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BTCUSD Trend Analysis|Elliot Wave|ABC Correction|Weekly S/R|PAEvening Traders, Today’s analysis – BTCUSD – trading in a probable ABC correction, with a lower high yet to be confirmed, further data will confirm trend direction. Points to consider, - Weekly S/R (key support) - Bearish PA - .50 Fibonacci (bearish retest) - Bear trend confirmation (weekly S/R) BTCUSD’s trend will be dictated on the weekly S/R, currently holding but a break will confirm a lower low. Current price action is considered bearish, testing the .50 Fibonacci where a rejection will confirm a bearish test and establish a lower high. The Elliot wave theory suggests BTC is in a corrective phase. The validity holds true if characteristics of an Elliot wave are present in price action. For example, wave 4 characteristics is complex price action, this was reflected in BTC’s recent wave 4. Overall, in my opinion, further price action will determine BTC’s trend. Confirmation of a bear trend will be on a break of weekly S/R. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “Reaching any goal in trading requires specific domain knowledge and technical skills. But then, after that, it's all mindset management. Yet most people ignore that —they automatically think they have that last part all figured out, and it's a mistake.” ― Yvan Byeajee
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
4
AUDCAD Weekly S/R| Volume Climax| Bearish Divergence| Local S/RRepost** Evening Traders, Second analysis update – AUDCAD- Price testing weekly S/R after an oversold bounce play, correction at this point is likely as this is a technical trade location. Points to consider, - Oversold bounce play - Weekly S/R Pivot (Resistance) - Local S/R Flip Retest - Technical Bearish Divergence - Evident Volume Climax AUDUSD had an oversold bounce play from swing low, currently respecting Weekly S/R which allows us to have a bearish bias. The immediate local S/R has been flipped; price retesting and holding this level will confirm an S/R Flip retest. Price action has a technical bearish divergence; this indicates immediate weakness in the market however validation will be upon an impulse down. The volume profile has an evident volume climax, this usually marks temporary tops in a trend. This further adds to the probability of an immediate correction. Overall, in my opinion, AUDCAD is a valid short with defined risk above weekly S/R. Price action is to be used upon discretion/management of trade. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
2
NZDJPY| Range High| Bearish PA| 200 DMAEvening Traders, Analysis on - NZDJPY –any rallies are to be sold into on the daily, technical points to consider. - Range high deviation - Valid bearish retest - Bearish PA - 200 DMA Support Price breaking impulsively from range high is quite bearish; a weak bounce will signify follow through to the downside. Price action is likely to put in a bearish retest, allowing short sellers to step in. The short will only be negated if price takes out recent high. The immediate target is range low; this area is of confluence with the 200 DMA. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “All statistics have outliers. Money management, therefore, is key to the process of good trading.” ― Yvan Byeajee
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
KNCBTC Dynamic Support|Bullish Div| Weekly S/R| Declining VolumeEvening Traders, Today’s analysis – KNCBTC- valid long into local S/R, following technical points to consider, - Dynamic support holding - Daily S/R (Support) - Local S/R (Resistance) - Oscillators Technical Divergence - Declining Volume KNCBTC is in a technical pivot point on the chart, price action is consider bullish as it is holding daily S/R. Local S/R is the immediate resistance, price is likely to get rejected here for a bearish retest. Both oscillators are diverging, indicating strength in the immediate term. KNCBTC’s bullish scenario will be intact as long as the recent low is maintained. Taking it out will break the trend making weekly S/R target. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “In order to succeed, you first have to be willing to experience failure.” ― Yvan Byeajee
KLong
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
XTZBTC Range Support| Bullish PA| .618 Fibonacci|S/R Flip RetestEvening Traders, Today’s analysis – XTZBTC – reclaiming its range, a retest of support will allow for a long entry with defined risk. Points to consider, - Immediate trend bullish (consecutive higher lows) - Range support confluence (.618 Fibonacci) - Range resistance target - Oscillator neutral - Volume below average - Long retest (risk defined) XTZBTC’s immediate trend is bullish with consecutive higher highs and higher lows. This gives us a bias that any impulse sells and oversold conditions are for buying. The range support is a key level that has been reclaimed; price is likely to retest this level as it is in confluence with the .618 Fibonacci. Range resistance will be the immediate target, breaking this level will be very bullish, continuing the trend. Oscillators are both neutral, remaining above their respective 50 level; this indicates bullish momentum in the market. The immediate volume is below average, this must increase for continued follow through, price action needs to be back with conviction. Overall, in my opinion, XTZBTC is probable to retest local support which will allow for a long entry with defined risk. Price action breaking below range support will negate the trade. What are your thoughts? Thank you for following my work! And remember, “Ultimately, consistent profitability comes down to choosing between the discomforts you feel when you follow your plan and the urge to let yourself be captures ( and ruled) by your emotions.” ― Yvan Byeajee
Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
BTCUSD Long|Dynamic Support|Local Resistance|Apex|Low volume Evening Traders, Today’s trade analysis – BTCUSD traveling into its apex, a long trade is valid upon breaking local resistance. Points to consider, - Macro trend bearish - Dynamic support respected - Local resistance converging - RSI respecting trend (overlying resistance) - Volume below average - Valid long with defined risk BTCUSD’s macro trend is bearish with consecutive lower highs; this gives us a bearish bias on the overall market. This long trend is based solely on interim level and price action. The dynamic support has been respected enough to solidify its significance, price breaking below will negate the trade. Local resistance is converging with the dynamic support; this places the market in an apex where a break will be imminent. The RSI is respecting its trend line with overlying resistance, a break will coincide with price action. The volume is trading below average; this is an indication of an influx as price is at key interim levels. Overall, in my opinion, a long is ONLY valid if price breaks above resistance, price action must show strength. The formation resembles the psychology of a probable ascending triangle which only validates breaking its resistance. A break below the key dynamic support will negate the trade set up with the immediate target then being daily support. What are your thoughts? Thank you for following my work! And remember, “Take your profits or someone else will take them for you.” – J.J. Evans
Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
5
Facebook Hidden Bullish Divergence|Range Resistance|Bull PennantEvening Traders, Today’s Analysis – Facebook – trading above range midpoint with a hidden bullish divergence , immediate target - range resistance. Points to consider, - Trend bull pennant - Range support respected - Range resistance target - RSI hidden bullish divergence - Stochastics above 50 Facebooks trend is forming a probable bull pennant above range mid-point; this is considered a true pennant ONLY when price breaks out north. The range support has been respected multiple times; breaking this will put bears in control of the trend. Facebooks immediate target is range resistance, a very key level, breaking above will initiate a Blue Sky Breakout. The RSI confirms a hidden bullish divergence ; price has made a higher low whilst the RSI has made a lower low. Both oscillators need to remain above 50 for continued strength in the market. Overall, in my opinion, range resistance is the current target, breaking the pennant north will validate the pattern and the target will then become more probable. Breaking the ATH will put Facebook in price discovery mode What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Hope is bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer
FLong
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
7
SPY Bullish or Bearish ? Trend Channel|200DMA|Pivot PointEvening Traders, Quick Analysis on the SPY - trend is still bullish until the channel is broken. Points to consider, - Channel Resistance Respected - 200 DMA Confluence - RSI Support - Stochastic Momentum Down SPY is in a technical channel testing support that is in confluence with the Daily 200 MA, a bounce here is probable. Breaking support will mean breaking market structure, SPY will then have bigger problems The RSI is technically on support sitting above 50, breaking this will indicate weakness in the market. Overall, in my opinion, the uptrend is still intact, the market remains bullish until the channel is broken Hope this helps! And remember, “Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen.” – Doug Gregory
AMEX:SPY
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
6
BTCUSD Halving Done, What now? Bearish Retest| Range Median Evening Traders, Today’s Technical Analysis – BTCUSD- post halving, currently trading in a define range where a breakout at either ends will solidify a directional bias. Points to consider, - Bearish retest confirmation - Range Trading - Demand zone buy back - RSI higher lows - Stochastics above 50 - Volume climax Bitcoins recent bearish retest confirmed an S/R flip trading back into its range; this can be considered as a bull trap. Price is trading above range median as the demand zone has been bought up by the bulls; this is represented by the wicks. The RSI is trading with a higher low projection whilst the stochastics is above 50, momentum technically is stored in both directions, just need further confirmation. Volume climax is evident, marking the temporary bottom. The decline is volume is also very noticeable, indication of in influx. Overall, in my opinion, a breakout in either direction of this range will give a valid scalp trade with defined risk. The way price action develops at either end of this range will help with the directional bias. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Fear, inherently, is not meant to limit you. Fear is the brain’s way of saying that there is something important for you to overcome.” ― Yvan Byeajee
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
2
CURA Structural Support| Resistance Confluence| Declining VolumeEvening Traders, Today’s Technical Analysis – CURA – holding a key support with the current volume clearly declining, a move will be imminent with a subsequent influx. Points to consider, - Macro trend bearish - Resistance confluence - Structural support being tested - RSI above 50 - Stochastics projected down - Declining volume CURA’s overall trend is bearish with consecutive lower highs, currently recovering from oversold conditions that needs momentum follow through. There is resistance confluence with the .50 Fibonacci and the 100 EMA; price needs to trade above it to establish a higher high for the local trend to remain true. Structural support is being tested; current candle closes have been bearish, indicating weakness in the bulls. The RSI is trading above 50, likely to break if current support does not hold. The stochastics on the other hand is at a key level, if the higher low projection does not hold, the sell cross will increase momentum to the downside. Volume is declining; technically this leads to an influx at key trade locations. Overall, in my opinion, CURA needs to hold structural support for a probable higher low. With the declining volume at support, this is an indication of an impulsive move. If support breaks then the macro trend is still intact. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Ultimately, consistent profitability comes down to choosing between the discomforts you feel when you follow your plan and the urge to let yourself be captures ( and ruled) by your emotions.” ― Yvan Byeajee
C
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
USDCAD Impulse Move| Clear Range| Structural Resistance Evening traders Today’s technical analysis - USDCAD - rebounding at a technical level after and impulse move down, price is likely to test structural resistance Points to consider, - relief rally after impulse sell off - 200 MA current resistance - Local support retest (higher low) - RSI above 50 not oversold - Stochastics projected up - Increasing volume (impulse likely) USDCAD’s rally is in context with its recent sell off into structural support, a key technical level triggering buy pressure pushing price up. The next resistance line is the 200 MA, price is likely to respect this level. A retest of local support is probable as this will establish a relative higher low. The RSI is above 50 but not officially oversold, indicating that the move up may not be over. Stochastics on the other hand is in the upper regions where it can stay trading, momentum is up until a sell cross comes to fruition. Volume impulses are evident however no significant volume climax nodes, this can be an indication that the temporary top is not in yet. Overall, I’m my opinion, USDCAD is likely to respect the 200MA, putting in a higher low at local support before another impulse into structural resistance. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Genuine acceptance that there will be losses on your way to market success will greatly decrease the hurt when they eventually come.” ― yvan Byeajee
Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
Silver Lower Highs| Key Support| Apex| Break imminent!Evening Traders! Today’s update will be on the traditional store of value instrument – SILVER – which has been putting in consecutive lower highs, a well-defined resistance line. Points to consider, - Bear trend with consecutive lower highs - Key support held - Resistance line break imminent - EMA’s holding support - Stochastics in upper regions - RSI currently neutral - Volume below average Consecutive lower highs are imminent as bears are in current control, trend will be negated if key trade locations are broken. Structural support held, which is in confluence with the .618 Fibonacci level, signalling that buy pressure is strong. Staunched resistance has been established, a break attempt will be imminent when Silver travels closer into its apex. The EMA’s are currently holding Silver as support, does looks weak at current given time. The stochastics is in the upper regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the downside. The RSI, on the other hand is quite neutral with no clear direction. Volume is currently below average, an increase is likely upon a break of key trade locations, either the support and or current trend line resistance. Overall, in my opinion, Silver is closing in on its apex; a move will be imminent, structural support is a strong area from a historic point of view. The staunched resistance trend line has been tested multiple times, the more times a resistance/support is tested, the more it’s likely to break. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “All statistics have outliers. Money management, therefore, is key to the process of good trading.” ― Yvan Byeajee
TVC:SILVER
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
BATBTC Equilibrium|200 MA Support|POC Resistance Hello Traders! Happy Monday, Today’s update will be on the good old BATBTC pairings where we have an equilibrium forming right above the .618 Fibonacci, will this formation serve as a continuation pattern to the down side, or a possible bull break? Points to consider, - Trend putting in a macro higher high - 200 MA and .618 are current support - POC strong resistance - Stochastics projected upwards - RSI respecting trend - Volume below average BATBTC is attempting at putting in a macro higher low, changing the structure will come to fruition when an established higher high is in place. The 200 MA and the .618 Fibonacci are in confluence serving a strong support level for BAT. The Point of Control is a major resistance level to close above as this will confirm a technical higher high. The stochastics are in lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. RSI is respecting its trend line, nearing its apex, a break will be imminent. Volume is however currently below average, must increase in the next couple days as the equilibrium comes to an end. Overall, in my opinion, a break in either direction is probable; a break bullish will confirm the macro higher low, thus confirming a trend change, BATBTC does need an influx of volume for continued follow through. What are your thoughts? Please comment a chart you’d like me to analyse =), And remember, “Reaching any goal in trading requires specific domain knowledge and technical skills. But then, after that, it's all mindset management. Yet most people ignore that —they automatically think they have that last part all figured out, and it's a mistake.” ― Yvan Byeajee
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
1
Volume Climax| Key Levels| Need Bull Volume Follow through!Hello Traders!, Welcome back! Today’s chart update will be on ICX, bulls have got very critical levels to break to maintain a bullish bias… Points to consider, - Price testing resistance - Rejection from major trend line - RSI coming into resistance - EMA’s holding price as support - Volume climax ICX is trying to maintain a bullish projection but there is not enough follow through from the bulls. Price harshly got rejected from trend line resistance, signalling strong sell pressure, a return to local support line is more probable. The stochastics is currently in the lower regions, can stay here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. RSI is coming into its apex, meaning a break is imminent, the direction of the break will dictate the direction of ICX. The EMA’s are currently holding price as support, this must stay true for the bullish bias as price tests critical levels. The recent volume climax signals that there are a lot of sellers at upper trend line resistance. Overall, in my opinion, ICX is more probable to return back to the local trend line as bull volume has not followed through. This will cool of all indicators such as the RSI before ICX has another attempt at breaking current resistance. What are your thoughts on ICX, can it maintain a bullish bias? Please leave a like and comment And remember, “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street.” – Jesse Livermore
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
3
BTCUSD Rising Wedge? Retest Of Local Support?Hello Traders! Today’s chart update will be on BTC’s short term projection on the hourly time frame. We have a potential rising wedge that needs to be confirmed with a third touch on the lower trend line. A break from this formation is bearish, if it plays out; we are more probable to test lower support, where the triple bottom was established. Points to consider - Price respecting trend line - Triple Bottom as lower support - Local resistance at $8690 region - Stochastics neutral - RSI respecting trend line - EMA’s giving price resistance - Volume is below average - VPVR, low volume of transactions between local and major structural resistance BTC with a high degree of probability could be forming a rising wedge that breaks down to a technical target of lower support, the triple bottom region. Price is respecting trend line, we need a third touch for confirmation which will put more merit on this wedge formation. Local resistance is a key area that needs to be broken for a bullish bias; if this level is broken we are technically more likely to reach major structural resistance as the VPVR shows very low levels of transaction between the two segments, in other words, low levels of resistance… The Stochastics is currently neutral, no clear direction of where momentum is stored. The RSI however is respecting its trend line; a bounce from here will help put more emphasis on the formation of the rising wedge. EMA’s both are giving price resistance at current given time, although does look weak as BTC has been trading through it. Volume on the other hand is also weak, below average; we need to see an increase in sustainable volume to confirm a break out whether it is a bullish or bearish break… IMO, a potential breakdown to local support, the triple bottom, is more likely if this holds to be a true rising wedge. If we break local resistance, then this formation will be negated, I will then have a bullish bias, BTC will more likely retest its major structural resistance. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment And Remember “The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliché, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.” – Victor Sperandeo
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
2
BTCUSD Critical Point | 200 MA | Oversold Bounce Hello Traders! Hope you all had a great weekend, Update on BTC recent developments on the daily chart , at a very critical point, trading below the 200 Moving Average, we need it to break and stay above this level to keep a bullish bias. Points to consider, - Daily trend bearish - Price testing structural resistance - Price below key moving average - Stochastics in lower region - RSI levels oversold - .50 Fibonacci acting as resistance - .618 Fibonacci is local support - EMA’s both resistance - Volume declining after climax Bitcoin is trading at a very key region, right below the 200 moving average which is in confluence with structural resistance and the .50 Fibonacci level. The daily trend is considered to be bearish as we have not put in a higher high coming out of the bearish descending triangle . The stochastics is well below in lower regions, flattening out; we need to see it show an upper projection. This can be in confluence with the RSI , being way oversold at current time; an oversold bounce may be probable to cool off both these indicators… The Fibonacci levels are quite interesting, the .50 as mentioned before is now a key resistance level , and the 200 moving average coming over price at current given time makes this area of very strong resistance. The .618 Fibonacci level is considered as local support, price is more probable to quickly reach this region if the 200 moving average does not get broken… Volume is declining after volume climax’s, this shows that a volatile move will be at play, we could see a Bart move back and over the 200 MA and or another flush down, to local support, the .618 Fibonacci level… What are your thoughts? Will BTC break this critical resistance level or flush down to local support? IMO it’s pretty risky at current given time, we don’t have a clear direction however, few indicators are over extended, thus a oversold bounce would be more probable… Please leave a like and comment, And remember “A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.” – Martin Schwartz
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
3