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Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by moonypto
2
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps? Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ? Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates Today’s Highlights - Overview of Meta Q3 FY24 - Recent business highlights - Key quotes from the earnings call - The potential decline of the creator economy 1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview Meta operates within two main segments FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp) RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software) Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024. Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users. Key Insights from Zuckerberg: -Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S. -Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally. -WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily. -Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users. -Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025). Advertising Performance: - Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2). - Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2). - Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58). - Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue. Financials - Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion. - FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion. - RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion. - Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q). - Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q). - FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y). - RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2). - EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y). - Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y). Balance Sheet - Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion - Long-term debt was $29 billion Guidance: - Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range - FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion) - FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion) Summary Analysis Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%. Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly. Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI. Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends. Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses. Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period. Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%. Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further. 2. Recent Business Highlights Meta Orion Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR): -Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers. -Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices. -Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes. -Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system. -High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing. - Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices. Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain. Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset. How AI Is Already Impacting Meta Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization. -Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction. -Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally. -Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms. Market Share Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment. 3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call CEO Mark Zuckerberg - On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.” -On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.” -On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.” -On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.” CFO Susan Li -On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time” -On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.” 4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close. -AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver. -Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content. -Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions. Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
NASDAQ:META
by moonypto
2
How Ride the AI Wave in 2025 | Top AI Stocks The AI boom is still making waves on Wall Street Over the past 15 months, investors have injected more than $ 5 billion into tech sector funds. This surge was fueled by three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, coupled with Donald Trump's presidential victory, which led investors to pour over $140 billion into the stock market, hoping tax reforms would boost corporate profits. A significant portion of this activity has been driven by the growing interest in artificial intelligence, with AI driven companies leading a remarkable 25% rally in the S&P 500 this year. Nvidia (NVDA), a key player in the AI sector, has soared 149% in the past year, while major tech firms like Microsoft (MSFT) and its collaboration with OpenAI, and Google’s (GOOG) Gemini project, have also contributed to the rise in stock prices. The AI market is expected to expand from approximately $540 billion last year to over $1.8 trillion by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% through 2032. In the final weeks of his presidency, Joe Biden's administration introduced new regulations to block the export of US-made semiconductors to adversarial nations, including Russia and China. This move is part of the ongoing AI arms race, with the US aiming to maintain its lead in manufacturing the chips essential for powering AI technology. AI Stocks: The Only ‘Bubble’ You Want to Be In North America held the largest share of the global AI market in 2023, accounting for nearly 37%. Europe, Asia Pacific (APAC), and Latin America followed with shares of 25.5%, 24%, and 13.6%, respectively. Whoever controls AI holds the power and the same is true in the corporate world. AI related stocks, such as Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Nvidia, delivered triple digit returns and led the market in 2024. Growing investor interest has also made it easier to trade AI focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which offer exposure to broader industry themes rather than individual companies. However, performance can vary. For instance, the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) and the Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) have shown comparable results since 2020, consistently outperforming the broader market. Meanwhile, the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY) has underperformed compared to the S&P 500. So, how can you identify the top AI stocks when certain ETFs are lagging? This is where the Quant Rating System comes in. Quant Ratings combine proprietary computer processing technology with "quantamental" analysis, allowing you to filter out the noise and focus on AI stocks with strong fundamentals that are expected to grow earnings at an above average rate. Leading AI Companies Worldwide Major tech giants like Amazon (AMZN), Google, Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and IBM (IBM) have invested billions into AI research to secure a dominant position in this highly profitable space. Whether it's backing high-potential startups like MSFT’s $11 billion stake in OpenAI, or supplying crucial AI hardware such as Nvidia's (NVDA) graphic processing units (GPUs), these companies are striving to stay ahead of competitors. While generative AI tools like ChatGPT are undeniably shaping the global economy, the potential for significant returns from AI stocks is more nuanced. For instance, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped over 20% from its all-time high in December, receiving a "hold" rating from Seeking Alpha's Quant system and analysts across Wall Street as of January 9, 2025. Even Nvidia, despite a strong performance in 2024, has seen its stock show signs of stagnation. Other AI stocks are showing signs of potential overvaluation. For example, SoundHound AI (SOUN) recently dropped more than 16%, with analysts highlighting concerns over its unsustainable valuation given its weak fundamentals. 2025 Top AI Stocks The hype in Silicon Valley can make it challenging to distinguish between AI stocks with long-term potential and those that are overhyped Our data driven Quant system uses advanced computer processing and proprietary algorithms to analyze thousands of stocks in real time across a range of metrics like value, growth, profitability, EPS revisions, and momentum. To find the top performing AI stocks, I analyzed securities from three leading AI focused ETFs Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO), and Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ). From this analysis, I selected six top-performing stocks—three largecap and three small-to-medium-cap (SMID)—which represent the diverse opportunities in the AI space. These stocks, both from tech companies providing AI solutions and non-tech firms utilizing AI to enhance productivity, boast an average levered free cash flow margin of about 18.6% and have returned an average of 60% more than the past 12 months. 1. Twilio Inc Market Capitalization $16.6B Twilio, a cloud communications company, has returned nearly 51% over the past year and ranks second in the Top Internet Services and Infrastructure sector, just behind Kingsoft Cloud Holdings. The company’s growth has been driven by stronger revenues, reduced losses, increased cash flow, and the completion of a high-profile ETF investor Cathie Wood’s stake sale. Twilio’s strong Q3’24 earnings suggest it’s well-positioned to capitalize on the growing AI trend well into 2025, with its stock more than doubling since May. Like many cloud computing companies, Twilio, based in San Francisco, gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic but initially struggled with high expenses and slow revenue growth. However, the surge in demand for generative AI, particularly through Twilio's CustomerAI platform which leverages large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) to analyze customer data has played a key role in its remarkable recovery. TWLO Revisions, Momentum, and Valuation Over the past 90 days, Twilio has seen a remarkable 23 upward revisions to its earnings per share (EPS) and 27 revisions to its revenue projections from analysts, signaling a strong financial rebound. This turnaround is reflected in its ‘A’ Momentum Score, with six-month and nine-month price performances of 93.5% and 81.3%, respectively—both figures vastly outperforming the sector medians by over 1000%. As a result, Twilio has nearly doubled the performance of the S&P 500 in recent months. Twilio also demonstrates solid growth prospects, with a forward EBITDA growth rate of 50.6% (783% higher than the sector median), year-over-year operating cash flow growth of 520.8% (3,348.45% above the sector median), and an impressive levered free cash flow margin of 107% (603% above the sector median). However, its average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30x indicates that Twilio trades at a premium compared to its peers, nearly 20% higher than the sector median. 2. Celestica Inc Market Capitalization $12B Celestica has seen a remarkable 255% increase in its stock price over the past year, driven by its strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure manufacturing. The company has carved out a niche in producing networking switches for data centers, and its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment, which makes up 67% of total revenue, has grown 42% year-over-year as tech companies invest more in AI-powered data centers. Its Q3 '24 results highlighted a 22% increase in revenue to $2.5 billion and record adjusted EPS of $1.04. CLS Valuation, Momentum, and Growth Celestica stands out for its attractive valuation, even with impressive returns in 2024. With a forward price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87, the stock appears undervalued compared to its peers. It boasts an ‘A+’ Momentum Grade, having received six upward EPS revisions and eight revenue revisions from analysts in the past 90 days. Its Growth Grade has improved significantly, rising from ‘C+’ to ‘B+’ due to forward EPS growth of 49% and year-over-year diluted EPS growth of 88%, both significantly outperforming the sector median. 3. DocuSign Market Capitalization $18.3B DocuSign, known for its electronic signature services, has embraced AI in innovative ways, particularly by adding new AI features to streamline contract agreement processes. These AI-driven tools have helped the company’s stock surge more than 21% following its impressive Q3 '24 earnings, and the growth trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as DocuSign expands into new markets, both domestically and in Europe. As SA Analyst Noah’s Arc Capital Management notes, DocuSign's AI features have proven invaluable for businesses, simplifying the often complex task of reviewing and managing contracts. DOCU Growth, Valuation, and Profitability DocuSign has demonstrated exceptional growth, including an ‘A+’ EBIT growth rate of 239.21% (10,710% above the sector median) and year-over-year diluted EPS growth of 1,852.2% (24,971% higher than its peers). While its overall ‘C+’ Growth Score is somewhat tempered by a low forward return on equity growth forecast of -29.58%, the company’s valuation looks compelling. Its trailing and forward P/E GAAP ratios of 18.6 and 17.9 are 38.6% and 41.5% lower than the sector medians, suggesting that DocuSign's shares are undervalued. Furthermore, its ‘A+’-Rated PEG ratio of 0.01, a 99% difference from the sector median, points to a strong value proposition for investors. 4. FARO Technologies Market Capitalization $478.2M FARO Technologies, based in Lake Mary, Florida, specializes in 3D measurement technology and has leveraged AI to establish itself as a leader in "smart factories" and "intelligent automation." Its scanning technology has been instrumental in improving productivity and accelerating production timelines. The company has seen nearly 54% growth over the past six months, benefiting from the expanding global 3D scanning market, projected to grow to $11.85 billion by 2032 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.11%. In Q3, FARO reported $0.21 of nonGAAP EPS, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of exceeding expectations. This success is part of the company’s strategic plan, which includes the launch of a new line of laser scanners. FARO Growth and Valuation FARO's growth metrics stand out, with forward EBIT growth of 112.48%, 1,410.71% higher than the sector median, and an astonishing year-over-year levered free cash flow growth of 24,214.19%, 164,037% above the sector median. The company's forward EBITDA growth of 42.76%, 639.9% higher than the sector median, indicates robust growth ahead. FARO's stock is undervalued according to its metrics. It has an EV/sales ratio of 1.41, 59% lower than the sector median, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.9, 45% below the sector median, making it an attractive investment at its current valuation. 5. Proto Labs Market Capitalization $897 M Proto Labs, a Minnesota-based company, specializes in on-demand manufacturing solutions, enabling businesses to avoid the costs associated with stocking large quantities of products. Despite a recent dip of around 16% in share price, Proto Labs remains a promising investment due to its strong profitability and its impressive cash flow of $24.8 million in Q3 2024, the highest since its 2020 acquisition of 3D printing company 3D Hubs. Proto Labs has also seen five upward revisions to its EPS and five to its revenue over the last 90 days, signaling stronger-than-expected growth prospects. The company is positioned to benefit from the strong sector tailwinds of the global print-on-demand market, which was valued at $6.18 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.8% through 2030. PRLB Valuation Proto Labs boasts an impressive long-term growth rate of 25%, 119% higher than the sector's 11.4%, and a year-over-year capital expenditure (capex) growth of 74.4%, significantly outpacing the sector's 4.3%. This suggests that Proto Labs is reinvesting a large portion of its cash back into its operations to fuel future growth. The stock is fairly valued with a forward PEG ratio of 0.06, indicating that it is significantly undervalued compared to its peers, at a 49.3% discount from the sector. Its price-to-book ratio of 1.36 is also an attractive metric, 52.83% lower than the sector median. However, its ‘D’-rated forward and trailing P/E ratios of 39.9 and 48.8, respectively, reflect its recent price decline, leading to an overall Valuation Grade of ‘C’. 6. Freshworks Market Capitalization $4.9 B Freshworks, a cloud based SaaS company founded in India, is a strong candidate for a "buy the dip" opportunity. After a rough 2024, shares in Freshworks have begun to rebound, thanks to increasing demand for its AI-enabled software solutions. The company serves over 68,000 customers, including global brands like American Express, Shopify, and Airbus. Its Q3’24 financial results were filled with positive indicators: - 22% YoY revenue growth to $186.6M - 21% YoY increase in free cash flow - Raised full year guidance - Announced a $400M buyback plan - Maintains a debtfree balance sheet with strong liquidity Freshworks also announced a 13% reduction in headcount, which is expected to improve margins further, in addition to the impact of its share repurchase program. The company is poised to benefit from the booming AI SaaS market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% by 2031. FRSH Growth, Valuation, and Momentum Freshworks boasts an impressive A-’ Growth Score, underpinned by its solid revenue growth and forward revenue expansion of 17.8%, a 221.8% difference from the sector median. The company also has a 3-5 year long-term CAGR of 27.5%, significantly outpacing the sector by 824.2%. Its year-over-year capital expenditure growth stands at 83.3%, signaling reinvestment in future growth. In terms of valuation, Freshworks has a forward PEG of 1.51, suggesting that the stock is available at a slight discount to its peers. Similar to Proto Labs, its higher-than-average P/E ratios are likely due to its recent dip of around 9.3% over the past month. One of the standout features of Freshworks’ stock is its ‘A’ Revisions Score, which reflects 17 EPS upward revisions and 16 revenue upward revisions in the past three months. As the AI frenzy continues to dominate Wall Street, some of the valuations of major AI driven companies may be edging into overinflated territory. However,so far my Quant System highlights six ‘Strong Buy’ stocks that still exhibit strong fundamentals. These companies have, on average, risen about 60% over the past year, showcasing strong bullish momentum and solid valuations. For investors looking to integrate AI into their portfolios without succumbing to the hype, these stocks present a promising opportunity Which AI stock are you loading and why?
NYSE:CLSLong
by moonypto
2
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
SLong
by moonypto
2
Roblox | Where Kids Thrive, Stocks Pump and Gamers High FiveRoblox Economics: Teaching 13 Year Olds How to Out Monetize Wall Street RBLX surges 50% since our first signal so let’s explore its potential upside From PlayStation to Paychecks: How Roblox Gamified the Economy From hosting virtual concerts with millions of participants to offering user generated games rivaling major studios, Roblox has evolved into a cultural phenomenon nearly 20 years after its PC debut. It is reshaping the social gaming and entertainment landscape. CEO Baszucki Says Roblox Saves Lives; Haters Say It Destroys Wallets! Founder CEO David Baszucki shared: “Our mission is to connect 1 billion people with optimism and civility. This resonates deeply with me, as several parents have told me their children’s lives were saved through connections made on Roblox” Roblox was already a standout in last year’s Future 50 ranking for its unique value. Currently, over 3 million creators develop games and experiences using Roblox Studio, its proprietary development tool. The platform’s economy thrives on its in-game currency, Robux, rewarding creators based on user spending. For instance, Uplift Games, a Roblox-exclusive studio, supports a 60 person team. Two core growth drivers -Content loop:High quality content attracts users, who then inspire the creation of even more content. - Social loop:Increased participation enhances the platform's appeal to new users. Exploring Roblox’s Expanding Universe -User Generated Content (UGC):Like YouTube, Roblox empowers creators of all skill levels to share their visions. - A Growing Metaverse:Beyond gaming, it hosts virtual events and educational activities, positioning itself as a hub for social interaction. -Broadening Demographics: Once dominated by young users, Roblox now attracts older audiences. In Q3 2024, users aged 13+ made up 60% of its user base, up from 57% the previous year. Roblox by the Numbers -Daily Active Users (DAUs):89 million, up 27% YoY, with strong growth in APAC (+37%) and a 59% rise in Japan. -User Engagement:20.7 billion hours logged, growing 29% YoY. -Q3 Bookings:$1.1 billion (+34% YoY), reflecting robust user spending. -Regional Bookings:North America (62%) and Europe (19%) dominate. The October 2023 PlayStation launch doubled Roblox’s console presence, boosting both users and bookings. To attract console studios, Roblox announced a 70% revenue share for items priced $49.99 or higher, aiming to encourage premium content. Challenges and Opportunities -Short Seller Allegations: In October, Hindenburg Research accused Roblox of inflating metrics and neglecting child safety, highlighting its ongoing unprofitability. Despite initial concerns, the claims lacked substantial evidence. -Profitability Issues: Operating margins remain negative (-30%), with high infrastructure, safety, and AI costs. Expense management is critical for turning a profit. - Advertising Growth: Partnerships with DoubleVerify and Shopify pave the way for in-platform ads and merchandise. With users averaging over two hours daily, this represents untapped potential. -Virtual Economy Improvements: Enhanced discovery features increased payers by 30% to 19 million, with a 6% rise in bookings per DAU. - Cash Flow Strength: Free cash flow hit a record $218 million (+266% YoY), driven by efficient cost management. - Stock-Based Compensation (SBC): SBC equals 29% of revenue, diluting shares (~3% annually). While common in tech, this high level raises concerns for long-term investors. Future Outlook Roblox raised its FY bookings guidance to $4.36 billion (+24% YoY). Achieving sustainable growth while tackling profitability challenges, content moderation, and investor dilution will determine its long-term success. The company’s ability to navigate these issues will shape its legacy in gaming and beyond.
NYSE:RBLXLong
by moonypto
Oracle’s Cloud Conquest|Climbing Mount Hyperscaler with AI BootsWill Oracle Cloud Infrastructure aka OCI Emerge as the 4th Hyperscaler? Although OCI hasn’t yet reached the scale of the top three cloud giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), it’s rapidly advancing, much like d’Artagnan joining the musketeers. Riding the AI wave, Oracle’s Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment surged by 52% to $2.4 billion in Q2. Over the past year, OCI has overtaken Salesforce and IBM, surpassing even Snowflake. Its next target, Alibaba Cloud, grew just 7% YoY to $4.2 billion in Q3. However, this impressive growth comes at a price—Oracle’s capital expenditure is expected to double in FY25 to meet AI demand. Oracle Q2 FY25 Highlights Key Metrics -Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): A measure of future revenue from existing contracts. RPO grew 50% YoY, with Cloud RPO jumping nearly 80%, reflecting strong momentum. Sequentially, total RPO declined slightly from $99 billion in Q1 to $97 billion in Q2. 39% of this is expected to convert into revenue over the next year. -Cloud Services Revenue: Up 24% YoY to $5.9 billion: -IaaS: Grew 52% YoY to $2.4 billion, up from 45% in Q1, driven by OCI adoption for high-performance workloads and multi-cloud deployments. -SaaS: Increased 10% YoY to $3.5 billion, with stable demand for cloud-based ERP, HCM, and CRM solutions. - Fusion Cloud ERP: Gained 18% YoY to $0.9 billion. -NetSuite Cloud ERP: Rose 19% YoY to $0.9 billion. - Total Revenue: Increased 9% YoY to $14.1 billion, missing estimates by $20 million. -Cloud Services & License Support: Up 12% YoY to $10.8 billion, with cloud services alone growing 24% YoY to $5.9 billion. -Cloud License & On-Premise: Up 1% YoY to $1.2 billion. -Hardware: Declined 4% YoY to $0.7 billion. -Services: Dropped 3% YoY to $1.3 billion. -Margins: Gross margin held steady at 71%, while operating margin improved 2 percentage points to 30%. -Non-GAAP EPS:$1.47, missing estimates by $0.01 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet -Operating Cash Flow (TTM):** $20.3 billion (+19% YoY). - Cash & Cash Equivalents:** $11.3 billion. -Debt: $88.6 billion. Q3 FY25 Guidance - Revenue growth of 7%-9% YoY (10% expected). - Cloud revenue projected to grow 25%-27% YoY, accelerating further. Analysis and Insights 1.Momentum in Cloud Infrastructure Oracle’s focus on AI workloads is paying off, with major clients like Meta, Uber, and TikTok driving GPU consumption up by 336%. The company also unveiled the largest AI supercomputer, featuring 65,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs. However, a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could pose a $2 billion revenue risk. 2.Growth Despite Missed Targets While revenue and adjusted earnings missed estimates due to slower SaaS growth, cloud revenue of $5.9 billion was just shy of the $6 billion forecast. Shares dipped post-earnings but remain up nearly 70% year-to-date, exceeding most investors' expectations 3.Capex Surge for AI Capital expenditures reached $4 billion this quarter, a sharp increase from under $7 billion in FY24. Management expects FY25 Capex to double, driven by AI demand, resulting in negative free cash flow ($2.7 billion used) for the quarter. These investments align with industry trends but may stretch the balance sheet. 4.Expanding Multi Cloud Partnerships Oracle’s partnerships with Meta, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud enhance its relevance in multi-cloud environments. These alliances enable seamless workload interoperability and help Oracle compete effectively while broadening its customer base. 5.Balance Sheet Challenges Oracle’s net debt of $80 billion, despite robust $20 billion annual operating cash flow, restricts its ability to pursue aggressive growth strategies or acquisitions. Rising Capex could further limit flexibility. 6.Bullish Long-Term Outlook Management projects total cloud revenue to exceed $25 billion in FY25, fueled by AI demand and OCI’s competitive positioning. Analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s prospects, particularly in multi-cloud ecosystems and generative AI workloads. This explains why Larry Ellison envisions Oracle’s data centers expanding tenfold
NYSE:ORCL
by moonypto
The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY) In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared. The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations. In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations. Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock. Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting. This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise. In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week. Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting. With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by moonypto
2
Nvidia Stock Soars On Blowout GuidanceSoaring demand for the chips needed to train the latest wave of generative artificial intelligence systems such as ChatGPT led Nvidia to issue a revenue forecast far ahead of Wall Street expectations, prompting a surge in its stock price in after market trading. The US chipmaker on Wednesday said it expected sales to reach 11bn dollar in the three months to the end of July, more than 50 per cent ahead of the 7.2bn dollar analysts had been expecting and confirming its position as the biggest short-term beneficiary of the AI race that has broken out in the technology industry. The forecast fuelled a 27 per cent leap in Nvidia’s shares, which had already more than doubled since the start of the year, and lifted its stock market value to a record 960 bn dollar. Jensen Huang, chief executive, said the company was “significantly increasing our supply to meet surging demand” for its entire family of data centre chips, including the H100, a product launched this year that was designed to handle the demands of so-called large language models such as OpenAI’s GPT4. The race in the tech industry to develop larger AI models has led some customers to worry privately about a shortage of H100 chips, which only went on sale earlier this year. However, Nvidia’s $4.28bn in sales to data centre customers in its latest quarter topped even the most optimistic analysts’ forecasts, and the company said there had been strong sales of both the H100 and its A100 chips, based on its previous chip architecture. Nvidia’s forecast noted a potential doubling of sales to data centre customers in three months, even though data centre sales were running at an annualised rate of $17bn in the opening quarter of this year. Growth is coming from customers across the board, Kress said, with consumer internet companies, cloud computing providers and enterprise customers all rushing to apply the generative AI to their businesses. The bullish forecast came as Nvidia reported revenue and earnings in its latest quarter, to the end of April, had also topped forecasts, thanks to a jump in sales to data centre customers as demand for AI took off. Revenue reached $7.19bn, up 19 per cent from the preceding three months but down 13 per cent from the year before, as sales of chips for gaming systems dropped. Earnings per share rose 22 per cent from a year before to 82 cents, or $1.09 on the pro forma basis Wall Street judges the company. The consensus view on Wall Street had been for revenue of $6.52bn and pro forma earnings of 92 cents a share. now let's delve into the numbers. Nvidia's different business units did not all perform equally well during the quarter - which can be expected, of course. Nvidia's data center business grossed revenues of $4.3 billion during the first quarter, which represents a new record high. Data center demand is not very cyclical, and companies kept investing in new equipment despite a potential recession being on the horizon. This can be explained by the fact that data centers are mission critical for many companies, so they don't really have a lot of choice when it comes to allocating capital to this space. Strong data center sales also have been seen in the results of other chip companies such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Both Nvidia and AMD also were able to benefit from the weak performance of their competitor Intel (INTC), as Intel has been losing market share in the data center space in recent quarters due to self-inflicted problems and an unconvincing product line-up. Nvidia is a major graphic chip or GPU player and is thus heavily impacted by the performance of related end markets. This includes both cryptocurrency mining and gaming. While some cryptocurrencies can't be mined with GPUs economically, such as Bitcoin, others, such as Ethereum, can be mined with GPUs. Ethereum moved from a proof-of-work model to a proof-of-stake model in the fall of 2022, but some miners still use GPUs for Ethereum mining. Not surprisingly, Nvidia's sales to this end market depend on the price for cryptocurrencies - when cryptocurrencies are expensive, miners are more eager to acquire additional GPUs and they may also be willing to pay high prices for them. During times when cryptocurrencies are less expensive, mining is less profitable, and GPU demand from cryptocurrency miners wanes. This has had an impact on Nvidia's sales in the past and likely played a role in Nvidia's Q1 sales as well. GPU sales have been under pressure in recent quarters due to lower demand by gamers as well. Many that like to play video games upgraded their hardware during the lockdown phase of the pandemic when staying at home meant that consumers had more time for video games. With many gamers having relatively new equipment, demand has declined in the recent past. At the same time, inflation pressures consumers' ability to spend on discretionary goods. On top of that, some consumers prefer to spend their money on experiences over things now as there are no lockdowns or travel restrictions in place any longer. All in all, this has resulted in a difficult macro environment for Nvidia's gaming business. Combined, the headwinds for the gaming market and the cryptocurrency market explain why Nvidia's sales and profits kept declining during the most recent quarter, relative to the results the company was able to generate one year earlier. The strong performance in the data center space was not enough to offset the headwinds Nvidia experienced in other areas. I personally going to take huge profit right now and wait for 250 $ levels
NASDAQ:NVDA
by moonypto
5
How To Pick Top Pharma Stocks like a ProAnalyzing the pharmaceutical industry, whose products play a key role in improving the quality of life of people around the world, is quite challenging sometimes also it requires deep knowledge and a careful approach, as I believe that investors should consider many factors, starting with evaluating the efficacy of the analyzed company's medications, including in relation to its competitors and the "gold standards," and ending with an analysis of its financial indicators In this article you will learn how to pick Top Pharma stocks like a pro trader and which factors you should consider, so buckle up 1/ Recognizing the risks At the very beginning, an investor you must recognize that the pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, where a company's investment attractiveness depends not only on the rate of expansion of its portfolio of product candidates, revenue growth, margins, the amount of total debt and cash on the balance sheet but is also heavily influenced by the expiration of patents on medications and vaccines. Moreover, in recent months, the healthcare sector has increasingly felt the impact of the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections, as some politicians are aiming to further tighten regulation of drug prices despite the existing Inflation Reduction Act. 2/ Leveraging data to your advantage The second step use data wisely, you should check all kinda data including stock screener, transcripts of earnings calls, financial results for the last quarters, analyst expectations, options data... The goal is to filter companies in poor financial condition, as well as those that trade at a significant premium to the sector and/or competitors I would also like to point out that in the current market environment, with Fed interest rates remaining at multi year highs, I do not recommend investing in companies with market caps below $500 million, as they typically have limited cash reserves and weaker institutional backing Also, I'd recommend investors read 10-Ks and 10-Qs, especially the section related to debt and sources of financing of the company's operations, to reduce the likelihood of an "unexpected" drop in the share price. A striking example is Invitae Corporation aka NVTAQ which declared bankruptcy in mid February 2024! Was there a prerequisite for this? The answer is yes since the company continued to generate negative cash flow and also had convertible senior notes maturing in 2028. Convertible notes can involve significant financial risks if the company cannot effectively use the cash to grow the business and break even. In this case, management will not be able to pay off the bonds with cash reserves and will have to resort to significant dilution of investors. In my opinion, Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. NASDAQ:PACB may face this problem because it has convertible senior notes maturing in 2028 and 2030. Factors that concern me include the company's declining revenue and total cash and short-term investments in recent quarters, while its operating expenses remain extremely high at around $80 million per quarter. Let's return to the second step in my approach to selecting the most promising assets in the healthcare sector. When selecting companies with market caps between $4 billion and $40 billion, I use more parameters since most of them already have FDA approved drugs and/or vaccines. As a result, it is also necessary to consider the rate of growth of operating income, net debt/EBITDA ratio, and how management copes with increased marketing and production costs. Finally, let's move on to the last basket, which contains pharmaceutical companies with market capitalizations exceeding $40 billion. I think, this group is best suited for more conservative investors looking for assets offering attractive dividend yields and growing net income, supported by a rich portfolio of FDA approved and experimental drugs. So, from Big Pharma, I like Pfizer Inc NYSE:PFE , AbbVie Inc NYSE:ABBV , Merck & Co NYSE:MRK and AstraZeneca PLC NASDAQ:AZN . I also want to include Novartis AG NYSE:NVS and Roche Holding AG OTC:RHHBY in this group sometimes investors need to make exceptions, namely if one larger company buys out a smaller player and/or when a major partnership agreement is concluded, as was the case between Merck and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited OTC:DSKYF in 2023. Also, in the event of a major acquisition or merger, the company's debt may temporarily increase sharply. If its management has previously implemented effective R&D and financial policies, the "net debt/EBITDA ratio" A remarkable example of a company falling into the "value trap" is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited NYSE:TAK , which overpaid for Shire. This deal did not significantly strengthen or rejuvenate the Japanese company's portfolio of drugs. As a result, it had to sell off billions of dollars in assets to pay off its debt partially. However, despite all the efforts of Takeda's management, its net debt/EBITDA ratio, although it fell below 5x, remains high, namely about 4.7x at the end of March 2024. 3/ Identifying promising therapeutic areas In general, the more prevalent a disease is, the larger the total addressable market for a drug and, as a result, the higher the chances that it will become a commercially successful product. Global spending on cancer medications will reach $377 billion by 2027, followed by immunology, and diabetes will come in third with an estimated spending of about $169 billion What challenges arise when choosing pharmaceutical companies? you should also keep in mind that the larger the market, the higher the competition between medicines, as companies strive to grab as big a piece of the pie as possible. As a result, for drug sales to take off, they need to have significant competitive advantages over the "gold standard." These competitive advantages may include greater efficacy in treating a particular disease, less frequent administration, a more favorable safety profile, and a more convenient route of administration. So, in recent years, competition in the global spinal muscular atrophy treatment market has intensified. Spinal muscular atrophy is a genetic condition. Currently, three drugs have been approved to combat the disorder, including Biogen Inc.'s (BIIB) Spinraza, Roche/PTC Therapeutics, Inc.'s (PTCT) Evrysdi, and Novartis AG's (NVS) gene therapy Zolgensma. All three products have similar efficacy, but Evrysdi has a more favorable safety profile and is the more convenient route of administration, namely the oral route, which is reflected in its sales growth rate from year to year. The second pitfall is the company's pipeline of experimental drugs. I believe that financial market participants opening an investor presentation that presents a company's pipeline, especially if its market cap is below $5 billion, should also pay close attention to what stage of clinical trial activity its experimental drugs are in. if a pharmaceutical company has most of its product candidates in the early stages of development, this represents a significant risk because, in this case, institutional and retail investors are often overly optimistic about the prospects for the drugs' mechanisms of action and/or clinical data obtained in a small group of patients. Simultaneously, as is often the case, the higher the optimism, the less favorable the risk/reward profile. In most cases, the larger and more diverse the patient population, the weaker the efficacy of a drug relative to what was seen in Phase 1/2 clinical trials. This ultimately leads to a downward valuation of its likelihood of approval and casts doubt on its ability to take significant market share from approved medications. This may subsequently reduce the company's investment attractiveness, making it more difficult to attract financing for its operating activities. As a result, I recommend excluding any company that, instead of focusing its financial resources on the most promising product candidates, conducts multiple early-stage clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of its experimental drugs. In my experience, the most successful pharmaceutical companies focus their efforts on bringing up to three product candidates to market and then reinvesting the revenue from their commercialization into developing the rest of the pipeline. The table below highlights the following parameters that I use to screen out the least promising companies. A third factor that investors, especially those new to the investment world, should consider is that large pharmaceutical companies are leaders in certain therapeutic areas, with a rich portfolio of patents covering various mechanisms of action and delivery methods of drugs, making it more difficult and more prolonged for smaller players to find product candidates that could potentially have the competitive advantages. So, Novo Nordisk A/S NYSE:NVO and Eli Lilly and Company NYSE:LLY have long been leaders in the global diabetes and weight loss drugs markets, and only very recently, they may be joined by Amgen Inc. NASDAQ:AMGN , Roche Holding, and several other companies 4/ Assessing a company's drug portfolio in comparison to competitors Evaluating the effectiveness, safety profile, and mechanism of action of a medication, as well as comparing clinical data with its competitors, takes a lot of time and effort. I provided examples of drugs and the most promising mechanisms of action in the obesity treatment market. Their manufacturers are Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Roche Holding, Viking Therapeutics, Inc, Amgen, Pfizer, Altimmune, Inc, OPKO Health, Inc, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Zealand Pharma A/S 5/ When market exclusivity for a company's key medications ends Every financial market participant who is considering investing in pharmaceutical companies should consider the expiration time of key patents of medicines. Marketing exclusivity represents protection against the entry of a generic version and/or biosimilar of a branded drug into the market, thereby allowing the company to recoup the resources spent on its development and, in the event of its commercial success, also reinvest the money received to accelerate the development of the remaining product candidates. Where can you find information about patent expiration dates? All the necessary information is either in 20-Fs/10-Ks or on the FDA website, namely in the "Orange Book" section. let's take Eli Lilly as an example. Open the latest 10-K. Then, the CTRL + F combination opens the ability to find specific words in the document. I usually enter "Expiry Date" or "compound patent" to find the patent section.nvestors can also find information about patents on the FDA website. As an example, I enter "Mounjaro" in the top line, and a list of patents opens that protect Eli Lilly's blockbuster from the introduction of its generic versions onto the market.hen, clicking on "Appl. No." will open information about the submission date of the patent and when it will expire. 6/ Evaluating the impact of insider share transactions The next step in selecting the most interesting assets in the healthcare sector is to analyze Form-4s. The CEO, CFO, and other key members of the company's management buy or sell shares from time to time.I am only interested in analyzing purchases since, most often, sales by management are option exercises carried out to pay taxes. When management starts making large outright purchases of a company's shares, it can signal that it believes in its long-term growth potential.if more than two top managers buy a large block of shares within two weeks of each other, it significantly increases the likelihood of the company's stock price rising in the next two months from the moment of their transactions But as with everything, there are exceptions, such as in the case of OPKO Health, which is developing a long-acting oxyntomodulin analog for the treatment of obesity together with LeaderMed Group.Over the past 12 months, OPKO's management, especially CEO Phillip Frost, has purchased over 12 million shares. However, despite this, its stock price has fallen by 27% over the same period. I believe that the key reasons for the divergence between these two facts are investors' lack of confidence in Phillip Frost's ability to make the company profitable again, as well as its low cash reserves. Therefore, companies like OPKO Health have already been eliminated at the second step of selection using Seeking Alpha's screener. 7/ CEO Performance in Business Development The CEO plays a crucial role in the success of a pharmaceutical company since the pharmaceutical industry is highly dynamic, and the competition between Big Pharma is especially high, I advise readers to pay attention to the track record of the CEO, especially how he copes with force majeure situations, as well as how effective the R&D policy is carried out under his leadership. 8/ Identifying Entry and Exit Points for Long-Term Investments The eighth step is in addition to the information that was obtained in the previous steps, as well as the analysis of financial risks and various financial metrics of the company, including its net debt, maturity dates of bonds, historical revenue growth rates, EBIT, gross margin, I build a DCF model with the ultimate goal of determining the price target. it is necessary to conduct a technical analysis of them, as well as the main ETFs that include them. In my opinion, the key ETFs are the SPDR® S&P Biotech ETF AMEX:XBI , Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF AMEX:FBCG , iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQ:IBB , and VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH. The purpose of technical analysis is to determine the stop-loss level and entry points at which the risk/reward profile is most favorable. taking profit is not that easy cuz you must master your emotions and greed which damn hard 9/ Creating a Watchlist Based on Risk/Reward Ratio The purpose of which is to create a watchlist of the companies I have selected based on the previous steps. I make several lists of companies based on their market caps and also rank them according to risk/reward profile, that is, in the first place is the stock that I think has minimal risks and at the same time can bring the greatest potential profit. I also advise creating small notes on each company, which can include information about risks, support/resistance zones, dates of publication of clinical data, and any thoughts you have that will make your decision more conscious when opening a position “What’s your secret sauce for choosing pharma stocks?”
NYSE:NVOEducation
by moonypto