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Valero Pipeline // BTFD Thesis: This is a trade made by Senator Thomas Carper last month. Upon reviewing and doing my research, it seems the volume of one of the pipelines in the gulf of Mexico controlled by Valero Energy has has a significant increase in volume. Looks like a bullish year ahead for Valero! Here are the levels I will be interested in. Please note that this is a preliminary research and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
NYSE:VLOLong
by PudgyProdigy
Gold Breakout Triggered on the 180% move!Take a look at my previous take on Gold for 2021, and why we are in for a potential 180% plus move in the yellow metal. This is not coming in a month or two, the last time the fundamentals and the technicals aligned like this, it took 400 plus days for the completion of this 180% move. We are in Gold for the long term as the confidence crisis in government, central banks and the fiat currency intensifies. My readers are familiar with the cheap and easy money. Interest rates are not going higher anytime soon. In fact, one can argue they can never rise due to all the debt that needs to be serviced. Hikes into negative territory is more likely going forward...and to be honest, is pretty much a guarantee. Government fiscal policy is going to increase, especially if the Democrats take the Senate (will be split but the VP gets the deciding vote). This covers the confidence crisis in central banks and the fiat money. My posts from a few years ago mention this. The confidence crisis for government that I mentioned was this: regardless of who wins the next election, neither side will accept the result. This division will continue. Now heading back to my last piece on Gold. I outlined the fundamentals and technicals there. If you read that piece, an entry trigger was the close above this triangle/wedge pattern. Ideally, by the end of the week, we get a weekly close confirming this. But as of now, we do have a DAILY candle trigger. As you can see, the price of Gold broke above 1900 and confirmed a wedge/triangle close. Love it. To me, this is an opportunity to go long. As we see in breakouts, retests are possible. In this case, price can pull back to retest the 1900 zone as it is an important psychological number. In terms of a trendline break, we want to cushion our stop loss below the daily break out candle. In this case, I would say that our long trade is valid as long as the daily candle of Gold does not CLOSE below 1885. So you all know my LONG term targets, but if one just wanted to swing trade Gold, what are some targets to consider? New record highs in my opinion. So what I did in that chart was use the handy dandy fibonacci tool on the recent upwards wave on the weekly chart of Gold. Looking at my fib, you can see price bounced at the 50 fib. Very nice. But we are all interested in the upward fibs. My fib targets for a TRADE would be 2224 and 2462 (let's just use the 2500 zone). Once again, we probably won't reach those targets on a straight pop, but expect some pullbacks on the way up there. Resistance at previously record highs at around 2080 is where we could see some profit taking and perhaps some sellers jump in. There will be a battle there. Once again, the macro picture is very positive for Gold. A final word regarding the Senate run-off. If the Democrats win, many are expecting the stock markets to drop. If this does occur, I think Gold and Silver do as well. Since February of this year, Gold has moved with the stock markets. I am still awaiting for a divergence. This will eventually happen, and perhaps Democratic money spending is the trigger for this. So, if we see markets drop tomorrow or for the rest of this week, Gold could pullback to retest our trendline break. Nothing to worry about. It is just if the markets decide they want to drop lower, in this scenario, I would be very intrigued to see how Gold reacts at the breakout zone. Of course if the markets pop, so will Gold . Oh and one more thing...well two technically: The GDX and the GDXJ have bounced at our large weekly support zones (which we broke out in April and June). It took us a few months to gain some momentum at this support and this is why patience is key. The technicals held, so our long term trades were valid. Trust the system and your analysis. There were some scary dips below support for the GDXJ, but we reversed and climbed back above. But of course, most of you probably see what I see. Both the GDX and the GDXJ have the same sort of triangle pattern, although some would say this is a pennant/flag pattern. Regardless, the trendline break indicates a momentum shift. Very exciting going forward for the Gold market. In summary, a trade is triggered, but for the longer term move as mentioned in my past post, we would want to see a WEEKLY close above the triangle on the Friday close. Pullback is possible and is welcomed because it would meet our criteria for market structure. This pullback can take us back to our trendline break, and we want to see price remain above 1885 on the candle close. Gold can still fall with the stock markets, but sooner than later, we will get the divergence.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
Cannabis will reach the US... sooner than later!Recent significant events: House Passes Bill to Protect Banking for Marijuana Businesses Measure would prevent federal regulators from penalizing institutions that serve companies operating in states where cannabis is legal. // September 25th, 2019 House committee approves landmark bill legalizing marijuana at the federal level The House Judiciary Committee (Democratic-controlled) approved a bill that decriminalizes marijuana on the federal level, removing it from Schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act. The legislation, which passed 24 to 10, has a high chance of approval in the full House where Democrats control the chamber with 234 seats. It’s likely to face a tougher battle in the Republican-controlled Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell opposes marijuana legalization. // November 19th, 2019 There is no date for the senate to review the bill; we could see large volatility then. (will update asap) Technical analysis: Volume on the ladder of the events created the 3rd largest volume daily since MJ ETF was created (2016). 20SMA is our nearest resistance. --Keeping cannabis related stocks/ETFs closely watched.
AMEX:MJLong
by dorfmanmaster
A time for friendship Fiscal Reform in the US The Republicans failed to agree on Thursday so they postponed voting on the bill on Friday. Because of the minimal edge, the vote of every Republican is important for success of the reform, that’s why senators have to seek for a tradeoff with the "fiscal hawks", who see an acute problem in expansion of the budget deficit as a result of the tax cuts. Nevertheless, it is not clear at all whether the Senate will be able to reach constructive agreements on Friday. The dollar was able to recover losses, and stock markets rose after supporters of the bill were able to get Senator John McCain into their ranks, which, incidentally, opposed to the failed healthcare reform. Yields on US debt securities rose due to upbeat data on inflation and unemployment claims in October. The market expects a rate hike in December and several increases in 2018. The oil market The meeting in Vienna ended with extension of the pact until the end of 2018, leaving a hole for reviewing the agreements in June 2018 in case the market feels very good. In my opinion, the second condition was the key result of the meeting showing high confidence of OPEC in a friendly behavior of its rival - American oil shale companies. However Russia looked at the reverse side of the problem - getting out of the deal so as not to stay out of the way if the shale companies begin to behave aggressively. This can again lead to a collapse in the market. It remains unlikely that shale companies will dramatically increase investment to increase production. Most likely we will see an increase in dividend spending for waiting-too-long shareholders. Aggressive behavior is likely to be condemned because it will doom companies again for price wars and cut profits that shareholders are unlikely to tolerate. In addition, the industry has a high level of debt financing, which also significantly reduces the safety of shale companies in the competition with OPEC. After a slight correction, prices again have room for growth in the direction of $70 per barrel. Catalysts, as usual, will be supplies outages in various regions and improving demand outlook. Arthur Idiatulin
FX:UKOILLong
by Tickmill
Senate&House tax bill clash pushes dollar lowerThe US Senate released its soft version of tax-cut plan on Thursday featured with two stages of implementation. In particular, firms may need to wait for tax breaks till 2019 what leaves a little from anticipated stimulus boost, though less risky for government budget. The budget committee has already approved a reform option and next week the House of Representatives will vote, which is expected to point out the Senate's unjustified caution. The development of reform can lock into a cycle where the initiatives of the Upper and Lower Chambers will be reviewed several times until they work out common decision. The more differences between the reform options, the longer markets will be kept in suspense. Investors in the fixed income market seem to expect a more aggressive version of the reform as they hastened to sell bonds after Senate update. Yield of 10-year US sovereign debt jumped from 2,320% to 2,372% on Thursday and keeps rising on Friday. The US dollar holds moderate declines, preferring to save optimism for the next week. This week turned out to be the most unsuccessful for US currency during the last month as investors were disappointed with the news about a potential delay in tax breaks for firms. It is noteworthy that both bills will cost the government $1.5 trillion for 10 years, so in terms of the amount of expenditures they are identical and can not cause any discord. Also, both plans want to tax $ 2.6 trillion of US profits abroad, with the Senate offering a tax rate of 12% for cash and liquid assets, and the House of Representatives - 14%. From this point of view, the version of Senate look more attractive. Morgan Stanley called the slip of tax plan as the main reason for increasing short positions on Dollar, as against the backdrop of a global recovery the US economy needs to warrant faster growth outlook to remain attractive to investors. If this is not shown, the outflow of capital will begin in search of greater yield in foreign markets. The uncertainty that will drag on next week will probably take the dollar even lower, before it can move into growth. Medium-term dollar selloff look quite reasonable given the current development of the tax reform situation. Arthur Idiatulin
Short
by Tickmill