we slow down, at least, aggressive ones. We expect a correction in gold and prepare for its sale. The oil trade is paused, for the time being - until OPEC meeting result announcement. The ruble sales not only did not lose its relevance but also became the most attractive.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Preparing for the NFP, ECB results & FedMonetary policy decisions. The announcement of the ECB’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the euro area was the main event. As expected, no changes followed. The most important thing, as usual, was concentrated in the comments of the Head of the ECB, Mario Draghi. The economic growth forecasts worsened again (the GDP growth rate for 2020 was lowered from 1.6% to 1.4%). In addition, according to Draghi, the ECB is serious about a return to quantitative easing and lower rates. Buying euros after such a speech of the head of the ECB is not worth it, even if you really want to sell a dollar. And today we want to sell the dollar more than ever. In yesterday's review, we have already noted that the figures for the number of jobs in private US companies in May were just awful. + 27K - we have not seen such figures since the global financial crisis. After publishing NFP a couple of times over the past few years, frankly, weak numbers, from time to time, have been shown. But not in the case of data from ADP. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which the data from ADP showed + 27K with the forecast of 180K, and the figures for the NFP come out near + 185K. The level of correlation between these indicators is low, and the methodology for calculating indicators differs, but at the same time, they characterize the same market in the same coordinate system. So today we are waiting for the NFP to lower its forecast. By lower we mean marks + 100K and below. The figure in the range of 30-50K will not surprise us much. But the markets definitely will, provoking massive dollar sales on the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. We recommend not waiting for the official figures to be realized, but selling the dollar, since it might be too late. Let us explain why exactly today the weak NFP data is so critical for the dollar. The fact is that the markets are increasingly being discounted for the rate decrease by the Fed in 2019. In particular, the probability that the rate by the end of 2019 will be unchanged is less than 2%. Accordingly, with a 98% probability, it can be argued that the rate in 2019 will be lowered. There is almost a 90% chance that the rate will be reduced twice. At the same time, more than 50% of traders believe that the rate will be reduced 3 times. Plus there is another 17% chance that the rate will be reduced 4 times (!). Note that the probability of this event did not exceed 4% last week. That is, the probability increased by more than 4 times (!).in less than a week. Weak NFP Data will provoke a slowdown and problems in the US economy, but also the Fed will lower rates aggressively. Perhaps at the next meeting in mid-June. Perhaps not by 0.25%, but by 0.5%. Our positions today without any changes: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Fed U-turn, investors escape, catch-22 for RFMarkets actively discounted under the monetary policy turn in the United States. In this light, the current decline and weakness of the dollar are quite understandable. On the part of officials, comments about a possible rate cut sound more and more actively. In particular, recently the St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, said that lowering the rate may be necessary to counter the risks of trade war. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Central Bank is ready to lower rates. Well, and finally, yesterday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Central Bank is ready to "act in a suitable manner to support the expansion" of the economy. Recall that the markets are confident that the rate will be reduced at least twice in 2019, while there is a non-zero probability that the rate will be reduced 4 (!) Times during the year. Despite the formal reason for the optimism growth in the stock market, investors are escaping from the stock market. One of the reasons for the panic was the information from Reuters that the US Government might launch an antitrust investigation against Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. Following the news, Facebook and Alphabet Inc shares fell by more than six percent, and Amazon shares fell by four and a half percent. In this light, the behavior of Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the legendary Wall Street investors, seems quite logical. He sold all the shares from his portfolio (the proportion shares, in the portfolio structure, was over 90%). Recall, the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the interest rate to the lowest value in the history of 1.25%. Our recommendation for working with the Australian dollar against the background of such information is to look for points for its sales. Yesterday was remembered by rather sad statistics on the UK. Retail sales literally collapsed by 3% at the end of May (the lowest value in the entire history of observations), and the index of business activity in the construction sector surely went below 50, indicating a decrease in economic activity. Wednesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics will be more active. We are waiting for data on retail sales in the Eurozone, data on employment in the US from ADP (we recall, on Friday will be published official statistics on the US labor market, including data on the NFP), as well as data from a number of US business activity indices. Bloomberg analysts recently published the results of a study which showed the unattainability of most plans of the Russian authorities in terms of economic growth and improvement of welfare in the country. The main conclusion is: Putin’s plans to double the GDP aren't meant to be. The Russian Federation in fact fell for the so-called "catch 22". In this case, it can be formulated as follows: to ensure economic growth above 3%, it is necessary to accomplish a number of smaller tasks, performance is possible only at a GDP growth rate above 3%. And the current growth rate equals 2%. That is, small goals will not be completed (the basic condition is not completed), which means that the main goal, growth above 3%, will not be achieved either. In this regard, we recall the feasibility of selling the Russian ruble on any attempts to grow. Since the growth rate is below the world average - it is not even standing still, this is the lag and loss of competitive positions. Our positions today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will sell the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Trade war price, short dollar and Bank of CanadaTuesday turned out to be another quiet day. So, we have time to talk about global things. For instance, about the possible price of a trade war for the United States, China and the world as a whole. The fact is that trade wars have been discussed often, almost constantly, but at the same time, some things are sounded as self-evident without any refinements to detail. Therefore, today we would like to talk about the price of trade wars. In the end, this problem will be solved until the end of this month (the meeting of the United States and China leaders at the G-20 summit), and the losses are already taking place now. So, economists at Bloomberg Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik analyzed the main scenarios of a trade war and its consequences. Their main conclusion is: if tariffs spread to all trading process between the USA and China, then global GDP will lose about $ 600 billion by 2021. By the way, this year will be a peak in terms of losses from trade wars. If tariffs turn out to be at current levels, in a couple of years China’s economy will lose 0.5% growth as well as the United States - 0.2%. If tariffs are distributed to all groups of goods, then China will lose 0.8% of economic growth, the USA will lose 0.5%, just like the world as a whole. So, the trade war is, indeed, a key aspect for the modern global economy. No wonder its is paid so much attention by markets and analysts. Meanwhile, Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC. - an investment fund with $ 72 billion of assets – is predicting the end of the dollar rally. The reason is that the United States will agree with China: the damage from trade wars is too high for both sides. In addition, a trade war hurts US consumer, and setting people up against, on the eve of the US Presidential election, is the last thing Trump wants to do. Returning to the current situation in the financial markets and the news background, we note that the main event of the environment will be the results announcement of the Bank of Canada meeting. The rate is likely to remain unchanged. We also are not waiting for aggressive comments from the Central Bank - it is not the time to show aggression. Trade war escalation is more than a serious reason to continue to pause. Despite the fact that we do not expect a hawkish position from the Bank of Canada, we believe that the current price of USDCAD is simply excellent in terms of its sales. So, we recommend today to look for points for its sales. In general, you need to sell about 1.35. We place stops above 1.3550, and put profits at the bottom 1.33. The rest of our trading positions have not changed: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EU Elections, the USA isn't ready for peace & RF monetary policyIt is not surprising that nothing significant in the dynamics of prices for financial assets occurred duo to calm mood on the USA and the UK financial markets. Tuesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics also promises to be a very calm day. But we do not wait for a lull in the markets - after 3 days of rest, traders and investors with redoubled efforts could begin to follow current trends and news background. The main news on Monday was the announcement of the results of elections to the European Parliament. The main parties of the European Union retained their positions. And the main fear, the victory of the populists, turned out to be only a fear: Euro-skeptics and the ultra-right took 171 places in total, against 503 places of four pro-European parties. In this light, we believe that our position - buying the euro against the dollar - is one less threat. Trump went to Japan over the weekend. According to him, the United States has achieved "significant progress" in trade negotiations with Japan. But it is not necessary to count on any final deal upcoming days. Nevertheless, this kind of information rather favorably and reassuringly influenced the mood of investors and traders. As for the main front of trade wars - between the United States and China. Trump said that the United States is not ready for the current version of the deal "and that it is not easy to pay duties to Washington for Chinese authorities, therefore they will agree to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, in the end. So the United States will continue to push. Quite interesting information about the Russian ruble was recently shared in Bloomberg. Experts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lower the rate on June 14, and then again in September and December. So, after a rather long period of inactivity, the Central Bank of Russia is entering an active phase of easing monetary policy. What does this mean for the ruble? That it will become even less “attractive” for foreign investors. We consider such information as confirmation of our basic trading idea - the sale of the Russian ruble. Considering that recently the Russian ruble has strengthened, we believe that its sale is more relevant than ever. Since nothing special happened yesterday, our trading positions did not change: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will carefully buy a pound.
by Trade24Fx
Fair price for Bitcoin, the pound - worst week, artificial oilJPMorgan Chase & Co analysts in connection with the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency market in recent times, and Bitcoin in particular, have thought about the question “what is its fair price?”, so-called intrinsic value. Determining the fundamental cost of cryptocurrency is a very difficult and highly ambiguous question, but considering Bitcoin as a commodity asset, you can simply calculate the amount of the cost of "its production" (electricity, the computing power of computers, equipment depreciation, etc.). So, according to their calculations, the current price sharply exceeded the “cost price” of Bitcoin. This last happened in 2017. We know the result. Recall, any increase in cryptocurrency should be used for their sales – that is our position. The pound remains under pressure. Actually, previous week was the worst for the pound since 2017. There was little chance that the Government will accept the deal. And the chair Theresa May is sitting on wobbling quite a lot. According to the polls, the most likely candidate is Boris Johnson. Property prices in the UK are continuing to decline, reflecting the concerns of investors and consumers about the results of Brexit. Given that there is no domestic political unity in the UK, the chances for a positive outcome in the near future are not visible. This means that the pound will continue to be under pressure. Like real estate prices in the country. Oil price is growing. The reasons are the same - tensions in the Middle East and the potential threat of war with Iran. Despite the fact that the current desire of the market is to buy oil, we recommend looking for points for sales on the intraday basis as well as medium-term. Why? - some artificiality of the current market conditions. OPEC + has limited the offer, but this process is unnatural and at any time in the market may appear 1.2 million b / d above. The current position of Russia, that proposes not to rush to the issue of extending OPEC + after June is playing in its favor. At the same time forecasts for oil demand have become increasingly gloomy lately. Important macroeconomic statistics will not be published today, so the events will probably continue to evolve in line with current trends. Our trading positions for today are as follows: we will look for points for buying the euro against the US dollar. Points for selling oil and the Russian ruble and points for buying gold and the Japanese yen.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Trump backs up, May and pound problems and ruble is in dangerYesterday, the markets continued to watch with bated breath what was happening around the negotiation process between the US and China. Just before the start of the American session, a sigh of relief swept over the financial markets. It is about Trump's tweet, that the Chinese would come to Washington to conclude a treaty. But this time no aggressive rhetoric. The Fear Index (VIX) declined by more than 10% during the day, However, it is still too early to relax and rejoice. On Friday, the United States is going to raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Bloomberg, meanwhile, has decided to calculate the “price” of Trump's tweets for stock markets. It was about $ 13 billion per word. It does not come cheap to financial markets. Sad news for the pound is coming from the UK. It is about the lack of progress in negotiations between Theresa May and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. And this means that the hopes for a partisan compromise on Brexit are melting. Accordingly, it is not necessary to count on a happy ending in the near future. The pound was under pressure and it is understandable. However, the situation may change any time - new information from May or Corbyn may radically change the attitude of markets to the pound. Given the complete current uncertainty, we still refrain from working with the pound in anticipation of any clarity. It is worth noting information from the Ministry of Finance of Russia regarding plans to implement the budget rule. So, from May 14 to June 6, 300.5 billion rubles will be spent on buying foreign currency, that is 16.7 billion rubles a day. For the ruble, this is definitely an alarming and extremely negative signal. Without excess supply in the market recently the ruble felt unwell. And the appearance in the foreign exchange market of 300+ billion rubles is a powerful factor of the downward pressure on the ruble. Recall that our position on the ruble remains unchanged - we use any of its growth for sales. About our vision of the most promising positions for trading today. They are unchanged: buying of the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EURRUB: Sell opportunity on 1W.The pair has been trading inside a very clear 1W Channel Down (RSI = 42.482, MACD = -0.781, Highs/Lows = -0.2727) since the start of 2019. Clear Lower Highs (for sell entries) and Lower Lows (for exits). Such is the most recent rejection at 73.3540. We are short targeting 71.700 which is the 1M Support (Resistance until April 2018, Support since and until this April). This is a cautious trade as despite the marginal cross of this 1M Support on April 22, it still has the capacity to initiate a new long term bullish sequence above 79.00 - 80.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
Pound is growth leader, dollar and ruble in danger and FEDThe best day for the pound over the past six weeks. Sum up, the result of its growth was the highest among the 30 other currencies on FOREX. Causes - a general correction in dollar pairs and possibility of Brexit progress. It is about the progress in the negotiations between Government and the leaders of the opposition Labor Party. As a result, by the middle of the next week, a compromise on Brexit may appear. In addition, a decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the UK will be announced on Thursday. But we will talk about it tomorrow. Today, the Fed’s Open Market Operations Committee will announce its decision. With a 98% probability, the rate will remain unchanged. That is characteristic 2% put on a decrease in the rate. Obviously, the rate change is not worth waiting. But in general, if you look at the likelihood of lowering the rate until the end of the year, then the tendency is rather “dovish”: the probability that by the end of the year the rate will be decreased is 60-70%. What does this mean for the dollar? - Nothing good. Yesterday's sales - further proof of that. The weak inflation component in the latest report on US GDP indicates that the expectations of a rate hike in 2019 by the Fed are not that baseless. Thus, yesterday the markets were discounted under a possible "pigeon" tone by the Fed. Note that as a reason for the Fed’s optimism is the latest figures for US GDP (they are much higher than forecasts). So the results are quite unpredictable in terms of the Central Bank’s comments. Our position as a whole is to sell the dollar. But, it will need to be adjusted in the process of results announcement. Returning to the events of yesterday, we should note relatively good data on the Eurozone GDP (exceeded forecasts: 0.4%, with market expectations averaging 0.3%). But the GDP of Canada frankly disappointed: in February, the indicator fell by 0.1%. In addition, the situation with unemployment in the Eurozone was better than experts' expectations (7.7%, with a forecast of 7.8%). In this light, yesterday's growth of EURUSD above 1.12 can be considered as logical. Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer called on the United States to impose additional sanctions against Russia. And today, in the US Congress should pass a hearing on Russia, which could result in another tightening of sanctions. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for the dollar sales against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) Sell limit 64.80 >>> 61.39Russian Ruble: During breakdown of the first candle. growth is same size of candle. ( TD ) Current candle is big. So we size a little different. Daily chart Current = Trend is down MN = time frame We have a big candle (First candle (TD)) I'm waiting on daily chart 64.80 (RUB) and after that we have Low trade zone/support for fixing deal = Target is 61.39 (RUB) --- Sell Limit = 64.80 Take Profit = 61.39 Stop Loss = 67.17 --- Profit = 5.26% Risk = 3.66%
Short
by UnknownUnicorn285026
2
The US pushes oil up, and HSE predicts the ruble fallLatest information about the US. The USA intends to reduce oil exports from Iran to 0. Thus, the upward movement in the oil market received a new impetus. So, our attempt to catch the correction at the very top was clearly premature. But first things first. According to the Washington Post, the United States no longer intends to grant preferential permission to buy Iranian oil to any country. Earlier, 8 countries were granted benefits in the form of the possibility of buying Iranian oil without sanctions from the United States. But according to current information from May 2, preferential permits will be canceled. What does this mean for the oil market? By some estimates - a loss of about 1 million b / d. (before US sanctions, Iranian oil exports amounted to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. After November, exports decreased to 1 million barrels per day.). This is a very serious volume. So the growth of quotations is more than reasonable. In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all oil supplies pass. Considering this news and the fact that the resistance level of 64.50 (WTI mark) was broken down, we decided to return the recommendation to “buy” oil. And we are planning to look for points for buying the asset on the intraday basis. Such news does not help calm the financial markets. Indeed, in theory, China, India, and Turkey, unlike the other 4 countries from the list of beneficiaries, may well rebel. In particular, China has already announced that it is going to continue to buy Iranian oil. In this light, another of our recommendations is of particular relevance. It is about buying gold. An additional argument in favor of buying gold can be called a series of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka. The