Spydercrusher — Trading Ideas on TradingView

SPY more down?Over the weekend it looks like the virus has gotten worse within the US. The may lead to more downside this week. We are currently in a correction zone but below $271.2 we are in recession territory or 20% down from our previous highs. I think that $286 and $281 will be hard resistance to break through to go lower. I am going to long puts on SPY but also hedging this week until we break $286 and $281.

Crude Oil - Quarterly Decline 3rd Worst in 24 Yrs, Time For Low?This chart shows USOIL, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures, on a monthly timeframe. Plotted on the chart are our SCMR Dynamic Levels™, which dynamically plot support / resistance zones and are accurate at finding targets. This indicator is available in the TradingView App store under Analysis Suite - SCMR Trends. The BIG QUESTION: Is crude bottoming here? Let's go over what this chart illustrates, and you tell me. -----> The lower pane shows the rolling quarterly returns for Crude, and I colored the plot red whenever the quarterly decline is less than -25%. This current decline, at -39% this quarter, is the third worst in the past 25 years, only eclipsed by 2008 and 1991. -----> Overlaid on the chart itself are red, vertical markers indicating where in a prior quarter the return was less than our -25% threshold, but then in next (current) quarter crossed up through -25%, in other words, *the mean reversion back up has started*. We are still waiting for this event to take place. -----> Dynamic Level Support at $58. Through this level by $3, but may prove to stabilize near it. \\\Conclusion:/// Based on the above, you can surmise that the low is *extremely likely within 1-2 months*. Some may balk at an analysis wherein the time to fruition is +/- 1-2 months, but that is the nature of a 24 yr chart :) . Additional momentum can certainly take us lower than the current price. The 2008 decline took FIVE months before mean reversion started, and we are only on month two currently (which is how I've derived the 1-2 month timeframe for mean reversion to begin -- assuming this is as bad as 2008 for the oil markets). Also note it was the most extreme, and other declines began mean reversion after a scant one month after a 25% quarterly decline. This is a guide not a call, if you catch the subtlety there. After we start the mean-reversion (the red vertical bars overlaid on price) is where I would come out and say a low is in place -- this is still front running that event.

SCMR Analysis Suite Product REVIEW - live in the TV App Store!It's been a while since I've been able to publish any trade setups or ideas, but let me assure you... it was worth the wait and you wont be disappointed. This chart illustrates the newest system to grace the TV app store, "Analysis Suite - SCMR Trends" and how I used it to dominate this H&S trade setup... and basically every other trade I've taken in the last two months. It will be a staple of all my published charts going forward so it only makes sense that I give you a run down on what you'll be looking at. It is unquestionably the best thing to happen to my trading since candlestick charts. The H&S trade setup was pretty obvious, although I don't know that many took it (if at all) with the same confidence that I did. You can see how I determined my target levels- pretty standard: Distance from peak of the "head" to the "neckline" , drawn as measured moves from the peak of the right shoulder (target #1) and then from the neckline itself (target #2). The "SCMR Dynamic Levels" plot clearly identifiable support and resistance areas. By definition they are dynamic, meaning they *can* move, be pushed or be erased by follow up price action. However, the algorithm which plots them does so based on known market supply and demand levels, eliminating the guess work regarding strength and location. Monthly levels are stronger than weekly; weekly stronger than daily, etc. In this chart, the Dark Red circles are the monthly dynamic resistance and the smaller Pink/Red circles are the weekly. When price broke the neckline that was my signal to get short. But where to do it now that it's already happened? I never chase price, so I waited for my entry, which as you can see came when we pulled right back into the weekly resistance level (about $394), where I entered short with zero hesitation. Price tanked and I was making BTC hand over fist. My target #1 was tapped, but not filled then price started ranging. Is it reversing? Will it continue going up?? The candles were all over the place and largely gray (signalling indecision) but all guess work gone when the new Dynamic level had printed resistance and we broke out of the range to the down side. With the "SCMR Trends", The candles change color indicating trend, trend strength and helps to alert you to trend change so you don't miss the trade entry or exit. The "SCMR B2B" helps to qualify or disqualify trend changes and reversals so you're less likely to get left holding the bag on a fake-out. The last Blue reversal candle is where this trade ended. I had already achieved my exit level but waited for confirmation in the form of the reversal candle to close my short for target #2, giving me maximum profits and not leaving anything on the table by closing early. Full disclosure: I am *not* being paid or compensated for promoting this product or this system. I was given a demo copy for review prior to official release and all of the above analysis was based on that less refined "beta" version. The SCMR suite comes highly recommended and is an extremely high quality product that I encourage you to explore. The value is self evident. If you have questions send a PM to @SPYdyerCrusher or click on the "Indicators" button at the top of your chart and find "SCMR Analysis" under Marketplace Add-Ons. ~Cheers!

Market Themes: NO chance of rate hike, NO Deflation - USD This is a year-to-date chart scaled on a percentage basis that outlines the relationship between the US Dollar, 20 yr+ Treasuries, Gold, Energy (think oil, gas etc), the Euro, and the US Real Esate Index. These represent the different investment classes in the market (rate-sensitive instruments, earnings sensitive instruments, and hard assets). As you can see there is a huge disparity with US Dollar, Treasuries, and Real Estate at highs while Gold, Energy, and the Euro is quite low. What this implies thematically is clear: The market currently believes there is NO chance of a rate hike (see treasuries, real estate), that there is NO chance of deflation (see EURO and Dollar relationship, and Gold / Energy underperformance) and, although it is not shown since the chart was getting cluttered, there is no indication that corporate earnings are at risk. Follow this chart because these themes are where you should be focusing your asset allocation.