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OIl setting up for a bounce here, trade or continuation?We've been out of the #Oil trade for some time now. It since went about 10% higher, no big deal. Daily analysis: Broke its recent uptrend. RSI oversold - Usually gets a bounce at these levels. It has been trading in between mid 60's & Low 90's. Intraday looks like it is setting up for a bounce. -------------------------------- Weekly Analysis: You'd figure with tension rising that #OIL would be at a 100, at least. Daily it broke the trend but it's best to wait until Friday to see if it's going back to the lower part of the trend or bouncing. Historically, RSI doesn't hang around the 50 area much, shown by the yellow arrow.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58.When it comes to oil, it was supposed to do the super moon back to $120 thing when Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party finally stopped welding people in their homes and going full blown technocratic social credit while humans tried to "fight" Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID-19), but for one reason or another, the pump never got off the ground. Probably because a whole lot more than the 87,468 people Xi and his CCP claim to have died from the disease are actually dead, and so demand is just legit in the toilet and industry can't get going, because China has big time problems stemming from its 23-year-long persecution of Falun Gong, which includes the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting (they've done it to Uyghurs too), and the Party's outright fetish for human rights, freedom of speech, and freedom of belief abuses. Being bullish on "China" is a totally separate thing from being bullish on "the Chinese Communist Party." One is extremely wise, while the other is totally moronic. Totalitarian regimes never last a long time, and the Party has already had more than a century. Clinging to Marxism is like clinging to the Titanic when it's 5/6ths of the way under the water. When it comes to WTI oil, both the fundamentals and the price action are strange. This is a commodity that you don't want to be very bearish on after it traded at literally $0 during 2020's western COVID pseudopandemic theatre hysterics. Yet, while oil also isn't liking to go down, it isn't liking to go up. In October, I had a pretty accurate call that WTI would plink the $70 range. WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict And a pretty good call in September too when everyone was convinced oil could never trade low again WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls But the ultimate endgame of the calls, $50, has not manifested. It seems as if perhaps these prices won't manifest, and it's almost time for the uppy. There's some problems with this narrative, however. The key factor is that the United States and its vassal states (including Canada) are the world's largest producers of oil, by far. Russia and OPEC combined are really the only challengers, but the US has the advantage in that you need the USD to buy oil, and so ultimately the Biden Administration is the legit market maker. The problem with the bull thesis is that the SPR was filled at $29.70 over the years while Biden and friends sold half of it off in the $80s and $90s. This inherently tells you not that they're trying to destroy themselves, but just that they're short on crude oil. The news in December, right after oil wicked the $70 mark, was that the Biden Admin was buying it all back . But then in January, the tune changed as the US Government said "The bids didn't come in low enough, so we haven't bought yet." Media says they want to buy around $70. And this brings us to our very strange price action in WTI. Crude has a gap at $85-86 and combines with a Dec. 1 pivot around $83, while recent trading activity was a triple top of successive lows at $82~. Then we dumped to $72, but did not make a new low, and have since bounced back to $80. All of this combines to give us no reason to believe that a hybrid short-killer/breakout trader-crusher play is not about to be made around the $88 level. This gives us 10% to the upside, which is really quite nice to work with when WTI trades 1,000 barrel lots and you also have access to the leveraged ETFs like UCO and SCO. But the bottom is not in. Look at the weekly candles. Oil just hasn't retested the long-term trendline from late 2021, and in combination with the US Government having been unwilling to refill the SPR at $75+, should give you all the reason in the world to be extra cautious with going long as more than a scalp. Under $60 **combining** with media chatter that Democrats are refilling the SPR is where you want to go long. And if you do it right, you'll get the bottom for what will quickly turn into $180. 2023 is going to be a wild year starting in July. If humanity makes it to 2024, it will be even more of a ride. TL;DR: Long to $88 --> Short to $55, and start treating Bloomberg's Javier Blass like Jim Cramer. Trade against the narrative. Be patient. It's too early for the next moon, yet $120 in '22 was no top. This should combine with natural gas being on the cusp of pumping: Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming Be careful, and trade safe.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
6
Most probable scenarios for OilScenario 1: Sideway between 80-85 Scenario 2: A double top formation and correction to 77-76 level. This scenario could be possible if oil closes below 80.50 in the next few days! Heiken Ashi chart: Supports the second scenario: SCO: If this correction happens, there will be a 15% gain opportunity in the next 2 weeks! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:USOILShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
🛢️🧸 Crude oil is set to slump - Great setupHi there is my view near-term on Crude in the nutshell: There are comcerns about global demand due extended lockdowns and vaccine shortage in Europe The Suez canal is free now TVC:DXY marching higher Concerns on rising yields TVC:US10Y "Archegos gate" in focus OPEC meeting this week For me its "perfect storm" for further decline in oil prices So there is my setup on hourly chart: Pretty downtrend and rising wedge pattern On monthly chart NYMEX:CL1! just topping at long term bearish trendline which originated in 2008 here is data for my trade: ------------------------Trade setup --------------------------- Entry: 61.10 Stop Loss: 62.32 Profit target: 57.50 Time stop: 5 days ------------------------------------------------------------------ If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together. is topping on longterm resistance
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tomasgei
1
Nice setup to short Crude oil falling channel 🛢️📉NYMEX:CL1! is trading now in long-term supply area ( resistance). After estabilished triple top price pattern we could see trading NYMEX:CL1! in falling channel.On hourly timeframe its clear downtrend and price forming hanging man pattern. After breakdown diagonal trendline price is testing it, its perfect setup to short entry. here is data for my trade: ------------------------Trade setup --------------------------- Entry: 52.62 Stop Loss: 52.92 Profit target: 51.54 Time stop: MOC ( Market on Close) ------------------------------------------------------------------ If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tomasgei
1
Upward channel on SCO: Short Crude Oil at TopHi mates, i posting another of my todays trades. Its based od triple top on in my another idea posted few days ago. Its in realated. here is data for my swingtrade: ------------------------Trade setup --------------------------- Entry: 9.98 Stop Loss: 9,82 Profit target: 10,62 Time stop: 3 days ------------------------------------------------------------------ If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:SCOLong
by Tomasgei
2
🔑 REVERSAL on Crude oil! SCO - leveraged ultrashort on CL1!First trading day in 2021 is key for NYMEX:CL1! AMEX:SCO it seems. Today was very volatile wide range day on high volume, traded completely out of value area of volume profile. I expect sharp drop on NYMEX:CL1! and you can trade it by this leveraged ETF AMEX:SCO . First target is 12.87 level If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:SCOLong
by Tomasgei
1