Russian ruble reached its maximum for the year yesterday. In our opinion, this is an excellent reason for its sales. It cannot get any better than this. Moreover, according to HSE experts, in 2019 capital outflows from Russia will amount to $ 40- $ 50 billion, which will lead to a currency deficit, and in this case, the dollar to the ruble exchange rate will rise to 68-70 in the second half of the year. About our trading preferences, we note that we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are buying), buying gold and oil on the commodity markets, and in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Snooze Ville in FOREX, pound’s immunity and China gives hopeIn general, the previous week was relatively calm. As a result, the volatility index of exchange rates, which is calculated by the investment bank JP Morgan, fell to its new minimum since 2014. For instance EURUSD. Since the beginning of 2019(that is already 3.5 months), it has been fluctuating in a range of width less than 400 points (such a range a pair could pass in 3-4 days even without any volatility explosions). The most likely contenders for the “role” of irritant can only note the start of a full-fledged trade war between the US and the EU. The main event of the week was another Brexit postponement. In general, the word “another” has already become a prefix to Brexit: the next voting in Parliament, the next failure of May’s plan, the next negotiations, etc. The main result of the appearance of this “prefix” was the development of immunity in pounds for information regarding Brexit. The GBPUSD dynamics of last week is proof of that. Actually, we can hardly expect any breakthroughs this week, that means that the pound will continue to fluctuate without a clear direction. This should be used for active trading with no clear preference, buying a pound on descents and selling after local growth. Among other events, it is worth noting the publication of the Fed's minutes, as well as the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting (again, nothing new and unexpected). It is worth paying attention to the block of key data on the Chinese economy (GDP and industrial production). After the next drop in forecasts of the pace of economic development by the IMF, the markets would be very happy to see a positive trend in the economic development of the world economy. In general, there are reasons for optimism. On Friday, data on China’s trade balance were published, which showed an extreme rise in China’s exports. In addition, a sharp increase in loans showed that measures to stimulate the economy in China seem to be yielding results. In terms of trading preferences, we start approximately the same as we ended the previous one: we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market (except USDJPY, we are buying it), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets, besides continue to sell the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
Further increase in oil is questionableThe relative calm of financial markets on Thursday. Important statistics were not published yesterday. There is nothing expected to change the current situation on Friday. So, it means we continue to work in the previous vein. While there is a cooling-off period for the main issues of concern, let's talk a little about the future of the oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) drew the attention of oil market participants to the fact that its more than 40% growth in 2019 is entirely due to the supply factors: OPEC +, sanctions against Iran, the problems of Venezuela and Libya - All this contributed to a reduction in supply in the market and higher prices. So,the IEA experts believe that in the second half of 2019 the market focus may shift from the supply factor to the demand factor. And in this case, the situation does not seem to favor buying oil. Recall the IMF lowered its forecasts for the growth rate of the global economy once again. It means a slowdown in oil demand For the oil market. Sum up the demand may not grow strongly enough to push oil prices up in the future. Concern about the failure of the second half of 2019 for oil is increasing by statements from OPEC that the cartel may increase oil production after June. And although the things voiced by the IEA relate to the medium term, it is worth keeping them in mind when making long-term trading decisions. Nevertheless, here and now, trading on the intraday basis is still relevant. But the stops on buying must be set and be made as small as possible. A possible quick correction in the oil market is a reason not only to think about oil sales but also about the sales of the Russian ruble, which recently has greatly reduced the level of correlation with oil quotations, however, it remains totally dependent on asset prices. Moreover, the current price of the ruble is very favorable for its sales. Recall that in addition to intraday buying of oil and ruble selling on all time horizons, we are looking for points for intraday buying of gold, as well as sales of the dollar on almost all fronts (with the exception of the Japanese yen).
by Trade24Fx
Brexit, trade wars, oil and ruble problems April 12, 2019 is the official Brexit date. There are two options: leaving without a deal (both are afraid of it, Britain and the EU, therefore, we regard this outcome as highly unlikely) or a delay. In our opinion, the second option is alternative. It is all about the terms. The EU summit will show whether it takes a year, as the EU wants, or a couple of months, as the Britain wants. Our trading tactics are unchanged so far - we buy a pound on descents. Trade negotiations between the US and China over the end of the trade wars continue. This week promises to be quite intensive in terms of the negotiation process. Recall that the completion of trade wars is viewed by markets as positive for the world economy as a whole and for individual markets (commodity, stock) in particular. Oil has reached its maximum in the last 5 months. The reasons for this we have already listed. The main thing is the OPEC + No.2 agreement, which provides for an artificial supply reduction in the oil market by 1.2 million b / d. In addition, a sharp drop in the level of mining in Venezuela and problems in Libya only only thrown oil on the flames. The result - the growth of oil quotations despite an increase in the production of shale in the USA. We continue to look for points for asset purchases on the intraday basis with small stops. We recommend yesterday’s ruble appreciation in the foreign exchange market as a pretext for its selling. “Deadly” sanctions are already under consideration by Congress. Recall that one of the main strikes from the new package will impact banking system. Analysts of Raiffeisen bank calculated the total volume of problem assets on the balance of credit institutions of the Russian Federation in 2019 exceeded 10 trillion (problematic is considered “mortgage with indicators of impairment”, which include bad, toxic and simply non-performing loans). The coverage ratio of bank reserves of problem debts is only 54%, i.e. the amount of uncovered problem assets is estimated at 4.7 trillion rubles. The banks will not be able to cover this hole with their own capital - it simply will not be enough. Thus, the banking system is more vulnerable than ever, and sanctions may well destroy the delicate balance and lead to collapse. In this light, we recall our basic recommendation to sell the ruble at every available opportunity. We want to highlight a recommendation on the dollar sales, as well as purchases of gold.
Long
by Trade24Fx
The Ruble Carry TradeThe Russian currency has gained 5.7% against the Dollar thus far this year, following a large depreciation in December, resulting from an anticipation of more Western sanctions. The Ruble regained its strength in January though as the continuation of the US government shutdown and expectations of a global slowdown made the currency look more attractive. Most importantly, expectations of higher growth in the country came true as Russia grew by 2.3% in 2018, compared to forecasts of 1.8% growth. Not least, the 5.5% interest rate differential also assisted in attracting foreign money to gain from the carry trade and thus pull the rate higher. The positive carry trade potential would mean that someone in a short position would be able to earn a 99-pip positive overnight swap rate. Over January 2019, this would have amounted to approximately 2,200 pips, increasing the investor’s profit to 6.1%, in just one month. To put that in perspective, a trader shorting one standard lot of $100,000 would earn $6,100 in January. As with all things in life, things are not as simple as they seem. In this case, the caveat relates to the state of the Russian economy. In particular, the Russian economy appears to be following the rest of the world in a global slowdown, as a Reuters poll of economists suggested a consensus forecast of 1.4% in 2019, compared to 1.7% in 2018. High inflation and lending rates are expected to take their toll on the Russian economy, despite the improvement a value added tax reduction could potentially have. Most importantly, Russian Central Bank’s decision to purchase foreign currency in order to increase its reserves is likely to have a strong effect on the Ruble. Overall, the above suggests that the Ruble has the potential for carry trade gains over the year but also has the potential for a currency depreciation which could eclipse any profits from the interest rate differential. Naturally, the possibility for rate increases in the case that inflation rises more than expected also holds which would also provide a boost to the currency. However, the situation for the Russian economy will, out of all things, highly depend on the price of Oil and this is what potential traders need to focus upon. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex