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Stonksignaler

Drop soon, but how long?The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave A to Wave B’s duration (or hourly bars), movement, and rise over run or movement divided by duration. I took those values in the current case and compared them to historics to attempt to determine where Intermediate wave C could end. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A IS AT LEAST 3x LONGER THAN WAVE B? Currently, wave A’s duration of 50 trading hours was 3.8462 times longer than wave B’s 13. I studied similar instance where the ratio between A and B’s bars were between 3 and 5 to determine what could happen next. Based on the results I took the prior ratios of A/C and applied it to wave A’s actual 50 bar length to determine what C could do. The results are a mix between 7 and 38 trading hours for wave C. Of note, these are all less than wave A’s length. If the max hold true, wave C and the market top could occur no later than this Friday, November 17 at 1230 eastern time. While 7 trading hours is the lowest value, it could be an outlier so moving to the next lowest at 21 trading hours could place the low on or after the final hour of trading on Tuesday, November 14. Using the same process, the potential tops based on the A/C ratio that are possible are 4489.87 and 4501.87. I do not like any others greater than 4503. I next move over to the same concept but based on the expressed BC ratio for historical waves where A to B’s bars were between 3 and 5. The potential lengths max out at 38 hours again with a tight grouping around 28-30 hours. 29 hours is the first hour of trading on November 16. Of the potential tops, 2 of them are in still in play but likely to be hit within the first 1-2 trading days of this week at 4422.27 and 4441.24. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S MOVEMENT IS 6x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S MOVEMENT? Wave A’s movement of a 287.42 point gain divided by wave B’s paltry 47.26 point loss resulted in wave A being 6.0817 times larger than wave B. I studied historical occasions where wave A was 6 times larger than wave B to attempt to determine what could happen next. The potential lengths in this case appear to hold a 1:1 relationship which is why so many results indicate wave C can be 50 bars long. Some of these results are for micro waves wherein wave A may have only been 1 to 2 bars and the following wave C was also 1 to 2 bars. I will not consider the 50 bars as the current market is quite close to the top and 50 bars would take too long to get there. The potential lengths of interest appear to be in the 10 to 13, maybe 17 trading hour zone. Hour 10 will occur tomorrow within the first 3 hours of trading and hour 13 is later in the day. Hour 17 ends before 1230 eastern time on November 14. Nearly all of the project ed tops have occurred with the exception of 4478.88. While considering wave C from the B/C ratio and applying wave B’s length of 13 hours, all results point to 13 hours. This is not helpful, even though 13 is a length already derived and taken into consideration. Once again, most of the moves have already occurred except for four notables at 4433.11, 4446.68, 4462.09, and 4496.39. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S RISE OVER RUN IS 1.5x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S RR? Wave A gained 287.42 points over 50 trading hours creating a rise over run of 5.7484. Wave B lost 47.26 points over 13 trading hours for a rise over run of 3.6354. Taking wave A’s value and dividing by wave B indicates Wave A was 1.5812 times larger. This is not an unusual value as B waves are corrective and most of the time shorter and retrace less than wave A moved. I researched similar instances where the A to B ratio was between 1.5 and 1.7 to determine possible wave C reactions. This generated a much larger list of results with 60 matches. Potential wave C lengths are 7, 8, 10, and 13. Potential market tops of 4459.37 and 4478.88 are possible. The values based on historic B/C rise over run relationships max out at a length of 13 bars again. The only potential tops to occur are 4451.35 and 4496.39. Another application of historical studies place lines correlating to percentages on charts for potential movement retracement and movement extensions. There is too much data to list all possible datapoints but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Potential reversal levels based on historic Intermediate wave Cs in Primary wave 2s have strongest agreement of reversal between 4415-4419, and secondary is 4430-4434. Similarly, based on data for waves ending in 2C2C, strongest agreement is at 4515-4519 with shared secondaries 4415-4419 and 4485-4489. Lastly, the broad data for waves ending in 2C indicates the market top could also be at 4415-4419, with secondaries at 4420-4425. Bottom Line Analysis: There are three major things to consider. The first is that all movement so far is only Intermediate wave A. While this is possible, Intermediate wave B will likely begin soon with a drop. The second theory is Intermediate wave C will end this week. We will likely see upward movement likely no higher than 4500 this week with my primary target below 4471 before Wednesday. I like the values between 4459-4462. Playing this second theory out, median historical models have Minor wave 1 inside of Intermediate wave C at 1 hour top at 4390.29, wave 2 down in 2 hours at 4349.60, wave 3 at 3 hours long high at 4423.27, wave 4 down to 4382.76 in an hour and final wave 5 to 4456.04 in 2 hours. Actual wave reversal points are: Some of our historical levels to consider pointed to a top around 4415-4416 to include. Some of our possible durations were at 7 trading hours as well which would have concluded with Friday’s close where the market peaked at 4418.03. Many models are hinting at the market top being in. After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the US Credit Rating. This could see declines on Monday. While I think theory two is possible, theory three cannot be discounted. We will see how trading begins on Monday and Theories 1 and 3 both should begin with declines on Monday, and it could take a week to actually know which one is unfolding. Once Primary wave 2 is over, I am initially projecting a near thousand-point loss in the S&P 500 index by May 2024. The cause is unknown, I have been looking at China invading Taiwan for over a year. I figure this could cripple the semiconductor industry which controls much of the things we use throughout the world whether a conflict destroys the manufacturing ability or hands monopolistic control to the Chinese, the outcome will likely be devasting in the short-term. Nearly everything in the world relies on a chip or component moving through Taiwan, as the world’s eggs are basically in one basket. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
CSCO Cisco Systems Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold CSCO here: Or reentered here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CSCO Cisco Systems prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 53usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-8-18, for a premium of approximately $1.77. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by TopgOptions
New Program Relooks at Market TopWith our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. The shorthand reference for this is the alphanumeric of the waves combined—152BC5. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 Intermediate wave 1 was 175 hours and a gain of 360.62 points from the market’s most recent low in mid-March 2023. Intermediate wave 2 then lost 121.20 points in 86 trading hours before Intermediate wave 3 gained 400.19 points in 208 hours. Finally, Intermediate wave 4 lost 120.39 points in 41 trading hours setting up Intermediate wave 5 to complete the cycle with upward movement toward, but likely short of, the all-time market high of 4818 from January 2022. Based on historical wave data for similar waves ending in 52BC5, Intermediate wave 5 is broken up into fourths, or quartiles of possible movement. The first quartile of data suggest wave 5 could extend beyond the movement of Intermediate wave 3’s top (end point) by 106.33% while the data’s median suggests 133.605% and the third quartile is at 152.82%. The maximum recorded extension thus far was 153%. This would indicate the market will top below 4660. Still based on the same dataset, the most amount of models indicate the end of Intermediate wave 5 could occur within 86 trading hours. Second most agreement is a tie among many lengths, but the models are not strong enough. These levels are 96, 104, 123, or 624 hours. As of Friday’s close on July 21, 2023, Intermediate wave 5 is 123 hours long IF it is still ongoing. The current high was on July 19 at 105 trading hours. Based on waves ending in 2BC5, the quartile extension levels are 110.65%, 129.39%, & 152.82% with the maximum extension at 192.58% (nearly double the length of wave 3’s movement). The models for duration agree the strongest on a length of 41 trading hours. Second most agreement is 86 while third is a tie at 52, 175, and 208. Fourth agreement is 26 hours and fifth is 88 hours. Most of these lengths have already been surpassed with the exception of 175 and 208. Based on waves ending in BC5, the quartile extension levels are 113.62%, 127.15%, & 147.45%. Strongest model forecast for length remains at 41 hours, with second most agreement at 208 hours, third at 52 hours, fourth at 246 hours, and fifth at 86 hours. This analysis could also indicate the market topped on July 19, 2023 as it was near two historical reversal levels AND 105 trading hours long which was next to a modelled point. If the top is not in, it could occur on or before August 2 PRIMARY WAVE C Primary wave A began when the market bottomed in mid-October 2022 and gained 608.93 points in 235 trading hours. Primary wave B then lost 291.65 points by the time it bottomed 476 trading hours later. Based on waves ending in 152BC, the quartile extension for Primary wave C are 126.53%, 152.48%, & 161.79% with the maximum at 181.32% (these lines are the right-most scaled on the above chart). The models only agree on one length which is 476 hours, which is the same as Primary wave B which means it may not occur in this instance. Some B waves are a 1:1 length of the following C waves, however, that is generally observed on a much smaller scale which is not the case here. I will wait for the next broader dataset to determine possible lengths. So far all quartiles have been surpassed and the prior maximum observed is at 4595.69. The current market high is at 615 hours, and the market close at trading hour 633 on Friday. Based on waves ending in 52BC, the quartile extension levels are 125.13%, 149.765%, & 166.55%. The models once again agree the most at 476 hours, with second most agreement scattered at 235, 238, & 952 hours. Although not strongly endorsed, the next duration that is projected and is yet to occur is 705 trading hours which is roughly August 7, 2023. CONCLUSION There is a chance the market top has already occurred on July 19, 2023. If it has not occurred, it could occur as early as this coming week. The Federal Reserve has another rate decision on Wednesday and has a history of making for a volatile aftermath. Most of the data in this analysis is pointing to a market top below 4638.36 and possibly below 4596. The duration models do not help as much on an hourly scale. If the values are correct, the market may not top for another whole week. Regardless of the results, this new program should help determine many of the steps down in the pending bear market finale likely rolling through the next trading year.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Is Minor Wave 4 Over?Our newest system is online and in the Beta testing phase for forecasting waves. We will use this to project Minor wave 4 endpoints on an hourly chart. Based on historical data, models for waves ending in BC54, are broken into the following quartile retracement levels: 10.12%, 32.79%, and 40.09%. Strongest model agreement for length points to Minor wave 4 lasting 9 trading hours with second most agreement at 21 hours. Third agreement is 13 hours and then 18 hours. Based on waves ending in C54, the quartile retracement levels are 26.15%, 36.62% and 48%. The length in trading hours has strongest agreement at 13 hours, then 9 hours, 3 hours, and 10 hours. Fifth is a tie at 5 and 18 trading hours. The 26.15% level equates to a low at 4527.86 which is nearly the same place as Minor wave 4’s current low of 4527.56. The following is a new subset of data which is based on previous Minor wave 4s inside of Intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary wave Cs. Based on this data, the quartile retracements are 8.24%, 37.2%, and 40.98%. Models agree the most at 18 or 3 hours long. Second most agreement is also tied at 4 or 5 hours. Now, lets revisit the historical data based on daily bars and waves. The following was written in my most recent analysis, “Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%.” The low thus far was at hour 10 on an hourly chart and day 1 on a daily chart at 4527.56. A case can be made that this low represents the bottom of Minute wave A or the actual end of Minor wave 4. If we are still in Minor wave 4, Minute waves A down and B up have likely concluded and are depicted below on a 15 minute chart: If the market remains in the final stages of Minor wave 4 downward, the market will likely move lower within the first few hours of trading on Monday. The 21st hour of Minor wave 4 concludes 120 minutes into trading a Monday. The low would likely occur before that time. The low would also likely occur beneath the currently achieved low of 4527.56. Based on all of the data, a low beneath 4500 remains unlikely. This scenario would also make the length a total of 3 trading days on the daily chart and inline with the projections from the daily set of historical data. I plan to conduct another analysis on Minor wave 5 after the market closes on Monday, however, an early low on Monday followed by gains could drastically shrink the ability to forecast major upward movements for Minor wave 5 since the current projected top is around 4600. I will provide another Intermediate wave 5 forecast within the next day based on the new program to potentially best identify the market top on a more macro set of datapoints.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Is tomorrow the day we predicted last year to be the market top?FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took all S&P 500 price data, applied structured Elliott Wave Theory to it, identified the relationships between all macro and micro wave structures, and determined our current location in time to forecast future movement. By early July 2022, I realized if we completed SubMillennial wave 1--Grand Supercycle 5--Supercycle 1 in January 2022, then I could take prior wave relationships to forecast the 3 waves inside of Supercycle 2 based on the data from Supercycle wave 1. This forecast can be found here: It forecasted the bottom of the first wave down (Cycle wave A) to end around October 18, 2022, the top of the second wave up (Cycle wave B) to end around mid-July 2023, and the final bottom (Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2) likely in the first quarter of 2025. I would update my program every time I believed waves completed and re-calculate these points and the movement over the next few weeks to months. Feel free to head to my profile to view all ideas. A few reversal points did occur earlier or later than forecasted at higher and lower levels, but I learned the original forecasts were normally the most accurate. One of the key places I rushed a forecast was as we got closer to October 18th I had the bottom occurring later in the October or closer to November. This August 20, 2022 analysis had the levels and days for the bottom spot on, but I temporarily went a different way. The relational data was proving more and more accurate. The actual bottom in October was on the 13th instead of the first forecast of the 18th. I finally accepted the bottom by December 5, 2022, once I went back to review my older analysis. From there the program continued to call waves out well, with Primary wave A happening lower than expected but on the date as seen in the December 5th analysis above. Primary wave B was long and the internal wave C never broke below the initial wave A which was confusing, however Primary wave B was forecasted on December 6th to occur in the middle of March and sure enough it occurred on March 13, 2023 as seen below: But after this original forecasting from the program I continued to attempt to find Primary B in many places after a traditional ABC wave down which never came. Finally by March 2, I reviewed my original analysis and updated Primary wave B to end around March 14 and it ended March 13 as seen here: Upon completion of Primary wave B, I forecasted the market top and end of Primary wave C. The forecasted date was June 16th no higher than 4403.88 as seen here: After the completion of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 1, I updated the market top to June 20th, based on Intermediate wave 1 likely lasting longer than initially expected when Minor wave 1 ran long as seen here: At this time I loosely placed Intermediate waves 1-5 in their projected locations as well. The market top was re-adjusted again back to June 16th on April 9th as seen here: Intermediate wave 2 was forecasted on April 17th as was spot on on April 26th here: Intermediate wave 3 was much longer than expected after gaining 33% of the expected gain in the first day followed by being slow and trading sideways at times too which is very abnormal of a wave 3. By May 7, I had backed the market top back up to July and then debt ceiling chaos broke out. With the debt ceiling resolved Intermediate wave 3 was still slowly moving. Then my program threw me for the biggest curveball I could not believe and thought it was an error. Intermediate wave 3 had finally wrapped up. All preceding waves to that point had been 12-25 days long. In my wisdom, Intermediate wave 4 would likely be in the middle of that range. The program urged it would only be 2 days AND only retrace 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. I was skeptical but went with it and said it could last 4 days. Intermediate wave 4 lasted only 3 days and after I adjusted the Fibonacci tool retracement levels, 15.06% said the bottom would be at 4261.479 as seen here: The actual bottom was 4261.07. Finally on June 8, 2023 Ziggy spits out the plan for Intermediate wave 5 as seen here: START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP The models are pointing for Intermediate wave 5 to last between 3-5 days with the likely top around 4393.93. I chose 4 days and around but not likely over 4400. After all the projections and models and recalculations over the past year we are here. Still around 4400 and back to mid-June. AND it’s Fed day with some high expectations of no hikes and word of a future cut in 2023. Elation should follow if this happens, but what else is going on. Inflation since 2021 is now around 16% and has increased every month since mid-2021. Wages for everyone have not increased even close to 16%. Mortgages are around 7%, not many people rushing to trade their 2% mortgage for a 7% mortgage now. Students with loan need to start paying the piper as they begin to accrue new interest again. Those that did not wisely save their payments and collect interest on that money over the past two years are about to give up some luxuries which means retailers and restaurants are will soon see declining sales. Chaos bound to rattle the 2024 Presidential tickets is just gaining steam with outcomes unknown. Meanwhile the VIX was at its lowest level since pre-COVID last Friday signaling complacency in an economy that continues to lay off workers. All the numbers are not moving synchronously in the proper directions which likely precedes market corrections. In this case, based on all the data, this is likely the major bear market I identified last year. I can always be wrong, or we can go up a little higher before correcting. But I have learned my lesson to trust the original analysis and that says the top is in. It would be smart to not repeat 2008 and watch your retirement accounts and 401Ks plummet 50% when you have the opportunity to do something about it today. Maybe move to cash or something with less exposure to major companies and indices or the G Fund for you government employees. You may not make much money and can always switch it up if the program is wrong, or you can save your retirement and sit out of the market for 14-18 months until we find the bottom. While others begin recovering and realize they need to pick up a second job or leave retirement for work again (Tom Brady might not mind) to survive, you could then ride the next major bull market up. Follow me if you would like to see where the models take us moving forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
One more down day and then...Strong chance Intermediate wave 4 ends tomorrow if Minor waves A and B are already completed. There is an off chance the marked wave A and B in yellow letters are only Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of wave A, however, the historical data was pretty adamant on Intermediate wave 4 only lasting around 2-4 days which makes the current chart setup very likely. Another key level comes into play that I original wrote off when the models first projected the bottom of Intermediate wave 4. The strongest models indicated the total Intermediate wave 4 retracement would only be 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s entire move. That level equates to 4261.48. The index is pretty much there already. However, I believe we have just completed Minute wave 2 to the upside inside of the final Minor wave C. Confirmation of this position will likely occur with a significant drop within the first 2 hours of trading tomorrow and could see a gap down on the premarket economic data. Based on the historical data, all models and datasets point to Minor wave C lasting 0-2, and most likely only one day. Day 1 is officially tomorrow and will contain the likely market bottom that won’t be breached for 1-2 months. Based on waves ending in C4C, the likely bottom for Minor wave C will be at the 114.61% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement, or 120.8%, or 137.50%. Based on waves ending in 4C, the median retracement levels will be 113.25%, 126.76% or 174.83%. Through the middle of all these levels lies a horizontal trendline which has provided strong resistance during the course of Primary wave C, however, it was broken through on June 2 and could provide support for tomorrow’s likely bottom. The final bottom does not appear to be below 4236.01 and may only be as low as 4254. If we gap down at the open it would likely gap below 4254 which could place bottom around 4240. I do not foresee the original projections down around 4210 in play. Once again, the open holds the key to the day. I plan to analyze again after tomorrow and project the final market top for 2023-2026 by this weekend.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
My Bullish Bias Ends After 30 More Days Of VolatilityWe are possibly in Minuette wave 4 of Minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3. Could see another strong day of movement tomorrow after a possible early morning drop. From here we could go UP toward 4185 by the close tomorrow DOWN toward 4148 by early Monday morning UP toward 4236 by mid-day Wednesday DOWN toward 4185 ( or whatever the top was on May 18th) before end of day next Thursday UP toward 4325 before end of close on May 31 DOWN toward 4196 on June 8th Final rally should put the top around 4400 before June 21st. Here is a snapshot with the estimated dates highlighted
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Good Start To Wave 3, More To FollowNow that last week has settled, it looks like PATH TWO was the chosen path from Like most of my analyses the original analysis is normally the correct one. Most premature analyses tend to rush a process that should otherwise be left alone. What does this mean? Intermediate wave 2 was later than initially projected and did not go as low per In fact, the analysis from last weekend using Minor wave A and B data indicated it would no longer drop to 3950. The likely floor would be no lower than 4000 and could break just below the end of Minor wave A which was 4049.35. The call for the bottom could have been at 4049.03 and for now the bottom was 4048.28. This low provides Intermediate wave 3 the room to gain the original projection of 300 over a few weeks, however Friday got a chunk of that. The projection for the end of Intermediate wave 3: Based on waves ending in 2BC3, Intermediate wave 3 could last 17, 42, or 48 days. The quartiles for potential movement (light blue lines) are a 110.75% extension of Intermediate wave 1, 302.37%, and 371.04%. Based on waves ending in BC3, strongest model agreement for length are at 12, 25, and 48 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow lines) are 142.75%, 244.81%, and 261%. Based on waves ending in C3, strongest model agreement has Intermediate wave 3 lasting 12 or 25 days. Next strongest is at 24, 36, 50, and 62 days. The models become more diluted after that. The quartiles (white lines) are 144.13%, 209.13%, and 302.37%, respectively. In digesting the models, a slow wave 3 is not likely to occur especially with a diagonal trendline (thicker dashed red at top) which has been a pillar of resistance since Cycle wave B began in October 2022. 42 days long would put the end of Intermediate wave 3 around July 6th. The aforementioned trendline would be around 4424 at that point. 25 days long would place another potential wave ending around June 9th. The trendline would be around 4390. For Fibonacci traders this is pretty much at the 161.80% “Golden Ratio.” 12 days would be around May 19th, aligning with a 150% extension of Intermediate wave 1 at 4350. Another possibility is the diagonal resistance line is temporarily broken as a bull trap. This would mean the index strongly goes above the trendline before correcting significantly. We are near the end of the larger corrective wave which began in October. After the impulse wave up, we should have a drop in the index possibly over a single week before a quick move up again. If Intermediate wave 3 is shorter than Intermediate wave 1’s length of 25 trading days, then Intermediate wave 5 must be equal to or shorter than Intermediate wave 3 as Intermediate wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. This is crucial to keep in mind. This is my most expected scenario if the index moves above 4300 within the next 7-10 trading days. I have laid out many possibilities and only time will tell, but I doubt Intermediate wave 3 is longer than 25 days, especially after a strong day 1 on Friday. I further expect the top to remain below 4393. I will continue to provide updates as the index moves along and completes the Minor waves inside of Intermediate wave 3. I am not settled on the end of Cycle wave B yet, but the current estimation is before the end of June. The potential catalysts for tops the summer remain Debt Ceilling Debacle and China action against Taiwan. A potential scenario for the end of Intermediate wave 3 is a temporary impasse on the debt ceiling vote in which the US defaults for a few days leading to Intermediate wave 4 or wave 3 ends when a band-aid 3 week extension is permitted. End of cycle wave B could be brought on if there is no solution by the end of June and no band-aid bill is passed. The China scenario would be a decision to invade Taiwan and taking control of the semiconductor chip market. All countries and products requiring chips would be impacted. Some companies have been working quickly to establish plants, factories, and resource mining in other places throughout the world, but China could cause chaos by taking more control of Taiwan.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Post-Fed Update: Ignore Fed RedWe likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2. Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C we needed to finish Minor wave 2. As of now, strongest model agreement has Minor wave 3 lasting 6 days with next strongest models at 4 days. For waves ending in C33, first quartile move extension would be 150.48% of Minor wave 1, with the median move at 202% and third quartile at 396.60%. There is a horizontal trendline just above 202% so the end of wave three will likely remain below 4330. The drop today presents plenty of ground to be gained starting tomorrow. The overall end of Intermediate wave 3 could occur sometime before the final week in May. Right now the final market top appears on track for mid-June so a debt ceiling issue by June 1 may not be likely....yet. I should provide another update around the middle of next week if not one over the weekend.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Hit the target top, now for the bottomIf Intermediate wave 1 is finally done, it was a few days late, but on target. Next forecast is for Intermediate wave 2 which should see the anticipated market decline over the next 5-12 days. This means the bottom should occur prior to May 2. As of now, Intermediate wave 1 was 23 days long. Waves ending in 2BC2 have been 20-50% the length of their first wave’s length. The projected retracement percentages have not change, but the values have slightly as the initial estimates were based on Intermediate wave 1 topping at 4160. The most specific datasets correlate to the retracement levels in light blue. The 33.44% value represents the first quartile of historical movement for waves ending in 2BC2. The median is 60.60% and the third quartile is 77.87%. The next specific values are in yellow and the are tied to historical waves ending in BC2. The third quartile is not displayed in yellow because it is also the 77.87% from the first dataset. The length of wave 2 based on this slightly larger dataset has it lasting 5-12 days again, with the strongest model agreement on 7 days. This could put the bottom around April 25. The final set of values are based on a larger and broader dataset based on the behavior of waves ending in C2. These values are in white and the median value is omitted because it is close to the yellow value of 67.86%. The strongest model agreement suggests wave 2 could last 23 days (18 models) followed by 8 days (14 models), 12 days (12 models), and 7 days (6 models). Declines could be related to earnings and speculation on the Fed which will provide the next rate hike determination and hint toward the future during the first week in May. Based on all the data, I am placing the bottom around 3922-3950. This will depend if the index starts moving down tomorrow or if another new high is reached. After this next bottom we should jump into the final strong rally of this uptrend possibly gaining 350-450 points over the course of 4 weeks. A perfect catalyst for this would be the Fed doing what is expected and hinting at a pause on rate hikes. While I do not agree it is a smart thing to do, it will be one of the many catalysts for the massive declines set to begin around mid-late June. Let’s play the drop, the big gain, and then its prevent defense time (after wave 4 down and wave 5 up).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
THE Bear Market Bottom UpdateLast year on July 4th I published a timeline of the overall bear market cycle (Attached below in Related Ideas and titled "Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY"). This will provide an update on a chart that can be reflected on in the future by “playing the bars” for full veracity. The projection was made in early July when the market was trading at 3825 and the low at that point had been 3636.87. Market analysts were calling stating the bottom was in and the market will continue up beyond 4818. My analysis said otherwise. Some believe new market highs (above 4818) are near, while I know the hurt has not even happened yet. After the early summer of 2023, I still expect an overall decline to the end of 2024 or as late as the first quarter of 2025. The end of Cycle wave A was initially projected for October 18, 2022 with a low around 3175. The actual low was 3491 on October 13. Cycle wave B was projected to top around July 18, 2023 near 4600. With updated data, I have dropped the top for Cycle wave B to 4400 and sped up the end date to mid-June 2023. Cycle wave C’s bottom was projected for March 13, 2025 around 2400. While I still have a projected bottom at 2400, this is likely to change once Cycle wave B is complete and each Primary wave inside of Cycle C completes as well. The earlier end dates for Cycles A and B have moved the final bear market bottom toward the end of 2024 at this time. Continue to follow as we muddle through this bear market where there is always something to be gained.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Called the top, now the next 2 bottomsIt appears Minor wave 3 (yellow number 3) may have concluded. I called the top around 4112 and it hit 4110.75 near the close on Friday. We shall see how Monday opens but a new low should be in the making over the next two days. Next up is Minor wave 4. The historical data has been very consistent with a 47-49% reversals for wave 4s in wave 1s in wave Cs. I initially thought that is too much in a 1-2 day span (drop of nearly 100 points), it is certainly not impossible with the market’s volatility during this overall bearish market. The gains should continue for a final hurrah to end the week after Minor wave 4 is completed (most likely) on Tuesday. Minor wave 5 is also the end of Intermediate wave 1 (purple number 1). Historically these waves extend around 117% of their respective wave 3s. The top should not really be higher than 4150, but the current placement on the chart is temporary and will get updated once Minor wave 4 is complete and the data is applied to the program. Minor wave 1 was 7 days long while Minor wave 3 was only 5 days long. Elliott wave rules state wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave therefore Minor wave 5 mush be 5 days or less. If wave 5 begins on Tuesday, day 1 would not start until Wednesday. This means Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 must end by Wednesday April 12 (April 7 is a market holiday). Intermediate wave 2 will likely require a later event to setup at least a week of declines. With the CPI report coming out before the open on April 12th, this is the likely catalyst for Intermediate wave 2. It most likely means Intermediate wave 1 would end on or before April 11th around 4145. The placement of Intermediate wave 2 is even more of an estimate with an initial forecasted length around 6-7 days. This would coincide with the beginning of earnings season. The banks kick it off next week, but reports start coming in around April 20th. Complete WAG is a low below 3990 by April 19. We will continue to watch how this all unfolds as we climb to the next major peak around 4400 early this summer.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Next Short-Term Tops En Route To 4400With the likely conclusion of Minor waves (yellow numbers) 1 and 2, I am providing a short-term update. I have taken the final values from both of these waves to forecast the end of Minor wave 3. I originally had the entirety of Intermediate wave (pink numbers) 1 ending by April 6 around 4112, but that will now likely occur a little later. The centermost wave extension numbers relate to the likely end of Minor wave 3 and are based on historical movements considering the wave data from the completion of Minor waves 1 and 2. Minor wave 1 was seven days long, while wave 2 was two days long. Based on historical applications, wave 3 will likely last 6-8 days with a top between 4112 and 4135. Minor wave 4 would likely be a short drop and potentially only last 1-2 days. Intermediate wave 1 is now most likely around April 12 possibly near 4165. Intermediate wave 2-5 are still early projections and they will be updated in time. I have slid the end of Cycle wave (orange letter ‘b’) B back one more day for the moment with the final market top around June 20, 2023. It would still most likely occur at the top of the trend line as it is placed on this chart. The wave extension numbers to the far right relate to the likely end of Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5 since they are all the same event. These levels and timeframes are based on the historical application of Cycle wave A and Primary waves A & B inside of the current Cycle wave B. Next week’s rise is likely attributed to a slow news week where ‘no news is good news.’
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
1
The Path To 2400 Goes Through...The bottom was on track timewise from my last analysis, however, the bottom was not as low as projected. Intermediate wave C inside of Primary wave B ended higher than I would have liked but 86% retracement of an A wave in an overall corrective wave is not unusual. Here is the estimated path to the high. Analysis of historical data has Primary wave C lasting 34-67 days. The path for 67 days is laid out here in which the final top flirts with 4400 around June 16, 2023. I will re-look at the path as each of the 5 Intermediate waves finalize. Typical catalysts could be the Fed and CPI numbers, however the debt ceiling deadline falls in line with the top. I have zero doubt we are heading for the worse part of this correction, but the path is likely through 4400 first.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Delayed bottom may finally arrive with CPI reportI have been waiting over a month for the reversal to finally complete. We are clearly on the path, but still need a few more things to occur to confirm that we are still in Primary wave B, but that it is near completion. IF we are still in Primary B (blue letters), we are likely in Intermediate wave C (purple letters) and Minor wave 3 (yellow numbers) was possibly completed with the with low early this morning. Next steps would be Minor wave 4 up and then Minor wave 5 down which completes the two macro waves (Intermediate and Primary) above it as well. Minor wave 4 should only last 1-2 days with a top below 4000. Target top is around 3982 by either tomorrow or Monday. We should then continue the final leg down with a drop of at least 130 points before March 16 and closer to March 14. I have use wave extensions based on historical data to attempt to determine these reversal points. The most narrow and smaller set of data is the probably Minor wave 4 retracement points. While the top could go above 4000, it most likely would not surpass 4053. The short timeline and lack of game-changing information will likely limit a powerful upside burst above 4000. The next set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Intermediate wave C based on the data for Intermediate waves A and B. This is the left most set of extensions that are at the top and bottom of the chart. Typically Intermediate wave C extends beyond 127.13% of Intermediate wave A, however, that move seems quite significant in the likely short period of time that remains. The bottom should move below 3764 which was the prior low from the end of December, but nothing more is required to closeout this wave. I am placing the lowest possible bottom around 3700 but it depends on the momentum which will be apparent by next Friday. This will continue to be evaluated The final set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Primary wave B based on the data from Primary wave A when compared to historical wave relationships. March 16th would tie the longest length relationship between a Primary wave A to Primary wave C. This also corresponds to the longer end of relationships for Intermediate wave A to Intermediate wave C. The extensions are the furthest set to the far right. In order to meet a 100% extension for Intermediate wave C, this would create around a minimum 50% retracement for Primary wave B from wave A. The extension ranges for this data are quite wide and my targeted forecast moves are around median movements which are easy targets to pick. I will re-evaluate late next week to see if Minor 4 occurred near the plan and if wave 5 had begun. Best case all of this finally occurs and we can finally end Primary wave B. A major change after the recent spat of declines would likely stem from a major event. The Fed doesn’t meet until after the 17th of March, but the CPI report is on the 14th. If the bottom occurs on or before the 14th it could be based on the set of data. A lower inflation reading could spur the rally and then the Fed confirms inflation is coming under control a week later further igniting the next rally. Primary wave C would start around 2 months later than originally predicted, but it would likely place the next market top in mid- to late-summer. I still forecast a nice top above 4400-4700 before my doom and gloom forecast which I will touch on later and can be found in my old forecasts going back almost a whole year now.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
MAJOR resistance test for the marketsAttempting to identify the end of Intermediate B has been waves of fun and plenty of misses. While there is no prescribed metrics on what the wave’s overall movement and duration should be, historical metrics have been quite reliable (most of the time). That has not been the case during this chase for Intermediate wave B. I have not given up and caved to the belief that the major uptrend has begun yet. We should still move down in an Intermediate wave C which will also close out Primary wave B (corrective downward wave). Here is my Elliott wave outline of Primary wave B so far. Primary wave A ended with the peak in the first hour of trading on December 1, 2022 (light blue colored-encircled letter A). Primary wave B is comprised of 3 subwaves (Intermediate waves). Intermediate wave A (magenta letter A in parenthesis) ended with a low on December 22, 2022 and has yet to be broken. I currently have placed Intermediate wave B’s endpoint at the high from January 13, although this could still change in the next few trading days. My Elliott Wave, Wave 3 finder, identifies wave 3 and other reversal extremes such as the end of waves 2, 4, and B. This indicator is toward the bottom of my charts. The signals are a magenta background bar when entering a reversal that will see the equity move up soon and a lighter blue background color when the equity has topped and will revert to the downside. The Minor waves reside inside each Intermediate wave and are colored with yellow letters or numbers Minute waves are inside of each Minor wave and they are colored with light green alpha numerals. My wave 3 indicator mainly spots wave 3 of 3 which was the case midday on December 16 and early morning on January 9. This is why I am confident that Intermediate A was placed correctly, and we are still in Intermediate wave B for the moment. We are finally approaching a major level of resistance which has held strong since January 2022. We have not had a daily bar that has closed above the thick red-dotted line. This will be tested within the next 3 days. An alternative location if we break through the resistance and keep moving higher is that we are indeed in Primary wave C and should continue upward toward 4400-4600. If this path plays out, Primary wave B would have ended on December 22. Here is a chart of this alternative course and where we may be today: I do not like this due to the pace of Cycle wave B. Cycle wave B began at the current market low from October. The original expectation was that it would ultimately trend upward until Summer 2023. If this alternative were true, the market top would probably occur within another month, maybe two at the most. While this is not impossible, and potentially practical, the historical relationships between the macro and minor waves do not support this outcome. IF WE JUST ENDED INTERMEDIATE WAVE B: The following projection will only be a rough estimate of where Intermediate C down inside of Primary B would take us IF Intermediate wave B indeed ended at the market high on Friday January 13, 2023. Based on historical waves ending in 2BBC, potential wave durations based on data quartiles are 6, 11, 28, or 41 trading days. Movement extension in relation to Intermediate wave A’s movement are 127.13%, 130.095% and 133.06%. These percentages and levels have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago and are the light blue lines. The only new difference based on waves ending in BBC are the potential wave durations as well. Most model agreement is with a duration of 10 & 28 days. There is a large tie for second most at 5-8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 24, 31, & 41 days. For waves ending in BC, most model agreement is at a length of 14 trading days. Second most is at 14 days, third most at 42 days. Fourth most ties at 7, 8, & 10 trading days. Fifth is 5, 19, 28, & 56 days. Historically wave C can be equal to the length of waves A + B. Intermediate wave A was 15 days long and wave B for the moment is at 14 days. Based on all this data, 28 days may be around the maximum length for Intermediate wave C. This date February 24th. Another potential length is 11 days, which while less than both Intermediate waves A or B, it aligns with the next Fed meeting and rate hike. The only near-term catalysts for market decline occurring immediately would be earnings in which the season just began. The Fed will not meet for a few more weeks and that is too deep into the projected decline to be a cause of the decline. The Fed would most likely signal the bottom if they hold to the market’s current expectation of a 25 or 50 basis point hike. Bottom line is we should decline at least one more time to retest the December lows before moving upward. The resistance test early this week will show us if that decline will occur. I will conduct a market re-look after this week plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Bottom before CPI followed by months of greenTesting for perceived location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: B Location ID: 152BBB This is an update on the progress of Primary wave B. My last analysis ( ) projected Intermediate wave A (inside of Primary wave B) to bottom on December 22 which appears to be the case for now. Minor waves 3 and 4 inside of Intermediate A did appear to hit their marks as well. Minute wave 3 in Minor wave 3 was confirmed on an hourly chart by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder ( ). This would appear to confirm the location of Minor wave 3 and further confirm Intermediate wave A is over, even though the bottom was not as deep as projected. The prior analysis also projected Intermediate wave B to top around 3925 by January 5. Due to Intermediate wave A not dropping as far, wave B may not reach this top. The following are the projections for the end of Intermediate wave B based on the assumed conclusion of Intermediate wave A. Intermediate wave A lasted 15 trading days, moved 278.13 for a rise over run of 18.542 points per day. The left most set of lines are for determining Intermediate wave B endpoints. Based on waves ending in 2BBB, the length of Intermediate wave B may only be 3 to 4 days (which we are beyond at this point). The most current top was 4 days after the end of wave A which theoretically means Intermediate B could be over. In my opinion this movement would be quick and historical data for waves ending in 2BBB is very limited so let’s explore the other datasets first. The quartiles for movement retracement are at 39.28%, 56.545% and 73.81%. This would point to tops at 3896.48, 3954.49, and 4012.50 (the light blue lines on the chart). Based on waves ending in BBB, the strongest model agreement for length is at 3 and 4 days again, with additional indications of 5 and 9 days long as well. The maximum lengths are generally only 60% of wave A’s move, while most are no higher than 33%. This would likely cap the length of wave A at 9 days, with a more likely cap at 5 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 29.76%, 52.325%, and 68.64%. These are the yellow lines on the chart. The largest dataset, and less specific, is for waves ending in BB. In order of strongest model agreement intermediate wave B could last 4 or 3 days. The third most agreement is a tie amongst 5, 8, 15, and 30 days. Fourth most agreement is at 9 and 11 trading days. Movement retracement quartiles are near the previous levels with the 3rd quartile being the outlier at 86.58% (the white level on the chart). All datasets tend to point to a length around 3-4 days which has not only passed our current position but the current top was achieved on day 4. The level may have been lower than the quartiles from the models, however, it is in line with some of the historical movement. We will likely wait and see what happens next. Based on what would have been expected of Intermediate wave B, we will now assume Intermediate B has completed and begin to forecast Intermediate wave C. The plots for Minor waves A and B and end point for Intermediate wave B are plotted on the chart. This also means this first week of 2023 should move below the high from December 29, 2022 for a few weeks. ============================================ Current location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: C Location ID: 152BBC The data for Intermediate wave A has not changed from above which was 15 trading days long, drop of 278.13 points for rise over run of 18.542. With the assessed conclusion of Intermediate wave B, it lasted 4 trading days, rose 35.81 points for a rise over run of 8.953 points/day. Intermediate wave B retraced wave A’s length by only 26.67% and retraced it’s movement by 12.88%. The centermost lines in the chart above outline the potential endpoints for Intermediate wave C. Based on waves ending in 2BBC, Intermediate C could last 6, 8, 11, or 12 trading days. No one value stands out. The movement extension quartiles are very compact at 127.13%, 130.095%, 133.06%. These levels are light blue above. Based on waves ending in BBC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 8 trading days. Secondary agreement is at 5 and 12 days. Many points all tie for third most agreement. The movement extension quartiles are 104.14%, 121.565%, 127.47%. The new levels are the yellow lines above. Based on waves ending in BC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 2, 4, 8, 12, and 15 days. The second most agreement is at 5 trading days long. Third most agreement is at 16 days. The movement extension quartiles are at 108.66%, 133.315%, 147.17%. These levels are the white lines in the middle section above. Based on all of these considerations it looks like we are in for a down week to begin 2023. I have placed the end of Intermediate wave C (which is also the end of Primary wave B around 3663 on January 11, 2023. That means we could drop a little less than 200 points over the next week and a half. All things considered with the market’s volatility over the past year, this will be slow and likely full of indecisive trading. The rightmost set of retracement lines outline the overall retracement of Primary wave B in relation to Primary wave A. This target bottom would place the overall retracement around 70% of Primary wave A’s gain of 600+ points. What could be the catalyst for this final bottom? I have us rising strong until the summer of 2023 with highs above 4400-4600 range. January 10th and 11th will be quiet on the economic news front, however, the latest CPI read will be January 12th. This could be the catalyst. There are likely 2 ways to consider this number and things to remember. Inflation really accelerated one year ago. Inflation is likely high, but when considering where we were one year ago it should drop significantly. Therefore, the algorithmic trading computers will likely see a low print as a high win for the Fed and its monetary policies of the prior year. Although this is hiding a major issue, people will not care to look at the actual cause. A low print will start the moonshot the market is soon to face. I will have plenty of time in the coming months to explain why the market top in mid-2023 will be followed by a likely 40-50% drop in the market, but who cares. Enjoy the quick gains and be ready to play it safe later.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Estimated Path To Next SummerFull analysis to follow with specific near-term levels. Prior Intermediate 5 did not move as expected so that likely puts us inside of Primary wave B heading down. Early estimates have us in Primary B Intermediate A Minor 3 Minute 2 This means wave 3 of 3 is next with the inflation report tomorrow morning. Early signs per this would have November inflation hotter than expected. Fed also determines next rate hike on Wednesday. Looks like first near-term bottom could be prior to Christmas followed by highs after New Year while most of January points down. The January bottom should hold for quite some time as we should rally after the late January low until the early summer. The final downturn is still slated to begin in early to mid summer for northern hemisphere folks. Early estimates still place the final bottom around 2200-2400 by March 2025.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Will we ride wave 5 up for 4 days?Similar to last night, the market appears to have hit its cue for a more convincing bottom today. Using the 3918 bottom as the end of Intermediate wave 4 until proven otherwise, we will begin to look at the end of Intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave A inside of this Cycle B. Based on waves ending in 2BA5, the models agree the most that wave 5 could last 10 days, with the second most agreement at 1, 3, 14, and 32 trading days in length. The quartiles for movement extension off Intermediate wave 3 are 114.64%, 159.625% (median), and 204.63%. These are the blue levels on the chart above and they respectively correlate with 4159.42, 4340.42, 4521.50. Based on historical waves ending in BA5, the models agree the most on wave 5 lasting 4 days, then 10 days, while the next tie at 1, 2, 3, 11, and 18 days. The quartiles for movement extensions are at 114.64%, 116.69%, 155.66% which brings the values closer to my original forecasts around 4200. Respectively the news levels are 4167.66 and 4324.46 while being the yellow lines above. Lastly, the valuable while less precise data is based on waves ending in A5. Models agree with 2 days first, then 3 days, 10 days, 4 days, 19 days, and a solid tie at 1, 5, 9 and 11 trading days for potential lengths. The quartiles are slightly less while the third quartile repeats at 155.66%. First quartile is 112.36% (4150.24) and the median extension is only 119.84% (4180.34). Most of the targets fall below 4200 which keeps the top within 250 points of today’s low. Even 250 points in 5 days or less is a tall feat and unlikely as the next inflation report waits around the corner. Trendline resistance is decreasing quickly and is all below the prior Intermediate wave 3 top. This could insinuate three scenarios. 1) Where I marked the end of Intermediate wave 3 could be the end of Intermediate wave 5 and we are only heading lower from here. 2) The trendline proves a solid resistance and we do not take out the prior high at 4100.51. 3) We briefly break above the trendline resistance forming a bull trap and hitting other levels of resistance between 4150-4250. If the first case is true, the declines should continue tomorrow, and we will not head toward 4100 this week. The second case could hold true if we slowly move upward without conviction. The third case would likely require larger movements over the next two days to even have a chance at holding true. Regardless we shall see which one occurs. My initial call of Intermediate wave 5 lasting 5 days does not appear to be an option from the models, even though 3 days for Intermediate wave 4 was not a strong choice I stuck with it. The models had strength at 2 and 3 days in length, but we need to at least get above 4100 which is nearly 160 points from today’s close. That would equate to a 100% retracement of Intermediate wave 3 which is rare. There is a strong pocket of data placing the top between 4150-4180 which is where I will target. Three days is not enough time, so I think it takes at least 4. Four days will be sometime next Monday, which still puts the top before the pre-market release on Tuesday of the latest inflation reading. If the days and levels hold true, we are looking for an average daily gain of 52-60 points per day. We likely wont get those gains each day so some would have to leap beyond that. If these gains do not begin tomorrow we are either delayed or the inflation report WILL NOT be the downward catalyst. Let us see what tomorrow brings!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Elliott Wave indicates another hot inflation reportWe believe we have finished Intermediate wave 3 after an extended Minor 5 and are somewhere into Intermediate wave 4 which should bottom soon. The full wave identity is 152BA4. Based on waves ending in 2BA4. Intermediate 4 will likely last no more than 3 trading days which would end tomorrow. The quartile movement retracements are at 20.04%, 26.20%, and 32.36%. We surpassed the 26.05% level today which was 3995.07. The 32.36% is the third quartile and that would place the bottom around 3970.31. These values are light blue. Based on waves ending in BA4, most model agreement stands at a length of 1-2 days while 3 days remains likely. Regarding the retracement levels, the first quartile and median are repeated values while the third quartile is at 48.55% for a potential retracement. This would place the bottom around 39.05.20. These values are yellow on the chart Finally, historic waves ending in only A4 provides many more datapoints, however they may be less concise from the precision provided in the prior two paragraphs. Strongest model agreement places the length at 2 days, followed by 1 day, then 6, 3, 10, and 4 days. Regarding the retracements, quartile values repeat again for the first two while the third quartile is near the 61.8% Fib (low at 3851.85) Based on these datapoints, the models are leaning to a length of two total days for Intermediate 4 which would mean the bottom has already occurred at the time of writing. I am still leaning on a possibility of 3 days meaning we could see a new low early tomorrow before a likely rise into Intermediate wave 5 for which I will consider tops later. Early thoughts has Intermediate wave 5 lasting around 5 trading days before we begin the next downturn. Early thoughts to the top should be slightly above current resistance setting up a bull trap and snap back down. These five trading days not including tomorrow (if we achieve a new low for Intermediate wave 4) would begin on Wednesday and end around early next week. This aligns with the Inflation report on Tuesday. If this is the catalyst, inflation likely rose higher than expected and Fed backtracks on cooling down in December which would re-spiral the market for the next month or two.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3