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Surprise

SURPRISING SCIENTIFIC FACT ABOUT TRADINGBINANCE:BTCUSD 1. Three-quarters of dealers rated themselves above average, which is consistent with results from other psychological studies of overconfidence. Statistically, only 50% should have rated themselves as above average without the effect of overconfidence. 2. Dealers also overestimate their professional success, an effect known as the “better-than-average-effect”. 3. Trading experience eliminates the reluctance to realize losses. 4. Individual investors who think that their investment skills or past performance are above trade more frequently. 5. By examining over 400 traders with trading experience over 12 years at a bank, currency dealers show two types of overconfidence. They tend to overestimate the precision of their information and their personal competence. 6. The most senior traders are no less overconfident than their more junior colleagues. 7. In theory, irrational traders will be driven out of asset markets by trading losses. However, the examination of 400 experienced traders indicates that overconfident currency traders are not driven out of the market despite losses. 8. Overconfidence among foreign exchange dealers could affect equilibrium exchange rates. 9. Chinese investors make trading mistakes (selling winners and hold on to losers), they are reluctant to realize their losses, they tend to be under-diversified, they seem to trade often and they show a representativeness bias. 10. Middle-aged investors, active investors, wealthier investors, experienced investors and those living in urban cities are often unable to overcome behavioral biases. 11. Investors who were successful before trading online believed that their successes are due to their own investment abilities and become overconfident. Once individuals start trading online, investors have access to vast amount of data which can lead to the illusion of knowledge. Furthermore, managing their own trades by the click of a mouse leads to the illusion of control. All of these factors lead to increased overconfidence. 12. The response of exchange rates to stop-loss orders is larger, and lasts longer, than the response to take-profit orders. 13. Stop-loss orders are sometimes triggered in waves. 14. The reversal frequency at round numbers is greater than the reversal frequency at arbitrary price levels in 79% of examined 10 day periods. 15. Exchange rates trend faster after crossing round numbers which suggest that stop-loss orders propagate trends. 16. Large stop-loss orders are tightly clustered near rates ending in 00. In contrast, very large take-profit orders are not clustered. 17. Adding technical analysis, like moving averages to investment rules, can outperform other trading strategies. 18. Significant excess returns are possible using technical analysis in foreign exchange markets. 19. Technical trading rules exist for NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 but not for DJIA and S&P 500. Rules of technical analysis even generate significant profits and improve unprofitable trading rules. 20. Technical trading profits have gradually declined over time in 12 futures markets. 21. Stock prices temporarily rise following widely talked about events before reversing to pre-event levels over the next five days. On average, individuals lose 0.88% when prices reverse. 10 22. Attention-grabbing events lead active individual investors to be net buyers of stocks. 23. Individual investors who currently hold a company’s share, sell as prices increase during upper price limit events. 24. Individual investors are more likely to trade an S&P 500 index stock after an earnings announcement if that announce­ment was covered in the investor’s local newspaper. 25. The presence or absence of local media coverage is strongly related to the probability and magnitude of local trading. ❤️ Please, support my work with follow ,share and like, thank you! ❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
USDCAD: Vigilance for a controlled loss!More and more my posts are about controlled losses. I'm doing this because trading is mostly about controlling losses. Seriously, it is about taking affordable controlled losses at key areas in an instrument. This 3D time frame may not be the one to trade in. The value in higher time frames is about advanced vigilance for potential reversals of trends. A reversal can start in a lowly 5 min trend which then expands. So I'm watching out for a reversal pattern in 5 - 30 min time frames. The congestion zone shown (a structure area) can well be punctured deeply. So it doesn't mean that I am relying on that only. That means I'm well aware that price can go much lower. There is no prediction in this chart. It's a heads-up. The RSI on the 3D time frame has been hovering below 50. This suggests a compression pattern, possibly getting ready for a bust north. However, strange things happen. Price could take a sudden collapse below the congestion zone before rocketing north. Or - price can break down and move far further south. Whatever happens; I'm not bothered. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
Is another US Dollar surprise coming?Some saw a few weeks ago the first pump on the US Dollar. Seasoned traders know that generally first pumps north off a structure area or approximate double bottom usually fall back. Now - the US Dollar is nothing to fool around with. It is wild and very unpredictable. This is a hefty macro-economic index - a basket of 6 currencies. It's the USD vs 6 currencies. So, you can expect wildness! This bad boy will disrespect RSI's. When you least expect it, it will reverse. On the macro-economic time scale, it hardly follows chart formations closely (words chosen carefully). My identified kill zone is often not close to 100% correct. I expect price to bounce in, and out or under it. If you're looking for predictions this study is not for you. Okay, so on this chart I'm showing a theory of curves at the leading edge. I'm saying this: charts do not obey the patterns we see. Patterns create a probability. So somethings to watch: 1. Price approaching a structure zone. 2. Big retreat on first pump (no surprise there). 3. ATR on this time frame still means there is a switch for the north. 4. Theory of curves plus all the above suggest (not predict) that there may be further north side. As I always say, I do not know what price will do! This chart has value for those who dare to lose! Lose? Yes - you can't make money in trading unless you are prepared to lose. How much you lose is up to you - not the chart. Please. Please note this always. Ahhh.. but hold on. Am I saying that anybody has to trade this index? I am not! The value in watching the US Dollar index is in other markets e.g. forex pairs with USD in them, stock indices, commodities and metals. What about cryptos? They don't like a strong USD. That doesn't mean that cryptos are bound to die just because the Dollar index moves north. It means there can be heavy bearish pressure. Loads of the Big Boys were hedging the crashing USD with Bitcoin - in preference for Gold. (In fact at one stage BTC was 40x that of Gold). But if one wants to trade this index going long, my experience is that one has to be fortunate enough to find a >1 hr trend heading north. Macro-traders can enter this market on a 3D time frame. They've got zillions to burn. You ain't. The Big Boys have the muscle and they can wait a long time. As economies the world over open up - as projected - one can expect high demand for USD. If that happens the Dollar index heads north. I don't know when. So there are a number of different ways to view and value the gyrations of the US Dollar index. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
2
Did we miss judge or is this a fake breakoutI've added the Fibonaci here, since the bounce seems to not happen as fast or aggressive as anticipated! - We are lacking momentum... This could be a bearish sudden sign, though I do sense a cup and handle, which should also indicate a bullish trend, or at least a sleeping giant move... The fibonaci is my last ressort to believe that we still can hold our long position... if we fall through fibonaci lvl 50%, prepare for some scalping, in the name of SHORT! and trigger your stop loss. Untill a more trending pattern occurs this could mean we are going further down. :)
by Alexthh
6
Is a Dollar surprise coming?'Everybody' knows that the US Dollar is gonna die. Right? The prevailing wisdom is that QE Infinity will tank the Dollar. Well, it's not that simple. The Dollar's strength depends on numerous other factors, the key one is demand. Ahhhh.. so the USA - if you believe it - has conquered COVID-19, and international trade is about to be kickstarted. Or so the story goes. Whilst I'm sceptical, it could be true for a while. Lets say over the next two quarters. If a surge in demand happens - USD being liquid gold after the Gold Standard was abolished many moons ago. The chart shows that there is a 4 hour trend (amber line) heading north. Yes - it could fail, but the probability at this point is for the north. Sure - enough it may bounce through the trend line south and then rocket north. DXY is a wild one, so anything is possible. But what does that mean if USD strengthens over the next two or three quarters? It means there will be bearish pressure on stock indices, metals and some commodities. Bearish pressure doesn't mean they're all gonna correct. It's not that simple. What's the point of watching the USD in the DXY? Well you also gotta watch USD priced forex pairs. It gets complicated because USD affects stock indices which in turn affect forex. What does it all mean? It means 'avoid over confidence' in trading. Small profits taken from small position sizes across much volatility is no bad thing. They all add up. Large position sizes in a higher volatility is a good way to burn and account. Stay safe. Wash your hands. Protect your account. Avoid FOMO. Don't burn cash! Is that okay? Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
29
Tesla: Back on the HighwayTesla has had its fair share of bad news over the past year beating the stock down and making it a favorite of short selling bears for a bit. Well, those bears are counting their losses and will continue to do so. Tesla is reversing trend quickly on news of their surprise profit and 2-day 30% price rally, but then came the shake out. Now, the trend is picking up speed and volume and accumulation again. We've seen a crossover between the 63 day and 200 moving averages, and the ADX has shown a sharp and fast move into a rapidly forming uptrend. RSI is high indicating some pressure from speculation, but it's topping out and staying topped out the way stocks in a strong rally do. Rate of change, MACD, and relative strength in comparison to a 70/30 blended fund are all positive over the last week with indication of addition upside in store with the prevailing market resuming an uptrend.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by chuckination
Surprise? probabilities...So was I surprised by this 800$ crush? were you surprised? if you followed my ideas so far then I guess not... - We hit again and again into the 4h cloud resistances which included sma200 and ma200, we created many strong resistances... - Bulls had 1 last chance (Like I called on my last idea: ) to prove themselves that they can break these resistances, and for a moment there I even had hopes for them (Thus I didn't give signals for you guys even though I did enter shorts at the resistances again), the buying power was growing, the bullish volumes were growing and created highs, I seen so many groups and people call that this is going to be the big shot up.... and yet? they barely could handle with the first resistance, and not enough volume buying power to suppress it all... - There was no where to go anymore but below the symmetrical triangle - the bears won this round. Now don't get me wrong, we are still not in full confirmations that we are going down... after all even the descending triangle which we are going to test soon can still be valid for consolidation for 3 facts: - Descending triangles if they don't break down after 3-5 hits at the bottom, it weakens the descending pattern and making this 'floor' a very strong support. - Descending triangles if they don't break between 50-75% of their entire length, it not only weakens them but also shows a reversal pattern in the investors mood. which means we might create even stronger push up.. - Descending triangles, if the bullish candles are beginning to be more active then the bearish ones around the 50-75% of the triangle length, it means that we are heading for a very strong bullish pattern on which the bulls consolidated enough money to break the shit out of the market up... So what are our next probabilities?: #currentprice#9660 1. Bullish: we can enter now at 9600-9700, and wait for the little pullback until we gonna test the symmetrical resistance again (The longer it will take, the more resistances from the triangle will interrupt and make it even heavier for them to push above it). 2. Bearish: we can enter now at 9600-9700, as so far from many aspects (TA/FA/SA) it looks bad for the bulls in my perspective and due to previous ideas such as my bigger picture: (Which for some reason Tradingview lagged some of my lines there ^_^, sorry if it's a bit off, but it works out so far) 3. The best idea is to wait for 2 things: - More confirmations, like closing weekly/monthly on Sunday, which will tell us much more where are we heading... - More confirmations such as breaks of the resistance from the symmetrical bottom to go long, or break the resistance of the descending to go short... * I personally gonna try and either long if we pass 9700 entry 9710 sl 9600 tps: 9920, 9970, 10130, 10160, 10260 and I will have 10% left to run more until I feel enough is enough... dont forget to move sls accordingly to profits.. * Or short if we pass below 9600 entry 9690 sl 9700 tps: 9300, 8800, 8300, 7800, 7300 and I will have 10% left to run more until I feel enough is enough... These signals are valid for until sls hit, or until I will update otherwise. Good luck <3
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Hedgehog_king
Looking for earnings surprise from Cheetah Mobile - 1-day tradeCheetah Mobile has beaten earnings estimates on 8 out of its last 10 earnings dates. That makes it a good candidate to win again. Generally, when Cheetah Mobile beats estimates, it rises for just a single day and then falls again the day after. I've made a $500 bet that we get an earnings surprise, and I will liquidate the position tomorrow morning either way. As a general rule, companies whose stock price has declined in recent weeks get a bigger bump from an earnings surprise and a smaller drop from an earnings miss. In addition to having routinely beaten estimates, Cheetah Mobile has also seen a 30% drop in share price since March. That makes it a good candidate for an earnings play.
NYSE:CMCMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith