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September2023

9/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The action since Wednesday was further evidence of just how powerful simple technical analysis can be. Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1 year old trendline support, showing the power of the bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 lows, with the March 2023 lows. This trendline was tested on Wednesday and resulted in a large bullish daily hammer candle at support, followed by a continued upward trend on Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up, Hong Kong up very strongly, mainland China close for a week 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts PCE reports comes in lighter than expected. US government shutdown looms. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into melt-down. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4385 now to set a “sustained bottom”. This is far away now, but still worth remembering if we get a sustained, multi-day relief rally. Support Levels 4335 (major), 4322-25, 4313, 4308 (major), 4297 (major), 4280, 4270, 4260-62 (major), 4250, 4245, 4232-36 (major), 4220, 4212 (major), 4208 (major), 4198, 4190 (major), 4170-75 (major - this is a wider zone), 4156, 4150 (major), 4125 (major). Resistance Levels 4351 (major), 4366, 4372, 4382 (major), 4385, 4391, 4400-4405(major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4432, 4439 (major), 4446, 4460, 4468 (major), 4476, 4485-90 (major), 4496. Trading Plan The bull case would look something like base more then head up the levels to 4372-82, dip there, then push higher to 4k, 4424, then ultimately 4468. The big bear case only begins when 4297 fails. I don’t chase and I very obviously would not short the fail there after a 50-point sell. If we test 4297 though, put in a tradeable bounce, then build a nice base, I’d be short 4289 for a move lower down the levels. It could be a very deep one. Wrap Up Bulls put in their latest shot at a relief rally, this time at a very significant, 11 month long support. All other attempts have failed after a day. My general lean is bulls can try a little higher and the bounce is in play as long as 4297 keeps hold. This would look something like base/correct more, then push up the levels to 4366, 4372, 4382, then dip again. Ideally, bulls can hold 4335 or 4322 on any dips today. 4297 fails, we start the next deep leg lower. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/28 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The SPX market has been tracking seasonals with extreme precision. The last two weeks of September, which are typically the worst of the year, saw ES selling virtually non-stop from the FOMC last Wednesday until yesterday’s low. After a final flush lower, ES put in a violent relief bounce/short squeeze. This process tracked nicely from Tuesday’s newsletter, with a rally to 4335 followed by a sell-down for a final leg into a new low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Choppy, down very slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts US GDP report shows a slight slowdown in consumer spending. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into meltdown. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4485 now to set a “sustained bottom”. 4335-40 remains the single most important level. It is the backtest of the 9 month base we broke out on June 1st, that started the “summer 2023 melt-up”. This connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This remained a battleground zone all week and yesterday, we backtested it from below and continued lower. Support Levels 4308, 4296-97 (major), 4290, 4280, 4268-72 (major), 4258, 4254, 4245, 4231-36 (major), 4213 (major), 4205 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-72 (major), 4153. Resistance Levels 4314, 4320-22, 4335-40 (major), 4352 (major), 4356, 4366 (major), 4375, 4382 (major), 4390, 4399, 4410, 4419-24 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4465-67 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to defend 4296-97, the single most important support level. If it fails, it's back into the same old free fall. For those who like counter-trending though, 4267-72 and 4231-36 are good spots to knife catch. On the resistance front, 4335-40 is well-tested now and it could blow through. Preferred spots to engage on the short side would be fresher levels higher up, such as 4366 now as it gives some space. Wrap Up Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1-year-old trendline support. Now, they need to follow through. As long as 4296 keeps hold, we can base build between 4296 and 4335, then take a run to 4366+. If 4296 fails, it's sell again to 4270 then 4235. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The ultra-bearish confluence we found ourselves in last week has continued with the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally in late September and the breakdown of the ES chart pattern at 4472. This has resulted in a sell-off with a major magnet at the 4335 level. Despite a brief green day and a 45 point bounce, further revisiting of the 4335 level has indicated bad news for the bulls. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle pattern remains the primary pattern. The bulls need to reclaim this pattern at 4485 to set a "sustained bottom". The 4377-83 level has been a significant ceiling and the 4336 level remains the most important level, acting as the backtest of the 9 month base. Support Levels Support levels to watch for are: 4308, 4291-96 (major), 4280 (major), 4269, 4253, 4232-36 (major), 4219, 4212, 4205, 4190, 4181, 4165-70 (major), 4147, 4135, 4125 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to note are: 4314, 4322, 4335-38 (major), 4351-49 (major), 4360, 4366 (major), 4377-4383 (major), 4391, 4400, 4417 (major), 4424, 4439-41 (major), 4449, 4455, 4467 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan The bear case continuation begins again on the fail of 4290. The best shorts are always backtests on bounces. One possibility would be the loss of today’s low, perhaps 4307 for the final flush into support above. The 4290 breakdown would also be a short, but I’d need extensive acceptance here first then I’d be getting short very high 4270s for a large sell leg again into the 4230s. The bull case would involve ES holding 4291 as the absolute lowest, then reclaiming that level. I’d need to see 4335-38 test, then a sell at the level. Then I’d need to see price return there to accept it and build a base, after which I’d be looking long, perhaps high 4330s. Wrap Up We’re approaching a key support area between 4290 and 4297. This area marks the 50-day moving average and prior swing highs from August. As long as prices hold above 4290-4297, the index may be poised to bounce and put in a relief rally after the recent sell-off. However, if 4290 fails to hold as support, we could see a test of the 4280 level which marks the 200-day moving average. Below 4280, the next major support is around 4232-4236 which was the June low. In summary, 4290-4297 is an important support zone to watch. A bounce from here could signal a relief rally, but breaking below would open the door for a retest of the 200-day MA at 4280 and potentially the June lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1
9/26 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week ended with significant selling, the most we've seen since the bull market began nearly a year ago. The selling was anticipated due to a breakdown of a triangle pattern after the FOMC last Wednesday. We experienced four consecutive red days, a rarity, with the largest red day since March 2023 occurring last Thursday. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News Asian stocks lower on more problems in China’s property developers. Key Structures The primary pattern remains the large, multi-month triangle, which we broke down last Wednesday. Bulls need to reclaim this triangle at 4483 to set a sustained bottom. Below there, 4418 is key, with clearance triggering back to 4470+. The 4377-83 trendline, connecting the major swing lows of June 26th and August, is also important to watch. The single most important support level below price right now is 4336, a very significant level. Its defense is crucial for the broader bull market. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4341, 4335 (major), 4322, 4315-13 (major), 4297, 4290 (major), 4280, 4268, 4253 (major), 4232-37 (major), 4212, 4205, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major), 4150. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4377, 4383 (major), 4393, 4400, 4415-4418 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4460-65 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4523 (major), 4531, 4539 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would see a base build in the 4353-4383 zone, then a push higher. The push would be level to level, targeting 4393, then heading up to 4415-18. The bear case starts on the fail of 4335. A higher risk short is at 4353. Wrap Up If 4353 fails, we retest 4335, which is a must hold — if that fails, we fall to 4322, then 4313-15. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/25 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up sharply 🔮 Crypto: Down World News The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major). Trading Plan Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force. Wrap Up We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and will end when resistance clears or a failed breakdown occurs. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signaling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The primary pattern is the large, multi-month triangle in yellow with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75 (thin grey line). Key supports to watch are 4385, 4366, and 4335. The "final bottom" is only in when the original pattern that started the sell-off reclaims. Support Levels Major support levels are at 4366, 4355, 4330-35, 4322, 4316, 4296, 4285-90, 4268, and 4253. The next major support down is 4366 with 4355 below there. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels are at 4382-85, 4425-18, 4442-39, 4469, 4473-75, 4485, 4505, 4515-20, and 4542-45. The first resistance up is the 4382-85 zone. Trading Plan There is no bull case until a resistance clears, with the first being the 4382-85 zone. A safe bet for longs are always failed breakdowns or the reclaim of a resistance. For shorts, the safer bet is on backtests. The bear case remains strong, but there is high short squeeze risk. Shorts from here are best done on backtests rather than breakdowns. Wrap Up After a week of high volatility and a bearish trend, the market remains uncertain. It's important to remember that the goal is wealth building by stacking and compounding gains day after day, month after month, year after year, not catching every move. As such, trade with caution and protect your profits. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signalling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. Resistance is at 4550 now, with support at 4473. This pattern has driven trading all month and yesterday we lost support, indicating that bears are in control. A reclaim of this level would see ES push back to 4496, and likely clear it for a move back towards triangle resistance. Support Levels Key support levels for today include 4439-35 (Major), 4425-18 (major), 4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4382-85 (major), 4377, and 4366 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch out for today are 4448, 4460, 4465, 4473 (major), 4486-88, 4496, 4504 (major), 4514 (major), 4524, 4532, 4542(major), 4548 (major), 4556, 4562, 4566, 4574, 4580-85 (major), 4595-4600, and 4609 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to stay nimble and non-biased, taking level to level pieces and getting to the sidelines. The bearish sentiment means that bounces are likely to fade and supports to melt through. The most important level to track is 4473, which was yesterday’s breakdown point. If we get a relief bounce, the first touch of 4473 probably represents a good short. Wrap Up Post-FOMC trading is complex and requires a reactive approach. The general lean for today is a possible relief bounce to backtest the 4472 zone with 4439 and 4425 being possible spots. ES is likely to reject on that backtest. Always remember to protect your profits and trade smartly, even in volatile market conditions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th. Support Levels Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336. Resistance Levels Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major). Trading Plan Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/19 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Slightly lower 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World News FOMC rate announcement set for 2 pm (EST). Key Structures The enduring yellow triangle is still the dominant pattern, now with adjusted support at 4465.25 and resistance at 4499.50. The 4542 level continues to be a multi-month magnet. A breakout above this level could suggest a potential upward move out of the triangle. The 4505-4496 zone remains relevant, especially after the first week of September showed some base-building in this area. Support Levels Supports now sit at: 4465.25 (major), 4473-4467, 4485, 4496, 4504 (major), 4445-43 (major), 4424, 4418 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major), 4377, 4363-65 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances have been adjusted to: 4499.50 (major), 4512, 4515, 4525-27, 4537, 4542 (major), 4547, 4556, 4566 (major), 4578, 4580-85 (major), 4590, 4601, 4609 (major), 4620 (major), 4627, 4634, 4643, 4647-54 (major). Trading Plan The 4504-4496 region remains a crucial support area. Instead of entering long positions here, consider waiting for a dip to 4485 or lower and then a reclaim of yesterday's lows for a bounce play. If the market keeps sliding, 4465.25 becomes the last line of defense as it's the new triangle support. In terms of resistance, 4499.50 and 4542 are pivotal points for potential sell-offs. If ES consolidates between 4496 and yesterday's highs, it could be a good spot to consider adding long exposure. Wrap Up Post-FOMC decisions, ES may still have some room for a relief rally. This scenario remains valid as long as the 4496-4504 zone holds, targeting 4542. If 4496 gives way, caution is advised, with 4465.25 serving as the ultimate support for a deeper sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly World News Numerous major central banks including the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meeting this week as uncertainty around inflation and rates weighs on markets. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. 4465 level being support and resistance being 4560ish now. 4542-45 is a multi-month magnet level. This level has been important since June and will remain a pivot to trade around. 4505 is a key support level that must hold for bulls. Support Levels Supports are: 4496, 4489, 4478 (major), 4468, 4463-65 (major), 4449 (major), 4439, 4432, 4424, 4415-18 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4505 (major), 4511 (major) 4522-25, 4532 (major), 4537, 4542-45 (major), 4549, 4556-4558 (major), 4569, 4574, 4580-84 (major), 4591, 4603, 4609 (major), 4614, 4622, 4633, 4643-45 (major), 4653 (major). Trading Plan Bull case today: Bears control until a resistance clears, and that is the 4505-12 zone right now. This would start a push up the levels to 4532, possibly as high as 4542-45. Bear case today: Bears have the ball still. The obvious magnets on the downside are 4479, then 4463 triangle support. Wrap Up We just had a 65 point single day selloff and it's extremely hard to have any predictability from here. My general lean though is that we can relief bounce ideally from last Friday’s lows. This would look something like test 4505-11, perhaps dip or base, then push up to the 4530s. If ES clearly struggles to get off the floor and above 4505-11, then we continue down directly with 4494 a possible trigger. Magnet remains 4479 then 4463. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to 4540ish, saw a dip, then continued up to 4560+. We are now up 65 points from Wednesday’s low, but with heavy resistances overhead. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World News UAW strike closes Ford, GM, and Stellantis factories. Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4460 level being support and resistance being 4562-65. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4460-4565 is a broad chop range. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. The 4460 support level connects the two rising August lows. Higher lows means uptrend and if August 20th was “the bottom” for any type of sustained uptrend - that will need to hold. Support Levels The major support levels are 4543-45, 4529-32, 4506, 4476, 4461, 4425, 4418, and 4392. These are not comprehensive and some are simply select major structures to take note of. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are 4562, 4573, 4580-4584, 4609, 4640, and 4648. We are closing Thursday at major resistance, having arrived finally at triangle resistance — noted in the dashed green and red horizontal lines. This is a big level, a complex level, and a level that will take time to work through. Trading Plan My trading plan for Friday is to trade small and seldomly, with the only objective being to protect my profits from this week. I have no edge after a large one directional move and I expect messy, complex action. For those longing, I would recommend small size and freefall risk is high. Only levels marked as major are spots for knife catches. If we continue the push higher, for those looking for counter-trends 4580-84 would be one spot to engage as would 4609. Wrap Up We've just had the clean move I had been waiting on all week and now is time for price discovery and waiting for price to show its hand. We are currently at a major resistance zone, with the RSI highly extended and the easy money is made on the long side. Given I have exceeded my profit average for the week by a significant margin, I will largely be sidelined on Friday. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/14 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Up World News More stimulus for the Chinese economy as the PBoC lower the bank reserve rate Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4459 level being support and resistance being 4565-70. This is the core pattern for September and everything between 4459-4570 is a broad chop range. The pattern has a mild 60% upward resolution bias, but traders need to be prepared to trade it whichever way it breaks. Support Levels Supports are at 4516, 4512, 4502 (major), 4496, 4486, 4468-72 (major), 4459 (major), 4443, 4438 (major), 4425, 4418, 4410, 4400, 4392(major), 4377, 4366, 4355 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4522 (major), 4528, 4532-35 (major), 4540-42 (major), 4549, 4556, 4565-70 (major), 4573, 4580, 4585 (major), 4598, 4605-08 (major), 4617, 4624, 4633 (major), 4642, 4647-50 (major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673. Trading Plan Bulls control as long as 4502 keeps holding. If it does, resistance of the triangle at 4565-70 remains the macro target. If 4502 fails, bears win and traders should consider shorting for a move down the levels, likely to 4460 at least. Trading within the 4500-4540 range is unpredictable and price will play the levels. Wrap Up Despite the volatility and traps of CPI trading days, Wednesday showed that with careful planning and strategy, it's possible to navigate these challenges successfully. The key is to wait for the initial trap or two, take profits at the first major level, then get out and hold a runner in case we trend. This approach makes these difficult, trap-filled days very high win rate, easy sessions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/13 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The market experienced a choppy session yesterday with both bulls and bears getting trapped. The price confusion was expected due to today's CPI. After a 60-point relief bounce from Thursday's low to Monday's highs, the market spent much of yesterday swinging in a wide, bi-directional range. The session was spent mostly in the 4520-4540 ping pong zone. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World News Monthly core inflation prints much hotter than expected at 0.3% vs the 0.2% consensus. Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4454 level being support and resistance being 4570ish now. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4454-4570 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4516, 4525 (major), 4532 (major), 4540-42, 4545-47 (major), 4556, 4562, 4569-72 (major), 4581, 4585 (major), 4590, 4597, 4605-4609 (major), 4615, 4630-33 (major), 4638, 4648(major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673, 4681 (major). Trading Plan Today is CPI Day and it is expected to be one of the most volatile, random, difficult, and trap-filled days of the year. The introduction of an external data catalyst introduces an enormous amount of sometimes impossible to trade algo-driven noise. The rule for trading these days is to size down and do not over-trade. There is absolutely no reason to incur a large loss on a day that all traders know fully in advance will be challenging. It is not uncommon to see 100+ point moves both ways. Wrap Up In summary, there is no predictability to CPI days and one can only know the levels and be prepared to react. These are my least favorite days to trade of the year. If it were a normal day (which is all I can go by), my general lean is as long as 4503-4497 defends, that we push back to 4540s, perhaps dip once more, then try the run to triangle resistance at 4569-72. That is the decision point and it needs to breakout to formally start the next leg up. 4497 fail and we work down the levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/12 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly World News G20 ends with very little progress or policy change aside from pledge on renewables. Key Structures The large, triangle that has formed with the 4450 level being support and resistance being 4572 is now the core pattern for September. Everything between 4450-4572 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/11 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanIMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely. Recap Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year. Key Structures The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/8 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August rally. Market Outlook: Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down World News G20 Leaders Summit this weekend in New Delhi. Key Structures The big picture structures/levels relevant for today include 4485-90, 4466, 4448, and 4416. These are not comprehensive, nor are they predictive. Support Levels The support levels for today are: 4448-50(major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4410-15 (major), 4402, 4390 (major), 4383 (major), 4377, 4356-58, 4348 (major), 4339, 4326-30 (major), 4317, 4311 (major), and 4293 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4456, 4466 (major), 4473, 4485-90 (major), 4496, 4509-05 (major), 4517 (major), 4523, 4532, 4537-40 (major), 4547, 4558, 4565, 4575-80 (major), 4592, 4597 (major), 4607-11, and 4624 (major). Trading Plan This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding. The bear case is the loss of 4448. If that happens, bulls will want to see it recover fast. If it can’t and demand is clearly absent, I’d be looking to get short 4438 for a move down to 4424. Wrap Up Today is the final day on September contracts and the final day you will be seeing these levels. My general lean is that we can continue to defend 4448-50, then try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-4500. If 4448 fails, its a warning that we need another leg lower to 4424 at least. These are very complex conditions - trade light and trade seldomly. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/7 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it lost yet again, and ES immediately went into a one directional, relentless sell-off. Market Outlook: Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down World News China’s iPhone ban from government offices to expand to state owned companies weighing on tech. Key Structures These are some big picture structures that I am watching now: - 4493-87: This level has been a critical pivot since June for several reasons. - 4448-54: This was an important level in August. - The 4409-13 level: This has been key all August and is also the white trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low. Support Levels Supports are: 4466, 4460 (major), 4454-4448 (major), 4440 (major), 4429, 4423, 4414-10 (major), 4402, 4389 (major), 4382, 4376 (major), 4364, 4357, 4344-48 (major), 4338, 4323-27 (major), 4317, 4311, 4295 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4473, 4485, 4493-87 (major), 4502, 4509, 4516 (major), 4523, 4531 (major), 4537-41 (major), 4551, 4560, 4570-75 (major), 4584, 4592 (major), 4597 (major). Trading Plan For the bull case, the relief bounce case depends on 4448-54 continuing to hold. If ES returns to the level after any dip, its a warning its about to rip through. For the bear case, bears have the ball for now and until proven otherwise. There are many spots to short weakness here, but one area I do like is on the fail of 4440. Wrap Up We broke down yesterday. In terms of direct downside, it begins on the fail of 4440 today. With rollover coming up, expect complex trading and I’ll just be looking to take my level to level piece and get out. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/6 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a significant 4-day trend to the upside, we've entered a period of chop and correction. The ES spent the majority of the session pinned around the 4515 level, punishing over-traders with a late-day dip. After a 180-point rally in the last week of August, ES is now setting up its next move. Market Outlook: Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts to the end of the year reigniting fears higher oil prices will increase odds of a global recession. Key Structures Big picture structures and levels being watched include the channel (blue/purple dotted) trendline at 4538-42, a broadening formation/megaphone pattern with support at 4487 and resistance at 4565, a yellow declining channel from the August high with a backtest point at 4493, the 4464-67 zone, and the 4409-13 level. Support Levels Key supports are at 4503, 4487-93, 4474, 4464-67, 4453, 4448, 4437-40, 4423, 4411-13, 4402, 4389, 4382, 4375, 4360, 4348-50, 4338, 4324-27, 4317, 4311, and 4287-93. Resistance Levels Key resistances are at 4509, 4516, 4520, 4527, 4538-41, 4548, 4558, 4565, 4573, 4583, 4592-94, 4607, 4617-20, 4628, 4638-42, 4652, 4668, 4678, 4686-89, and 4705-08. Trading Plan The plan is to carefully pick spots for trading, as the current range is expected to continue eating up over-traders. Bids might be placed directly at 4503, with an interest in playing tests or fails of that zone. If we get back up to the 4516-20 resistance, it's likely to clear but may have one final dip. A possible breakout trade is available above 4523, but this would need to be followed by another dip and an acceptance base. Wrap Up We've had a super slow start to September and are currently in a choppy, post-rally consolidation period. The general lean is that 4503 and 4487-93 are supports for today. As long as these are defended, we will continue the base building back up to 4516-20. If 4487 fails, it implies ES will need to retrace a large chunk of the late August rally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/5 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August concluded with a remarkable five-day high streak in ES, marking about 150 points of total upside. Following this impressive rally, the market spent the rest of the week mainly in the range between 4540-4515. Friday's session was particularly messy, as predicted, due to the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP announcement on Friday morning. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World News Slowing economic data out of Europe and China. Key Structures The key structures to watch for include 4537-42, which is now the most critical resistance level, and the yellow declining channel from the August high with 4493 backtest point. Another significant zone is 4466-70, which was crucial throughout August. The 4408-13 level has been a magnet all August and is also a significant bull/bear line. Support Levels The support levels to watch for are 4515 (major), 4505, 4498, 4492-87 (major), 4466-70 (major), 4460, 4453, 4448, 4440 (major), 4430, 4423, 4408-13 (major), 4390, 4383 (major), 4373, 4363, 4348-52 (major). Resistance Levels The resistance levels to watch for are 4523, 4527-4533, 4537-42 (major), 4557, 4570, 4580 (major), 4590-92 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4618, 4624, 4636 (major), 4652 (major), 4664, 4672, 4683-85 (major). Trading Plan The trading plan for today is dependent on two levels: 4515 and 4493-87. As long as these levels hold, the path is higher. However, if 4515 fails, we may see more correction and test 4492-87. It's crucial to give markets the time they need after large moves and not to prematurely look for trend continuation. Wrap Up After a significant four-day upward trend, the market is now in a phase of correction and consolidation. The key is to be patient and not to rush into trades. The current price action suggests that as long as the 4515 level holds, we can expect a continuation of the range between 4515 to 4537-42, followed by a potential breakout. However, if the 4515 level fails, we may need to brace for more correction and a test of the 4492-87 decision point. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/1 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged World News Non-Farms Payrolls report reinforces the Fed soft landing narrative. Key Structures After a relentless 4-day rally, ES finally experienced a pullback. The ES put in the bottom trigger nearly a week ago, which led to a significant trade gain. However, the risk of rug pulls increased after 4 green days into a major resistance. Despite an attempt at a sell, the dip was bought again, suggesting that bears have lacked follow through. Support Levels Support levels include 4516 (major), 4502 (major), 4493, 4479-81, 4466, 4448-54 (major), 4440, 4425 (major), 4411 (major), 4400, 4384, 4378-76 (major), 4356 (major), 4348, 4335, 4320-25 (major), 4311, 4297 (major) Resistance Levels Resistance levels include 4527-31 (major), 4537 (major), 4544, 4454, 4565-68 (major), 4581 (major), 4592, 4597, 4607-4612 (major), 4618, 4624 (major), 4632, 4644, 4657 (major), 4662, 4677-4680 (major), 4691, 4701 (major), 4715. Trading Plan Today is the final session before a holiday weekend, and it will likely be a mess to trade. The bull flag that broke out has support at 4502, and therefore, bulls want that to hold after NFP today. The bear case would need 4502 to fail. In general, today is a day to be cautious with trading due to the recent rally and upcoming holiday. Wrap Up This week has seen a "trade of the year" with a 155 point rally. However, with today being the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP, the market conditions are poor for trading. The general lean for today is a dip to 4502, maybe undercut to 4492, then try to continue back up to build a range more. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro