SFIX
SFIX Buy SignalBacktesting results came back at 96% profitable on SFIX. We are currently getting a buy signal, so check out SFIX and don't miss out on these profits!
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SFIX good day trade on either side but more bullish SFIX has an interesting daily chart, currently it has gaped up above all its major moving daily averages. Looking at the 5 min chart, you can see that its making lower highs and is showing weakness, but it has got a lot of support to got through, so I am more inclined to take it for a long if it starts showing strength and gets above its vwap and 20 ema. I would go long on it as that stage and add to it if it clears the 32.22 daily pivot that I have drawn. This long setup would work if the SPY works in favor and stays above the 20 ema daily.
SFIX Earnings next weekSFIX earnings, gapped up last time so you figure shorts will cover before earnings.
Set up nicely with a hammer for a one or two day play. Planning on cashing out before earnings, maybe keep a few calls for kicks and giggles.
Buy SFIX at $24.50Much improved membership growth from most recent quarter earnings. Disruptive innovation in the retail industry with AI integrated in its service. FIB and the trend lines both agree that $24.50 is a great entry point.
Preparing for March 11 earnings week (SFIX)
Brief overview:
- Earnings after close.
- End of Friday (3/9/2019) had an upturn in the after hours, trading above the VWAP, which indicates an uptrend
- This could be because investors have a good feeling about the earnings on Monday. However, there is no real telling of what can happen during earnings.
- Looking at the 3 year trend, it peaked in September at $53 (as of now, it's trading at around $25.70)
Diving into the charts:
- Huge gains in August:
- Why?
- Analyst upgraded SFIX to a buy
- Retail posted impressive quarterly reports, so overall sector was doing well
- It blew passed analyst estimated in reports for Q3
- Huge plummet from $53 to $22 around Q4 ER:
- Why?
- Q4 results scared off some investors
- Active clients increased only 2% at 2.74 million, missing estimates at 2.81 million
- There was a second plummet in December from $28 to $15.80
- Why?
- The entire market was skiddish
- Their earnings were good, but user growth didn't meet expectations. Active clients increased 7% at 2.93 million, missing estimates at 2.95 million.
- There was a bounce in Jan 2019
- Why?
- Entire market is recovering (and quickly... could be a bad thing?)
- Some investors believe the plummets in 2018 were an overcorrection.
What do I think?
- I'm no expert at reading charts or investing.
- Seeing a sharp increase in price in the after hours seems to make me want to be bullish
- I think SFIX is a long term stock and has a good chance of increasing its price value
- I would buy at open and sell before earnings. I would be weary to hold through an earnings call because anything can happen.
SFIX gonna fix my accountcurrently uptrending, the waters are beginning to clear up. Right on a key resistance level, right on my radar this week. Bullish
SFIX Earnings Conf CallMust have been one good conference call, SFIX was up 10% AH and then tanked. Now down 10%, ad sitting at $23 AH as I type this.
I doubt anyone is gonna buy this pig other than shorts covering. Quite frankly, the reviews for Stitchfix are terrible. Don't buy stock in any company that you wouldn't do business with. Not sure why anyone would want a company that sends Sperry products, especially if you have to ship to return stuff. That's more work than going shopping for stuff you actually want.
AH action looks bad enough to call for a target of $18 before next earnings.
Retail Rally Comes to A Screeching HaltToys R Us refuses to die. The hedge funds that own the debt of the bankrupt toy retailer decided to cancel an auction of assets and instead plan to revive the brand and even open new retail outlets. The prospects of another Toys R Us revival could become symbolic: the timing coincided with what looks like a top in retail stocks as represented by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).
XRT fell 3.3% on high trading volume to close at a 2-month low. The move confirmed the previous day’s 50DMA breakdown. The resulting reversal of XRT’s last breakout gives the index a very toppy technical pattern. While XRT is back to the consolidation pattern that preceded the breakout, a test of 200DMA support seems highly likely given the intensity of selling. XRT last closed below its 200DMA last November. A 200DMA breakdown would confirm XRT’s top.
If I were still playing my 2018 retail recovery thesis, I would have just sold everything here to lock in profits. I would next resolve to wait until holiday season headlines picked up steam for deciding next sector-wide moves. For now, I went scrambling for headlines trying to assess whether fundamental events agreed with the bearish technicals. Two other events stand out.
First, Amazon (AMZN) raised its minimum wage to $15/hour and lobbied Congress to raise the national minimum wage from a paltry $7.25/hour. Wall Street hates sharing profits and wage hikes shift a small amount of the loot from shareholders to workers. Moreover, wage increases translate into cost pressures and margin compression – anathema for stock prices.
Second, Stitch Fix (SFIX), an online retailer which sells customized clothing, was absolutely clobbered after its earnings report completely failed to satisfy investors hopped up on high expectations. The stock closed with a 35.2% loss that is still just a 2-month low. SFIX is a surprisingly sizable component of XRT with a 1% share. The largest holding has a 2.1% share (more on that later). I have been fascinated by the SFIX story ever since I heard the CEO tell her story. Now I am even more fascinated given the current volatility and a float which is sold 24% short.
Carvana (CVNA) is the largest holding in XRT with a 2.1% share. This company sells used cars online and delivers them from multi-story vending machines. CVNA dropped 5.2% on the day and broke down below its 50DMA. This 2017 IPO is on a tear and is up 185% year-to-date. CVNA traded almost down to $8 in 2017. The stock now looks like a short, but short interest is extremely high. I took particular interest in the news events surrounding what looks like a topping pattern in the making around all-time highs: a large owner dumped a significant number of shares, an important competitor made a noteworthy financial deal (I first learned about Shift 2 1/2 years ago in an intriguing talk by the CEO Minnie Ingersoll at Stanford University’s eCorner: “A Drive to Disrupt“), and an analyst upgraded CVNA to outperform right into the teeth of the selling with no effect. A complete reversal of post-earnings gains would confirm the top.
Surprisingly, Best Buy (BBY) does not show up in the top 10 holdings for XRT (cut-off at 1.4% share of assets). Still, the stock’s 4.8% drop and 50DMA breakdown confirmed the weakness in the retail sector. BBY is extremely important to watch here because a test of 200DMA support is in play. BBY last tested its 200DMA in September, 2017. BBY last closed below this support in July, 2016!
Finally, I checked out one of my favorite retail plays: Nordstrom (JWN). JWN sold off with the sector to close right at 50DMA support. The price is still too high for me, but I am a buyer if it manages to return to the extended consolidation period that preceded the impressive August post-earnings breakout.
Now retail has joined forces with other indices like small caps and financials to add weight to the anchor loading down the stock market. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above 40DMAs, dropped to a 6-month low at 37.2% even as the S&P 500 (SPY) closed flat (still near all-time highs) and the volatility index, the VIX, also closed flat. Losing retailers to a fresh sell-off like the one in 2017 would make me doubt the underlying health of the consumer and the stock market as a whole given home builders have struggled for most of 2018. Stay tuned…
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long SPY calls, long UVXY puts
{Look me up at Dr. Duru on StockTwits or Twitter or my blog!}
$SFIX Overbought at Resistance$SFIX Looking very overbought after an analyst price target increase earlier today. Money flow (MFI) has been on the decline since last week diverging from price action. Expecting a near term price correction.
Targeting $44.00 level at least, we will see if that holds as support...further downside possible.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
Stitch Fix - Buying opportunity around 24.64Price completed a 5-wave structure to the upside and is now developing a ABC structure.
We are looking for a long opportunity around the 24.64 region with a fib and structure confluence.
*Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
SFIX - Hammer Timestrong momentum in this stock, more then doubeling since its IPO
level of resistence was set at 30$ area
last week earnings push the stock up abive resistance and now 30$ is acting as support
today formed a bullish candlestick - green hammer which indicate that buyers are here
stop below 30$ and target at 35.5
could see 40$ in the not so far future
SFIX Aug18 $60 calls analysisA cup noticed on the daily chart from Dec27 to Jun22. A handle follows from Jun22 to Jul05 then the breakout on Jul06 above $30. Considering the depth of the cup (about $10), the target price is $40 and the stop loss price should be $25. There is no typical rule telling us when the target price would be reached; SFIX is a young stock but we have two occurrences of a run of $10:
• From Dec19 to Dec27 in 5 sessions;
• From Jun05 to Jun20 in 12 sessions.
Therefore, SFIX might reach $40 by Aug03; However, SFIX just have monthly options so one might consider Aug18 $40 calls.
