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Swaps

Navigating the Complexities of Forex Swap RatesNavigating the Complexities of Forex Swap Rates Forex swap rates, pivotal in currency trading, reflect the cost of holding a position overnight. This article unpacks swaps, offering clarity on their calculation and impact. Even seasoned traders may be confused with the complexity of swaps. It’s vital to learn about how these costs relate to effective strategy and fee management. Dive into the complexities of forex swaps and learn how they can influence decisions and overall performance in the ever-evolving trading world. Understanding Forex Swap Rates For traders, understanding forex market swap rates is crucial. A swap is essentially the interest differential paid or charged to a trader when they hold a position overnight. The concept hinges on the idea that when you trade currencies, you are effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. Hence, these rates come into play, reflecting the cost of the process. The swap rate definition boils down to the interest rate difference between the two currencies involved in a trade. For instance, if you are going long in a pair like EUR/USD, the swap rate would be determined by the difference in interest rates set by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. If the borrowing cost of the euro is lower than that of the dollar, holding the EUR/USD pair overnight would typically result in a charge. Conversely, if the euro has a higher borrowing cost, you might see your balance credited. Calculating swaps involves a straightforward formula: Swap rate = (Contract size × Interest differential) ÷ 365 This calculation takes into account the size of your position and the interest rate difference, providing a daily cost or gain for holding the position. Understanding these costs is vital when it comes to managing trading expenses and strategy in the forex market. Key Elements Influencing Swap Rates Several factors play pivotal roles in determining overnight swap rates in the forex market. 1. Interest Rate Differentials: The primary driver of overnight rates, interest differentials stem from the varying monetary policies of central banks. For example, if the Bank of England has a higher lending rate than the Federal Reserve, a buy trade in GBP/USD could mean earning for maintaining the position overnight. 2. Market Conditions: Economic stability, political events, and financial market volatility can significantly impact overnight charges. During periods of high volatility or geopolitical uncertainty, rates may fluctuate more dramatically, reflecting the increased market risk. 3. Liquidity: The level of liquidity in the market often influences overnight costs. In less liquid markets and less commonly traded pairs, higher swaps might be charged due to the increased cost of facilitating these trades. 4. Broker Policies: Different forex brokers might have varying policies and calculations for their own swaps. These differences usually arise from the brokers' own pricing structures, risk management strategies, and competitive positioning in the market. As such, traders should be aware that overnight charges vary from broker to broker. Types of Forex Swaps There are primarily two types of swaps that traders may encounter, each serving distinct purposes and offering unique implications for trading strategies. 1. Interest Swaps: These involve the exchange of interest payments between parties. In forex, it typically manifests as the fee a trader pays or receives for holding a position overnight. They directly impact the cost of maintaining open positions in different pairs. 2. Currency Swaps (Cross-Currency Swaps): Also known as a currency rate swap, this involves exchanging principal and interest payments in two different currencies. While less common in everyday retail forex activities, they are important in managing currency exposure and risk, particularly in hedging strategies. Currency swaps are used to secure a predetermined exchange rate for a specified currency amount while incorporating a benchmarked or fixed interest rate. This type is usually used by corporations or brokers. Regarding fixed swap rates, they are less common in the forex market compared to the more prevalent floating swap rates. They’re often used in less volatile financial environments and typically find their application in long-term financial instruments or corporate finance rather than in the day-to-day trading of currencies. Strategies for Managing Swap Rates Management of swaps in forex involves several key strategies: - Short-term Trading: By closing positions before the end of the trading day, traders can avoid incurring overnight fees altogether. It’s a so-called day trading since positions are typically closed by the end of the day. - Hedging: Implementing hedging strategies may mitigate overnight fees. This involves opening opposite positions in correlated pairs, thus potentially balancing the amounts paid and received. - Economic Calendar Awareness: Staying informed about major economic announcements and central bank decisions often helps traders anticipate changes in borrowing costs. - Broker Selection: Choosing the right broker is critical. Selecting a broker with favourable rates might significantly reduce trading fees, especially for those holding long-term positions. Practical Implications for Traders Understanding and managing these charges has direct implications for traders' strategies and overall performance. Key considerations include: - Carry Trading: A carry trade strategy entails borrowing in a currency with a lower interest rate and investing in another with a higher yield. Traders take advantage of the interest differential but must be mindful of potential fees. - Rollover Costs: Traders holding positions overnight need to account for rollover costs, which can either erode or enhance returns, depending on the direction of the trade and the prevailing swap rates. - Currency Exposure Management: Swap rates affect the overall cost of maintaining a position. Traders need to balance the potential advantages of holding a position against the charges incurred. The Bottom Line Mastering swap rates is a cornerstone of trade management. A thorough understanding may empower traders to navigate these costs and potentially improve their strategies. By carefully considering factors like interest differentials and broker policies, traders may manage their trades and overall performance more effectively. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them?What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them? Financial derivatives are powerful instruments used by traders to speculate on market movements or manage risk. From futures to CFDs, derivatives offer potential opportunities across global markets. This article examines “What is a derivative in finance?”, delving into the main types of derivatives, how they function, and key considerations for traders. What Are Derivatives? A financial derivative is a contract with its value tied to the performance of an underlying asset. These assets can include stocks, commodities, currencies, ETFs, or market indices. Instead of buying the asset itself, traders and investors use derivatives to speculate on price movements or manage financial risk. Fundamentally, derivatives are contracts made between two parties. They allow one side to take advantage of changes in the asset's price, whether it rises or falls. For example, a futures contract locks in a price for buying or selling an asset on a specific date, while a contract for difference (CFD) helps traders speculate on the price of an asset without owning it. The flexibility of derivatives is what makes them valuable. They can hedge against potential losses, potentially amplify returns through leverage, or provide access to otherwise difficult-to-trade markets. Derivatives are traded either on regulated exchanges or through over-the-counter (OTC) markets, each with distinct benefits and risks. Leverage is a very common feature in derivative trading, enabling traders to control larger positions with less capital. However, it’s worth remembering that while this amplifies potential returns, it equally increases the risk of losses. These instruments play a pivotal role in modern finance, offering tools to navigate market volatility or target specific investment goals. However, their complexity means they require careful understanding and strategic use to potentially avoid unintended risks. Key Types of Financial Derivatives There are various types of derivatives, each tailored to different trading strategies and financial needs. Understanding the main type of derivative can help traders navigate their unique features and applications. Below are the most common examples of derivatives: Futures Contracts Futures involve a contract to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific future date. These contracts are standardised and traded on exchanges, making them transparent and widely accessible. Futures are commonly used in commodities markets—like oil or wheat—but also extend to indices and currencies. Traders commonly utilise this type of derivative to potentially manage risks associated with price fluctuations or to speculate on potential market movements. Forward Contracts A forward contract is a financial agreement in which two parties commit to buying or selling an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Unlike standardised futures contracts, forward contracts are customizable and traded privately, typically over-the-counter (OTC). These contracts are commonly used for hedging or speculating on price movements of assets such as commodities, currencies, or financial instruments. Swaps Swaps are customised contracts, typically traded over-the-counter (OTC). The most common types are interest rate swaps, where two parties agree to exchange streams of interest payments based on a specified notional amount over a set period, and currency swaps, which involve the exchange of principal and interest payments in different currencies. Swaps are primarily used by institutions to manage long-term exposure to interest rates or currency risks. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) CFDs allow traders to speculate on price changes of an underlying asset. They are flexible, covering a wide range of markets such as shares, commodities, and indices. CFDs are particularly attractive as they allow traders to speculate on rising and falling prices of an asset without owning it. Moreover, CFDs provide potential opportunities for short-term trading, which may be unavailable with other financial instruments. Trading Derivatives: Mechanisms and Strategies Trading derivatives revolves around two primary methods: exchange-traded and over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Each offers potential opportunities for traders, depending on their goals and risk tolerance. Exchange-Traded Derivatives These derivatives, like futures, are standardised and traded on regulated exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Standardisation ensures transparency, making it potentially easier for traders to open buy or sell positions. For example, a trader might use futures contracts to hedge against potential price movements in commodities or indices. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives OTC derivatives, including swaps and forwards and contracts for difference, are negotiated directly between two parties. These contracts are highly customisable but may carry more counterparty risk, as they aren't cleared through a central exchange. Institutions often use OTC derivatives for tailored solutions, such as managing interest rate fluctuations. Strategies for Trading Derivatives Traders typically employ derivatives for speculation or hedging. Speculation involves taking positions based on anticipated market movements, such as buying a CFD if prices are expected to rise. Hedging, on the other hand, can potentially mitigate losses in an existing portfolio by offsetting potential risks, like using currency swaps to protect against foreign exchange volatility. Risk management plays a crucial role when trading derivatives. Understanding the underlying asset, monitoring market conditions, and using appropriate position sizes are vital to navigating their complexity. CFD Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are among the most accessible derivative products for retail traders. They allow for speculation on price movements across a wide range of markets, including stocks, commodities, currencies, and indices, without owning the underlying asset. This flexibility makes CFDs an appealing option for individuals looking to diversify their strategies and explore global markets. How CFDs Work CFDs represent an agreement between the trader and the broker to exchange the difference in an asset's price between the opening and closing of a trade. If the price moves in the trader’s favour, the broker pays the difference; if it moves against them, the trader covers the loss. This structure is straightforward, allowing retail traders to trade in both rising and falling markets. Why Retail Traders Use CFDs Retail traders often gravitate towards CFDs due to their accessibility and unique features. CFDs allow leverage trading. By depositing a smaller margin, traders can gain exposure to much larger positions, potentially amplifying returns. However, you should remember that this comes with heightened risk, as losses are also magnified. Markets and Opportunities CFDs offer exposure to an extensive range of markets, including stocks, forex pairs, commodities, and popular indices like the S&P 500. Retail traders particularly appreciate the ability to trade these markets with minimal upfront capital, as well as the availability of 24/5 trading for many instruments. CFDs also enable traders to access international markets they might otherwise find difficult to trade, such as Asian or European indices. Traders can explore a variety of CFDs with FXOpen. Considerations for CFD Trading While CFDs offer potential opportunities, traders must approach them cautiously. Leverage and high market volatility can lead to significant losses. Effective risk management in derivatives, meaning using stop-loss orders or limiting position sizes, can help traders potentially navigate these risks. Additionally, costs like spreads, commissions, and overnight fees can add up, so understanding the total cost structure is crucial. Key Considerations When Trading Derivatives Trading derivatives requires careful analysis and a clear understanding of the associated risks and potential opportunities. Understanding the Underlying Asset The value of a derivative depends entirely on its underlying asset, whether it’s a stock, commodity, currency, or index. Analysing the asset’s price behaviour, market trends, and potential volatility is crucial to identifying potential opportunities and risks. Choosing the Right Derivative Product Different derivatives serve different purposes. Futures might suit traders looking for exposure to commodities or indices, while CFDs provide accessible and potential opportunities for those seeking short-term price movements. Matching the derivative to your strategy is vital. Managing Risk Effectively Risk management plays a significant role in trading derivatives. Leverage can amplify both returns and losses, so traders often set clear limits on position sizes and overall exposure. Stop-loss orders and diversification are common ways to potentially reduce the impact of adverse market moves. Understanding Costs Trading derivatives involves costs like spreads, commissions, and potential overnight financing fees. These can eat into potential returns, especially for high-frequency or leveraged trades. A clear understanding of these expenses may help traders evaluate the effectiveness of their strategies. Monitoring Market Conditions Derivatives are sensitive to their underlying market changes, from geopolitical events to macroeconomic data. In stock derivatives, this might be company earning reports or sudden shifts in management. Staying informed helps traders adapt to shifting conditions and avoid being caught off guard by sudden price swings. The Bottom Line Financial derivatives are versatile tools for trading and hedging, offering potential opportunities to access global markets and diversify strategies. While their complexity demands a solid understanding, they can unlock significant potential for informed traders. Ready to explore derivatives trading? Open an FXOpen account today to trade CFDs on more than 700 assets with competitive costs, fast execution, and advanced trading tools. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Derivative? The derivatives definition refers to a financial contract whose value is based on the performance of an underlying asset, such as stocks, commodities, currencies, or indices. Derivatives are financial instruments used to hedge risk, speculate on price movements, or access specific markets. Examples include futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). What Are the 4 Main Derivatives? The primary categories of derivatives are futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). Futures are commonly traded on exchanges, while forwards, swaps and CFDs are usually traded over-the-counter (OTC). Each serves different purposes, from risk management to speculative trading. What Is the Derivatives Market? The derivatives market is where financial derivatives are bought and sold. It includes regulated exchanges, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and OTC markets where customised contracts are negotiated directly between parties. This market supports hedging, speculation, and risk transfer across global financial systems. What Is the Difference Between Derivatives and Equities? Equities signify ownership in a company, typically in the form of stock shares. Derivatives, on the other hand, are contracts that derive their value from the performance of an underlying asset, which can include equities. Unlike equities, derivatives do not confer ownership. Is an ETF a Derivative? No, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is not a derivative. It is a fund that tracks a basket of assets, such as stocks or bonds, and trades like a stock. However, ETFs can use derivatives, such as futures, to achieve their investment objectives. Is the S&P 500 a Derivative? No, the S&P 500 is not a derivative. It is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large companies listed in the US. Derivatives, like futures, can be created based on the S&P 500’s performance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYMEX:CLJ2025Education
by FXOpen
1
ZARJPY: Massive Head and Shoulders with Bearish DivergenceIn addition to the Bearish 5-0 I pointed out before on a previous chart, the ZARJPY has also formed a Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders that is visible on timeframes even as high as the monthly with Bearish Divergence on the MACD and RSI. If The Carry Trade truly is to be dissolved, the ZARJPY should be among the currency pairs that are most severely affected, as it has the highest interest rate differential and therefore generates the highest yield for the time being.
Short
by RizeSenpai
Derivatives Trading: A Comprehensive GuideI. Introduction Derivatives trading is a vital aspect of modern finance that encompasses various financial instruments, including futures, options, swaps, and forward contracts. Derivatives are financial instruments whose values are derived from underlying assets such as commodities, equities, bonds, interest rates, or currencies. They provide a robust mechanism for hedging risk, speculating on future price movements, and gaining access to otherwise inaccessible markets or asset classes. II. The Concept of Derivatives A derivative is a financial contract between two or more parties based on an underlying asset. The derivative's price is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset's price. They were initially created to allow businesses to hedge against price variations in commodities, but they have since expanded to include a vast array of financial instruments. There are four primary types of derivatives: 1. Futures Contracts: These are standardized contracts to buy or sell a particular asset at a predetermined price at a specific future date. Futures contracts are highly liquid, as they are traded on an exchange, and they cover a wide range of underlying assets, from commodities to financial instruments. The price of futures contracts incorporates the cost of carrying the underlying asset, which includes storage costs, financing costs, and convenience yields. 2. Options Contracts: These grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time frame. The price of an option (known as its premium) depends on several factors including the price of the underlying asset, the strike price, the time until expiration, the volatility of the underlying asset, and the risk-free interest rate. 3. Swap Contracts: These involve the exchange of one set of cash flows for another. For example, in an interest rate swap, parties might swap fixed interest rate payments for floating interest rate payments. The pricing of swaps involves determining the present value of the cash flows being exchanged. 4. Forward Contracts: These are non-standardized contracts between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified future time at a price agreed upon today. Forward contracts, like futures, involve an agreement to trade an asset in the future, but they are not standardized or traded on exchanges. The pricing of forward contracts is similar to that of futures and involves consideration of the cost of carrying the underlying asset. III. Trading Derivatives Trading in derivatives can occur either on an exchange or over-the-counter (OTC). Exchange-traded derivatives are standardized, regulated, and backed by a clearinghouse that mitigates counterparty risk. In contrast, OTC derivatives are privately negotiated, less regulated, and come with higher counterparty risk. IV. Hedging Risk One of the key functions of derivatives is to provide a hedge against price risk. By locking in a future price for an underlying asset, companies can protect themselves against adverse price movements that might affect their operational profitability. For instance, an airline company might use fuel futures to hedge against potential increases in oil prices, thereby securing their operating margins. V. Speculation and Arbitrage While hedging is a risk management strategy, many traders use derivatives for speculation, aiming to profit from future price changes in the underlying asset. Traders who anticipate a price increase in the underlying asset might buy futures or call options, while those who expect a price decrease might sell futures or buy put options. Arbitrageurs exploit price differences of the same asset in different markets or different pricing of two related assets, creating risk-free profit opportunities. Derivatives, with their leverage characteristic, can enhance these arbitrage opportunities. VI. Pricing of Derivatives The pricing of derivatives is complex and relies onvarious models. Two of the most popular models are the Black-Scholes model and the Binomial options pricing model. The Black-Scholes model , widely used for pricing options, takes into account the current price of the underlying asset, the option's strike price, the time until expiration, the risk-free interest rate, and the expected volatility of the underlying asset. It assumes that markets are efficient, and there are no transaction costs or taxes. However, the Black-Scholes model is less effective in handling early exercise of American options and dividends. The Binomial options pricing model is an alternative to the Black-Scholes model, especially useful for American options, which can be exercised before the expiration date. The model works by creating a binomial tree for possible price paths and assigning probabilities for each path. It then calculates the payoffs for each path and uses discounted backpropagation to derive the option price. The pricing of futures and forwards typically involves determining the cost of carrying the underlying asset to the contract's expiration date. This includes factors like storage costs for commodities, dividends for stocks, and interest costs for financial futures. The pricing of swaps depends on the present value of the expected future cash flows of the underlying assets. For interest rate swaps, the swap rate would be set so that the present value of fixed-rate payments equals the present value of expected floating-rate payments. VII. Counterparty Risk Derivatives trading involves counterparty risk - the risk that one party in the contract will default on their obligations. This risk is typically higher in OTC markets where private contracts are made without a central clearinghouse. To manage this risk, participants may use various methods such as collateral agreements, netting arrangements, and credit default swaps. VIII. Regulatory Considerations Regulation plays a crucial role in derivatives markets. Following the financial crisis of 2008, which was partly blamed on the unregulated OTC derivatives market, regulatory bodies worldwide tightened the rules governing derivatives trading. Regulations now require increased transparency, better risk management practices, and a greater use of centralized clearing to reduce systemic risk. Regulations like the Dodd-Frank Act in the US and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) in the EU are examples of regulatory efforts to enhance market stability, improve transparency and protect market participants. IX. The Role of Clearing Houses Clearinghouses play a vital role in derivatives trading. They act as the middleman for all exchange-traded and some OTC derivative trades. They ensure the smooth execution of trades, mitigate counterparty risk by guaranteeing the obligations of both parties in a trade, and enhance market transparency by reporting trading details. X. Recent Trends and Future Outlook In recent years, the use of derivatives in risk management and speculative trading has increased significantly. The growth of electronic trading platforms has democratized access to derivatives markets, and complex products have been designed to address specific risk management needs. Looking forward, the derivatives market is likely to be shaped by several trends. First, regulatory changes will continue to evolve, aimed at enhancing transparency, reducing systemic risk, and preventing market abuse. Second, technological advancements, particularly in AI and blockchain, have the potential to revolutionize how derivatives are traded and settled. Lastly, the growing recognition of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors is likely to lead to the development of new derivative products linked to ESG performance indicators. XI. Conclusion Derivatives trading plays a significant role in modern finance, providing mechanisms for risk management, speculation, and arbitrage. While it carries risks, such as counterparty default and market abuse, its benefits in terms of enhancing market efficiency, price discovery, and risk distribution are significant. As the financial markets continueto evolve, the importance and complexity of derivatives trading are likely to increase, driven by advances in technology, regulatory changes, and the changing needs of market participants. As such, a comprehensive understanding of derivatives and their trading mechanisms will continue to be a vital aspect of financial knowledge.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BiggWigg
1
Night MovesIs it wise for retail traders to hold trade positions open overnight or over the weekend if the profit target has not been met by the end of the trading day? Even if you have a stop loss in place, unless you are a position/swing trader, intra-day traders and scalpers should not get into the habit of holding any positions open overnight during the trading week or over the weekend (regular or long). If your position has not hit your take profit target by the end of the trading day and you want to keep the position open until it does, you need to have decisive analysis indicating why that take profit target is likely to be hit when the market reopens after closing. Whenever the market closes and resumes on the next day and especially when it closes on a Friday and reopens after the weekend, market flow is disrupted and unless you have a wide stop loss in place, you may well end up with a loss because your previous analysis for that set up/trade idea may no longer be valid for the new market flow. An open position held overnight can easily get stopped out if on the next trading day there is a geopolitical event that causes a gap on open, printing a big move. Geopolitical events unfortunately are not scheduled on any economic or news calendar in advance and indeed sometimes, bad news is deliberately released by governments over the weekend and can blindside novice traders with open positions. Another way that you might have your SL tripped is if an institutional algo activates a huge sell order, for example, without clear rhyme or reason on market open or soon after, creating a cascade of sells and printing a flash crash before the necessary correction. Some retail traders will even hold positions open overnight without a stop loss with the intention of “tracking” the move using dynamic support and resistance and will consequently wait to see how those MAs move on the following trading day. This can play havoc with your psychology as you will be processing bias in favour of your open position whilst trying to analyse the market as objectively as possible. Also bear in mind that you may see eye watering swap charges incurred for holding trades overnight especially with larger lot sizes and this needs to be factored into your risk to reward for the trade. At the time of writing this post, it is triple witching Friday. Any temptation to open and hold a trade just before market close today will run into another problem related to volume. This coming Monday is a U.S. federal holiday when the NYSE, Nasdaq and bond markets will be closed. Due to the thinner volume on Monday as a result, any open positions from today that get sucked into drawdown on this holiday will be that much more difficult to roll out of successfully during the day. The only exception to that might occur if the lack of volume creates an exaggerated move with a price spike due to heightened volatility. However, you’d need have your eyes on the chart at the time, have a quick trigger finger to exit and close out the trade and of course, the move has to be in your favour in terms of the direction for the exit in the first place. Always close out a position before the end of the trading day and come back to the market in the new trading day with peace of mind and a relaxed attitude. An open position in drawdown on a new trading day will only create stress and interfere with your focus not just on dealing with that open position but also with regard to entering any other set up opportunities. Remember, whenever you go to market, please be careful out there.
Education
by BluetonaFX
4
WHY YOU Don't always Receive INTEREST when you are short... Q. I thought that when you go short (sell) that we earn interest (swap fees) per day. But to my surprise I was actually charged interest on my open trade with AUD/NZD. Was I not meant to earn interest?” A. Unfortunately, it depends… With each market you trade, you’ll need to look at the symbol information for each trade you take. This also depends on the deal the broker has with each market. For example, when you SELL AUD/NZD you're essentially buying NZD/AUD (as they are currency pairs). So whether you go long or short, you don't earn interest with short (sell) currencies... But make sure, you always look at Symbol information and see what swaps are positive when you are short. With the AUD/NZD you can see you pay -3.35% per year. That means each day you hold, you’ll have to pay 0.009% per day. Then with some commodities and indices you’ll either earn interest or you’ll have to pay interest when you short (sell). For example, with gold you’ll receive an interest of 1.23% per year. Whereas with cotton you’ll pay 5.4% per year. With the UK 100 FTSE, you’ll pay an annual interest of -0.24%. And with the Dow Jones you’ll receive 0.74% per year. Then with local and international stocks, you’ll receive a certain % of interest (swap fees) per year. So make sure you always check to see what each swap (daily interest fee) entails. This obviously depends on the Market Maker you're using and if you're using Trading View make sure you see the information from your broker what the interest swaps (fees) are when you go long or short.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
SPX - You Really Think $6 Trillion Can Save Us?Three simple reasons why markets are still broken and why I lean towards the much higher probability of another move down despite FED stimulus: 1) Garbage prospects for equity earnings - earnings were terrible a long time before COVID-19 hit and this is way beyond a virus now: -Earnings were terrible way before COVID-19 -Q4 2019 was the worst fall in EPS. growth since the 2008 Financial Crisis -Unless governments miraculously open up the entire economy overnight, we now have the Q1 2020 earnings season coming up - hmmm... 2) $6 trillion of FED stimulus is highly disproportionate to the approx $70 trillion of value lost/being eroded: -We'll start with more than $20 trillion of value that has been destroyed in global stocks -Adding to it losses in all other assets (real-estate, credit, fixed income, etc.) this number is at least double equity losses: so another $40 trillion -Adding to this: at least a $10 trillion global dollar shortage crisis (dollar shortage, forward dollars swaps and various other dollar liabilities) - Total value destruction = 20T equities + 40T all other asset classes + 10T dollar shortage problems = approximately 70T of totally capital markets value destruction. - You really think $6 trillion of FED stimulus and highly indebted governments can fix this tremendous mess? 3) The McClellan Oscillator has moved sharply from the most oversold levels to the most overbought levels
AMEX:SPYShort
by arigolden
11
S&P 500 - A Bearish Outlook Heading Into 2020Here is my thought process behind why I have a bearish outlook heading into 2020 - please note that this is the second time that I have ever published analysis and this is just me synthesizing a bunch of ideas. I'm going to start off with the lighter ideas before moving on to the heavier ideas... 1) We are in the late stage of the economic cycle... this is the longest expansion of the US economy since records began. Common sense dictates that we will enter a recession soon. 2) Keeping this in mind, let's look at the state of politics around the world. We have protests and riots in HK (recently a protestor was shot for the first time), we have Brexit which has both Germany and the UK on the brink of recession. The US and China trade war has not improved at all and is constantly seeing tit-for-tats. Finally, literally the other day the US was given the go-ahead by the WTO for $7.5 billion in tariffs on the EU in response to their 15-year long row over the subsidizing of the rival aircraft companies Boeing and Airbus. 3) In recent surveys, over half of economists in the US believe that a recession will hit the US in 2020. The market has also seen the yield curve invert, providing a stark warning (although this usually takes at least 12 months to materialize, this is a bad indicator). 4) There is a ridiculous bearish RSI divergence on the charts, with Fibonacci Time Zones pointing towards significant price action at the start or end of 2020. I believe this is because this cycle was pumped and overrated, running on the crack cocaine of financial markets: Quantitative Easing. 5) Recessions usually occur when there is a sharp fall in liquidity in the cash markets (referring to bank deposits and not trade execution liquidity). In recent times we have seen a bipartisan deal passed through in the US which mandated the US Treasury to "aggressively build up" cash reserves. After lowering the debt ceiling the Treasury plans on borrowing an additional $433 billion during this quarter (about $275 billion more than it had previously estimated) which is roughly ten times (1,000%) more than what the Treasury borrowed last quarter ($40 billion). This would cause global dollar liquidity to dry up fast (foreign nations and banks use excess deposits and reserves to purchase these meaning dollars flow out of the economy into the Treasury). 