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Shorttermbearish

Gold’s December Dilemma: Seasonal Rally or Further Decline?OANDA:XAUUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current Price: 2650.350 Executive Summary: Gold experienced a significant drop on Monday, November 25, after reaching $2,721, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and strong resistance. The price then fell to $2,605 and has since been consolidating within a bearish flag pattern. Currently, gold is trading at $2,650, showing mixed sentiment with short-term bearish potential and long-term bullish prospects. Technical Analysis: Bearish Flag (Short-Term Bearish) The bearish flag pattern suggests potential downside, signalling a continuation of the recent correction. While it’s possible that the price could rise to the strong pivot resistance at $2,695, which aligns with the upper boundary of the falling wedge, rejection from this level could result in a breakdown from the flag pattern. Alternatively, the price may fail to reach $2,695 and break below the flag. Key Levels to Watch: First Target: $2,617 (strong pivot and support). Next Target: $2,578 (ultimate support). Gap Fill: If $2,578 breaks, the price could decline to $2,565 (filling the gap from November 18). Psychological Level: A further drop could test $2,500, which coincides with the lower boundary of the falling wedge and serves as strong structural support. Falling Wedge: (Long-Term Bullish) In the long term, the falling wedge pattern suggests a bullish reversal. We expect the price to rebound from support levels near $2,565 or $2,500, resuming its bullish cycle. Gold could potentially rally to new all-time highs (ATH) during December, driven by seasonal demand and technical breakout momentum. Seasonality: Gold historically rallies in December, driven by holiday demand, portfolio rebalancing, and year-end events. Significant price increases were observed in December 2022 and 2023, and similar trends could support bullish momentum this year, barring any unexpected bearish developments. Final Note: Gold’s short-term sentiment leans bearish, with the bearish flag pointing to potential downside. However, the falling wedge suggests a strong long-term bullish outlook. Watch for key levels like $2,695, $2,617, and $2,500 for potential opportunities. Remember to practice tight risk management. Happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SpicyPips
1
BTC Potential H&S PlayAs BTC was recently rejected from the 200 day SMA (~$28,000) as well as the 0.5 Fib level (of rally June 16-23), the potential for Head & Shoulders pattern is coming into play. SPY is also testing lower trendline of it's rising wedge ("recession news" likely coming) and could capitulate, leading to further pressure on BTC. Just some Wine Wednesday speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see another sharp leg down before the end of the year. Long term bull, but "Uptober" might be a bulltrap.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DougCatBounce
BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel (updated).BTC and ETH trading bearish at the lower edge of a falling mid-term channel (which I have called in my ideas since Sep-03), after decisive bearish moves on reasonable volume . We are continuing Since Sep-22 for at least yet another swing up/down. Trading setup*: - in a falling mid term channel since Sep-07 from 52.9k - two decisive moves to the downside confirmed the channel on Sep-07 (52.9k -> 42.2k) and on Sep-21 (48.8k -> 39.7k) and defined size and angle of the channel - variant A has been invalidated on Sep-22 - trading long in B up to 45k from Sep-21 (has been successful) in the first step - in B, the higher value has been confirmed, hence trading from B down to 36.3k by shorting - planning to get there around Oct-04 --> all in all, this includes a long with ~8% profit and a short with ~20% profit. I will do this on 5x margin, and for fun I'll trade it in ETHUSD (for it has more volatility), even though this plan is about BTCUSD. - up to now price decline rejected at a major rising long term trend line 2 times (but on low + declining volume) --> watch this closely in the daily chart, breakout above local bearish pennant on reasonable volume could still invalidate trading setup Intermediate review - entry missed, hence lost some additional %% in the beginning - TP1 at B (45k) anticipated perfectly in time and price using my new technique (described in my idea "TA: Trying to find the perfect entry point for a short.") --> exited first long on a good profit - strong movements between Sep-24 and Sep-26 not anticipated, hence lost some trading opportunities - but "stick to your plan" as a matter of risk management - On Sep-2029 in a short from 45k, which is at 6% profit now (inbetween has been 10%), multiplied by 5 through leverage - trading setup essentially on plan up to now, going further *) I have been documenting my trades in this channel since Sep-21 in my idea "BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel". On Sep-22 I had to update the channel setup. My setup and decisions have become less visible in the old idea because the chart in it still pictures the old variant. That's why I moved it to this update here. _____ Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes. Never put your heart and your money in the same place. You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel.BTC and ETH trade at the lower edge of a falling mid-term channel (which I have called in my ideas since Sep-03), after decisive bearish moves on reasonable volume. I think we will continue for at least yet another swing up/down. I will trade this (on ETH for higher volatility) between the two fib lines of the last large uptrend, where I will look for exit / entry points. For BTCUSD it's the .236 , lining up with the .786 (B: .382 - .5) short term fib retrace level of todays down swing. For ETHUSD its the .382 fib level of the last longer uptrend. Tomorrow I will see if we're at variant A or B, depending on the power of the anticipated retrace / correction. Not the perfect entry now, but I need to go to bed ;-) _____ Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes. Never put your heart and your money in the same place. You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
1
BTCUSD: Next move down to 41.200.The recent BTCUSD movements have proven my perspective from Sep-03 right. We're heading down and a new trend channel to lower regions is about to open. Price retraced from the top of the last mid term rising trend, down to the 0.382 fib level. It retested the 0.236 fib level in a fresh swing to the upside. Now it looks as if it would get rejected there. This confirms the current mid-term downtrend. Where now? The next level we could be heading to is the 0.5 fib level of the last mid-term upswing at around 41.200, if we should poke through it we would see 38.5k as well. Large retracements like this would be little surprising, we had this before. If not, we could still see prices confirm the new falling channel with another 51k retest. I think that this is less likely. If price would hit 50k and rise above, my strategy would prove wrong. What do you think? _____ Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes. Never put your heart and your money in the same place. You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
Bears are back in town ...Guys, have you seen this live? :-) In my last chart idea I already looked sceptically at the volumes of the last "range breakout" - they were only a third of the least of range breakouts in the last year. That didn't look like the way to the new top to me. Today, Tue 2021-09-07, a heavy pullback hit BTCUSD and virtually all major cryptocurrencies. It started after the price almost touched 53k at 03:22 UTC , ending in a major bloodrush after 14:30 UTC , with BTCUSD (kraken) finally touching down as low as 42k. About 20% down within two hours . It kinda looked like a long squeeze. At the time of writing prices seem to stabilize around 47k . Now, this is where we have been one month before. This still could be just a healthy correction on the way to Scenario B and the next ATH , guys ... ;-) Would you buy that? It could as well be the case we're just back in Scenario A of the Idea I published four days ago. And this would mean that the market has no trust in a further way up yet after hitting the 63k in spring . That we need to get back to lower levels , yes, as deep as the 20s range. There we will fill our pockets, before we get back and make money and hit the 100k. Share your thoughts!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
BTCUSD correcting lower in the coming weeks.I stay with my view on the mid term development of BTCUSD price move. Missing upwards pressure and a breakout that failed due to low volume one week before were followed by a massive downside correction. This move set BTC back into an new falling channel which will lead prices down to the base path of the long term fib channel which has been valid since at least 2014. We will see falling prices until Q1-2022. Depending on the decidedness of this downside correction we will find good buying opportunities in the lower 30k or even uper 20k region by end Q1, beginning Q2 2022. _____ Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes. Never put your love and your money in the same place. You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
BTC/USDT: Bearish Descending Triangle (Short Term)Got a beautiful descending triangle getting drawn on the 1hr chart. These typically break out bearish. This is very bullish in the mid-long term. 1. Nicely resets the MACD & RSI on the 4hr. 2. Lines up perfectly with previous support/resistance when drawing the price target. 3. Should bounce perfectly on the bottom of the channel, great long opportunity if we can hold the bottom of that channel (drawn based on the current rally starting in July). 4. Gives us an awesome buying opportunity for the next rally to the upside. Let me know your thoughts below :)
Short
by erctrades
2
Short term bearish view on BTCUSD: Fib channels.For me, a likely scenario could be BTC dropping until Q2-2022, then long-term building up for next ATH. Why? Using long term fib channels we see that sell territory has always begun above the 0.5 line. When this had been reached, a correction to the channel below 0.236 followed suit - time for buyers. After BTCUSD has been in the channel above 0.618 it didn't drop there yet. That's where it may go next (scenario A). Why not moving further up, into scenario B? BTCUSD had never made a correction through more than 2 channels during a bullish phase. Now it already went through 4 of them. There are no new psychological or fundamental reasons why this time should be different (like the corona drop was in 03-2020). This makes scenario B rather unlikely for me. This is not a trading advice, just my private analysis.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
1
BTC/USD SHORT / LONG after BINANCE:BTCUSDT SHORT TERM We can see rising wedge on btc usdt ... Thats should be short-termed trend reversal . I think price can go down to 20.000 in short term ... Iam selling 30% CRYPTO now and if BTC falls more than 10.000USD i will sell another 30%... LONG TERM If my SHORT TERM thinking will be right ... it will be possible to form very BIG pennant wedge and falling trend reverse back to bullish & my first bullish targets in this scenario will be 80.000USD-100.000USD ---> maybe in December ... When I am looking to BTC for LONG term i think it will be BULLISH for next years ...
Short
by Chlvx187808
2
ADA-Short-Cardano (short-term bear)Hello traders and investors!!😄👋 Let's see if Cardano falls after reaching a new ATH very recently. If we see the fall, I have points set up that I am expecting ADA to reach in the range of. This is a short technical-analysis👇👇. Fundamentally, Cardano (ADA) is a very strong blockchain network. In the event that we go up for another ATH, I have bull target listed above on chart💹. This not a lengthy idea/post thank you. 🛑🛑🛑This is not financial advice🛑🛑🛑 Always have a stop loss ✋🛑💲 set please!!!!! Thank you so much! Jazerbay ☯
Short
by jazerbay
25
SHORT-TERM SHORT link(Chainlink) /USDT/(daily timeframe)Hello traders and investors 🙂👋! Today I was checking out some CHAINLINK, and I noticed I am seeing a similar pattern to BTC. I suspect we are headed down in the near future and will eventually intersect with the Purple trendline drawn, and then shoot up ⏫ to create a new ATH (all time high, at ~$45.56.)💜🤔✔↗ At that time it will be very important to watch closely and pay attention to market news etc..👀😃🕞📝🌎📌📅 CHAINLINK has a large CMC(Coin market cap) at 16.6B🤯, but it is a very desired Oracle network😮😌👌 LINK is one of the most successful data providers to many blockchains (through smart contracts,) of real world data 🌎✔👍⛓🔗👏🆗😃 Let's see if the market can maintain it's insane bull run🐮.. with this exponential virtual boom that's happening across the board(BTC, and many digital assets, NFT's, virtual land, etc.. have gained attention more than ever before, during this technology driven era!)✌🎰🖥📴📳📷💰☣☢ I always recommend looking at multiple charts/researching in depth before investing large amounts of money! 🆗💲🧐 🛑🛑🛑This is not financial advice🛑🛑🛑 Above are approximate targets based on fibs and major trend-lines etc. I always recommend looking at multiple charts when making a big investment, thank you! Always have a stop loss ✋🛑💲 set Any thoughts 💭💡, questions 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️❓, good 👍, bad👎, happy 😄 or sad 😥, in the comments always welcome. Thank you for reading and trade safely!!!! Jazerbay ☯
Short
by jazerbay
19
Not Selling, not Shorting - Bout time we had a bit of DownsideLooking pretty weak right here...Just eyeballing, will have to see how it plays out, but we are due for a dip, maybe some good buys on the way. I would imaging more than a few folks are starting to remember how last February worked out. I don't picture too much happening, but I think I'm gonna have to be watching several things like a hawk for the next month and a half. Gold, Oil, S&P, Bitcoin and of course the VIX... I wouldn't be surprised if at the very least we tested the low 3800s on the S&P500 in the next two to three weeks, possibly even 3750-ish. I am now looking for potential catalysts. For the record I don't think last year repeats unless something really bad happens...say something on the level of a Deutsche Bank going under (just using as an example - Deutsche Bank catastrophically failing is such a meme and for so many years, I doubt it).
SP:SPX
by JJMa
1
BTCUSDT Potential direction (Estimate next peak in April)My very novice TA. I suspected that 42k (8th Jan) was the peak of that cycle & it would dip from there probably to 28-25k over a week or so, say by the 18th feb. That process held off for about a week but is now in full swing. I estimate that it could go to as low as 22 & then pop back up, & follow more or less within the range (Yellow plot), more or less a in fluctuating sideways direction, then gradually start coming back up again. With the next peak sometime in April, probably not drastically higher, but probably about 47k to 52k. Just an idea, not financial advice. I am short-term bearish as the December wave was far too frothy & clearly broke at 42k, and now that wave is still coming down, getting ready for the next set. If I look at the fib circles & sine waves, or atleast just visually with my very basic understanding, & then look at the MACD, there is still some more room to come down before it plateaus out. Then as I say I think it will go sideways, then gradually back up. There's so much institutional investment money pumped into it, but in every cycle, there's a dip, as sell orders get triggered & people cash out, before buy orders get triggered & people buy more. So that's my very novice TA.. Definitely not financial advice, I'm a construction worker, not a financial analyst lol. Just an idea & trying to see if i can map out the potential direction moving forward. Give it a like or some constructive criticism if you like. Look after yourselves, & buy the dip.. Peace :)
Long
by Destyd77
1
S&P500 - Better Buy Prices on Deck possibly this weekMinor dip, and what appears to be a lower high unless prices move higher in the last couple of hours. Minor bearish divergence detected on the RSI. Ultimately I am long, got the shorting out of my system at the beginning of the year. Just looking to invest at better prices. We are overdue for a little bit of pain as well as illustrated by my previous idea which did play out. Also price keeps hovering near the 3666 number, I'm sure it's pure coincidence, it always is... Would be aiming for a test of 3612 if I were shorting from today's highs. 4 More days after today and then I would hope to not be staring at charts the next week, save for possibly cryptocurrencies and to have all available cash invested for this year.
SP:SPXLong
by JJMa
2
MATIC: Great Time To Buy The DipMy Crypto Trading Comrades, Appreciate you taking the time to view my analysis which I hope you may find beneficial. Please be sure to “LIKE” if you indeed find my analysis useful and/or find my analysis intriguing. Cheers & Happy Trading! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ANALYSIS: Expecting MATIC to drop below the 786 fib, as 9EMA is looking to cross the downside, where MATIC could find support @ the S1 ($0.01751). However, w/ the 20 and the 50 EMA also dipping to the downside, it is possible both can cross the 200EMA in which MATIC can dip to the 015 fib level.
M
by AB_Trading-Intelligence
3