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Spike-trading

Never bet against Elon?Never betting against the man is a pretty solid strategy. Nevertheless, considering I am long shares I want to take this textbook trade to hedge (again). This morning on my spike alerts list was $NASDAQ:TSLA. With an opening high of 354.56 which swiftly closed back inside the range a 30m spike was created. The ATR Clearance fits my criteria to consider this a valid spike to play. Add to this the context of the Daily. NASDAQ:TSLA is riding the 50% of the big move down on the Daily at 351.39. The spike combined with the Resistance makes this a "have to take" trade. Playing this with July 300P Options.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by norok
14
Did Redditors make any money on TSLA?I thought I read that NASDAQ:TSLA was going down and Elon was going broke. Earnings were going to assure it. Looks like it came and went and instead went bullish. Oh well, you can't rely on narratives: Only Technicals! The 218.65 Volume Profile Level has been holding TSLA up for weeks now. Great long by the way. And as long as it holds the next major VP level would be 183.63. Now though TSLA is caught in a range and this does seem to be the top. If haters had just waited for a signal instead of trading on emotions they could have played this short from a higher price and with Earnings IV crush already over.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by norok
7
"This is fine" on Nasdaq?The general sentiment coming into this week is that the bear trend is over and "things are fine." Maybe. This morning there was a 30m opening spike on NASDAQ:QQQ I cannot ignore. It is happening right at the big Daily 50% Retracement of the leg down: The level is even more prominent on Nasdaq futures and one can add the Volume Profile Point of Control to said level. CME_MINI:NQ1! Playing this with June Puts on QQQ but going to use today's high as a tight stop. We'll see what "Sell in May" brings...
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by norok
1
Whirlpool of DividendsAm I crazy to be looking at a manufacturing play right now considering the tariff trade wars going on? The stock right now has a forward dividend yield of 8.65% at the current price with a technical setup. There are fundamentals around tariffs to consider but that could only be the "reason" the price has come to a great buy. I set an alert almost a year ago in April 2024 based on a follower of mine liking the stock NYSE:WHR as a dividend play. I suggested that we set the buy alert for the Volume Profile level going back 20 years ago which also incorporated the 2020 COVID low: That alert his this week and I did some fundamental research on the company. Back in 2018 Whirlpool took a big hit with the first round of China focused tariffs. However, the company responded by focusing on more U.S.-based manufacturing. Its competitors, LG and Samsung have more tariff exposure. Material costs could still present a challenge. From a technical standpoint I see a major low with volume support that could hold up price.
NYSE:WHRLong
by norok
1
Bullish Spike on DG: Consumer Staples playI think that people might hate this pick... but I love "hated" tickers. NYSE:DG came up on my 30m Spike scan this morning amid a sea of red and tanking "risk on" stocks. This indicates some interesting opening price action this morning as a "hey, come look at me!" This action is happening in the context of a clear rotation into "safe" stocks like Consumer Staples and Utilities; DG is renowned for being a Consumer Staple. The logic is that people will still need to buy basic good, no matter what, and Dollar General's brand is to sell these at low costs to Consumers. Dollar General experienced a meteoric rise (and fall) due to what analysts attribute as a rapid OVER-expansion. Anecdotally, I recall a newly built location in rural Georgia that I pass by frequently on trips to see family that opened, closed, and in just recent weeks was renovated and re-opened. Either way, I like a stock that everyone thinks is dead that more importantly has come to a decadal low, matching with Volume Profile support, that was also the technical Support that launched the prior rally. Furthermore, on the Daily there is a clear path for a good Ichimoku Breakout that taking the stock now lets one get the jump on. A full Daily breakout would reverse the bear trend since last April.
NYSE:DGLong
by norok
9
Do you like chocolate? (HSY)NYSE:HSY Came up on my alerts last Friday (see below) as a Spike of Volume Profile Support. Price rallied from the Spike almost immediately but has since returned for an opportunity to take this trade. Since the Volume Profile POC is based on the Weekly trend from COVID low > All Time High this trade can be setup as a long term position with the Risk management laid out in the chart above. I would call this an attempt to catch a bottom in the "Valley of Risk" that the stock is currently within. The above chart is the 30 minute timeframe Spike that triggered the alert. This trade never came back before reaching the 3:1 target. However, we can consider the 2 hour timeframe for more tactical risk management as it is still valid: Managing risk on the 2 Hour timeframe gives a tight stop just below the Spike low. At which point we can derisk.
NYSE:HSYLong
by norok
Nucor (NUE) Materials Play for 2025NYSE:NUE announced earnings this morning. The subsequent opening price action triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar which brought the stock to my attention. This spike was generated by the Earnings opening price action. Earnings beat estimates and the stock rallied. However, where the spike breached... and more importantly held... was what interests me. Price Action Support The combined supports of: The 50% Retracement of the trend from January 3rd to January 21st The Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) for the Trend ...being tested and held are a great sign that price has found support and is respecting it. To further my analysis of the stock for a long term hold I graduated up to the Weekly Timeframe. The same two confluences of 50% Retracement and Volume Profile POC have come together and prior to today's Earnings they held as Support in late December 2024. Finally, we can move up to the Monthly and see the Ichimoku Cloud holding as a potential Ichimoku Cloud pullback. Fundamentals NYSE:NUE is a company that has been around a long time. It is a Materials Company (Steel, mostly) with a long price history to look back on. Doing so I noticed that the company's price trends were highly cyclical covering many years. The current pullback that price is within represents a close to -40% discount from the All Time High. The stock's performance will likely depend on economic demand in the coming years. Trade Management For this Entry to be valid it should first hold today's Earning Spike low and continue to rally. In the longer term price should not violate the low set during the month of January 2025. Holding both would be great and be exactly as I plan this trade. Violating either or both means the Support is wrong. Market Thoughts As a final thought; a lot of investors ask me questions about whatever is "HOT" and in the news. Clearly, this week (and for many weeks) that has been everything tech. You will not find me very interested in chasing these stocks. Not until they have had huge (-50%, -60%) drawdowns. These plays (like Nucor) are the ones I try to find to start my year and then hold them for long to come. Trade wisely.
NYSE:NUELong
by norok
Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why! Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!" This setup has going for it: At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4) At the top of a Gap Level At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below) With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834. Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is: Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
NYSE:LLYLong
by norok
Look for Spikes to get Long EthereumLate to the crypto bull run? Maybe not! Technical Analysis is not about predicting the future... it is about identifying opportunity. COINBASE:ETHUSD has been bullish for a few weeks and I've been patiently waiting for it to trigger a setup. I got what I was looking for on Tuesday of this week and it made for a great teachable moment combining my Spike Indicator, 50% Retracements, and Volume Profile. Another "MUST TAKE" opportunity that traders should study and look for...
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by norok
1
Bitcoin FAILED 100k!INDEX:BTCUSD FAILED a breach of 100k! Now it has setup my Spike indicator perfectly for a 3:1 Reward/Risk back down to retest the prior ATH at 73811. I could not have asked for a better setup. I refused to short this rally... knowing better than to get in the path... waiting for a signal. That has now happened. This has been the most interesting Daily candle of the whole rally. Over the past 24 hours the social media sentiment has gone from exuberance at the break of 100k to now slamming back down inside the prior pre-100k high. THEN... right before the bar close a volatile selloff. How, why, does not matter. A chart is a record of human emotion expressed in price. The party could be over.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
11
XYL Multiple Levels of SupportAlso on my morning Spike scanner came up NYSE:XYL (see below for the spike on the 30m timeframe). I especially like this Support level as it has many matching components: 50% Retracement Level. My bread and butter. The most important Retracement Level. Volume Profile node. Not the POC but a key level of price and volume here. Ichimoku Cloud. A long flat SKB with the Lagging Span far away from crossing into bearish territory. This is the Spike that triggered me to look and find price acting such a way at Support: The take profit target is easy to find; the POC on the Volume Profile for the bullish trend. The stop is between the current VP node and the next significant one (which could be next support but no reason to take that much risk).
NYSE:XYLLong
by norok
Bitcoin Spike at ResistanceBitcoin HELD the Last Support noted in my Idea last week. That save INDEX:BTCUSD from going bearish. However, it is not out of the woods yet. Today Bitcoin spiked the 50% Retracement Resistance at 64652. This sets up a short trade where if the high of the spike is broken "you know you're wrong" for a low risk/high reward trade. If the Spike high is broken... Bitcoin may trend bullish and even resume the full bull trend onward to 100k+. However, if this spike is a reversal and price retests the lows of last week, this will trigger a full trend flip to bearish via the Ichimoku cloud.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
1
ADBE at Volume Profile NodeThis morning NASDAQ:ADBE triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar. I double checked this signal against Volume Profile. On the weekly there is a major Volume Profile node at 480 considering the bullish trend from September 2022 to January 2024. The spike this morning touches this level and have moved off with a significant Spike: The Spike allows me to start a trade on the 30 minute timeframe with low risk and a 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio with the intent to play the higher timeframe Weekly move as a major pullback. If we increase the time considered the Volume Profile node becomes even more significant as the POC (Point of Control) for the price action going all the way back to COVID low.
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by norok
3
Trading Bitcoin FuturesTo keep actively trading Bitcoin short... I am watching and trading Bitcoin futures. This morning there was a 30 minute timeframe Spike right at the level I have been watching since after the ETF launch: the 50% Retracement of the "Sell the News" phase. I am looking for price to hold this level as Resistance and retrace at least back to 41000 in short time. Higher Timeframe Update: The area of Resistance that is the 50% of the ETF Selloff is where Bitcoin has retraced to over the last week. On Monday 1/22 I was able to hedge my Puts by selling shorter dated Puts against them to hedge and offset theta. I closed them yesterday. Broadly, Bitcoin is still in this battle zone from the ATH to the November 22 low. Mainstream Adoption Back in the old days... Bitcoin was best traded spot on margin on exchanges. Now, all the reputable exchanges are KYC and the new ones popping up would never fool an old timer like me into putting money there. I have even received spam here on Tradingview from exchange reps trying to get me to do affiliate programs. No, never. Bitcoin is now a heavily traded asset with countless derivatives. It is truly mainstream.
CME:MBT1!Short
by norok
2
JP Morgan Short off All Time HighWith the stock market making new All Time Highs fresh new opportunities for contrarian trades are going to be somewhat scarce. Thanks to a viewer on my Livestream (every Friday on Tradingview: 4pm EST UTC-5) I was made aware of a short setup I like on NYSE:JPM Context This price action is happening at a test of the past ATH set in November 2021. Last week the Earnings announcement pushed price intraday above the high only to close well below the key Resistance level of the former ATH. This is a false breakout signal or as I like to identify them as: Spikes. The Spike The Spike occurred on Earnings. I have found that false breakouts on earnings have a very high probability of signaling a reversal. The significance value (135% ATR) is within my rules. It took until the following week for price to actually pull back to the proper entry point of the Spike bar's Tenkan Sen value at 172.48. What these factors mean I go over during my Livestream. The Trade How I am expressing this trade is in a combination of short shares and Puts. In choosing my Put strike I look for where I see price going as a target via technical analysis. In this case it would be the 50% Retracement of the bullish trend around 155. For expiration I consider the prior bullish trend that got price up to the high I am reading as a false breakout to enter. I project the time that trend took, add an additional month as a time buffer, and then typically take that expiration. Unfortunately, an option expiring in March as this technique would suggest puts the expiration too close and just before earnings. A note about options and earnings: In the 4 weeks prior to earnings very typically a stock's options will experience a rise in IV (implied volatility). This rise in IV and the Greek Vega can increase the prices of all options often offsetting the value lost to theta time decay. This is a very advantageous condition if a trader is long single options. Therefor, I chose the April expirations to give myself the potential for the IV push. I will likely close the options the day before earnings regardless of where price may be. Options are a coin flip.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1
Bearish Bitcoin Spike on the Weekly"Buy the rumor/Sell the news" is a phenomenon as old as markets. It was like betting on the sun not to rise tomorrow. I have talked to many Bitcoin enthusiasts who are perplexed by this occurrence. They were assured by various Twitter personalities that this week would see the largest inflow of capital into Bitcoin ever, price would rise, and if they just bought prior to the news they would make tremendous gains. This was never going to happen. With the close of the prior eventful week's candle we now have a confirmed price Spike on the INDEX:BTCUSD Weekly. On Wednesday amid the "buy the news" nonsense price briefly surpassed a major high set in March 2022 only to retrace the entire ETF launch and then return to the bottom of the prior range. This is a very bearish signal from which price does not typically recover. The first level of Support will be found around 32.2k; the 50% Retracement of the rally since November 2022. The most ironic, and most likely outcome, is that price retraces the entire ETF hype rally. Breaking the ETF news high would of course resume the trend upward but at this point despite the memes circulating Twitter trying to reassure all to HODL that is a very low probability with the price action we have seen. I remain short Bitcoin via pre-existing ETFs such as AMEX:BITI and will be adding to them during the coming week. Wall Street is not coming to save your longs...
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
66