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MSFT - Downtrend BeginsMSFT looks to be breaking the current ascending wedge pattern. Price is breaking down right around the previously estimated breakdown point (white arrows). Yellow support line is exit (or top two gap fills). I am not sure the bottom gap will fill. Price may pause - need to determine further entry after top 2 gaps fill. After this next MSFT correction, this should be a great long entry position for next leg up. I am not entered in this position. Updating for others. I am not short on MSFT in general. Current price trend indicates short position (not my personal opinion of MSFT). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, and VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by MoneyPatterns
4
QQQ - Headed DownQQQ confirming we should be seeing a broader market pullback. Price breaking pattern at correct time. Price is reaching down towards 10WeekMA. If we cross red zigzag, this should confirm continued downtrend to white support. May be best to secure some profits at 10WeekMA, as QQQ looks to lag after the initial drop. RSI and Filter Dots confirm downturn started. We should see this for the remainder of the week IMO. I am not active in QQQ. The chart reflects Short because of the current price pattern prediction analysis. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by MoneyPatterns
2
SPY - Fib Levels and Gap FillsThe 0.618 Fib Level on recent price spike will fill top gaps down to $304. The 0.618 Fib Level from February 2009 until Present (10 Years+) coincides with past resistance/future support levels from August 2016. The lower 0.618 Fib Level would have SPY at $214 roughly. Next week we should find out if we have a small correction. It may take into January to see if we significantly lower. I am watching the breakdown of the current price pattern in the white ascending wedge. Once price breaks from here, I am watching to see if the pink channel fails. Below pink channel, there is a big drop down to the blue 10 year line support. News: While 2Yr/10Yr is not inverted, it is headed back towards zero. It took from August 1, 2029 to August 14, 2019 to go negative. We are at the same level now. Two weeks is not much. www.cnbc.com On CNBC Sri Kumar says the reason why unemployment is so low is because everyone needs two jobs because no one job will pay enough. 8mins into video. www.youtube.com Fed Repo (Repurchase) thru 12/12 is preventing natural market dynamics by funding the problem through "Not QE" New York Fed Reserve below shows Repo Operations through 12/12/2019 are about $35 Billion DAILY www.newyorkfed.org Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
4
AAPL - Correction Incoming - Mirrors SPY ChartAAPL is roughly 4.2% of SPY. The AAPL chart and SPY chart show many similarities. Both have a main wedge (blue) with a smaller internal wedge (yellow). Price action, RSI, and momentum on AAPL and SPY are almost identical. Break of white trendline would be a good entry, although I have seen several false breakdowns recently. I am expecting a break of the yellow wedge, filling the top 3 gaps (red boxes). For these reasons, I feel that once AAPL breaks trend in the upcoming week we will also see SPY go into correction. My position: I am currently in the AAPL 12/20 Puts. I have incurred a small loss waiting for the position to change momentum, which is expected. Small position size and buying Puts at least 30+ days out is key when entering before trend occurs, at the swing point. December 5th at latest, or 50% ($240 loss) will be exit point. Profit potential on this $480 Put was between $700-$2600 (SPY 300-270) However with current pattern, price, and momentum being exhausted, I will keep the current Put and buy another Put farther out. With trend at current point, any losses will be reduced as I get closer to expiry. Puts I am considering farther out - February 2020 and April 2020. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by MoneyPatterns
3
SPX / SPY - 30Min Chart - End Of Month HesitationSPX / SPY - has been ready to correct for over a week. Fed Reserve assistance has keep this afloat longer than predicted. When this happens, the downturn is normally more severe since what is currently keeping us afloat is unnatural. Blue line - Daily ascending wedge - bearish pattern Yellow lines - 1HR ascending wedge - bearish pattern Green lines - Price broke down from Yellow Wedge, but trading in consolidation pattern. Given current price position in the patterns, RSI, and other indicators, we are overstretched in every aspect. Given the end of month and overstretched chart, I feel we will see a turn down by next week. If we only see a small pullback during December, a larger pullback in January or February should occur. Either we get a pullback in December, or people with Fed money printing assistance are lulled into keeping money in market until next year to avoid capital gains. SPY is so overextended at this point, I cannot objectively see any path higher. If we do not see a turn down by end of next week, I will be looking to add another Put farther out or reposition the current Put. Bearish News for SPX / SPY Nov. 28 - China Is Walking a Tightrope Managing Financial Risks: Barclays - "multiple bank defaults and red flags at China banks" - www.youtube.com Nov. 27 - China lashes out after Trump signs bills supporting Hong Kong protesters - www.marketwatch.com Charts below show Daily Charts with other wedge patterns in better perspective (posted earlier). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
MSFT - Update - Not Ready - Pullback ComingNote - I am long term bullish on MSFT, but bearish on the upcoming trend. I trade the chart and pattern. This trade is not completely ready for Short or Puts, but is getting very close. MSFT- Ascending wedge is coming to an end. Price position in wedge is closer to breakdown point (support) than breakout point(resistance). Retesting any of the moving averages would allow MSFT to go higher. Pullback to green line is roughly 6% (great for options). Multiple gaps close enough to fill down. Almost no volume today on MSFT, similar to SPY. Price could break the pink wedge at either white arrow. Bullish trend is over extended and exhausted. Bearish trend is coming (in my opinion within a matter of weeks max). I will update the chart when/if I enter the position. If anyone needs an update on the chart, I am happy to post if you are in the position. Let me know by PM or by replying in this chart's comments. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MoneyPatterns
3
SPX / SPY - Running on FumesSPX / SPY pink channel is at exhaustion. We either breakout of the blue triangle next week, or start our downward retracement. If we breakout of the triangle, all short positions should be exited. Based on the chart, I am staying in this position until next week sometime or 50% loss on this option hedge. Both were acceptable losses for the payout. This is why small position size is key until trend breaks. Reasons for my bearish outlook: Price - Barely broke out of blue ascending wedge. Stopped at SPX 3149.4. This is computer buying, not people. Too precise. Moving Averages -Short term averages are hugging price. One slip will break these easily. Retest of 128SMA or 200SMA would qualified to go higher. Volume - No volume at this price. Volume slowly decreasing. RSI - Forming a double top currently. Last two times this happened went down afterward. In hindsight, timing second RSI failure would have been better entry. Trend - We are at top of bullish trend and time in bullish trend is exhausted, lacking momentum. Next step is down. Sources - Video Below - Aug 2019, Real Vision Finance - 43mins55secs until 45mins38. "just like China in 2015 where the algos run the price up and then they sell it off. We just haven't seen the selloff yet" www.youtube.com Stocks are climbing even though growth slowing. finance.yahoo.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
8
MTUM - Momentum ETF - Confirms SPY Slowdown ComingIf MTUM is a momentum based indicator ETF, and is related to SPY, then the following patterns would confirm SP500 bearish correction is coming. MTUM is the iShares ETF "Exposure to large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks exhibiting relatively higher price momentum" www.ishares.com In the pattern we see THERE IS NO MOMENTUM MTUM pattern has megaphone top. Tilted up expanding pattern. Price stalls and falls out at pink line. In addition we have a possible Triple Top formation. Multiple highs of the day on 5 candles hit $123 range, multiple days within pennies. We have topped out RSI, Fisher Transform almost topped out, all time high price, and gaps to fill below. For the reasons above, I feel this is a bearish pattern with bearish indicators in overbought territory. I do not have any active position in MTUM. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:MTUMShort
by MoneyPatterns
SPY - $290 by Jan. 1, 2020SPY bullish trend has ended on Daily view. On Weekly view, we are about to turn bearish indicating continuation of bearish trend. We are following previous fractal well, but this is not exact. We have several upcoming events: -Fed rate meeting - 12/11 - expected no change but rate increase is rising on chart www.cmegroup.com -Britain Elections - 12/12 - committee elected for Brexit. May have effect, may not. -Tariffs - 12/15 - Go into effect or get strung out again. I believe Trump will have no choice but to invoke tariffs on 12/15 if no China deal is reached. China is holding off with elections, impeachment fiasco, and stalling. Trump will need to save face as China tests his reserve if no deal is reached. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
15
DJIA - Weekly View - Matter of time - Part 2 of 2Daily view shows DJIA still ready for correction to continue downtrend. RSI, Fisher Transform, and Filter Dots all confirm price action just began downtrend. We will either go to First Stop resistance, or continue to main wedge resistance (slightly below). After this we need to watch for further breakdown possibility, or uptrend to 30,000. I feel that DJIA 30,000 is a psychological and algo-computer barrier where things will sell. This chart on the daily view supports that SPY should continue downtrend. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
