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Swissknife

Oil shift to downtrend? Options and AI whispersWe can observe at the beginning of this week major shift in sentiment of the traders with Oil in their portfolio. As previous week still we saw money put on 130$, this week the last major level as Call Wall is at 100$. I would even include scenario that around that level we can go slightly higher due to Virgin VPOCs at 102 and 104.5 - still though it should be short-term run and only possible if wet closer to 100$ first. So far we can observe downtrend on Oil. If 92.2$ will be broken, downtrend can continue. The next major Options and Darkpool markets Support lays at 80$. Before that there is no other level (so far) that can stop this move.
NYMEX:CL1!
by skyline-trader
BTC from Options perspective - current situationI do not intend to predict the future or make the hypothesis "now only to the moon" so let me briefly present the facts based on information obtained from the Machine Learning (AI) algorithm analyzing the options: - we have exceeded the Gamma Flip, which will result in reduced volatility per Bitcoin - the nearest option support is at the level of 40k, while the much more solid capital is located at the level of 35k - the closest resistance is at 50k, but much stronger capital located at 60k - we only have one Virgin VPOC below the current price (around 35k - coincidence?) and a few Virgin VPOCs located every few thousand on average above the current price level I hope the conclusions come by themselves. I update the option data every day and are available for you (insightful and inquisitive ones will surely find it on my profile).
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Where is BTC going?Let's take a look at Bitcoin from a broader perspective. Today we retested the Virgin VPOC from January 5th. The bearish sentiment has been overcome and we have a fully confirmed change to Bullish (green background of the sentiment indicator + blue bars - I explained the indicator in one of the separate entries that I add to Related Ideas). After breaking 46105, we will have an open road to retest the next Virgin VPOC at 48035 on December 31st. Both the psychological barrier and the key level from the perspective of Option Traders is the 50k level (at the time of writing the analysis). This is a strong resistance, and a tough/fierce battle between Bulls and Bears can take place there. In general, BTC presents itself in the long term Bullish from the perspective of Virgin VPOCs which the market will seek to retest. However, two things worry me: 50k level as resistance and psychological barrier two Virgin VPOCs that are located below the current price (at the time of writing the analysis) at 36560 and 36065 - although they are quite "young" Virgin VPOC and it is worth having them at the back of your head, but not necessarily fixing on them It will be useful to use on an ongoing basis when assessing the BTC market with VSA Scanner (described in Related Ideas) which will show where we have the current Demand and Supply in real time on BTC. Analyzes of Intraday BTC and other instruments are also available to those who know where look for them ;) Good luck on the markets - especially in these uncertain times!
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Whispers from Options - BTCWe observe weakness/Bears dominating BTC market recently. Options Sentiment Indicator is giving mixed signals (overall we see bullish sentiment from Options traders but more volume is within PUT options still). 4 Virgin VPOCs are awaiting retest and are located above current price in comparison to 1 VPOC below current price - Bullish pressure area of 46000 is major/key level, worth observing from Options OrderBook of contracts expiring in 26 days (28th January 2022) - there are no strong resistance levels (!!) - Bullish pressure. However major support levels (a lot of CALL orders awaiting) are relatively low - 35,36 k on H4 we see multiple Demand Signals coming from VSA Scanner software near 46 000 level
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Bitcoin situation based on Options flowBitcoin is trading recently in clearly visible Trading Range, keeping investors nervous and asking question - is it Distribution or Accumulation? From Daily Timeframe we see in general Positive/Bullish sentiment from Options Traders, but it's not fully confirmed by the market yet. Going into more detailed M30, we see recent signals of incoming demand to the market identified by VSA Scanner in form of Selling Climax and Climactic Shakeout. Also Volume Area (blue rectangle on the chart identified also by Scanner) is retested from the top (top edge on 45945) what adds fuel for Bulls. From Daily Chart we could observe also equal ratio of Put and Call options what happened several times on level 46105. This is currently our major support which needs to be kept if Bullish tendence should continue be present on BTC. From Related Idea about BTC, you can remember that level 50000 is strong Put Wall. Billions of dollars are loaded into Options with Strike Price above 50k. Around area of 50k also we have present Supply Zone (red rectangle), therefore we can expect Bullish run up to that level, then correction most likely to happen. And here will come decisive moment for both camps - Bulls and Bears. We also have present Virgin VPOC on 54890 from beginning of December, what is another confluence factor for Long. And what only worries me, is Virgin VPOC from 30th September on 43100, which is the level below the current price (for the moment of writing analysis). Let's make some popcorn and see what happens next ;) Here comes handly VSA Scanner script, which will at earliest possibility warn us before potential Supply signals and Bears entering the market.
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market. This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point. We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market). We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
2
GBP/USD with incoming Demand from VSABriefly and to the point - VSA Scanner shows the incoming demand on the H1 chart on the Cable (GBP/USD) in the form of the protected zone and the occurrence of two Shakeout signals. The zone was broken on top where Effort to Rise was visible. Additionally, the broken zone from above was tested by the appearance of No Supply. We are in the volume zone on the D1 chart. A proposal with a target around 1.3445, where we have another not yet tested volume zone on H1. Ratio Risk / Reward 3.5
CME_MINI:M6B1!Long
by skyline-trader
Options flow are whispering on BTCThe Options Market can inform well in advance about movements that are yet to happen in futures contracts. Looking at the Options with an Exercise Date (expiry) in 22 days at the time of writing the analysis, the conclusions are quite loud and clear: 50,000 - Put Wall level, that is support with 2 times more capital than the other levels 60,000 - Call Wall level -> resistance 65,000 and 70,000 - successive resistance levels We also see some Virgin VPOC points from the past, which only adds strength and confidence to the Bitcoin bullish prediction. All data and levels are based on BTC quotes from CME. I am puzzled by a very large capital located at the level of 50k $ - someone really cares to defend this level at all costs. There is still time for it, so it's worth watching how the situation develops;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
2
Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session. From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments: DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158. S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities. Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2 Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
DAX on beginning of new week - based on Options Flow (Gamma)Going to the right, DAX tests investors' nerves and endurance. What can the beginning of a new week bring to us? Overall, we are high in the context (which does not in any way negate further increases for the sake of clarity!). Below the current price level, we have several Virgin VPOC levels, which even extend to the region of 15,200. But the only thing is that EVERY time the index will return there. Not necessarily now;) In the context of Intraday trading, breaking the Gamma +0.25 level determined automatically based on the Options market - gives the opportunity to play a Long with a target of up to Gamma +0.5. We play it carefully because of Dax's trailblazing in such high places. The exit to Gamma +0.5, because as you already know from previous analyzes, this is a very strong Intraday resistance level. Similar to playing Short as a mirror image of the described move - after Gamma -0.25 goes down, there is an opportunity for Short. Target is Gamma -0.5 (again - strong Intraday support level), but this time we are watching whether there will be a price reaction and a rebound - another opportunity for Long as the Gamma -0.5 level is in the volume zone determined automatically by VSA Scanner. According to the Gamma strategy - a bounce from Gamma -0.5 most often ends statistically at the Pivot level. Another trading opportunity is a price breakdown at the level determined automatically - Extreme Low of Day (determined from the Options and Volatility market) with the target at the extreme Gamma -1. Here, we also expect a price reaction and a position reversal in Long, where the presence of the volume zone (determined by the VSA Scanner) is an additional strengthening of the signal strength. The Options Market helps forecast movements that are yet to come in derivatives (including Futures Contracts). Therefore, it is a powerful weapon in the Trader's arsenal and is available to everyone;)
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
Bullish runs on GoldIt is unusual in the morning that such analyzes happen to me, like the one on gold today. It is a laborious climb up the hill, but with frequent pauses in the form of lateral movements. However, from an Intraday perspective, we only see Bull Bargains on the chart. Starting with the closest price opportunities (at the time of writing the analysis) - the Gamma -0.5 level being on the edge of the Volume Zone determined by the VSA Scanner, which according to statistics on defense / reaction gives a rebound to the Daily Pivot Point. If the price goes lower (which does not negate the scenario with a rebound on Gamma -0.5, because the price may first implement the scenario of a rebound from Gamma -0.5 and then drop more) - at the levels 1793-1794.7 we have a convergence zone determined by the Extreme Low of Day (determined from option movement by Gamma) and yesterday's Low of Day - and thus another opportunity to Long. Last but not least, we also notice a demand zone that is below the extreme Gamma -1 (which would mean a market anomaly) - but this is another opportunity for Long. As for levels above the current price on gold (at the time of writing the analysis), the opportunity to Buy gold will be a breakthrough of Gamma 0.25 (or earlier Demand indications from the VSA Scanner). Happy Trade!
COMEX:GC1!
by skyline-trader
S&P500 full of opportunities today - based on Options flowS&P500 still climbs up, making small correction downside during second part of yesterday session and then trades in range. The nearest opportunity for Longs would be after breaking above yesterday High and Gamma 0.5 (set as level automatically by script from Options flow) as this area is working currently as strong Resistance. Target placed at 4437 so calculated Extreme High of the Day - which is also inside Supply Zone. Once again expected price reaction there (marked on chart). Important place to watch is also 4436.25 where we have located Options Gamma -0.5. Slightly below we also have Previous Day Low and Extreme Low of Day levels. Price should react from this area (marked on chart) which would lead to opportunity for Bulls. Target due to Price Reaction of Gamma -0.5 would be Pivot of the day, as this level accordingly to Trading Strategy with Gammas is statistically leading to such targets from this particular place. If S&P500 would drop as low as 4333, where is located extreme Gamma -1 - this is worth to observe as well as breaking below it would mean anomaly (<10 sessions per year) and stong Bearish Sentence, in direction of retesting Virgin VPOC marked on chart at 4310.25. Good Luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by skyline-trader
Options flow as early call forecast in Intraday TradingOptions flow gives big edge on market, very often predicting moves before they happen on Futures instruments. By applying custom indicators reading Options flow data, it is possible to receive levels that can play important and leading role in Intraday Trading. When we add to this basic understanding of market mechanics, then we can have significant edge in trading. Still this is not Holy Grail, but though accurate strategy. All potential moves are explained and described on charts. Enjoy!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
1
Options flow gives ideas for Intraday Trading - daily projectionOptions flow gives big edge on market, very often predicting moves before they happen on Futures instruments. By applying custom indicators reading Options flow data, it is possible to receive levels that can play important and leading role in Intraday Trading. When we add to this basic understanding of market mechanics, then we can have significant edge in trading. Still this is not Holy Grail, but though accurate strategy. All potential moves are explained and described on charts. Enjoy!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by skyline-trader