BUY THE DIP ever heard of v shape recovery? after five Eliot waves up if we don't get an a-b-c correction, we then have v-shaped recovery. YEAH BIT**
Squidgame
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary - Overseas Profits Ponzied Buy Buy Buy. the playbook of the past decades with such low interest rates. Raising rates seems to be the the kryptonite. Not very popular to be messing with those. You know, cause then #stonks will crash. Don't wanna disturb the bubbles. oh my. More #quickmoney #squidgame #trumpcoin $DWAC SPAC #thetell (one of the many).
BUYER BEWARE! *valuation matters
#shibarmy #failarmy lemmings abundant. AVOID THE FOMO!!
sign of the times
There is nothing wrong in being wrong . i personally thought that BTC will retrace to 24k but i was wrong . as a trader or an analyzer we should know that our career would be full of times that we understand we were wrong . learn how to deal with it . don't let the negative feelings and thoughts lead you to that specific dark corner of your mind . let go of WHAT IF . in this situations you are allowed to look back only to find out your key mistakes . hurt feelings are part of this game .
Tug-of-War needs more than just raw strengthDon't lose your spirit. Tug-of-War needs more than just raw strength.
All you need is a good strategy in Tug-of-War and combined with good teamwork you can win against a stronger team.
When I was young I used to like Tug-of-War.
It's a game I know well and back then I would always win.
Even when there was a wrestler on the other team and the odds seemed stacked against us.
Listen Closely, and I will tell you how me and my team were able to win even when it seemed impossible.
First!
Having a good leader is very important.
That person is at the front and keeps an eye on the other team is performing.
And the rest of the team focus on the back of their leader and follows their lead.
If the leader looks weak or beginning to falter, the game is already over.
And Then, At the end of the rope.
You'll need to have someone strong, and dependable like the anchor of a ship.
After that, it's all about how you arrange the rest of your team.
One player is on the right side of the rope.
Then the next one should on the left.
All the way down the rope.
Both of your feet should be facing straight forward.
And hold the rope in your armpit.
That way everyone can put in all of their strength.
Finally, and this is the absolutely the most important thing.
Once the game begins.
For the first 237 days.
You have to hold your ground.
The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Don’t Make Money TradingSquid game is the hottest series on Netflix ($NFLX) right now, in which 456 players join a game of death, where they have a chance to win 456 Billion Korean Won (KRW), or 38.5 Milllion US Dollars.
What’s interesting about this series is that it depicts human sentiment in a very realistic way. We could see how market participants think and act by looking at the participants of the squid game.
A random guy appears at the subway station, and offers to play card flip, where he’d slap the player if he wins, and pay $100 if he loses. He actually ends up paying the players, stimulating their curiosity. Later, players are taken to a remote island where they have no clue what game they’re playing, with hopes of potentially winning life-changing money.
Beginners Luck turns to Attribution Bias
People who join the stock market are not different. They don’t know what game they’re playing, and what rules there are. Just as the subway guy invokes curiosity from the players by paying them small amounts of actual money, people are dragged into the stock market through stories of their friends and acquaintances making life-changing money by trading.
You try to remember the name of the stock or cryptocurrency your friend mentioned, and buy it without doing any due dilligence. You participate in the game of the market with 0 understanding of the game and rules.
When the stock/crypto you bought goes up (by chance), you fall into the trap of beginner’s luck. Beginner’s luck refers to a phenomenon or situation in which a beginner experiences a disproportionate ferquency of success against even experts in a certain field or activity. It’s often used in gambling and sports. But beginner’s luck leads to overconfidence and attribution bias.
Overconfidence refers to one’s excessive trust in his decisions based on gut-feeling and his cognitive abilities. This often leads to overtrading, and the market participant ends up paying excessive trading fees. Overconfident traders also tend to neglect statistics, and put all their eggs in one basket. They hardly listen to other people, and tend to choose the stocks/crypto they invest in themselves.
Attribution bias, or cognitive bias, is when people find reasons for their own and others’ behaviors. So when they’re in profit, they think that it’s all thanks to their amazing prediction. When they’re at a loss, it’s because the market was in an unfavorable situation, or simply because they were unlucky. Essentially, they constantly come up with excuses for every situation.
We all know Isaac Newton as a genius physicist, but he was a failure as an investor. He made the wrong investment decision when he invested in South Sea stocks, which led him to lose 20,000 pounds (about $4M today). He lost most of his life savings and famously said that “you can calculate the motions of heavenly stars, but not the madness of people” - a classic example of someone with attribution bias.
Mob Psychology and the Bandwagon Effect
This is accurately reflected in Squid Game. When players play ‘Red Light Green Light’, they are shocked to see other players get massacred. After the game is over, they later vote whether they want to continue playing the game or not. The surviving players fall into the trap of overconfidence and attribution bias.
Only 1 person out or 456 will survive and win the prize money. Statistically, every player has a 0.22% chance of survival. While this is statistically low, they’re taken away by the pile of cash hanging from the ceiling, and start believing that they’re special, and that they can win. Lotteries and gambling work in the same way, in which people bet on a probable case that is close to impossible. Sadly, most people approach trading like gambling.
In Squid Game, right before they play tug of war, a riot breaks out, and players are split into different factions. So when they’re told to team up for tug of war, teams are formed based on the factions that were formed the day before. This shows us mob psychology and the bandwagon effect.
Mob psychology, or mob mentaility, is when people follow the actions and behaviors of their peers when in large groups. The bandwagon effect falls within the scope of mob mentaility, and is a phenomenon in which people do something primarily because others are doing it , regardless of their own beliefs.
The same psychological phenomena can be applied to investors and traders in the market. Instead of trading based on their own trading rules, strategies, and analyses, they simply follow the actions of other market participants. These are the people who end up panic buying or selling, and falling victim to pump and dump schemes.
Conclusion
These psychological phenomena prevents us from making the right decisions in the market, and making the wrong decisions indicates that we lose money. Just like how most people in the Squid Game end up dying, there are many other people who entered the market with dreams of becoming a millionaire, only to lose everything. But unlike the Squid Game, the financial markets isn’t a winner-takes-all. If you can understand the characteristics and rules of each market, and do your due diligence on different ways to beat the market, you can have a statistical edge. As a trader, I would say that technical knowledge accounts to less than 5% of what it takes to be successful. It’s more about understanding your cognitive bias and controlling your emotions and psychological state.
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You Short You Die! CEISquid Game plan for CEI Feb 22 2022. Red Light Green Light area very reachable. Lets see what happens. AMEX:CEI
Playing the Squid Game on South KoreaThe South Korean show Squid Game dramatizes, in part, the extremely high household debt levels in that country. With household debt-to-GDP highest in the world, South Korean 30-somethings owe an average of 270% of their annual income.
Those are the kinds of household debt levels that could either plunge the country into recession as credit tightens or cause young Koreans to compete to the death on a dystopian game show for the entertainment of billionaire VIPs.
South Korea looks better in terms of government debt-to-GDP, which allows room for government to provide household debt relief or economic stimulus by growing its debt. That's partly why South Koreans elected a center-left proponent of universal basic income in last Sunday's presidential election.
South Korea's technology-heavy stock index trades at about half the price of other advanced economies on a free cash flow basis. Stocks have sold off sharply in recent months, setting up a possible short-term long-side mean-reversion play. By buying the index, you get large exposure to household names like Samsung and Hyundai. I also like some smaller names like South Korea Telecom, which trades at 2.75 forward P/E with nearly 5% dividend yield.
But household debt remains a long-term risk for South Korea, so I think you carefully scale in. I took a small position here just to satisfy my FOMO, in case we bounce now that the presidential election is over. I am hoping for further selloff to about $26.20 to take a real entry-level position. I will add more at secondary support around $24. Because of the risk of a credit recession, I am sizing my position so that if I should happen to lose this squid game, I won't get killed. :)
This is part of my recent initiative to diversify away from US stocks.
