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Safehaven

CADCHF Held By Trendlines! Where Would It Go Next?Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of this pair. Its a very tricky pair to trade if you look closely at it but if you look at the monthly TF, you will notice the price is rangebound for quite some years now. The red horizonatal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the monthly charts. From the main chart, it can be seen that the price is held by various trendlines. It would be hard to explain here what could potentially unfold but if you look at the main chart, you would understand everything more clearly! On long term bias i am SHORT on this pair, but for weekly TF it could go anywhere but i believe LONG move upwards would be limited and the price would eventually come down and test the lower end of the range. This just represents my analysis on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post. cheers
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
GOLD possible full WXYXZ correctionAfter the strong impulsive trend started in November of last year, Gold is currently in correction mode. If the metal makes fully WXYXZ correction, we should be expecting one more strong correction wave to finish the Z wave. Not anticipating strong up movement until the resistance line broke. In lower time frame, gold is in range play and it is better to wait for the breakout. I would recommend entering a sell position on the resistance line or wait for a strong downward move and enter on the pullback.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Purvee
AUDJPY Channel Continuation! Price Likely To HIT 74.500 Level Have a look at the main chart of the weekly TF! Here we can see that the price has been confined in a downward channel. The nearby green horizontal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the Monthly charts. Shall the current ascending trendline inside the channel break, we could see the selling pressure build up towards the crucial support level at 74.500! For the current consolidation ascending trendline inside the channel to break, it would be favorable for the weekly candle to break convincingly after which a slight retracement is required before going SHORT on this pair! There is one more catch to this trade. have a look at the attached image above which shows the monthly TF picture of this pair confined in a long term triangle which has been respected on numerous occasions. So therefore we not only await for the weekly candle to close below the trendline but most importantly we must see the monthly candle close outside this triangle. If this all criteria are met, its an excellent chance to go SHORT on this pair! This just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair at the moment. shall the trade criteria be met i will post the details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDJPY Likely To Drop Towards 69.000 IF the Support Breaks Looking at the chart, the monthly TF gives an overall technical perspective to where this pair might be headed. the three green lines are concrete support and resistance levels traced from the monthly charts. Shall the current or future candle (Monthly candle) close below the 73.000 level (green line support) we can confirm that the triangle has been breached and the price would likely fall towards 69.000 level thereafter. Fundamentally, the NZD is expected to loose most of its value this year as the economy is not doing too well plus the currency is highly overvalued against the USD too. This just represents my outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURCHF Needs to Break WEEKLY 50 EMA To Target 1.11500 !With the H&S Pattern completed sometime ago, this pair Hit the support that lied in the region of 1.11500, from there onwards it started a rally that went back and tested the neckline of the H&S pattern. With the eurozone economy slowing down, we can expect the price to drop again towards the lower end of the range. To do this, the weekly candle must breach the weekly 50 EMA and close below it. After that we have enough confirmation that the price is likely headed back southwards.
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF Looks for Decisive Break Of Triangle to Target 1.03000!Whilst markets on RISK ON moods, the SAFEHAVEN FX pairs such as JPY and CHF TURN OFF the investors. In this case CHF is paired with the USD, which just thinking fundamentally about it is the best pair to trade alongside USDJPY when the markets are in RISK ON mood! While DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) has been declining in the last days this pair however has been building gains to go along. Now just imagine when the USD (DXY)starts gaining traction, it will most likely make USDCHF jump northwards propelling it to the next resistance that lies at 1.03000 level Fundamentally the DXY is consolidating as EUR recovers. Once the EURUSD recovery is complete which could happen at around 1.145000 level, we may likely see USD bulls returning with sharp buying pressure which would result in USDCHF trend upwards. Now for this to happen technically, have a look at the main chart where price seems to be confined in a slightly elevated triangle with the upper trendline preventing the breakout of this pair. We need the price of weekly candle to close above this trendline of the main triangle to confirm any long entry! After this is complete we have to let the pair retrace slightly before placing a BUY order with the potential target of 1.03000 in our sight! I hope you find my analysis useful, if so i would appreciate if you leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive more analysis. Once the trade criteria are met i will post the entry details in a post with this analysis attached. cheers and thank you
Long
by FX618Analysis
YELLOW METAL Looking TO Complete H & S Pattern On DAILY Chart! The above snapshot represents the daily chart of the yellow metal. it can be clearly seen that the head and shoulder formation might just be about to completed soon! The main chart (4hr) shows the channel has been breached with EMA 50 adding further confluence to downward move which could target the potential neckline of the overall H & S formation. Once the overall pattern is complete, its safe to say that this pair can potentially drop towards to 1267.000 level where the long term weekly ascending trendline lies!. Looking at the big picture, i am overall LONG on GOLD, however i would only enter LONG once the price hits the 1270.000 area so the better risk to reward ratio is by my side. At the moment i am short on this metal. If you would to take short this yellow metal based on your own comfort and analysis i suggest the following trade entries: ENTRY LEVEL: CURRENT PRICE 1300.000-1307.000 STOP LOSS: 1330.000 (ABOVE THE RIGHT SHOULDER) TAKE PROFIT: 1267-1270 LEVELS PLEASE FOLLOW THE ATTACHED LINK IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO TAKE THIS TRADE. I WILL BE UPDATING ANY CHANGES IN THE LINK ABOVE. cheers
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY, LOONIE Might Break The Channel to Test 84.3000 Vs YEN Once the channel breaks together with the daily 50 EMA, we can expect the price to go north and test the weekly 50 EMA which lies at 84.300 level. the blue line support is derived from the monthly charts and its a concrete support which has been rejected and the price shows it might climb up. For this to happen the channel must break. This just represents my analysis of the pair, shall there be any updates in the future regarding trade entry i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY and safe haven assetsSafe haven assets are on the rise. In the time to come we believe that safe have assets will continue their climb. US president Donald Trump recently stated that tariffs on China will stay until they comply with the “deal”. The “deal” is very difficult to comply with as it includes buying additional US goods and enforcing international copyright laws. This whole situation adds to the risk-off scenario and instability of world economic growth. Dovish guidance from the world central banks add to this category of investment opportunities. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve all recently made comments that they will take a dovish approach to monetary policy and not raise interest rates in the near future. The SNB already is keeping interest rates at -0.25%. The lowest current interest rate in the world. Collectively the monetary authorities are indicating to us that we are in the late end of the business cycle. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have managed to standout in the currency markets. This is due to supportive economic data from their countries. Australia is enjoying an 8 year low in their jobless rate. The NZD actually picked up due to growth in their GDP. We would like to point out that the risk aversion currently present in the market could cause the Japanese Yen to grow while other currencies sink.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
CHFJPY Confined in A Weekly wedge. Awaits breakout Momentum!The blue lines represents the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. If the price breakouts of the triangle in either direction the support or resistance levels next to them needs to be broken decisively in order for the technical aspects to be in our favour of the trade. shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my outlook and analysis on this pair. if the technical aspects of this trade meets, i will post the entry and exit details in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
AUDJPY Looking To HIT 81.000 Level If the Range Breaks!AUDJPY is currently range trading that is visible by looking at the 4hr and daily timeframes. Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in between the blue lines (range). Shall a breakout of the range occur to the upside, the price will look to target the 81.000 area where the weekly EMA 50 is present. Have a look at the snapshot of the weekly charts below: From the chart above, the price is confined in a descending channel and is currently en-route to testing the dynamic EMA 50. Furthermore, the 78.000 psychological level is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been rejected on too many occasions notably most recently on the monthly candle and the flash crash that happened last month. A LONG position is favored only if the range breaks to the upside, in other words the daily candle and NOT the 4hr Candle must close outside of the range on the daily charts . Followed by a slight retracement before we could execute a LONG entry. In the future if the price decisively closes above the weekly 50 EMA we could take this pair LONG towards the descending trendline of the main weekly channel. RISK ON appetite in the market would make AUD more valuable in comparison to safehaven yen which tends be sold off more together with GOLD AND CHF, therefore if a trade deal is made which is a likely scenario we can expect the AUD to rally against the YEN. This just represents my analysis for this pair, shall the opportunity arise i will post the entry criteria in a new thread. stay tuned and cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
A Close Above MONTHLY 50 EMA Could Take NZDJPY Towards 83.500 Price is currently confined in a descending channel or wedge on the weekly charts with multiple tests occurring on both sides of the channel making it more and more potent if a breakout occurs! The blue lines on the main charts represent the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts and as of few weeks ago the 75.000 level was respected and now the price seems to be heading towards the next resistance that lies in the 83.000 region. For this to take place the channel on the weekly charts must be broken convincingly and most importantly the MONTHLY 50 EMA must be broken to the upside (the monthly price candle must close above the monthly 50 EMA). Have a look at the picture below for further illustrations Once all these take place and fundamentals starts to align with technical picture, we can take this pair LONG with swing trading chance towards the 83.5000 level. On the flip side, shall the trendline gets rejected again on the weekly charts, then we can take this pair SHORT (day trading chance) towards the support beneath at 74.5000 level. see the image below for the technical aspects for the SHORT trade If the wedge is broken, the daily 50 EMA must be broken too in the process for the SHORT trade to be confirmed. Once this all takes place we wait for the price to slightly retrace before making an entry Shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this just represents my personal technical analysis behind this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Future Outlook as USDCHF approaches Crucial resistance!The 1.03000 level holds the key for this pair to reverse or continue trending northwards. As the price will likely approach the crucial 1.03000 level which has been respected on many on occasions, it is favorable for many traders to take advantage of this situation and possibly reap huge profits target with minimum stop loss. However keep in mind the certain channels and trendlines present should all be broken for added confluence. It remains to be seen in the coming weeks how this pair behaves but we will surely see some big moves happening once that crucial resistance is hit.
Short
by FX618Analysis
A SHORT Trade Setup for USDCHF. Triple Top Formation!Price has approached a crucial resistance level. triple top formation also happens to be present there. On the 4hr charts, it can be seen that the trendline has been violated and breached the 4hr 50 EMA too. The price might slightly retrace towards the daily 50 ema where out take profit levels lies too. have a look at the details below INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND 1.00480 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.01300 TAKE PROFIT: 0.99600 RISK TO REWARD RATIO: 1:1 SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL PROVIDE THEM IN THIS THREAD. CHEERS
Short
by FX618Analysis
SAFEHAVEN YEN Aiming to Test the Lower Trendline Of the Channel Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in a channel which is in a current uptrend! However a small pause is likely to occur before the long term price finds the right direction to trend again. Looking at the above 4hr charts, there is a rough head and shoulders pattern that is present and a break of the neckline which also happens to be at the level of 4hr 50 EMA could signal a slight correction towards the ascending trendline of the channel. If a break does occur i will potentially wait for the price to breach both 4hr and daily 50 EMA before going short on this pair. i shall provide any update for entry criteria shall the technical and fundamental picture meet. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
$USDCAD Safe Place?Following a nasty Jan 2-9 downtrend the $USDCAD has shown a rally since hitting that very strong support (blue line). This rally has lifted it to +2.16% for the month. Often regarded as a safe haven currency I can see major players jumping in on this really low price and soft rally. with a 200 day moving day average of 130866 as a solid stop loss this might be a great place to earn for a few days. We will keep close watch on the EMPLOYMENT data coming up on THURSDAY. HAPPY TRADING
Long
by Buffetbaby
EURCHF May Continue Or Change The Trend !EURCHF has been in a decline for the past several weeks. The trend may just continue or it may change its course as the price approaches crucial support level of 1.11000. Currently looking at the weekly charts (the main chart) the price is trending down just shy of the crucial 1.11000 level. Ina few weeks the price is expected to reach that crucial support and then from there on it may either make trend change and aim for the above red line resistance levels or it may continue to head south where other support lies. Have a look at the daily chart in the below snapshot. The price action has developed a descending trendline and it has been respected on numerous occasions. A further confluence factor can be intensified for LONG trade if the trendline breaks together with the resistance of 1.15000. Its advisable to enter LONG when the 1.15000 level is broken and retested so we can get a better risk to reward ratio. On the flip side should the crucial support of 1.110000 break then it may or may NOT follow the current descending trend!. However the main thing that needs to happen is that the support needs to be broken convincingly so our probability can increase. All in all its a matter of being patient and let the price action play out so we can take a more risk to reward favored opportunity when the right time and circumstances appear. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade signal i will post them in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
H&S Pattern Complete On 4Hr EURJPY Chart. Await Trendline Break!The head and shoulders pattern on 4 Hour chart is completed although not that clearly. But it certainly shows that the price is likely to head Northwards. The neckline has been broken rather unconvincingly and together with the neckline lies the 4 hour 50 EMA which can often strongly act as potential dynamic support and resistance. For our trading odds to increase, the price needs to break this EMA sharply to the upside. Furthermore just above the EMA lies another trendline that has been respected more than 2 times, therefore taking this trade LONG at the moment might not be the smartest of ideas as it can easily reverse. Have a look at the main chart that displays all the above chart pattern and trendline. Its advisable for the trendline to break so we can finally enter a LONG trade. Our target would be the DAILY 50 EMA that lies at the region of 127.000 level. Have a look at the above daily snapshot of the chart. it shows the price is confined in a triangle after the flash crash that took place a few days ago. it has clearly respected the triangle trendline and as it seems the price is showing further evidence that its headed up after rejecting the lower trendline of the triangle. Shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this is just the analysis behind this trade setup although it goes deeper than this i have just put some important technical picture only. cheers and happy trading
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency. Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year. Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
by FX618Analysis