Sidelines — Trading Ideas on TradingView

$ABNB going up on hopium; Fair value $100-120 - NASDAQ:ABNB gave hopium of investing in different business for next 5 years which could grow into a billion dollars. - Investors should not fall for hopium. Execution remains a challenge and money spent on that bet remains unseen and just a wild dream as of now. - EPS growth of NASDAQ:ABNB is almost flat for next 2-3 years. - Hotel industry has caught up to $ABNB. There's no USP ( unique selling point ) of $ABNB. Verbo offers exactly the same thing which NASDAQ:ABNB does. - Tons of listing have cannibalized net revenue for the host. - Short term rentals have caused havoc in the rental market for the long term tenants. Fundamentals wise: Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 EPS | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.99 | 7.37 EPS growth % | 9.89% | 15.65% | 18.68% | 22.94% For a company growing eps mid to high teens deserves a fair forward multiple of 20. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price w p/e 20 | $87 | $101 | $119 | $147 However, many investors would be okay paying 25 times for a company with strong brand so. Stock price w p/e 25 | $109 | $126 | $149 | $184 Bull Case: Stock price w p/e 30 | $131 | $151 | $179 | $221 Recommendation: Staying on the sidelines and waiting for the stock to disappoint and buy it close to instrinsic value represented by fundamentals

Which Path Will Prevail?Time to view all possibilities after a weak Friday of movement. I have developed an indicator that identifies Wave 3s, wave 3 of wave 3, and the end of corrective waves (2, 4, or B) which can be found here: . Some wave 1 and wave A ends will get a signal, but it takes other analysis to identify those points. Applying that script to the chart at the intervals below, may aid in identifying where the market is. The indicator on the chart is the second row of indicators called EW_3_v2. Here is the 10 Minute Chart: I have placed all of the locations of data from the macro waves which I will walk through. This chart shows Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 at 1050 (eastern time) on August 2. Next signal aligns with end of Minor wave 4. Next signal aligns with the probable Minuette wave 3 ending in Minute wave 1 inside of Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5 at 1500 on August 4. Next signal was likely Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 at 1550 on August 8. Next signal was Intermediate wave 2 at 1000 on August 10. The next and final apparent signal was a wave 3 ending at 1350 on August 10. This signal could be Minuette wave 3 inside Minor wave 1 possibly inside Intermediate wave 3. Next is the 15 minute chart: The first indicator of Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 from August 2 remains. Next signal is Minor wave 4 ending and the currently marked end of Intermediate wave 2 on August 10. Next is the 30 minute chart: which identifies the same points of interest and Minor wave 3 endpoint is indicate instead of the Minor wave 4 ending. I use this macro to micro to macro scale of chart viewing to confirm or identify possible points of interest. The main hourly scale only identified the end of Minor wave 3 which was the original job of my wave 3 indicator. Based on this, the main chart above outlines the 3 paths. The left chart is if we are in Intermediate wave 3. Ultimately the market should move down this week if this is the current location. The middle chart assumes we are earlier on than expected and that the low from August 11 was only the end of Intermediate wave 1. This would mean the market should move up for most of this coming week. The retracement percentiles have not changed and on the chart. Possible top target would be in the 4510-4525 area. The main issue with this theory is based on the location of signals from the 10, 15, and 30 minute charts. They do not align well if all of last week’s movement was only Minor wave 5. This is my skepticism with this chart. The right chart assumes we are in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2. This would see the market move up early in the week but top before midday Wednesday. While this path is quite plausible and the prior target zone holds, the wave 3 indicator analysis would have placed wave 3s in the wrong location which is my skepticism for this theory. Basically, we have three potential paths this week. I will monitor to see which one plays out. I am back in sideline mode in the short-term until the path forward is clearer. Longer-term puts likely remain safe as that is the overall market direction.

US Oil 4Hr Analysis, Week 4 2022, Cad interest Rate Day We are quite Bullish The daily candle yesterday closed in a fashion that validated longs to 90$ a barrel. We are currently testing 4hr Resistance It is most wise to wait for the Daily candle to close or until asian session latter for any sells. For buys, Fomc could be a catalyst for us to move out of 87$ and 88$ and continue on towards 90$ a barrel

Shine bright like a diamond in the sky! oh oh oh oh Shine bright like a diamond Shine bright like a diamond Find light in the beautiful sea(all time high right now), I choose to be happy (full in euphoria ) You and I, you and I, we're like diamonds in the sky oh oh oh oh oh You're a shooting star I see, a vision of ecstasy!!!!!!!! When you hold me, I'm alive oh oh oh oh We're like diamonds in the skyyyyyyyy...... So many patterns taking place right now in multiple time frames in the index but this one seems the most scary!!! Be careful and wait for strong trend confirmation... Rihana FTW!!!!!!

S&P 500 Bullish Pennant Incoming???Do they play around with bears? is this a massive bull pennant ready to explode to 4k? Check all the companies that announce earnings this week for hints!!! We already have multiple formations like Inverse H&S, Bull Flag, Cup & Handle and now we have this one as well... The stakes are high and although i am not a US citizen i have a feeling that Trump is going to get re-elected. Take that in consideration together with the fact that FED stated it will keep interest rates to 0% until 2023 we may be in front of the biggest bubble in financial history!!! Big up till 2022 and then Michelle Obama will come as a savior to unite the United States of America.Stay on the sidelines is the best strategy for me at the moment, wait for strong confirmation and enjoy the ride :)

[Currencies] Markets shifting phase, no money to be made The second half of July was fun. But now it is over. It is either time for some vacations, or some research & self-improvement. Gold & Silver, Bitcoin, and major governement fiat currencies - usd pairs - are taking a break from their trends (if we can call this a trend for BTC). I do not think there will be anything interesting in the coming days or weeks... For my part other that those currencies I also look at some crosses regularly (with jpy I even only do crosses I don't even trade usdjpy), as well as a few commodities (Oil NatGas Copper). Who knows, there might be something? Commodities Crosses "Exotics" and crosses Nothing too crazy. I don't want to go completely analyse every 20 non usd currency pair I can think of. And I'm thinking "is this good or not can't tell", if you have to ask this question then it is not good enough. EURJPY could be interesting, better keep an eye on it this week. Going to look at some old charts and do some self improvement.

Need to exit for now just to be safe... We entered the market as Bitcoin has shown good strength based on our trigger. However, at the moment, you could say that Bitcoin's momentum is stalling... The stop loss line is our defense in case the price goes against our way. However, I'm not saying Bitcoin is losing strength. I'm just saying its stalling... Either way, it's better to stay on the sidelines... if your not sure, it's better to stay out... You may be wondering why I have upward slanting line for stop loss. Well, I'm a big believer of controlling your risk:reward ratio rather than trying to increase your prediction accuracy. In my opinion, you'll have better control on how you manage your trade, rather than searching for a system that's similar to a crystal ball. Hence, that upward slanting line is sort of a "time limit' for my trades... If the price doesnt behave as expected, then it's better to stay on the sidelines... Hit me for a private chat if you wanna know I trade or you want an easier trading strategy...