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SEK

ridethepig | G10 FX Christmas Chartbook 🎄 @ridethepig | G10 FX Christmas Chartbook 📌 USD - devaluation continuation is the name of the game ...the breakdown is cooking; Biden has turned dollar into an awful shelter. Look for cover elsewhere, a 'digital dollar' could also be a beautiful political manoeuvre in which we may see the transfer of whole equipment from West to East. Needless to say, the centrepiece to the FX board is looking a lot less convincing as we end the year compared with how we started. 📌 EUR - bridges are building ...eurobonds entering into the picture has been decisive, debt mutualisation is a necessary component for the currency to survive and Coronavirus was for Merkel what Britain was for Alexander Hamilton. Political bridge building will provide a nice shelter for the coming year(s) and the bias is to remain long EUR/USD. 📌 GBP - is also playable of course ... and should be one of the better isolated macro trades here. While Johnson has managed to provoke Biden, he has lovingly moved away from no-deal via Trump back to secured the 'deal' with Europe. The subordinate Johnson deal will not really be considered better by anybody in the ST and is unlocking a leg lower in GBP assets. The only prevention for the annihilation manoeuvre, as has already been pointed out, comes from the dollar devaluation which can enter into play sharply into 2022. This is an instructive example of balancing a portfolio. 📌 JPY - "if it aint' broke, don't fix it" ...the West have a lot to learn from Japan when it comes to understanding how to deal with the issues surrounding private debt from 1991. Of course, you are right to say well @ridethepig the West didn't let asset prices considerable weaken, sure, but this is why growth fizzles out. Japan knows the problem is terribly restrictive and must sacrifice fiscal policy. Paying down on private debt with wonderful imaginative gifts while using Government spending to continue the money supply flows. A risk-off inversion is/was the only way to avoid deflation and the 30 year gap is now plugged with experience. 📌 CHF - "SNB have played skilfully" ...in order to protect the currency as best it can, the CB has been granted a chance for some more direct action at 0.870x. And in the meantime, with a WhiteHouse dependent on Fed resources and conducting desperate struggles for its own existence, dollar devaluation is opening the waterfall towards 0.780x if the pivot would fail. 📌 AUD - "Commodity shortages and supply restraint" ...the prognosis for the Aussie seems quite good (and for other commodity currencies NZD and CAD more broadly). The barricades from global government have managed to disrupt supply chains and in this game, because of the relationship the Australian currency has with commodities, a test of 0.80c is needed. 📌 NZD - "keep an eye on RBNZ" ...the dollar shorts across G10 are mobile but here I must say NZD is my least favourite of the commodity currencies. The blind spots to this come from RBNZ bringing debt:income measures generally back into play, which is not helpful for credit and will potentially unlock threats of negative rates once more. 📌 CAD - "the taxing neighbour" ...is leading to direct inflows into Canada. A Biden sweep in GA is grounding the manoeuvre for the outflows, the soundness of which will give us the chance to park capital for a few quarters at most. Losing 1.280x for the yearly close is sufficient that we are able to work out the waterfall towards 1.20xx. Stay short USD versus CAD into 2021. 📌 SEK - "Classical manoeuvring" ...a very good year for SEK after the initially softer start, it rallied aggressively alongside NOK. The main line in SEK at 8.2x is within touching distance. 📌 NOK - "more volatility to come" ...with a strong indication from models to buy both NOK and SEK. Commodity shortages (including Oil) can no longer be staved off. The successful penetration of 8.7x support will unlock a -12% waterfall for 2021. =================================================================== These materials do not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell without the prior investment products or securities, including security- based swaps. These materials are provided for information purposes only and do not contain all of the information that is material to an investor. ===================================================================
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | SEK for the Yearly Close📌 SEK for the Yearly Close In general the following flows are working flawlessly, sellers have recaptured the control and are bringing about a lot of pressure on the main macro targets issued at the beginning of 2020. One indication of the weakness is clearly the USD devaluation, and is represented by the attacking side rushing to SEK. Introducing some layers to time for this just as an example for reference points using Gann, it is strategically interesting to see Feb 2022 as it is also a panic cycle in the dollar according to my models. The buyers are hanging by a thread, they are having trouble trying to pay their debts and will have to convince the creditors. At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
SEKJPY Sell Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. on DAILY: SEKJPY is sitting around strong resistance in blue so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. on H1: SEKJPY formed an objective trendline in red and a head and shoulders pattern so we are waiting for a momentum candle close below its last swing and neckline to sell. Trigger: Waiting for a momentum candle close below the gray area to sell. and until the sell is activated, this one would be overall bullish and can still dive inside the blue resistance zone. As price approaches our lower green support, we will be looking for buy setups. Good luck!
Short
by TheSignalyst
2
A system for speculationThere are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped out where they should enter The key to great execution is being able to assess market participation and price action. 3. 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! 4. ❓ Has anything changed - reassess trades everyday at the roll Don't think about the chart here, focus on the macro drivers. Are negative rates still in play for BOE? or have they changed their view on No-deal countermeasures? 5. ⛓ Remain nimble - do not get married to a position If we don't like what we see, if BOE turns hawkish, then we can just take the position off. Understand where is enough and admit where you are done. 6. 💫 Stay in the moment - perception matters more than reality If you can understand and outguess how perception will change, then you will be very profitable. Where's the sweet spot? How is the market positioned? 7. 😬 A life and death showdown - everyday is high noon in the markets Market participants are profoundly into the game. So much so that everything else in life seems unimportant. Threadneedle Street becomes the world as your opponent will keep trying to outmanoeuvre.
XEducation
by ridethepig
5
Swing Trade Idea on USDSEK by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart: a) The price has been on a bearish trend since MARCH 2020 b) Currently, the price is below a previous Support zone now working as a resistance c) The main style of the strategy we are showing here is looking for previous situations at the same level and use them as models for possible resolutions on the current scenario. d) Based on that, we think that if the price breaks below the Daily structure, we have freeway towards the next support zone at 7.9 e) In case the price keeps rising, we will cancel the setup f) This is a Swing Setup meaning that the resolution can take several weeks or 1 to 2 months.
by ThinkingAntsOk
GBPSEK bounce on a weekly support 🦐GBOSEK has recently bounced on a weekly support, Market started a retracement move from the daily discending channel in a higher high higher low. Price broke the discending channel and currently breaking the daily resistance. Accroding to Plancton's Strategy we can set a nice long order ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
1
USDSEK ranging for a possible retracement 🦐USDSEK is close to a weekly resistance. Market is currently renging between 2 structure and after a long bear move there is the possibility to see a retracement. Price currently broke the inor channel and is testing the support structure. IF the market will break and close above the weekly structure, at the restest of it, we can set a nice long order according with Plancton's strategy. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
6
EURSEK attempt to break support 🦐The market on the daily chart is inside a descending channel and recently created a bear flag that retrace from the previous move till the 0.618 fib level. Currently the price tested the 4h structure and made few attempt to break it. If the market will manage to break and close below it we can set a nice short order according with our strategy. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
1
Simple rules to understand Supports and Resistances behaviour The idea of this post is to use this current scenario to provide an idea of how to work with clear Support and Resistances zones. a) LOOK AT THE PAST: What we mean by this is to look for zones that you can define as reversal areas (support/resistance), this must be Evident if it is not then you should not be paying attention to that chart b) Once you have found a situation in the past that is clear enough, you can think that similarities may happen to the current scenario, For example, we would say something like: The price will reverse towards a similar level as it happened on the past c) Be ready to be wrong: We don't know what the price is going to do precisely, BUT we can assume two situations, either will break a level, or it will reverse on a level. Let's take the previous support zone as an example. We had an evident support zone, and the price dint reversed there, BUT the price stop for a while. so we can make a rule like this: -IF the price breaks a clear support/resistance zone; first, it will tend to stop there and make a sideways movement for a while before continuing -IF the price reversed on a level, I should see similarities to previous situations, and I can use it as models to follow and wait for triggers or signals that I saw worked before d)LAST RULE: The price moves between specific Support and Resistance zones following the previous 2 ideas about breaking a level or reversing on a level / Take a look how the price broke the last zone support, making a sideways movement first. After that, the bearish movement continued and now has reached the next support zone, there we should think again that both scenarios can happen, and just react to the more evident one.
Education
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
GBPSEK Long / Buy - Double BottomReasons I took this trade: - Double bottom formed on the larger timeframe / Bounce of strong resistance. - Pair is oversold on many timeframes. - Tight stop loss / Good R:R (Risk:Reward Ratio) - Strong BULLISH candle on 1h timeframe ( Piercing Line Pattern & Possible Bullish Hammer ) - MACD crossover Entry : 11.44453 (roughly) Stop Loss: 11.39150 TP1: 11.54250 TP2: 11.65475 Please check against your own analysis BEFORE taking this trade and make sure you are happy to enter. Open to any critique or advice :)
Long
by robertofiorentino9
GBPSEK short every chance u haveHey there! Very simple setup explained in the chart, just keep shorting until the pair says otherwise. Simple. If the pair closes above resistance look for better opportunities. If you have any questions please leave them in comments. Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!! Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better. Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!! Surf, Trade, Live!!
Short
by MicKi