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XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that. But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common. In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s. For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence NatGas - No Moon Until Doom Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct. A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally. Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming. When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal. On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high. It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report. An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position. It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down. The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example. The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level. There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong. This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it. All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase. Things can change any time.
NYSE:XOM
by LordWrymouth
Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My BeerThis post is a continuation of a previous post, which is based on a longer-term analysis: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? With Wednesday-Friday and Monday morning's long-awaited dump into the fabled double bottom around $7.4, natural gas can only be considered to have formally shifted into a bearish market structure, based on both the 4H and Daily candles. Note that the dump also breached range equilibrium. What this means, is that it's finally time to look for a 45-day short play on natural gas. Remember, Freeport is supposed to re-open for export to Europe in mid-November, so in principle you'd want to see the downside manipulation occur before then. However, all this time, big firms have been shipping U.S. natural gas via boat to Europe, and making more than $100 million a shipment in the process . Demand has been so enormous that there aren't enough ships on the planet available to meet it. So it's not that U.S. Henry Hub pricing hasn't reflected the demand problem caused by Europe shooting itself in the knees trying to spite Putin and Russia so it can fit in with cool kids in the Globalist Bloc. It has. It's just that the reality is, no matter the news and how it's framed, an energy crisis is coming to North America too. You just won't see it until inflation starts to dip. Energy prices have to come down for inflation to dip. Once inflation dips, it will rip again, because it hasn't topped yet. Anyone who says inflation has peaked obviously can't read The Diagram, and nobody who is unable to read The Diagram is worthy of being a Doctor. Regarding price action, once something as turbulent as natural gas dumps, and dumps a lot, and takes out key pivots, you have to be careful. At present the market makers are still employing these patterns where they seek and destroy to the downside and then quickly seek and destroy the upside. It's very hard to catch a truly trending market at the moment, and so you have to employ a surgical strike style of trading and positioning rather than trying to get long or get short and rack up the Sklansky Bucks comfortably. For example, the stock indexes look like they're going to bounce, and probably hard, before the next big leg down, regardless of what comes out of Wednesday's FOMC: SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It With natural gas, what I'm really looking for here to position puts for November is a bounce into the $8.9 range. The problem is, the natural gas market makers are not so polite. They don't want you along for their ride. It's their ride, and if you're good enough to figure it out, you can make money. But if you can't, they will buck you off and you can watch from the sidelines. They're a lot like angry cowboys, and so there is a possibility that is far from negligible that a number like $9.6 prints again before we see the next move down. Or at least a number that starts with $9. Regardless, in my opinion, once this bear is finished growling and knocking over trees, we will actually begin to see trending markets again. They won't trend for all that long, but you won't get bounces this time. It'll just landslide or gap down to where it wants to go and collect all the badly positioned longs or the longs who somehow never took profit during a run to $10. WTI Oil, likewise, is in the same boat. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls Although its price pattern is more notable in that it once again traded back to the $81 gap and bounced again. If it runs the $91 double top it left behind and keeps going up, it might just be a bull run again. But if it just crushes $91 and starts to fall, you can surely expect numbers like $69 and $50 are en route, no matter what the fundamentals say about global demand. What you're ultimately looking at with the positioning of the markets, whether it be copper, soybeans, stocks, is you're looking at first some bouncing and then what is likely a market-wide sell off with some days of panic that is simultaneously subdued and overexaggerated. All of which is designed to have you sell low and then buy back higher with half your account left intact. Consider that last week's CPI dump took 200 points from the SPX in a few hours, but only raised the VIX by like 3 points. VIX 28 is now a ceiling. VIX 40-42 will be where you find the bottoms. VIX 72 will come when the markets truly start to head to the downside. After the global avalanche is finished, you'll likely see the Nasdaq be extremely strong for a few months. SPX will be okay, but will be drug down by energy companies, which won't do particularly well because they'll be drug down by natural gas and WTI accumulating at low prices. Dow will probably be better than SPX but worse than Nasdaq on account of its defense contractors likewise accumulating at low prices. Once retail is done gorging themselves stupid on $30 SNAP and $45 BBBY and $198 AAPL, reality will unfold. Stocks will crash, hard. WTI and Natural Gas and other commodities (Except for silver and gold. Seriously. Quit being a moonboy on ancap stuff. It'll rot your teeth.) will make major new highs and energy companies and defense contractors will become the safe haven in the markets. When those days unfold, you can expect major geopolitical turbulence, which can include as much as the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. You can also see significant natural and manmade disasters unfold. It won't be a pleasant time. But you should know that what unfolds will appear chaotic but actually be orderly. Everything unfolding in the world is orderly and well arranged. This world will not be destroyed, although there will be significant hardship for many regions, and few will find the outcome comfortable. But for now, you can focus on trying to make money. You have the difficult task of trying to find a time to short natural gas inside of a 15% possible range. You can short $8.9, but they really might take that $9.3 pivot. If you wait for the $9.3 pivot, you might not get filled and miss the move. This kind of move back up is also designed to dump the ETFs, many of which trade on 2x leverage (10% natural gas move = 20% ETF dump), so big pockets can get fat long for the real dump. It's very annoying. They're really very annoying about how they do things. It's a constant gut check and a series of difficult and suboptimal circumstances, because time is an excellent weapon and they use it very well. You should know that all the decisions you face when trading and all the loss and gain you come across are actually opportunities to cultivate your mind and your heart. They're chances to improve. Every thought and feeling you have while doing this is you forging yourself like quicksilver being refined inside of a crucible powered by burning hydrogen. Everything depends on how you improve your heart and employ your rationality. Fear and greed are your greatest enemies.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
NEW POSITION $SU Target 26.22 for 46.27%NEW POSITION $SU Target 26.22 for 46.27% Next add level at 16.29 ----- — On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average. ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible. I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading.
NYSE:SULong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
You wanted an energy pick?650M of the total shares of 1.5B is already on the short side. The company will continue with his shares buyback program : Suncor Energy shares outstanding for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 were 1.525B, a 1.87% decline year-over-year. Suncor Energy 2019 shares outstanding were 1.561B, a 4.17% decline from 2018. Suncor Energy 2018 shares outstanding were 1.629B, a 2.16% decline from 2017. Suncor Energy 2017 shares outstanding were 1.665B, a 3.29% increase from 2016. I expect a multi-days breakout, that means if you wake up one morning and the stock is up 30% i don't sell. It will continue for at least a week. Trade at your own risk!
TSX:SULong
by sevensphere
17