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Stablecoindominance

Stablecoin Dominance vs Altcoins – Final Altseason Loading?This chart visualises a powerful relationship — stablecoin dominance (USDT.D + USDC.D) versus OTHERS dominance (i.e. altcoins excluding BTC and ETH). Put simply: When this chart moves down, stablecoins are flowing into altcoins — risk-on behavior, altseason ignites. When it moves up, capital rotates back into stables — risk-off behavior, weakness across alts. This has nailed every major altseason impulse and correction cycle over the past few years. Right now, we’re seeing this pair push higher into a key supply zone — the same distribution range it previously broke down from. My expectation is a retest of that breakdown zone, which should align with a short-term correction in the altcoin market. 📉 Once this retest plays out and we see signs of weakness at supply, I anticipate continuation bearish in this pair — leading to stablecoins flowing back into altcoins. That next leg down into higher time frame demand could mark the final altseason push, before the broader market tops out. If we follow the usual cycle pattern, that last alt impulse will likely drag retail back in for the top — just before distribution takes over and the bear phase begins. 🧠 In short: Push into supply → altcoin correction Breakdown → capital rotation back into alts Final altseason + market top → bottoming of this chart + reversal bullish This will be a key chart I’ll track closely over the next few months — it offers one of the cleanest reads on altcoin liquidity flow and timing for top formation. 1W:
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
2
USDT.D Update: Range Reversal in Play?Initially in my last update, I was expecting USDT.D to push into daily supply levels after taking the swing low from the prior daily higher low — pulling back into supply before continuing lower after the market structure break. Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity. Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back. I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market. From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher. Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets. This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over. 1D: 3D: 1W: 3M:
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
2
Finding BTC Top by Stable coin dominaceI think the next leg could be the final push of BTC in this cycle. However, it seems every time the Dominance of stable coins (in this case USDT+USDC) is dropping to certain point in larger timeframe can be relative to find the next top. I think at least we can come back to 4.92% which it has been touched numerous time in this cycle such as 11/03/2024 and 09/12/2024. It has the potential to fall a bit further to 4.64% or even 3.87 to 3.67% as well/
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by MehranVa1992
1
USDT.D Bearish Reversal Incoming Into a New Bullish Phase in BTCUSDT.D Update: Its been a while since my last USDT.D update on here since i accurately forecasted and called the top in September last year from its last distribution range. Since then, Ive been expecting USDT.D and USDC.D to continue higher into deeper premiums and into monthly and 3M supply areas, taking further BSL in the process and coming into the HTF downtrend channel high, whilst the rest of the market continued bearish after the first moves from last year. Both have done just that, pushing higher to extreme supply and heavy premium pricing. USDT.D has topped out with high volume as it come into refined extreme daily supply from the UT event in the prior distribution range, whilst taking the LQ at the 5.93% level i discussed in the market update videos. This is effectively following last points of supply from one distribution range to the next, following HTF bearish orderflow and HTF bearish structure in stablecoin dominance pairs. From the recent UTAD event we have seen bearish breakdowns on the daily timeframe on both USDT.D and and USDC.D, marking a turn in the market where things should start to get more interesting! Im looking for this again but on the weekly timeframe and monitoring for a HTF weekly close below the weekly HL, therefore putting in a LL on the weekly to give further HTF confirmations of the reversal from this area. Whats interesting at this point is the last couple days of data on both USDT.D and USDC.D and the range conditions we are now creating. For me, it looks pretty similar to the last top, where we created a distribution range in HTF supply after taking extreme key levels and LQ, putting the market in extreme fear, before slowly flipping bearish in the range before a full blown reversal and breakdown to the 3.73% level. Im expecting a bounce of some degree over the next week or so in USDT.D back into the 5.57% region where the range high sits alongside some daily and refined 12H supply zones from the UTAD event. Im looking for a push into supply forming a LPSY last point of supply in phase D, before continuing HTF bearish to target SSL on the lows of this upward trend channel with my main targets between 3.73% and 3.12%. This aligns with what im seeing in BTC as posted today on TradingView and the market, expecting a pullback to demand respectively before continued upside. I don't for see this taking the highs again above 6.24%. There is a lot of resistance and supply in this range now we have broke down and its likely we are seeing the formation of the reversal taking shape in due course. As ive stated i the most recent BTC analysis, this is a risk on situation in my opinion and i will be allocating capital to spot bags as USDT.D hits its supply levels in the range highs and as BTC comes into the daily demand levels im monitoring between $84,000 - $76,500, buying the dip whilst expecting further upside and a HL to form in BTC and new LHs in stablecoin dominance pairs. To finish, look at this chart on the daily, 2D, 3D, 4D, 5D, 1W, 2W, 3W charts and really look at the HTF closes on these candles at these highs. Theres been no HTF bullish closes above HTF supply or significant highs. Price has failed to put in new higher highs and is merely sweeping highs now with high volume rejections, volume dropping off, all whilst looking like a top imo with HTF weekly rejections all the way up to the monthly candle. 1D: 3D:https://www.tradingview.website/x/XtxjrvGR/ 1W: 1M:
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
5
USDC Leads Stablecoin Market Cap Growth in 2024, Surpassing USDT The year 2024 witnessed a significant shift in the stablecoin landscape, with Circle's USD Coin (USDC) demonstrating a remarkable resurgence and outperforming its main competitor, Tether's USDT, in terms of market capitalization growth. This surge marks a significant milestone for USDC, which had faced a considerable setback in 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This article delves into the factors contributing to USDC's impressive recovery and its implications for the broader stablecoin market. USDC's Rocky Road to Recovery USDC's journey in recent years has been a rollercoaster ride. In 2023, the stablecoin experienced a substantial downturn, with its market cap plummeting by 45%. This decline was largely attributed to the collapse of SVB, where Circle had a portion of its reserves held. The bank's failure triggered a crisis of confidence in USDC, leading to significant withdrawals and a temporary de-pegging from the US dollar. This event cast a shadow over USDC's future and raised concerns about the stability of stablecoins in general. However, USDC's performance in 2024 tells a different story. The stablecoin not only recovered from the SVB-induced slump but also surpassed USDT in market cap growth. This remarkable turnaround underscores USDC's resilience and the growing trust in its underlying mechanisms. Factors Driving USDC's Growth Several factors have contributed to USDC's impressive growth in 2024: 1. Increased Regulatory Clarity: The evolving regulatory landscape surrounding stablecoins has been crucial in USDC's resurgence. As governments worldwide are increasingly focusing on establishing clear frameworks for stablecoin operations, USDC's commitment to transparency and compliance has resonated with investors and users. This regulatory clarity has fostered a more favorable environment for USDC, attracting both institutional and retail adoption. 2. Focus on Trust and Transparency: Circle has prioritized building trust and transparency in its operations. The company regularly publishes attestations of its reserves, providing assurance to users that USDC is fully backed by traditional assets. This commitment to transparency has been instrumental in restoring confidence in USDC following the SVB crisis. 3. Expansion of Blockchain Infrastructure: The continuous development and expansion of blockchain infrastructure have also contributed to USDC's growth. As more blockchain networks integrate USDC, its utility and accessibility increase, driving adoption and market capitalization. 4. Growing Institutional Adoption: USDC has witnessed increasing adoption among institutional investors. These investors are drawn to USDC's stability, transparency, and regulatory compliance, making it a preferred choice for various use cases, including trading, lending, and payments. 5. Market Demand for Diversification: The stablecoin market has been increasingly seeking diversification beyond USDT. Concerns about the composition of Tether's reserves and its lack of transparency have led investors to explore alternative stablecoins. USDC, with its focus on transparency and regulatory compliance, has emerged as a leading beneficiary of this trend. USDC vs. USDT: A Closer Look USDC and USDT are the two dominant stablecoins in the market, but they differ significantly in their approach and underlying mechanisms. • Transparency and Audits: USDC has been lauded for its transparency, with regular audits and attestations of its reserves. In contrast, Tether has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and the composition of its reserves. • Regulatory Compliance: Circle has actively engaged with regulators and prioritized compliance, while Tether has faced regulatory scrutiny in various jurisdictions. • Market Capitalization: While USDT still holds the largest market share, USDC has been steadily closing the gap, driven by its strong growth in 2024. Implications for the Stablecoin Market USDC's surge has significant implications for the broader stablecoin market: • Increased Competition: USDC's growth has intensified competition in the stablecoin market, challenging USDT's dominance. This competition is healthy for the market, driving innovation and improving standards. • Focus on Transparency and Compliance: USDC's success has reinforced the importance of transparency and regulatory compliance in the stablecoin industry. This trend is likely to continue, with stablecoin issuers prioritizing these aspects to gain trust and adoption. • Growing Institutional Interest: The increasing institutional adoption of USDC signals a growing acceptance of stablecoins as a legitimate asset class. This trend is likely to attract more institutional investors to the stablecoin market, further driving its growth. Conclusion Circle's USDC has demonstrated a remarkable recovery and growth in 2024, outperforming Tether's USDT in market cap surge. This resurgence can be attributed to several factors, including increased regulatory clarity, a focus on trust and transparency, expansion of blockchain infrastructure, growing institutional adoption, and market demand for diversification. USDC's success has significant implications for the stablecoin market, intensifying competition, emphasizing transparency and compliance, and attracting growing institutional interest. As the stablecoin market continues to evolve, USDC is poised to play a leading role, shaping its future and driving its adoption in the broader financial ecosystem.
CRYPTOCAP:USDCLong
by bryandowningqln
USDC.D In a Wyckoff Distribution range - Breakdown imminentUSDC.D Looking bearish as hell here in its Wyckoff distribution range. Compare it to USDT.D and see the similarities. The difference being USDC.D is leading here and weaker, compared with USDT.D. Both still look great for the downside here and its only a matter of time before they roll over and the market runs to new highs! USDC.D: USDT.D: Once this breaks down with USDT.D, we are in for the next bullish expansion in the market to new ATHs!
CRYPTOCAP:USDC.DShort
by marshyyy
2
USDT.D Incoming bearish reversal and a bullish market and Q4!Im loving the look of USDT.D right now, it looks so bearish with the recent HTF closes. It looks done for and in the perfect wyckoff distribution. Following the plan to a T, rejecting off the 5.90% level as discussed in the prior analysis where this was a key resistance level from the first PSY event. Price has refused to push to the upper limit of the range, rejecting from the last supply point and PSY in the range, formed a swing high on the daily, swept that high and is now continuing to distribute lower in line with the HTF picture. This does look like a local top here following the last points of supply and we could be putting in local bottoms in the market. Market could start its next run higher anytime over the next couple weeks now! Be patient, we are almost there!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
Stablecoin Dominance Tipping PointI see two possible scenarios playing out: The Bullish Scenario The dominance goes lower and respects the current downtrend. This could either bounce off roughly 6% (this area has seen some interesting patterns in the chart) or just continue collapsing down. This would be bullish depending on if we don't have much trouble clearing the 5.8-6% range. The Bearish Scenario We break the current downtrend by going up to 7.5% or above in the next 2-3 weeks, at which point I think that worst case we would test somewhere around 8.15%. This would be short to slightly medium-term bearish at the worst in my opinion. I lean towards the bull case simply because markets are usually boring or choppy the month or so after the Bitcoin halving event; things usually ramp up after. We've dumped over 20% in BTC and altcoins got flushed aggressively while not establishing lower local lows at the same time as BTC did recently. Despite being bullish, it's definitely at a tipping point where if it goes up by a bit more then it's a cause for concern. This is a good chart to watch closely for the next 1-3 weeks as evidence of more incoming corrections for a few more weeks or as evidence of the bullish trend resuming.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by houseofcarle