6) Continuing on from the last point, not only do we have dollar liquidity vanishing in the global economy but we have negative dollar swap spread (those lending USD via currency swaps want higher premiums). This is only getting deeper and deeper. Interestingly, the Bank of International Settlements found that cross-currency swap spreads act as a more accurate measure of struggle in the financial markets than the VIX. This shortage of dollars (highlighted by the premium being charged to lend dollars in swaps) comes at a time when the global economy is already weakening thus is making financial markets more fragile (turning to IMF reports on muted inflation and weaker final demand for goods and services) also referring to previous points Seeing and analyzing all these factors, the future doesn't look too bright. Disappointing economic data continues to plague our minds. As the Fed continues to cut interest rates they are only giving debt-laden companies one more sigh of relief which will only knock the inevitable crash further down the road when neither corporations nor the government can cope with it (they're throwing away all their ammunition and shooting themselves before the battle has even started). The drop to come will be harder and more brutal than 2008 because asset prices are currently inflated at incomprehensible levels due to quantitative easing as well as the Fed having little headroom to cut rates further. You could only imagine what is to come in countries with much less head-room for monetary policy than the US... What's next? Helicopter money!? Disclosure: I hold shares in: XSPS IGLT O IBTM
TVC:SPXShort
by malhardasgupta85
AUD/NZD's Multi-Year Cycle in Full Swing [Time For the Bulls]Another super awesome 'trade of the ages' on this SVP {Super Valuable Pair}! Another Super Valuable Pair similar to this one with identical price behavior is the FX:AUDCAD . Remember the NZD/CAD trades opposite to this one due to the negative correlation. I've been waiting forever for this Inverse Head & Shoulders to complete and lift-off and the party has now truly begun. Target's #1 and #2 have already been hit and the neckline hasn't even broke yet. My 3rd Target is the neckline itself then we really look forward to pyramiding those Buy positions aggressively. This sexy beast is just getting started just like almost all the other pairs with huge Daily and Weekly Head & Shoulder's formations like the Yen pairs just to name a few because they are literally popping up everywhere. I think Year 2016-2017 will be remembered as the year of the Head & Shoulders :) The AUD/NZD and GBP/NZD have a high level of positive correlation with each other so I really expect both pairs to push tremendously higher. The only upcoming event that may potentially hurt any British Pound momentum is the "Brexit" decision which is on June 23rd, 2016 so we'll see but until then I'm bullish FX:AUDCAD , FX:AUDNZD and FX:GBPNZD . However, I'm bearish FX:NZDCAD , FX:EURNZD and FX:NZDJPY which I will talk more about at a later time. Good luck traders, and may all your trades be profitable!
Long
by FractalEyeZ
Is AUD/CAD in a Long-term Bullish Channel?Is that a rhetorical question? ;) Even if price retraces to the downside in the near term, I am a Bull over the long-term plus it looks like a bullish Inverse H&S formation which are extremely powerful and reliable even before breaking the neckline as you can clearly see the increasing momentum. If you trade the Kiwi/CAD then for the long-term look for the exact opposite . AUD/CAD is what I like to call an SVP {a Super Valuable Pair} because each pip is worth a lot not to mention the Overnight Swap Rates are positive for Long positions so make sure to Buy dips! I like to classify my favorite pairs as either an HVP {High Value Pair}, an EVP {Extremely Valuable Pair} or an SVP {Super Valuable Pair} based on a variety of factors and situations which can and do change due to the dynamic nature of the current market conditions. Upside targets will be added in and updated when I get some more free time, maybe this weekend.
Long
by FractalEyeZ
Bitcoin regulation, huge volatility ahead?A couple of things to watch out for at the moment: OVERSTOCK CEO PATRICK BYRNE PROMISES “INTERESTING ANNOUNCEMENTS” AT LAS VEGAS BITCOIN CONFERENCE insidebitcoins.com NEW YORK (InsideBitcoins) — Promising some “interesting announcements” regarding Bitcoin on Twitter (see below), Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, will deliver the final keynote for the Inside Bitcoins Conference and Expo in Las Vegas at the Flamingo Hotel on October 5-7, 2014. CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee to Meet www.cftc.gov www.cftc.gov "The meeting will focus on issues related to clearing Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) and the digital currency bitcoin. The meeting will consist of two panels. The first panel will discuss whether a clearing mandate is appropriate for NDFs, with a particular focus on how such a mandate would impact foreign exchange contracts. The second panel will discuss CFTC’s jurisdiction with respect to derivatives contracts that reference the digital currency bitcoin." New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) superintendent Benjamin Lawsky is to deliver a keynote speech at Money20/20: www.coindesk.com "New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) superintendent Benjamin Lawsky is to deliver a keynote speech at Money20/20, which bills itself as the world’s largest event for payments and financial services innovation. " European Commissioner-Designate to Discuss Bitcoin at EU Hearing www.coindesk.com --------- Depending on the outcome of these meetups, keynotes & events ahead, it is almost certainly one that will have huge effect on the price in the coming months. The last time it happened was on October 2013 which resulted in the rally towards $1000. ETF: www.bloomberg.com www.sec.gov
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LastBattle
1