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Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 16 Sep 2019On Friday the daily range was 53 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 57 pips. I would consider it as a hit and pretty surprising considering the range on Thursday was 159 pips but I appreciate that it probably be skewed by the fact that it was ECB Rate Decision day, hunting day for the institutional traders looking for liquidity. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 57 pips. I am anticipating a 65-75 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.11100 - 1.11200 prices level(equal-ish high with Friday's high and 27th and 28th August 2019's high) and a quick stop hunt at those levels which coincided with Weekly High. If price closes inside or above it, I will be looking to short EURUSD. No Risk Events Today.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : GBPUSD 13 September 2019At the beginning of the week, price closed above previous Friday's high and that Monday high became a strong resistance level for this pair until today. I was bearish bias even until now. Why am I bearish bias even though the P1 had been activated thanks to the institutional traders failed to be very subtle with their stop hunts. I have mentioned in my other posts that they use risk events like its hunting season. Brokers widened their stops and oceans and oceans of orders from market participants (from retail to smaller fish commercials participants) Whilst it is now bullish mode from the P1 activation (price close below Tue-Wed low), my discretion would ignore this activation and will wait for a P1 activation after price close at 1.23750-1.23900 and then I will wait for the bearish trigger. I doubt it will hit the 20-week downside projection by NY close today but do take note that since Monday, this pair failed to reach it's basic 20-day average daily range. If the price keep failing to reach the minimum average daily range then it "owes" the market and indeed plenty of range needs to be paid and that usually means a very volatile pay up follows. (Please check my post regarding daily range and how it is a useful analysis :
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDCHF Manipulation ZoneApabila nampak level yang terlalu jelas, maka besar kemungkinan tempat itu akan menjadi zon yang diperhatikan dan apabila zon itu menjadi tempat perhatian maka banyak "orders" akan duduk disana. When you see obvious levels, you can bet EVERYONE will see it. When everyone sees it, then there will be A LOT of interest at those zones. When there are a lot of interest, begets liquidity for the market to latch onto. Price had been trading above Monday's high and currently testing the weekly high. Another zone that big players looking at (too simplistic you might argue but think about it, retail traders and other participants look at the obvious and the ones that make sense to them. Picking a weekly high seems arbitrary I agree but it is what is. I am currently bearish bias "standby mode" at the moment but I would feel better and comfortable if the price trades higher into one of the two levels I marked on the chart. Please be wary trading this pair though as it is somewhat correlated with EURUSD and this pair (EURUSD) super duper sensitive with the major risk event tomorrow : ECB Rate Decision. Be careful out there guys.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : CHFJPY Sept 10thPrice still trading inside last week's range / Friday's range. So far, it has been an "inside day" week as the price didn't even close above Friday's high or low. I have identified several price zones that (based on my personal believe where recent turning points and/or zones that have equal highs or lows have clusters of retail orders) I believe institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, LARGE prop firms) are looking to exploit to get enough liquidity to eventually get their entire, if not some, of the positions they intended to do for the week or month. I have marked Monday's high and low to simplify my process. When/if price close above the Monday high, and preferably higher tapping in the liquidity pool above it, I will wait for a bearish trigger to get into the trade. The arrow I put int the chart is just a rough estimation where one of my several take profit levels would be. Vice versa for the bullish signal. To better understand my concept in navigating the market for intraday moves, please read the post linked below
by sufiansaid
Read the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD Sept 10thThis pair has certainly moved to the downside followed by the bank's price manipulation around 1555.225-1555.400 You can read the post about where the current wave originated (the setup that I missed. Yes writing this isn't easy for me : Price closed below last week's and Friday's low. Monday was pretty quiet and low volume trading day as this pair didn't reach the 20-day average daily range, which I believe it will eventually be "paid" the following days which it did during Sydney session today. Price also trading inside the liquidity pool that I have determined but there is also price zones that I have determined below it and I would love it if price reach in that zone. I would be an interested buyer at those prices, but of course, after there is a bullish trigger. Depending how volatile this pair going to be this week, if this pair goes off to the upside with momentum, price entering the liquidity pool at 1520-1535, I will be looking for a bearish signal and would seriously consider it as a continuation of the bearish wave You can read the linked posts below to understand the context of this post and also to understand my concept in navigating the market
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of The Chart : Asian Session AUDNZD It's Monday, it's still in Asian Session. Just wait. I am not one to predict/choose a direction out of thin air. Having said that though, I would love it if price close above those delicious liquidity pool haven 1.0700-1.0720. If the price reaches there, I would set my intraday bias into Bearish and will short this pair once a bearish technical signal been triggered. Please read my post (linked below) about Friday/Monday relationship as a concept to navigate the market more simply and efficiently.
by sufiansaid
Reading The Right Side of The Chart : EURUSDJust imagine every turning point of a trend or a continuation of a trend, a fractal if you like, lies underneath or above it clusters of stop losses that the institutional traders look for to get liquidity. It sounds that it's evil, but whether we hate it or despise it, that is how the market works: you want to buy, you need someone willing to sell and vice versa. Putting buy stops and sell stops (in a form of stoploss or pending order) is another way of saying "I am willing to sell my position here". On Mondays, particularly before the London open, the Sydney/Asian bank traders would seek liquidity in order to get their orders filled. Since market volume generally very thin, hence stop hunting reign supreme at this time so they could get the liquidity needed to get their orders in. Actionable : Using my Friday/Monday relationship concept (I call it Phase 2, don't ask why), I would wait if the price breaks and close Friday low (the deeper the better, preferably at 1.1000 - 1.0900) and then I will look for a bullish signal. And Vice versa.
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Monday with Tue/Wed RelationshipThis write up is an extension to this post : The concept is when the price on Tuesday or Wednesday broken and close above the Monday high, generally that potentially could be the "anchor" /high of the week hence the intraday trend of that week will rooted from this. Vice versa. Of course, this doesn't happen 100% of the time but it happens repetitively. Usually, this block (Tuesday-Wednesday) is, very often, the "final stage"/"final push" from the institutions with their price-fixing/stop hunts/liquidity hunt. It tends to extend until Thursday or Friday but generally, those block (Thursday-Friday) tend to be a profit-taking day for the banks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
1
Risk Events - U.S Jobs Numbers Happy Hours for Stop Hunters Friday was an inside day www.investopedia.com , pretty funny for most new traders who were taught that NFP day is pretty volatile and results in high range day. If there is no liquidity = price won't move. When the U.S Job numbers came out, I projected the zone of manipulation would be around 1.10500-1.10600 price zones(@itsReal307 would confirm this as I mentioned it in our whatsapp group ibb.co ) / ibb.co and claimed that the bullish move was nothing more than a stop hunt.
by sufiansaid
Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?). I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release. In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
by sufiansaid
Stop hunts - The retail traders worst enemy.STOP LOSING TO THE SHARKS Why do 95% of traders fail? Because you learn from the masses, then you lose with the masses. You are being fooled by the banks & institutions. The very core of technical trading revolves around support & resistance. You are taught to sell if price breaks support and buy if price breaks resistance, but you aren't taught to win - you are taught to lose. The big cats in the market want you to follow these procedures so that they can manipulate the market to their benefit. When price breaks support, all the retail traders start closing out their buys - (stop losses hit) - and entering sells to follow the 'newly formed trend.' But after a 10-50 pip drop beneath support, price sharply reverses and shifts back to the upside with strong momentum, once again wiping out retail traders - and providing market makers with the best possible prices for optimal trades. So stop trading like a retail trader, start thinking like a shark. Until then, you WILL lose.
Education
by jeafxtrading
2
BITCOIN WARNING: Optimal Whale Play Will Hit You! Lets jump right into it - we dont have time to waste, because you might once again be caught by the whales. D4rkEnergY is the master when it comes to Market Psychology, and have warned you many times before, when there were risk of being Stop Hunted. Let me start to say, that Bitcoin is extremely bullish if we zoom out, and take a look at the Daily or Weekly chart. BTC is in a Bull Market, and your job is to spot where its likely we will have a pull back, so you can buy the dips. Let me also stress, that it is likely, that we will go down right away to my ORANGE Trend line - but this post serve the purpose to give you an idea about another very likely scenario, which will be the optimal Whale Play. 335 Irregular/Running Flat ABC Correction This correction is not unlikely, and we have seen it play out before - not long time ago - on the 4th wave in the extrension inside the 3rd wave extension. Take a look at the Long vs Short indicator. We have a huge disproportion between Longs vs Shorts, which give the whales a good incentive to go up straight away. In this correction we will go ABOVE the 3rd wave (123.6% of wave), which will kill tons of Shorts. Hereafter we will go down again, which then will kill all the Longs who believe that this an impulse wave. And lastly the Shorts will once again be fooled, when we make a super short retracement on C (61.8% of AB), which is normal in an irregular/running flat ABC correction. I hope it helped you. Please be aware of this likely scenario - and remember that LIKE! - D4 Loves You! <3
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
28
The 2 Most Likely BITCOIN Scenarios You NEED to Know About!We are back again, and D4rkEnergY will present for you the MOST LIKELY Bitcoin scenarios. As you know D4 is here to spread Love and Wisdom to the Crypto Community. He is the unstoppable force in the Universe, that makes everything expand, and even accelerate. Yesterday I told you about feelings, and that trading is hard, because you often have to do something which is contrary to your feelings to profit from trading. You can read the post here: We still dont have a final answer when it comes to this wave. It could be a B-wave, or it could be an impulse wave, which will take us directly to 16k USD. The Structure is Bullish Looking at classical charting we are trading inside a neutral triangle, BUT because we are coming from a DOWNtrend, there are a in theory a bigger chance, that we will break to the DOWNSIDE. On the other hand, because we are making Higher Lows in an more steep angle AND because we are above 11,6k with big support, it makes it more likely we will break to the UPside. Also the big disproportion between Longs and Shorts, helps the Longs because its an incentive for the Whales to go up and Stop Hunt the shorts. So we have some uncertainty, but everything taken into account, the structure is more bullish than bearish! D4 Loves You <3 Please leave a LIKE if you appreciate the content!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by D4rkEnergY
16
Bears Are Begging Whales for Help, But BTC-Bulls Play it Wise!Boom, another Stop Hunt. Bears havent had a chance for long time. They were all grounded in armlocks, and were shouting for help. Usually the Whales are on the bulls side, but once in a while when the Bulls get too greedy and too confident and cocky, they go and punish the Longs! 700 USD Stop Hunt in no time was it. And yesterday we saw a similar scenario. It was a 1,000 USD Stop Hunt in no time. But notice how QUICK it got bought up - it tells us, that the bulls are wise and fast. They are determined, which you also can see from the Higher Lows they keep making. As you can see D4rkEnergY is back again, and again, and he will continue to spread love and wisdom to all his friends and followers! Pushing Forward Killing Shorts - And Boom! Since 5,000 USD Bulls and Whales have pushing forward and killed Shorts (liquidated or hit their Stop Loss) again and again. And then sometimes, out of the blue, when TOO many people starts to believe in the rally its time to punish the longs. There is really not anything new to this - I have mentioned it again and again. D4s theory has been proven again and again to be correct. That was also what I mentioned it would happen in my interview with TradingView, where I predicted, when we were at 7.4k, that we would go above 10k and make a New All Time High. You can watch it here: www.tradingview.com Confirmation What also seems confirmed was my theory about, that it was a clear goal to go to at least 11,000 USD before we would see a Stop Hunt so we wouldnt go below 10k. Now its the second time it happened when we just went above 11k. Now What? Right now, you can see, that we here on the 4h chart have made a beautiful ascending triangle, which is a bullish structure. So we will most likely go down now, and hereafter go up again. I have given you a target Im really happy to have you guys on this journey together with me - we are gonna make money together, and I have already got so many DMs from people who are thanking me for my calls! You are welcome! With Love from D4 - Please give a LIKE!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by D4rkEnergY
4