$sqqq : fade the political turmoil32.83$ for your buck, 18 cent stop.
Liking how the PA is holding.
In from 34.09.
SQQQ
Apple: Set to Get Blasted From USA-China EscalationContrary to what has be touted in the last 10 years, not every dip is a buying opportunity. Do NOT fall for this concept, especially in today's geopolitically tense landscape.
--
With the latest round of China-USA escalation where now the "talk and bluster" has inevitably turned from a trade-spat into an utmost full-blown trade war, Apple will get decimated over the next 4 months with its stock plummeting to December 2018 lows at the least. Rumors have now surfaced today (Sunday) that China will further escalate the trade war even further since Trump's retaliation from Friday's Tweets.
Apple is not the only tech company that will get blasted - Micron and Nvidea are two other giants that will get hit tremendously.
In-between the downtrend there will be some bounces from perhaps fake news of trade neutrality, rate cuts from ECB/Fed and so forth. However, I certainly do not advise anyone to be "long" in any tech player.
Play smart. Play safe. For the next while SQQQ is a strong option to short the tech sector during this trade war.
- zSplit
$SQQQ Finally breaking outBeen averaged down to about $31.35 and waiting for this breakout. NASDAQ finally too over extended looking for 5% -15% return.
$SQQQLooks like $SQQQ maybe on an upward trend. Has already bounced off support and macd is trending up. Look for continuation up near $47 (+22%).
QQQ poised for Oct-Dec repeat?In looking at the lines I've drawn on QQQ the last year or so, what stands out is that when QQQ breaks decisively below uptrend support lines, it has always been eventually fatal. (I feel like a moron for not believing my own TA on May 3 and 6 when I should have opened a massive short with tight stops. I agonized over the charts on those days, but the bulls had really worn me down emotionally and I didn't take the trade.) If it regains uptrend support rather quickly after fakeout below, it can continue uptrend for some time, but eventually loses it again.
I was 100% wrong about the strength and length of the post-December rally. That bounce went way higher than I expected. So take what I say with a grain of salt.
However, it really does feel like we're at the end of the cycle because of so many different things: we've got weak international economies and trade wars to goose us to the downside on top of our cyclical and monetary expected downturn. If you look at my past index ideas (QQQ, SPY, etc), you can see some more of that indepth research on the macro fundamentals subject.
Back to the chart, I see some very strong repeating patterns from the Oct-Dec correction. If you allow your eyes to simply wander over the peaks and valleys (including some lines that are obvious but which I've not drawn as they would make the chart too busy; ETA: ok, I relented and added purple downtrend to Oct-Dec), you can quickly start to see various likely scenarios emerge.
I'm looking for a bounce off my red line today and hopefully bouncing to $180 for gap fill at purple by Monday or Tuesday. I hope to add big size to my SQQQ position at purple and get a strong rejection off of purple for the next phase of down.
If QQQ breaks above downtrend purple, it is reason to closely watch, but not reason to exit short. This is where those imaginary lines in October (ETA: now added) come into play. Notice how much steeper my May purple downtrend is than the eventual more authoritative lime-green downtrend in Oct-Jan. If you look at October and had drawn a purple-style downtrend in Oct, it was also much steeper down and also had many more "fakeouts" above than the eventual shallower lime line. However, the market kept coming back to that steep downtrend until its eventual bottom and V bounce late Dec. I wrote all of the above (with the exception of the ETAs) and then realized that it was stupid to talk so much about the imaginary line without actually putting it on the chart. So just now I've added a purple steep down-trend line to the chart in Oct-Dec and I'm amazed at how that was eventually support for the V bottom. Very elegant and orderly.
I'm looking to the current steep purple downtrend to possibly provide future direction, though I also expect it to be unsustainably steep and that we'll see some action above it in the coming downcycle.
The markets' clear double-top mean that this could be our big 2000/2008-style correction. Please notice that both 2000 and 2008 had very similar double-top formations, though 2000 and 2008, the second top was slightly lower than the previous and in our case it's slightly higher. From a TA perspective, that's far less bearish than an equal double top or a lower high double top, but from my experience in crypto-trading where there is obvious whale manipulation, I've become very cynical and believe the legacy markets are manipulated just as much by the big boys, they're just more practiced and subtle about it. Pure TA would lead us to guess at a higher low than Dec. and a march back up for another higher high, but because of macro winds, I'm skeptical of that scenario. However, I've also painfully learned from the Dec-May bounce the truth of the maxim that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Stops must be honored, setups must have invalidation.
After writing that last sentence, I determined that $187-$191 (reclaiming the previous two ATHs) are clear red lines of invalidation, but also painfully distant from our current price, especially at 3x leverage of SQQQ. So I went ahead and cloned the Oct-Feb lime-green line to provide a second, closer point of invalidation whose violation will trigger a position size decrease and de-risking.
Best of luck and I look forward to hearing your thoughts as well!
SQQQ Inverse Share Split 1/4, Trade Wars and Chart looks good!The daily just closed above the 50 EMA on NASDAQ:SQQQ . Last time marked in yellow circles, the very next day went +13%. Not to mention, Proshares has annouced on May 24th for every 4 shares of SQQQ you'll recieve 1 back at 4 times the value. This is an even trade, but people will be buying or selling to have a quantity divisible by 4 (likely more buying than selling IMO). Also, the small bounce on Indexes today was unconvincing and Trade Wars wage on. With all that going for it, I think this is an easy long.
QQQ VOLATILIDAD DE RANGO ACOTADO ANTICIPA GRAN AJUSTE INMEDIATONASDAQ:QQQ
CUANDO EL QQQ (ETF DEL NASDAQ 100) SE COMPORTA CON UN MISMO RANGO DE VOLATILIDAD ENTRE 5 A 7 JORNADAS, ANTICIPA GRAN AJUSTE DE PRECIOS INMEDIATAMENTE.
ESTO ES EVIDENTE CUANDO EL VXXB (ETF VIX) CAE MUCHO Y LOS PRECIOS DEL MERCADO NO AVANZAN DEMASIADO.
NASDAQ - NQ1! - Gann Trend Prediction - SQQQFirst : Option Sniper says we have to get to december 3rd level to end Bearish Market.
twitter.com
Second : i try for the first time to draw a trend line with the Gann Fan on a daily chart.
I've learn a thing on you tube about the 192days cycle, so i hadded that to my guides.
My opinion is that it can't to back to bullish Market without coming down again at least 2 times from here to April.
Trade US/China will make it go up and down till end of febuary and beginning of march.
So basically, i'm going with SQQQ, with moving average
From 12,50$ to 14,50$
then up
then down
then up
I've been looking at for two months, learning, i may be very wrong, i"m doing this mostly to see if i can keep being better at my strategy
i'm looking for a longterm trend
then i look at 200/100 EMA
Then i look at 10/5 EMA
mostly on 1min, 5min, 15min
down trend is over when daily (20) goes down under 30 first
then volume goes higher high two green candles
$SPX $SPY $SPXS $TZA $SDS Gaps Tend to Get Filled!Lots of intraday pivot lows that will trigger strong sell-off today if price starts to breakdown.
Small Cap Stocks lead broad market - This is bearishSmall Cap Stocks lead broad market - This is bearish
Chart does the talking
VIDEO Showing where the markets should move next - DOWNVIDEO Showing where the markets should move next - DOWN
$SPY $SPXL $SPXU $SSO $SD $QQQ Inverse Funds provide opportunityThe chart here shows a simple trend and momentum shift in the stock market using the 4-hour chart and looking back several months.
I do post videos each morning of all the major markets here
US MAJORS COMBINED INDEX PAINT CLEAR PICTUREPrevious significant market top that formed a mini double top and drop looks to be happening again.
Monday we should see another gap down and continued follow-through selling, or at least next week which should create a spike in the vix as shown here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com
SPY into the crystal ballAll I can say is, what a Bounce! Well done Mr. President and institutions for keeping the Bears honest, btw: shout out to the real Mr. P! Unfortunately, you cannot prop up a market forever, and nature’s course will always find a way. I believe from this point on you can expect the market to be in a perpetual downtrend with lower highs and lower lows over the long term (next few years). I am not predicting a 'fell swoop' quick crash starting tomorrow, but more of an orderly sell-off until towards the end of the market cycle when everyone pushes the panic button together. You can see from the last two crashes how they behaved in this manner. Note: this trade idea is for a long term trading/investing. It is not guaranteeing that we will start the steep selling this week, although we certainly could. We could even stay at this level for a month; we don't really know but I would say better safe than sorry, establish your shorts and manage risk off of the 282 major horizontal resistance.
This market is about 6% overextended from where it "should" have turned around, based upon technical’s and their highest probabilities being at 262 reversal. I say "should" because there are no should's in the market, just what the price action does, and that is the only absolute truth. This is great for people who have been long up until this point. In a bear market, those gains can be taken out very quickly as we have seen 2 years of gains taken out in one month time (Dec 3- Dec 25 -16.6%) ...C'est la vie #BearMktLife
Fundamentals
I am not in a camp of looking at recent changes to influence these markets' fundamentals. These markets fundamentals are much more long term and lagging then people realize. These started 10 years ago after our last crash and how we have fiscally operated this country since then, during the 'biggest bull run in history'. Quantitative easing, Excessive Fed printing, bailouts, and 0% Fed interest for 9 years, etc etc. This market will not be saved from any of the following: trade deals with China, or how Powell "acts" at any given press conference, Government shutting down or reopening, Korea, AT&T merger, x, y, z... blah bla-blah. BTW- Re: China trade deals may conclude soon, which could provide initial strength as the deals are being put together and finalized. This could spike price up initially. But I am still of the camp that, "buy the hype sell the news" is prevalent human psychology. When an Unknown becomes a Known, the mystery is taken out of the market, and the only thing left to do is sell. Be careful of that one.
BTW- Fed and Trump are enemies.. Remember that.
Technicals
The tops that were put in during September, printed an RSI level that had only been achieved 3 other times in the history of the stock market, one of which was just before the great depression crash, the other two, strangely enough, were actually quite uneventful: 1929, 1955, 1996.
We have bearish divergences on the 4-hour chart: this officially happened today and started Feb 25th.
We have volume steadily decreasing since the inception of this bounce, still showing us the signature of indecision & reversal, as price goes higher on decreasing volume.
Our weekly stochastic is in the oversold area, I should have been watching this indicator more in the recent past, as opposed to the daily stochastic.
We have a nice clear ascending wedge in the white wedge pattern; we have finally broken this pattern.
Our Next horizontal support is at 275 its break if you missed the top and want to wait for confirmation then that is a level to consider
Candle: today we are creating a bearish engulfing candle: typically reversal
The above trades had very clear technical confluence and great places to manage risk off of. They have been my bigs trades up until this point, and have been majorly successful. This is number 3 on the chart because it is the 3rd BIG trade to take. As with the other trades, the importance of this area can only be seen as significant once enough time has passed as well as your opportunity.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
In the past 6 months of watching these markets closely, I had identified and posted some very high-quality trades listed on this chart, represented by 1 & 2 on the chart and linked below respectively.
*Please See the attached "Related Ideas" at the bottom for a walkthrough highlighting the past 6 months of this market accompanied by my analysis*
The above trades had very clear technical confluence and great places to manage risk off of. They have been my bigs trades up until this point, and have been majorly successful. This is number 3 on the chart because it is the 3rd BIG trade to take. As with the other trades, the importance of this area can only be seen as significant once enough time has passed as well as your opportunity.
The idea is this: we could be looking at the first bear market rally of this new bear market, which would essentially make "whatever area it tops at" the last high before a market crash/bear market. The technicals I am using today are more about market cycles and their behavior more than a certain trade set up. Since we are breaking down out of support @278.65 we could assume that a "local" top has been put in. We cannot say for certain if it is the ultimate top for the next few years or not as that requires a crystal ball. But I would say that the probabilities are highly stacked in favor of this being just that. The final top of a long arduous bear crash, with stops set just above these highs to manage your risk. If my final target at 157 is hit then this trade would have a risk to reward of 1:22 (1.8% Risk for 44% Gain). If you are using long term SQQQ options then the expected profit will be around 20x of your account from here to the final destination. If you want to close out of any shorter term contracts at our double bottom (235) in approx 3 months for a 5x on your account, then that could be wise. Then you would wait for that level to rebreak before reentry. After 235 breaks eventually we will look to close some positions within the 2015-2017 consolidation levels 212-185. From our current levels, if we get above 282 then you can close out of your short positions with a minimal loss, and look for a reentry higher possibly 286. If we break the all-time highs at 294 and live above them for a few weeks to a month, then we can assume that the bear market will not ensue and that I was in fact terribly wrong on this enormous trade plan.
It's as easy as 1, 2, 3.
Happy Trading Friends,
PipMiester
Please look at my related ideas attached below: very relevant information.
The ideas with "Historic" in the title were not meant to be public ideas, but I decided to make them publically available for this post.
Btw: Cudos to you tradingview bears over the past 6 months.
Shout out to Krown- I would be much less than half the trader I am today without your guidance that you graciously offer for free daily.
*This is not financial advice, as I am not a financial advisor. I am not registered with any agency and all assets traded have maximum loss potential. The information presented is for educational purposes only highlighting the differences between market cycles.
Nasdaq could lead the way on the correction - Techs Not So Hot!Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets. The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268. It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away. We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.
Weekly charting basis shows how dramatic the upside price move since December 24th has been It also shows the current high prices are very near to the high price levels near the end of November 2018/early December 2018. We believe this “intermediate double top” formation will prompt a downside price rotation towards support near 24985 (or a bit lower). This represents a -5.5% price rotation and will likely frighten a few long traders. It will also embolden the shorts to start to power back into the markets expecting “This is IT! – the Big One”. We believe this downside price rotation will become a very healthy moderate downside price swing that will revalue equity prices, re-establish support and prompt a new upside momentum move that may eventually break all-time highs later this year. In other words, we believe this rotation will be an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders. We show our volatility VIX setup forming here.
Be prepared for a moderately large, -4~6%, downside price rotation over the next 5~15 days where support will likely be found near the -5 to -6% levels for the YM and ES. The NQ may fall a bit further towards 6295 ~ 6773 (-6% to -12%). We believe the weakness in the technology sector will be much greater than the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.
QQQ SQQQ TQQQ QID PSQ QLD QQQX
Topping pattern/candles starting to form as expected...SPY Stock market showing signs of reversing but still needs several more days to form top. But who will lead the decline and next rally? DOW or NASDAQ?
Here is an article talking about it.
SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXU NASDAQ:QQQ SQQQ AMEX:DIA SDOW UDOW
SQQQ hmmmm....Closed above the magical 0.95 support. I bought calls before the bell to hedge my longs in case we see a big index drop.
$SPY pattern HEAD & SHOULDERS With the government coming back from the longest shutdown in history. We could still be expecting blowbacks from the affected sectors and companies. So what better pattern to complete this mash-up than a head and shoulders.
$SPY pattern HEAD & SHOULDERSPlease Like if you agree. The longest government shutdown in history ended with 35 days. But the blowback effect of all the reports and cutback are still ahead of us.. This is why I see head and shoulders in our pattern traders forecast.
SPY SIMPLE PATTERN MOVEMENTI suspect that the SPY can show signs of a possible Head and Shoulders. For those that also see this possible market reaction. Its best to have this in mind.