TVC:DJIShort
by MoneyPatterns
4
DJIA - Weekly View - Matter of time - Part 1 of 2Ascending wedge pattern, within another ascending wedge. DJIA shows that broader correction in all equities should happen soon. Market is overbought, pattern is exhausted. Failure of inner ascending wedge still puts price pattern in other ascending wedge. Both bearish. This price action confirms that SPY should see further down movement. I will put up another daily chart showing closer price action. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
TVC:DJIShort
by MoneyPatterns
SPY - Downtrend Started - Part 2 of 2Price on 30Min view shows falling wedge pattern, which is normally bullish. Given downtrend, I feel this is false. Daily view shows we are going down, and downtrend has just started. Major uptrend in Daily has ended. Correction in 30Min shows downtrend begun. We may rebound at end of falling wedge. This is false breakout. Possible to enter downtrend or add to short position (puts) here. We should continue this downtrend to fill gaps. Please see Part 1 of 2 from today for Daily view. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
AMD - Overbought and Downgraded TodayAMD is severely overbought. It was downgraded in price this morning saying that fundamentals are overvalued. Red boxes are down gaps to fill. Ready for shorts or Puts. - BEAR FOOD Looks for plenty of time to enter safe and exit safe here. Competitor NVDA is looking stable, so probable that funds seeking chip coverage (not ETF) will go to NVDA not stay in AMD before Xmas. I am not active in AMD currently. May be this morning, but if someone needs an updated chart PM me. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by MoneyPatterns
19
MSFT - Ready for Downturn - Short/Puts2nd glance at this chart showed an ascending wedge pattern, instead of the channel from previous chart. Ascending wedge is normally bearish. Slope of wedge is high indicating break to downside. MSFT barely broke daily trend line today (thin white line). Max entry price for shorts/puts which I was considering was $155. I do not think we will get to $155. All bottom indicators either broke trend to downside at end of day, or are going to break tomorrow (Bottom filter dots indicator). Several down gaps to fill. Fractal from blue box shows same retracement will fill all gaps (with wick down into bottom box). MSFT declines previously seem to take longer than usual. For this reason, I will be using a put option (30 days out) and adjusting as we decline further out or taking profits to exit trade. I expect this market downturn to last through Christmas as people take profits. Banks and institutions are not leaving profits in before year start. They are able to write off losses, increase shareholders earnings, and then recycle back into the market in January. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL. MSFT put tomorrow 11/21.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by MoneyPatterns
3
SMH - Ready to Fail - Waiting for Short EntrySMH is following the trend with SPY, GOOGL, and AAPL. All are topped out, 70 RSI or higher, highly correlated, and susceptible to trade news. AAPL, GOOGL, and SMH all have plenty of gaps to fill below. I do not think some of the lower ones get filled. However, most gaps do get filled eventually given time. In my opinion, we are just waiting for a catalyst for knock all these stocks down. SPY is highly composed of AAPL and GOOGL. SMH normally acts as a leading indictor, but SPY is more inflated than SMH. This leads me to believe that we are on schedule for a pullback by December 1st or before. I am waiting for a short position to enter. I will be using a standard Put. About $250 or less risk, for $1400 reward if we pullback to $120 for SMH. Once we get closer I will update chart. Please do your own research and evaluate your own risk. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
SShort
by MoneyPatterns
Short (EUR/CAD). Looking for more downsideTechnically speaking Found resistance at 1.44 My first target on the downside is 1.41. I am holding a long EUR/JPY position and have around 200 pips locked in. So this EUR/CAD short is a hedge(somewhat) against my long but I didn't take the trade for that reason. If you like newsletters, trade ideas, and good investing stories, sign up below for my newsletter(it's free) because I am looking for feedback and yours would be greatly appreciated. Have a good day.
Short
by CalebDismuke
Short (NZD/USD) at 83.10.I am short at 83.10 with a stop at 83.25. I sold last Friday after a failure at the 83.20 level. My first target to B/E is ~80. Here is my framework on how I think through a trade. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? * In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute? " With intelligent estimations, we can work to get the rough order of magnitude right, understand the consequences if we’re wrong, and always be sure to never fool ourselves after the fact. " Questions, comments? please leave below. Have a good day.
Short
by CalebDismuke