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Stonksignals

Possible Wild Week Before More Months of DeclineThis chart depicts potential movement over the next 2 weeks based on my application of Elliott Wave Theory and historical data for the S&P 500. I currently have the index in in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). I have two sets of targets based on my analysis of Primary wave B and its historical relationships as well as Intermediate C in Primary B and its historical relationships. Primary B (1532B) Primary B began when Primary wave A ended on February 24, 2022 at 4114.65. Primary A began on January 4, 2022 when the market topped at 4818.62. Primary A lasted 35 trading days and dropped 703.97 points from top to bottom which is a rise over run (R/R) (move / days) of -20.113. My models forecast Primary B to last 4, 13, 18, 19, or 28 days based on similar 32B wave data. The most agreement is on 18 days, with secondary agreement on 13, 19, and 28. For context, day 13 is March 15, 18 is March 22, 19 is March 29, and 28 is April 5. My models further forecast the end of this wave occurring between 4498.62 and 4567.92. There are two pockets of agreement for the possible end. The first is 4498.62, 4498.63, and 4498.67. The second is slightly larger with 4555.33, 4555.36, 4559.33). Additional data comes from the historical R/R data observed in a Primary B. I have applied R/R data to the potential length outcomes from the beginning of the prior paragraph. If Primary B lasts 18 days, the application of a historical R/R of 23.404 gives us a target price of 4535.92. Staying with 18 days there is another R/R pointing to 4567.92. At 19 days, R/R data of 23.404 places a target area of 4559.33. Lastly, a 28 length with historical R/R of 14.496 points to 4520.53. Another analyzed dataset comes from the relationship of the move between Primary A and Primary B (simple division of A/B). The historical ratios applied to A’s move of 703.97 provides the following targets: 4498.63, 4555.35, 4613.67, 4654.20, and 4769.09. Intermediate C (1532BC) Intermediate C is believed to have begun on March 8, 2022 when Intermediate B concluded its 3 wave pattern downward. Intermediate wave C should be comprised of 5 Minor waves ultimately leading upward. Identifying waves current waves requires skill and is not always perfect. I believe we finished Minor wave 1 (up) on March 9 at 3:33 pm EDT. As of now, I have Minor 2 finishing at the Friday closing low of 4200.49 at 3:59 pm EDT. I do not like to identify the end of a wave in the present as it almost always is wrong. If we gap up on Monday, this may confirm Minor 2 has ended. Which would put the market in wave 3 which should easily surpass the Minor 1 top of 4299.40 within the next 2-3 days. My models forecast Intermediate C to last 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, or 17 trading days. The strongest agreement is 6 days (8 data points) followed by 5 days (7). Day 5 is March 15 and day 6 is March 16 which also align with the dates from the forecasts based on Primary B. The price targets range wider than before with 4422.51-4592.93. This range contain 3 pockets of interest with the strongest agreement in the 4572-4587 range. Pocket 2 is 4497-4512 and 3 is 4422-4437. All prices of interest are: Pocket 3 = 4422.51, 4423.777, 4424.333, 4427.557, 4429.953, 4430.19, 4434.144 Additional = 4439.81-4443.654-4447.915-4448.556-4454.057-4459.259-4463.06-4466.083-4467.93-4469.093-4475.106-4484.17-4486.8 Pocket 2 = 4497.004, 4498.72, 4503.082, 4504.61, 4506.658, 4507.996, 4509.491, 4510.29 Additional = 4512.412-4515.101-4519.56-4520.647-4528.104-4529.941-4533.79-4533.86-4548.6-4550.257-4554.416-4556.682-4559.29-4569.676-4571.012 Pocket 1 = 4574.69, 4575.31, 4575.67, 4578.87, 4580.78, 4581.663, 4584.838 Additional = 4585.802-4586.547-4586.601-4589.385-4591.954-4592.937 Another analytic model determines the relationship between wave C’s movement and the total movement of the larger wave, in this case the larger wave is Primary B. Movement for waves ending in 2BC tend to makeup between 59-95% of the overall macro wave’s movement. Similar to waves ending in 2BC are wave ending in 4BC or BBC. 4BC waves similarly make up 36-99%, while BBC can makeup 30-95%. Intermediate C’s movement would have to make up 86% or greater then the entire movement for Primary B in order for any of the current targets above to be achieved. The reason for this is that Intermediate B nearly retraced 100% of all the gains achieved by Intermediate wave A (actual retracement was 86.303%). Use the table below considering if Intermediate C’s movement makes up x% of Primary B’s movement, this coincides with the listed price targets: 86% = 4422.51-4430.19 87% = 4439.81-4454.057 88% = 4463.06-4486.80 89% = 4497.00-4520.647 90% = 4533.79-4559.29 90.49% (a prior value) = 4554.416-4584.838 91% = 4578.87-4611.34 These are the reasons for my forecast squares in the chart above. We shall see what actually takes place. Regardless, we could be looking at quick and large movement up in the very near-term. Primary C is next which could take the market down well below 3931.00 with a bottom between May 11 and June 2. I will provide more context as we complete more waves.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Where Does The Index Go From HereThis is the plan based on the daily data tracking back to 1877 (my projected beginning of the Grand SuperCycle for you EW followers). Looking at a solid market top around the month of April 2022. I have charted the likely ups and downs to it. For now, looking at a near-term top around this Friday at noon which should begin a roughly 13-15 trading day drop of about 221 to 261 points. All other points are estimates for now. I plan to update this path as we move through it. Wave 3 could provide great opportunities. After April 2022 will likely see many rough months, but have no fear as all-time highs will be back....eventually.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
9
Imminent Drop For CHRW?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box for which we are due. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 19, 2021 with a closing price of 97.56. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 95.8 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.929% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.523% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.32% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 13 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CHRWShort
by StockSignaler
Market Set To Drop, NTES With It?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 22, 2021 with a closing price of 102.24. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 99.35 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.51% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.27% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 16.765% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:NTESShort
by StockSignaler
Target Box Pivot Points For Spire Inc 1 of 2I have studied 15 recent buy signals for Spire and bumped the data against historical movements when similar buy signals occur. This is the cluster of all boxes. I will clean up in the next post for my final call on target bottoms and target tops. Regardless. The BUY signals stretch from August 19 through August 27. The larger PURPLE boxes are projected bottoms based on all historical data. The smaller PINK boxes are more specific bottoms based on the median data historical bottoms. While the bottom should occur in a purple box, my specific goals are in the pink boxes. The larger BLUE boxes are target tops (likely after the move downward to PURPLE box areas) based on all historical movement. The smaller YELLOW boxes are the more specific target tops. The next post will have the specifics.
NYSE:SRLong
by StockSignaler
RSI flashing overbought for CDNABased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on August 25, 2021 with a closing price of 78.47. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 76.99 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.886% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.0% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.694% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 25 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CDNAShort
by StockSignaler
Multiple Overbought Signals Pointing To A DipIn the case of CPRT, 5 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. I really like this one because the RSI signaled SELL a few days prior and it is an early warning signal of near-term movement I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 3 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance. The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play). All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
NASDAQ:CPRTShort
by StockSignaler
Chubb has been oversold on news. Buy This Dip?I have changed up how to best display projected movement. In the case of CB, 1 of my algorithms signaled a BUY on March 22, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move up, but sometimes it may continue to move down first. I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 3 Hour chart after a BUY signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement downward before the stock finally moved upward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement downward, before the stock moved upward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential bottom in this instance. The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final top. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could rise the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never rise (and the green boxes may never come into play). All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
NYSE:CBLong
by StockSignaler
Another decliner set to drop 5% from recent signal close priceMYRG signaled a SELL upon closing the first bar on the 3 hour chart on February 25, 2021. SELL was signaled on five of our algorithms which has never occurred before. In fact the SAG and MTF have never signaled SELL at the same time for this equity on the 3 hour chart either. I have drawn the potential movement lines. As I mention, the signal can be premature and the stock might still rise before it finally falls. I have mapped out all of the potential movement paths with final target bottoms. The average delay is 3-5 bars, but the very next bar after the signal saw the stock climb to the reversal zone and the stock may not actually move above 61.00 until it drops below 57.00 or even 56.00. The full free analysis is on my site in the signature block below.
NASDAQ:MYRGShort
by StockSignaler