BTC Halving Chart is it buy time soon?Here's my chart of the Bitcoin halving,
based on the statistics from all the other halvings it could be time to buy again soon.
It's always important to keep analyses like this in mind.
Statisticalprobability
EURUSD...Last week + projections!We finally broke out of that consolidation zone, and JUST when it started looked like the Euro was going to start free-falling...my stochastic started giving me strong buy signals...Right at the end of the week too, which sucked because the best entries to this upturn we've seen this past week came on Thursday and Friday 🤬....
Luckily, by Monday, the r-squared value of the low pivot trend line (see chart) had hit above .7 suggesting a very strong correlation between the low pivot line and the down fractal values (price reversal); easy entry (1.25 ATR stoploss). The best exit came Tuesday night EST, right before the London session. I got out when my both stochastic values dropped below 20. The next two buy signals came after price crossed the low pivot line once again which by now had a .89 r-squared correlation. Price traveled all the way up to it's current peak, which was confirmed with an up fractal two bars later on the 1hr chart. At this point both pivot lines have r-squared values over .85, and they run pretty much parallel to one another, suggesting that price has formed a very strong upward channel, and that price is most likely headed back down to the low pivot line, we'll see!
UAA longUAA long
Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida
SPX has closed within 0.22% of previous day's close "Statistic" - I went back and looked those two occasions to see, the results are reflected on the chart.
According to Ryan Detrick , that is now 6 days in a row the S&P 500 has closed within 0.22% of the previous day's close.
This ties the longest streak since December 2017.The longest ever? 10 in November 1961.
Statistical Probability of A Price GuessA price guess has 33% to be correct because the price has only three directions. The price of a security may trade higher, may trade in a narrow range, or trade lower.
Thank you for reading!
Greenfield
Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. This is not a recommendation, not a representation, and not a solicitation. You should do your research and come to your own decision. Investment involves significant risks. You need to understand that you may lose your money. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Chart reading is subjective information.
Dax daily: 31 Jul 2020Congratulations to all traders who went short with us yesterday. Another success to add to our analysis records. Just as we expected, Dax slipped away from the consolidation range and took a prudent southern direction right after the open. The momentum was rapid and the price pierced through two support levels. If you were aiming our target at 12 592, we congratulate you for a lovely 200 points of profit.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494, 12 592
Support: 12 278, 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Dax shifted to the new territory after yesterday's sell-off and bounced off the support at 12 278. The disappointing print of German GDP was the movement catalyst and chances are the bearish momentum will prevail. The price is currently in between two S/R zones and might possibly stay there as Friday's session are usually slower. We anticipate the overnight gap to get closed.
Dax daily: 30 Jul 2020Dax hasn't really gone anywhere yesterday. There was almost no volatility in the market and the situation resembled a calm before the storm. The price was oscillating in the narrow consolidation range below 12 882. The FOMC has supported the price slightly towards the end of the session and Dax closed in positive numbers for the day.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today's analysis will not bring any breaking news. Ultimately just for the fact that Dax hasn't moved anywhere yesterday, our hypothesis remains unchanged. The resistance at 12 882 is now a key zone and we rather anticipate shorts, in spite of yesterday's positive close related to temporary volatility caused by FOMC. The consolidation of the past days doesn't provide relevant signals and we have to wait for some serious price action. Remember that no trade is a good trade, sometimes. There is a row of macroeconomic events from the Eurozone in the early London session, yet all of those have low importance.
Dax daily: 28 Jul 2020Yesterday's session turned out as expected. The price action truly was slow, if not lazy, and Dax hasn't really gone anywhere. The price oscillated just below 12 882 zone and the daily close was very slightly positive. Is this a good hint for buyers?
Important zones
Resistance: 13 119, 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we don't have any scheduled macroeconomic releases that could amp Dax. There is no overnight gap either. And to top it up, yesterday's price action hasn't really done anything yesterday and so we'll stick to our hypothesis and monitor the price development around 12 882 S/R zone. If sellers turn out to be more aggressive, our scenario is clear. Stoploss below 12 765 while targeting 13 119. This currently makes sense to us. Contrary, should the initial momentum reverse, we'll look at 12 592 as our target.
Dax daily: 20 Jul 2020On Friday, the price remained around 12 915 and the market balance was confirmed again. As we expected, Dax traded rather sideways without any reasonable volatility. Bullish traders managed to close the session on its daily high, but it definitely wasn't a signal of an uptrend.
Important zones
Resistance: 13 119
Support: 12 882
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
The week opens with a reasonably small descending gap. The price is, once again, at the VPOC of the previous trading session. 12 882 is now the support level and if buyers are to take the price higher, this S/R level could serve as a very good entry level with the target to 13 119. The last two sessions of the past week can also be understood as an insufficient signal of the bullish strength, despite the clear upwards direction, yet without much momentum. Contrary, should 12 882 be broken to the downside, Dax has a lot of free space towards 12 592.
Dax daily: 17 Jul 2020Yesterday's analysis turned out as expected, again. The market stalled around 12 882, closing the gap and retesting the VPOC of the previous day. Dax stalled around this level and hasn't taken any clear direction afterwards.
Important zones
Resistance: 13 119
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
The price opened without any significant gap today and Dax is currently trading around yesterday's VPOC of 12 915. It will be important to observe the price behaviour of higher volume in the current range. Dax is now at the level where market participants are willing to trade and consider it adequately priced. For such reason, we don't expect any rapid bullish move but rather a slower move sideways.
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2020For yesterday, we expected bulls to attempt for higher levels. The morning session was positive in this sense, but then we saw a rapid sell-off, even below 12 494. This is where the support level functioned nicely but the momentum wasn't that strong co correct the down push.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494, 12 592
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
The price opened with a significant descending gap, priced at 12 418. We are now far below 12 494 which changes our lookout from the previous days. As a matter of fact, the drop signifies that bulls are not present in the market or they are not willing to push the price higher under current market circumstances. We now have to re-evaluate the directional bias, based on the signals we spot in the price action. Since Dax opened below the support level, the price can easily continue to lower levels. The zone around 12 278 is the real support area we could target.
Dax daily: 09 Jul 2020As we thought, the retest and breakout of 12 592 really happened. Since the open, the price took an upward momentum and broke the S/R level for a short period of time. Bears stepped in and corrected the morning push back to 12 494 and proved the significance of both zones. The session was very interesting and the false breakouts could have caused troubles to some trading styles. 12 494 remained supportive and Dax bounced back to the upside, closing almost at 12 592.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today's session starts with an ascending breakout and the gap being closed already. We stick to our bullish bias but it's quite possible we'll see a correction towards 12 540, which is the VPOC level of yesterday. Should Dax descend there, we'll understand this as a good entry level for buyers, targeting 12 882. Today's volatility might also be influenced by the Eurogroup meetings throughout the day.
Dax daily: 08 Jul 2020Yesterday's session hasn't turned out exactly according to our expectations. Although Dax descended lower to retest our Support zone at 12 592 as we predicted, the price continued lower instead of reversing to the upside. Dax very precisely respected Friday's VPOC in correlation with the Support level at 12 494 and held further sell-offs.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 592
Support: 12 494
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
The price opened in the very near vicinity of the S/R level at 12 494 with the initial 'fake-out'. It appeared the initial impulsive move took Dax back to the consolidation range of the past weeks, yet it is apparent that it is the range that buyers want to avoid hence retracing the initial drop. We don't have any important macroeconomic events scheduled for today, but tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting could serve as the catalyst to bring some momentum for Dax. The statistical probabilities are also silent for today hence we target the nearest resistance level at 12 595 to either be retested or broken to the upside.
Dax daily: 07 Jul 2020Yesterday's session started optimistically and at one moment, it looked like buyers head straight towards 12 882. But as we know, appearances are deceptive. Sellers stepped in to suppress the bullish attempts and dominated the rest of the session. Bearish traders took the price lower to retest Friday's high, yet failed to close the weekend gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today's session opened with a descending gap. At the time of writing, Dax continues in the gap direction towards 12 592, which is the nearest S/R zone. After some struggles, buyers managed to get the price out of the consolidation range of the previous weeks and we believe these attempts won't be easily halted. Chances are that 12 592 will be an important zone to support the price and a good entry point for buyers. The least we're eyeing is the return to 12 715 and then attempts to target 12 882.
Dax daily: 06 Jul 2020No further price growth has been witnessed on Friday. After retest of the previous High, Dax pulled back to 12 494 S/R level and consolidated there for a time being, just to respect this zone and range slowly towards 12 592. The daily volatility was low due to a bank holiday in the US.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Dax took a bit of a delay since Friday's prognosis and opened the week with an ascending gap. The price opened at 12 776 and is descending slowly at the time of writing. Dax is now above the consolidation range and the nearest resistance level lays at 12 882. This might the most important target for bullish traders and we'll be eying to focus our attention there as well. It is, however, very likely that Dax will first retest Friday's levels and the retest of 12 882 comes later in the week.
Dax daily: 03 Jul 2020We predicted yesterday that Dax was on its way to target 12 494. This analysis turned out correct and the price reached all the way to 12 592. This is also where the new fair value was formed - the balanced price with biggest volume of orders. Despite the correction of the last trading hour of the session, yesterday's session can be classified very positively for buyers.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
Today's session hypothesis
Friday's session starts with an ascending gap and it looks like the continuation to the upside is likely. We have enough space ahead of us without consolidation and we'd like to see market participants taking advantage of the price momentum. After breaking above 12 494, Dax gave us a clear signal to continue to higher levels. Another resistance in sight is up at 12 882.
Dax daily: 01 Jul 2020Tuesday's session was considerably slower to what we are used to. Once the session opened, Dax took a direction to break the previous day high, as suggested by the Statistical application. The day was closed in the black numbers but the volatility was really low. Dax remains in the consolidation range where the odds are still neutral.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today's session hypothesis
The month of July opens with a descending gap and we expect the closure, also for the reasons that Dax is still in the consolidation range and the trading activity is mostly sideways. We don't have a clear directional bias and our key S/R zones remain unchanged. Keep an eye on the Eurozone PMI reports in the morning session and the FOMC later in the US session. There is no clear scenario as of now, and we're awaiting what markets offer.
Dax daily: 30 Jun 2020The week started with a price correction and Dax reached 12 151 as we anticipated. Take a look at how nicely this zone functioned. This was the level where buyers and sellers battled over the dominance of further price development. Bulls won this call and took Dax back to the consolidation range. Again. The price is now in a balanced area where it is understood as fairly valued. The session was closed in the black numbers and at its daily high.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today's session could be optimistic for buyers. As per the Statistical application, there is an increased probability of breaking yesterday's high, which, unfortunately, is relatively very near so it doesn't offer good RR. The consolidation range is quite wide and it's not yet fully clear where the price might head. The resistance at 12 494 is relatively far away but if we had to favour one side of the story, we have a bullish bias in the mid to long-term horizon.
Dax daily: 29 Jun 2020On Friday, we anticipated that Dax will remain in its consolidation range above 12 151, however, sellers found enough strength to break below this zone, keeping the price suppressed. Not only the session was closed at its daily low but the significant volume of orders moved lower as well and this signifies the sellers' dominance.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 151
Support: 11 829
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Monday's session started with a descending gap, yet the bearish sentiment doesn't fully control the initial trading hour. The price is confidently heading towards the weekend gap closure at the time of writing. For today, we have two important zones marked nearby - 12 151 as the resistance and 11 829 as the support. It is quite possible that we'll see some correction of Friday's drop before bears step in again to target 11 829. Have a good trading week!
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2020As we predicted yesterday, Dax made its way outside of the consolidation range when it broke out of the resistance at 12 494. Just as we wrote, this breakout was a clear signal to retest another S/R level in the row and that is exactly what happened. Dax continued to hit the resistance at 12 595 where the price bounced back down and returned to the range of the past week.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Yesterday's price action gave us a signal that there is a mood in the markets and Dax has tendencies to continue higher. Considering that yesterday's breakout led to a retest of another S/R zone, we can understand this as the confirmation of the sentiment continuation probability. The major US indices futures also play in our favour as they gain in the morning trading hours and the correlation with Dax is often quite likely.
Dax daily: 23 Jun 2020Dax gave us a fake signal yesterday when it faked-out below the 12 151 S/R zone. The price very quickly returned to the consolidation range of the past week, levelled between 12 151 and 12 494. The daily range was relatively standard and we haven't even seen much volatility.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMI reports
Today's session hypothesis
Considering the fact Dax hasn't moved away from its consolidation range lasting one week already, we have no reasons changing the outlook. The Statistical Application also doesn't generate any probabilities in these situations and Dax awaits any decisive catalyst that will propel the price development. This could be today's PMI reports from the Eurozone or volatility in the main US Indices. These appear to be on the crossroad between the artificial positivism of re-opening the US economy, as created by Trump's administration, and a fear of the upcoming second wave of the pandemic. We now need to monitor the price action but mainly the breakout from the current consolidation.
Dax daily: 22 Jun 2020The last session of the past week turned out well for sellers. They managed to get down to a support level at 12 151 where we saw a slight correction before Dax broke to the downside and closed the week lower at 12 112.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 151
Support: 11 829
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
After a long time, today's session opened without a weekend gap. Dax hasn't moved anywhere yet to determine the initial directional push. Following Friday's session outcome, we slightly favour bears now. Their target could now be the previous fair value from 15 Jun, laying at 11 829. Our upper S/R zone will certainly be an interesting one as it could be a decisive factor between buyers and sellers. Should the price return back above, Dax would trade in the same consolidation range where it was last week.
Dax daily: 19 Jun 2020Thursday's session was quite interesting. We anticipated that Dax was likely to trade in its range and the resistance at 12 494 really served to just reject the upward price move. It is apparent this S/R zone is valid and those who had limit orders around this level can pride themselves with nice profits. Dax then moved to the middle of the range and we start fresh from the same levels, again.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Friday's session starts near the previous day and the first trading hour is dominated by buyers. It seems that bulls are likely to target 12 494 yet again and we stick to our yesterday's bias. We anticipate the retest and/or breakout of the nearest S/R zones and we incline more towards 12 494's side. If buyers don't want to go above there, the support at 12 151 isn't much stronger.
