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SPX at a decisive pointWe recently pointed out how the Chinese stock market started to stagnate despite the regulator's intervention. Additionally, we noted that this was likely to happen in the U.S. market as well. Fast forward to today, and that is indeed the case. Since the beginning of the current month, SPX failed to reach a new high. Therefore, we are paying close attention to multiple technical indicators on the daily chart, which suggests that SPX might be at a decisive turning point. Over the past few days, Stochastic and RSI flattened (on the daily chart). To bolster a bearish case, we want to see them start declining. Furthermore, we want to see MACD drop below the midpoint, which would also strengthen the bearish case. In such a scenario, we expect SPX to drift below $4,400. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we want to see all these indicators trend to the upside, with MACD holding above the midpoint. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of MACD, which is flattening just slightly above the midpoint. Breakout below zero will be bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates an opening gap on 5th September 2023 that has not been filled yet. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
13
Uncertainty spreads among investors as they await more dataIn the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve (FED) meeting and subsequent 25 basis points rate hike, SPX has been experiencing fluctuating price action, oscillating primarily between $4,520 and $4,600. This range-bound activity could indicate investors’ caution as they grapple with the implications of the FED's policy changes and monitor the incoming economic data to ascertain the overall market direction. Today, we will get an update on S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and JOLTs Job Openings (note that we are not listing every data release, only ones important to us). On Thursday, we will get more information on initial jobless claims, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and ISM Services PMI. Then finally, on Friday, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are scheduled to come out. We will wait for these figures and reassess our views accordingly. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Yellow arrows indicate the divergence between the price and technical indicators MACD and RSI; in addition to that, on the MACD’s graph, the signal line can be seen breaking above the MACD line, which is slightly bearish (but it could still be only a fakeout). Therefore, we will monitor these two indicators in the following days for any signs of a potential trend reversal. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
SPX - News lows and the follow-upLike the rest of the market, SPX hit a new low for 2022. By doing so, it reached our price target of 3 500 USD, and therefore, we would like to provide our thoughts on this asset. We continue to be bearish in general. However, at the moment, we would like to stay on the sidelines and monitor the market. We believe economic conditions will worsen with another rate hike in early November and the upcoming earning season. Therefore, we have little faith in the reversal of the primary trend. Instead, we believe that the bear market has not ended, and new lows will be set over time. As for the short-term, we will look for clues indicating exhaustion within the bounce move-up. Indeed, we think the current bounce represents an excellent opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance 1, it will be bullish; the same applies to the sloping resistance 2. The failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of reversing to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame shows signs of relief after the market became oversold in the short term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
20
Gradually Shifting Normal Price HigherI think I see the plot here, idk just an idea based on Newton’s LOLZ: The black dotted line around 140 is the “normal price” - just need a name to reference for the rest, calling it normal because Gaussian sounds lame. Yellow dotted lines are +-1 s.d., orange 2, red 3. GME needs to gradually walk the normal price higher to be able to trade at that level for a sustained period. The previous pop back in March did not walk the norm higher, it just squeezed the FUD and then gave it all back and the norm stayed fairly unchanged. Recent run tho is interesting, it’s actually taking its time and establishing a base at each successive level like a staircase. This current consolidation at the norm is attempting to change the norm by establishing a base for next pop to between 157 and 175.. it will likely consolidate there until high 160s become the norm, and then it will retest old norm for support before shooting for 175-193... etc, etc When you play the Game of thrones you win or you Stop.
NYSE:GMELong
by JabezDolz
Standard (STND) technical analysisFirst of all, be careful, Bitcoin (BTC) might make another downtrend wave; as a result, most of the altcoins will go down as well. As for the STND, price is moving in a downtrend channel-like trend. For the uptrend to be confirmed, at least the middle line must break along with an increase in buy volume. If the channel upper line breaks, STND most probably will go up to the double line uptrend. Also, watch for the horizontal line that is if the price reaches there, will correct rapidly; unless STND breaks it with a significant volume; that's another story.
Short
by SaeedSalehinia
Big 4 SA Banks - 1W Channel Breaks I would have thought that bearishness in the SA banking sector is a thing of the past, with earnings showing bank balance sheets & prospects to be more robust than feared in the Covid sell-off. However their consistent grind higher since call it Jun/Jul last year looks to have stalled, with the Big 4: - Showing channel breaks on their 1W charts, - All trading in the no mans land between 15 EMA & 200 DMA, - Negative momentum (RSI,MACD) - Strong $ / weakening ZAR not positive for their outlook Never thought I'd say it so soon into the recovery but, in a short term time frame, time to short SA banks? Or, if you have time to sit it out and an appetite for drawdowns, a good buying opportunity here? Not shown is 1W the Capitec chart - with a few spinning tops that one could go also either way IMHO JSE:FSR JSE:SBK JSE:NED JSE:ABG JSE:CPI
JSE:ABG
by unclecool787
XRP Too Easy- This move doesn't always set up... but when it does it moons - Daily is not the strongest signal but, can give great depth on the short term prediction - With the MacD crossing bullish I expect a cross over that takes XRP hodlers very high up! - ADX historically has been able to bounce up a positive sloping trend line 7 times now - One debate I am currently thinking in my head and XRP community is whether to use the date in 2016 or 2017 to compare. - In 2017 we were sitting around the 90c region. - BTC is currently sitting in its 2016 position of its 2017 Bullrun in 2020 into 2021. Link to chart below. - Can XRP be a first mover this time since it battled one of the worst bear seasons any trader has ever seen. I think so. I look forward to sitting back and watch XRP go into price discovery mode in the upcoming months. I imagine that in one year to date, XRP will not be in the cents or the dollars. Perhaps the 10s or 20s. Huge ROI opportunity my opinion. Patience will be rewarded w/ the correct trades this year.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by AthenticWhale1
5
S&P 500 - Next Steps for 2019+Over the last 7 years, S&P 500 has respected EMA 200 + long term diagonal support; with very similar touch-points. There is currently a challenging double top in the 295 area which might push the price down to consolidate between 257-295. The current channel is between 273-295 which if you want to profit, you would want to zoom-in a trade set-up with a lower time-frame. If consolidation remains, this could be in danger zone as it approaches a very strong support with EMA 200 + long-term trend line which was just tested in December 2018. Stochastic indicator also tell us good information about the trend confirmation of the movements: -It remains over the 'Stoch' limits when the rally has been continuous - Spikes down the limit with aggressive bound representing big support rejection - Inside limit area: consolidation A good approach with the stochastic , EMA and trend line would be the following: - 295 break up + continuous 'stoch' above limit will definitely confirm another rally with 295 as resistance in case a fake break happens - A break below 273 with 'stoch' inside limit areas might indicate a possible test of the biggest support: around 258 levels touching EMA 200 + trend line . - Stochastic below the limit on this scenario could mean an aggressive sell-off and will have to see if it bounces on 258 + EMA 200 + trend line which could be a good buy opportunity with low stop loss. This long-term strategy is currently in a neutral position, we would need to wait for channel confirmation. If you want to trade, you would need to go into a lower time frame.
AMEX:SPY
by Wolf
OHI PRICE FORECAST USING PAST CONVERGENCE PATTERNS & K-VARIANCE REFERENCE KEY: Yellow Horizontal Lines = Key Support Intervals (K). Orange slopes = Key Resistance Intervals based on convergence model. White Regression trend represents a LOG/Linear slope equal to (((0.33X-1)T/V)^2) Where, 0.33 = Series Conv {((Alternating Series Test), If for all n, an is positive, non-increasing (i.e. 0 < an+1 <= an), and approaching zero, then the alternating series equals 1 }, T= Time-frame V = %Change X = Standard Div / Variance Forecast Findings (95%): This chart shows a mathematical and technical forecast for Omaha Healthcare Investors for the next 5 trading days. Based on previous activity a sell-off of more than 5% yields a rapid rebound equal to previous support levels. Given that OHI saw a 6.11% correction, compounded regression show a standard procession of variance at $1.86 or 5.18% where in approximately 23 hours from the time of this writing the closing price will be equal to $38.33 on Wednesday Feb 13th. After the markets close. the buying activity will be followed by a convergence of sell-side activity reducing the daily price change from 1.86 to 1.13, the final percentage gain going into trading hours on Thursday will be %3.08 and the price at market open for OHI on Thursday Feb 14th will be $37.57. Adjust your trades according to this forcast and use the model for future predictions and you will maximize your profits from trading OHI. These variance metrics are extremely consistent and the convergence (K = 1+v^2) factorization almost never deviates outside of the provided Intervals. FWYB, DanOmun.
NYSE:OHILong
by danOmun
Dark Cloud Cover on SBKA dark cloud cover has formed on JSE:SBK which is a top reversal signal, so we can expect a downwards move. A dark cloud cover follows a preceding up trend where a red candle opens up above the previous day's green candle and closes 50% below it's body. This particular pattern has formed on quite a strong resistance level which solidifies the signal. We will look at entering a short position if it trades around the 17200 level with a target around the previous support level of around 16000.
JSE:SBKShort
by RossLarter
SBK Corrective Structure - Effort To BreakStandard Bank Group Ltd. is the ultimate holding company for the group’s interests and is a leading African financial services group with South African roots. The group is South Africa’s largest banking group by assets and currently operates in 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Their strategic position enables them to connect Africa to other selected emerging markets and pools of capital in developed markets. Technicals Weekly: A predominant uptrend on SBK has been evident for a few decades now although there have been a few significant pullbacks. The current structure formation leads me to believe that we are in a large correction at this point in time. I expect some recovery soon and then will be looking for wave 3 of the correction to the downside. I expect this wave to complete on the support of the underlying trend where I will be looking for a reversal to enter the long. Daily: There has been a break of the downward trendline but I am not convinced of the reversal as yet. I will wait for a confirmation structure on a smaller time frame before entering the long for wave 2 on the weekly time frame.
JSE:SBKLong
by Linton_White
S&P: 0.618 Fib on 1M. Potential Support.The index aggressively crossed the 1W Channel Up to the downside last week (RSI = 36.642, MACD = -236.100, Highs/Lows = -527.9643, B/BP = -1241.7760) presenting the first such correction on S&P since March. I has however found support near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on 1M (monthly). Also the Monthly Higher Low supporting line is just below, indicating that a strong support base and buying demand zone is present on a monthly basis (RSI = 45.274, MACD = 241.800). Our target in one month's time approximately is 2,878.00 with 2,807.75 the intermediate TP.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope