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Spxanalysis

US Market Technicals Ahead (19 Jan – 22 Jan 2021)The holiday shortened week will see Joe Biden inauguration as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday with investors waiting to see how his plans for stimulus relief and tackling the pandemic will roll out. Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing as the U.S.’s first female Treasury secretary is set to take place on Tuesday. The fourth-quarter earnings season continues next week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM), Netflix ($NFLX), Intel ($INTC) and P&G ($PG) reporting their results. The European Central Bank is to hold its latest policy meeting against a background of renewed lockdowns to contain the pandemic. Meanwhile, a raft of PMI data from the U.S, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK on Friday will lay bare the state of the global economy at the start of 2021. Fourth quarter and full year GDP data out of China on Monday could show that it was the only major world economy to have expanded in 2020. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) underwent a correction of -1.98% (-76 points), with majority of the losses experienced on Friday after market missing the estimates of US. Retail Sales for December (-0.7% MoM vs 0%. MoM). With the above, the highlighted Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern last week is currently in play. At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 2 months trend channel, with 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021. 1. Biden bump? Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th U.S. president Wednesday, taking over the leadership of a country ravaged by the pandemic and facing deep socio-economic divisions. Biden has announced a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which includes $1,400 stimulus checks but this may prove a double-edged sword for investors, bolstering optimism over the outlook for the economic recovery while raising worries over how the U.S. will afford it. The S&P 500 has risen in the first 100 calendar days of eight out of the last 10 presidential terms, but Biden’s first 100 days may be more fraught than those of his predecessors. He needs to stimulate the economy quickly, but the narrow Democrat majority in Congress means the size and timing of the package remain uncertain. 2. Earnings Investors will be anxious to see whether upcoming earnings results validate expectations for a strong rebound in 2021. U.S. stocks are at record highs, boosted largely by optimism that the vaccine rollout will allow for a recovery, while hopes of more fiscal stimulus have also underpinned gains. Earnings reports for the last quarter of 2020 will get underway in earnest with the release of results from companies including Bank of America ($BAC), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Netflix ($NFLX), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), Procter & Gamble ($PG), United Airlines ($UAL), Intel ($INTC) and IBM ($IBM). Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 9.5% in the final quarter of 2020 from a year ago, but are expected to rebound in 2021, with a gain of 16.4% projected for the first quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. 3. ECB meeting The ECB is to hold its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday. Policymakers announced extra stimulus in December, but the economic outlook has been clouded again by the discovery of new Covid-19 strains and the relatively slow pace of the vaccination rollout. Cause for concern? Not so, comments from Christine Lagarde suggest. The ECB chief predicts recovery as COVID subsides, seeing the glass as half-full, not half-empty. Germany’s economy too is cause for optimism, shrinking by a less-than-expected 5% in 2020. But prolonged lockdowns will hurt. Against this backdrop, markets will want the ECB to signal its commitment to using the full firepower of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.24 trillion) emergency bond-buying scheme – something on which policymakers appear to be split.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2
SPX"s Japanese candlestick trading signals since inception 1957Hey Traders , what's up. I know that there is allot of data, i hate that as every one else does. But, if you want to keep it simple just study, analyze and write down the Red & Green boxes they should sum up most of the study. I have included all the data here . So feel free to redo, redistribute, reuse or shar it here or outside of tradingview with anyone even with out mentioning the source. from me to humanity whom are trading SPX : - ). Moreover, If anything that this data is telling us in a very short English terms "Do not chase tops on monthly candles !!! " . Also, some monthly candles could be treated as bullish data suggesting that !!! what's up with that!!! no Golden rule for these candles. wish you all the best. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bearish Spinning Top Black 21 times : since Dec, 1961 Just looks like Evening star !!! Reds i'll treat them like bearish signals just for the record : - ) -------------------------------------------------------- profit Opportunity cost zero 300% 54 zero 6.40 zero zero 340 % 17.33 zero zero 17.18 zero 7.95 zero 34.49 % zero 19.98% 22.11 zero 10.31 zero zero 5.56% 3.61 zero 37.19 zero zero 8.21 9.48 zero zero 4.92 8.70 zero zero 28.87% 28.23 zero *********************************************************************************** Long Upper Shadow 15 times: since Nov, 1950 --------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 31.80 zero zero 16.10 zero 6.28 zero 4.8 Zero 23.55 Zero 145 Zero 69.85 21.39 zero 28.49 zero 2.97 zero zero 22.31 zero 9.51 3.70 zero 2.30 zero zero 11.62 *********************************************************************** Hanging Man 8 times: Since Nov, 1951 ------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 18.62 Zero 2.11 Zero Zero 3.83 Zero 6.29 Zero 12.98 Zero 17.11 Zero 49.01 Zero 16.22 ********************************************************************** Engulfing 15 signals: since Feb, 1952 -------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost Zero 23.33% Zero 17.77 13.47 zero 11.46 zero zero 13.36 4 zero zero 57 zero 27.77 zero 81.35 Zero 124.44 6.06 zero 20.76 Zero Zero 12.67 5.95 Zero Zero 14.01 ************************************************************* Marubozu Black 5 times ! : Since Apr, 1952 -------------------------------------------- profite opportunity cost zero 23.31 zero 62.06 8.11 zero zero 112 zero 15% ************************************************************ Tweezer Top 13 times : since April, 1956 ---------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity cost 12.36 zero 4.25 zero 3.81 zero zero 60.73 zero 34.73 zero 7.47 4.16 zero zero 14.45 zero 47.07 9.41 zero 15.14 zero 7.04 zero 12.38 zero ************************************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************************** 2/Bullish. Long Lower Shadow-Bull 27 times : since Jul,1950 ----------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 37.20 8.53 8.28 49.59 3.38 22.42 20.42 zero 46.23 273.66 37.93 60.27 zero 8.84 40.87 zero zero 36.73 zero 33.39 3.72 19.43 3.83 6.62 6.29 14.01 4.61 25.32 18.08 2.53 8.62 44.87 ****************************************************** Marubozu White -Bull 26 times : Since Sep, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- profit cost zero 4.60 21.45 12.15 71.55 36.09 2.3 4.15 46.07 19.25 5.86 9.08 4.01 21.27 3.85 zero 14.17 11.21 3.25 11.88 5.79 8.35 3.90 2.36 zero 4.92 3.74 2.45 3.36 ************************************************************ Spinning Top White19 times : since March 1950 Just looks like Evening star !!! Whites i'll treat them like Bullish signals just for the record : - ) --------------------------------------------------------- Profit opportunity cost zero 19% 14.20 zero 86.64 zero 29.22 zero 44.90 zero zero 31.81 8.06 zero zero 9.45 6.35 zero 17.18 zero 24.60 zero zero 4.01 10.78 zero zero 3.35 12.22 zero zero 4.94 zero 4.94 47.61 zero 13.65 zero -------------------------------------------- Summery: 63% bullish *********************************************************************************** Rising Window 21 times: Since May, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 2.51 8.04 11.22 6.11 1.85 zero 3.90 zero 8.29 12.83 13.72 26.85 3.85 3.85 zero 9.03 6.25 54.19 3.62 zero 4.28 zero 3.50 zero 11.18 ******************************************* Long Lower Shadow-Bull is actually a Doji 52-53-54- Or inverted hammer 63-86-88!!!! I might be wrong or tradingview is wrong or something else is wrong!!! **************************************************
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2
GAPS, GAPs, GAPsMr Market likes to fill open gaps. It will do so whenever possible. We have had very good examples of these in recent days. IMO, we are still on a bullish footing at this stage. I have highlighted the green box. You will note today, prices gapped below the green box and finished back within. That green box is the true range of the last (significant) bull bar. Breaks up or down out of the green box usually will signal a continued move in the direction of the break. There is potential downside here as there are lower gaps we have not closed around the support level. If we continue to hold the green square, bias would be for continued upside. My trading stories: dailyxing.medium.com
SP:SPXLong
by mrstockyetoro
SPX relation with Stocks above 200D MA,70 selling & 24 Buying I did not like this a bit. I do not no way but it seems it was quite hard to analyse !. Even though, it is the 200d MA it gave tops that are not significant at all that's maybe one of its draw back. high opportunity cost. Or maybe it is not my day of analyzing :-). i did my best LOL. further examination of this indicator is needed. Also, do not forget that i might missed allot of tops & bottoms :-) wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading