Sterlinglong — Trading Ideas on TradingView

reading the right side of the chart : GBPCHF 25 Sept Yesterday's trading range was 70-72 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 102 pips. In a day when there was a risk event (political) and there was a stop hunt spike during the London session, it is indeed a bizarre day. After a "missed" day, I always anticipate a price expansion within 36 hours. I am still bullish on Sterling hence I am still waiting and looking for a low of the week anchor which I hope would form around these price levels 1.22700-1.22850. There is an ongoing risk for this plan which is Brexit Brexit Brexit. There is no risk event for Switzerland today.

Sterling will recover soon British Pound is expected to have its new low at the trend line or very close to it. If you have a sell on this pair then your tp should be at 1.215-1.22

Falling Wedge Indicates a Break to Upside While a falling wedge is forming over the past few weeks, the UK was just granted an extension until October of this year ensuring that we are all continued to be bored to death by it until then. In all likelihood, there will be a general election before then and perhaps a new government controlled by Jeremy Corbyn. God knows what he'll do with this mess. At any rate, this gives the UK and the pound much breathing room and a new incentive to be long on it which is my new general view of the pair.

Macron Gains Spanish and Belgian Support for No Deal Brexit Macron convinced the Spanish and Belgians in supporting his stance on not allowing a long extension beyond April 12th, just five trading days away, without a meaningful signal by the UK Parliament in asserting what kind of deal they want to leave the EU. While Macron did suggest a short extension beyond the 12th, it is not clear when this would be. What is clear is that UK PM May will not get her June 30th deadline, but this gives traders little insight on how much time they'll have for another run up to another potential exit date beyond the fact that it will be before June 30th. Another possibility is May 22 which the EU offered May weeks ago, but only if Parliament passed the Brexit deal last week, which it failed to do. The EU said the UK could still seek a longer delay, but one that would likely be many months and require the UK to participate in European parliamentary elections. Again, France would reject this because they too do not want the UK to participate in EU elections as the UKs absence will significantly increase French voting power in the legislative body. So until next week ¯\(°_°)/¯

Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost Here Havn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade. From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.

Brexit Just Won’t Go Away; For the Pound, That’s a Good Thing Brexit. Its kind of like a bad tattoo in that it never goes away, yet was almost immediately regrettable. Unfortunately that continues to be the case this week with Prime Minister May meeting with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to etch out a deal for the House of Commons to pass her bill which has already been rejected three times. Much ink has been spilled and many black pixels dedicated to the analysis of Brexit and forecast of where things are headed. In spite of this, we know just as much about where we will be on April 12th as we did when the deadline was first announced. Moreover, the price of the pound to the US dollar is now nearly completely divorced from fundamentals and simply trading on the notion that a no deal Brexit will be avoided. But is this the case? And if so, to what degree is a deal priced in? One of the only non-political comments an observer could make on the cable chart to look for those former levels of resistance as support. 1.19 is about the lowest level of support while 1.26 to 1.27 could also be interesting support levels if the price moves down in the aftermath of a Brexit deal as a no deal Brexit would probably test the former levels seen in 2016 and 2017: Vote for the Brexit that promises least; It will be the least disappointing Will the pound break through previous levels of resistance and form them as support, or will it crash 20 percent like the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum? Hard to say at this point as the website oddschecker.com asserts the chances have increased that UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will become the next UK PM. Its shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. They are now the expected favorites to replace May after Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1. While the chances of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister continues to go up, it is still yet to be determined if there will be a general election and if the Conservatives can get May to resign as leader as she had promised. The question remains though when any of these potential outcomes would come to fruition, although speculation abounds that it would have to be after an extension to the April 12th deadline. Although the pound has been highly volatile since the British voted to exit the EU in June 2016, it is important to keep in mind that the pair reached a low of 1.18 in October which has since risen to above 1.31.

GBPUSD Unsure, But Brexit Votes Edges Closer to No Deal With all of the indicative votes failing in the House of Commons and PM May's deal looking increasingly unlikely to pass, the UK is now in serious jeopardy of an accidental crash out of the EU. The price of the pound does not reflect this pact and incredibly the historic 10-day volatility of the pound has dropped back down to relatively normal levels. I am still neutral to short (officially neutral) and there are several reasons why: 1) The UK still has two weeks for the House of Commons to come together and get a deal done. 2) May's vote could still pass the House of Commons. 3) May giving herself up to fall on her Brexit sword to get her deal passed indicates that is not willing to trade a no deal Brexit for her and the Conservative Party to maintain in power. Beyond these silver linings though, there are many more reasons to either stay neutral: 1) The sheer diversity of outcomes that could occur before April 12 is incredible including no deal, one of the many different versions of a deal, May's deal, a general election, May resigning, a renegotiation of the deal, another referendum, or a vote of no confidence. 2) Some of these are more possible than others, but the scale of the options creates extreme uncertainty. 3) Because of the uncertainty, trades beyond two weeks could be dramatically hit from a move in the opposite direction as a no deal would probably lead to a massive loss while a deal would result in a massive gain. There are even more reasons to be short. Those I will get into as time develops though since my view is increasing moving from neutral/short to short. More to come. If you would like to see some additional analysis, please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com

GBP/USD FIB C As you see on the Chart, GU created a double top at 1.2950. It´s between our FIB Region of 1.2905 - 1.2980. If we see the break of 1.3015, we may can see the upside really to 1.3350. Follow the arrows and be patient.