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Tariffs

UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day. Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021. The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June. US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive. The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May. The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs. Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June.
by OANDA
1
Pound under pressure ahead of US, UK inflation reportsThe British pound has edged up higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3453, up 0.21% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.3416, its lowest level since June 23. All eyes will be on the UK inflation report for June, which will be released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% y/y, as is core CPI at 3.5%. Monthly, both the headline rates are expected to stay steady at 0.2%. Has the BoE's battle to lower inflation stalled? The BoE was looking good in March, when inflation eased to 2.6%, but CPI has rebounded to 3.4%, well above the BoE's inflation target of 2%. Services data has been especially sticky, although it dropped to 4.7% in May, down from 5.4% a month earlier. At 3.4%, inflation is stuck at its highest level since February 2024 and that will complicate plans at the BoE to renew interest rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak UK economy. The central bank has lowered rates twice this year and would like to continue trimming the current cash rate of 4.25%. The Bank meets next on Aug. 7 and Wednesday's inflation data could be a significant factor in the rate decision. In the US, if June inflation data rises as is expected, fingers will quickly point to President Trump's tariffs as finally having an impact. Recent inflation reports have not shown a significant spike higher due to the tariffs, which were first imposed in April. However, the tariffs may have needed time to filter throughout the economy and could be felt for the first time in the June inflation reading. The Fed meets next on July 30, with the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a hold, according to CME's FedWatch. For September, the odds of a rate cut stand at 59%. Today's inflation report could cause a shift in these numbers. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.3454 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3484 1.3396 and 1.3366 are the next support levels
by OANDA
What Happens the Day Jerome Powell Is Fired or Quits?A sudden exit by Fed Chair Jerome Powell would create both a political and monetary shock. While the Chair is technically protected from arbitrary removal. Recent reports confirm that President Trump and his allies are scrutinising the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project—potentially laying the groundwork for a “for cause” dismissal. A surprise departure would undermine confidence in the Fed’s independence. The U.S. dollar could fall sharply across major pairs. USD/JPY could fall toward ¥145, with safe-haven demand favouring the yen. However, the reaction may be less severe than in pairs like Swiss franc which we have noted in the past is the potentially preferred safe haven. A panic selloff could extend to 142.20—a prior consolidation floor. GBP/USD could surge as traders anticipate a more dovish Fed stance under the new Trump-stooge Fed Chair. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is maybe already oversold and potentially poised for a potential rebound anyway—Powell’s resignation or firing could potentially exacerbate this. The first level to watch being a return to 1.3700, assuming the likely expectation of Fed rate cuts rise.
by BlackBull_Markets
Australian dollar eyes China GDPThe Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, down 0.32% on the day. The Aussie took advantage of US dollar weakness last week as it touched a high of 0.6593, its highest level since November 2024. China's economy is expected to have grown by 5.1% in the second quarter, after back-to-back quarters of gains of 5.4%. The government's annual growth target is around 5.0%, and policymakers won't complain if this target is exceeded for a third consecutive quarter. China's exports were up 5.8% y/y in June, above the consensus of 5.0% and well above the May gain of 4.8%. The jump in exports was driven by a trade truce with the US that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. Still, the economic picture is uncertain as the tariff truce ends in August. China will also release industrial production and retail sales for June, with the markets forecasting weaker numbers. Industrial production, which has been decelerating in recent months, is expected to ease to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are expected to fall to 5.6%, down from 6 .4% in May, which was the strongest level since December 2023. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with a forecast of a 0.4% gain for July . This follows a 0.4% gain in June. Consumers remain cautious, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut in May and lower inflation. The RBA shocked the markets last week when it maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as all signs appeared to point to a quarter-point cut. The RBA meets next on August 12. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6562. Below, there is support at 0.6550 There is resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6582
by OANDA
Why election risk means yen volatility could rise this weekThe Japanese yen remains vulnerable ahead of Japan’s Upper House election on July 20. Polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may lose its Upper House majority. Such an outcome would further weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position, with his government already operating as a minority in the Lower House. Adding to the pressure, the U.S. is set to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods from August 1—part of a broader protectionist push.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD Strengthens Against GBP With New Tariff AnnouncementsThis is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: GBPUSD The latest headlines tell the story. The tariffs are triggering a slow run to the USD safe haven. The previous week showed the USD Index closed pretty strong, while GBPUSD weakened. There's a good chance we'll see more of the same this coming week. Look for the strength in USD to continue to be supported by fundamental news, and outperform the other major currencies, including the GBP. Buy USD/xxx Sell xxx/USD Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
BTC is Back in Price Discovery Mode — Targeting $140K!After a clean break above the previous all-time high, Bitcoin has officially entered a new impulse phase, trading within a steep rising channel. The green zone around the previous ATH is now acting as a strong support zone, confirming the shift in market structure. 🟠 The macro trend remains intact, and bulls are clearly in control. 🌀 Corrections continue to offer opportunities for trend-following entries, and if momentum holds, BTC could be on its way toward the $140,000 mark — the upper boundary of the macro channel. Until then, every dip is a gift in this bullish cycle. 🔥 🧠 Trade with the trend. Manage your risk. Stay ready. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
25
UK GBP contracts, pound dipsThe British pound continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3530, down 0.30% on the day. The UK wrapped up the week on a down note, as GDP contracted in May by 0.1% m/m. This followed a 0.3% decline in April and missed the consensus of 0.1%. The decline was driven by a 1% decline in manufacturing and a 0.6% contraction in construction, which cancelled out a 0.1% expansion in services. The GDP contractions in April and May point to a weak second quarter of growth, after an impressive 0.7% gain in the first quarter. The economic landscape remains uncertain and the Bank of England has projected weak growth of 1% for 2025. Governor Bailey has said that the rate path will be "gradually downwards" but hasn't hinted as to the timing of the next cut. The weak GDP data supports the case for an August rate cut, even though headline inflation is running at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.5%, well above the BoE's target of 2%. The money markets have priced in a quarter-point cut in August at 80%, which would lower the cash rate to 4.0%. The BoE released its financial stability report earlier in the week, noting that the outlook for UK growth over the coming year is "a little weaker and more uncertain". The Bank highlighted President Trump's tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East. The UK has recently signed a trade deal with the US but some tariffs on UK products remain in effect. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.3534. Below, there is support at 1.3491 The next resistance lines are 1.3577 and 1.3620
by OANDA
Nasdaq 100 Dips as Tariffs Spark CautionWhile crypto markets rally, U.S. equities have cooled. The Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.6% following the announcement of new tariffs, particularly those aimed at Canadian goods. Tech stocks are reacting cautiously to these developments, although Nvidia’s record-breaking $4 trillion market cap continues to provide some support for the index. With major financials such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting Q2 earnings next week, investors will soon get clarity on how corporate America is coping with higher input costs and global trade tensions. Technical View (Nasdaq 100): The index is consolidating between resistance at 22,900 and support at 22,600. A break above 22,900 could reignite the tech rally, while a drop below support may see price test 22,400 and potentially 22,000 in coming sessions.
FPMARKETS:US100Short
by FDGCapital
Copper - the hot topic this weekUS is planning to implement tariffs on copper imports at a scale of 50%. It's an interesting move, which might not make much sense. Let's dig in. MARKETSCOM:COPPER COMEX:HG1! Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
COMEX:HG1!
by Marketscom
2
Gap below… but copper’s breakout still in playCopper markets erupted higher this week following President Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. The price ripped from just above $5.20 to nearly $5.80 in a single 4-hour candle. Now, copper could be forming a bullish flag or pennant on the 4-hour timeframe. After the vertical spike, price is consolidating in a tight, potentially downward-sloping channel between ~$5.45 and ~$5.60. If confirmed with a clean breakout above the flag’s upper trendline - perhaps near $5.62—the next leg could project toward the previous high near $5.80 There’s also a gap below current price action, between $5.20 and $5.35, formed during the explosive move up. While gaps can act as support zones, they also tend to get revisited.
OANDA:XCUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
1
China's PPI slides, Australian dollar steadyThe Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.03% on the day. China's producer price index surprised on the downside in June, with a steep 3.6% y/y decline. TThe soft PPI report was driven by weak domestic demand and the continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. The lack of consumer demand was reflected in the weak CPI reading of 0.1% y /y, the first gain in four months. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.1%, following a 0.2% drop in May. There was a silver lining as core CPI rose 0.7% y/y, the fastest pace in 14 months. The uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff policy continues to perplex the financial markets. Trump had promised a new round of tariffs against a host of countries on July 9 but he has delayed that deadline until August 1. China, the world's second-largest economy after the US, has taken a hit from US tariffs, as China's exports to the US are down 9.7% this year, However, China has mitigated much of the damage as China's exports to the rest of the world are up 6%. There is a trade truce in effect between the two countries but the bruising trade war will continue to dampen US-China trade. With no tier-1 events out of the US today, the FOMC minutes of the June meeting will be on center stage. The Fed held rates at that meeting and Fed Chair Powell, who has taken a lot of heat from Donald Trump to cut rates, defended his wait-and-see-attitude, citing the uncertainty that Trump's tariffs are having on US growth and inflation forecasts.his was below the May decline of 3.3% and the consensus of -3.2%. China has posted producer deflation for 33 successive months and the June figure marked the steepest slide since July 2023. Monthly, PPI declined by 0.4%, unchanged over the past three months.
by OANDA
Gold at a Decision Point-Just as Tariff Headlines Return(July 9)📌 4H Technical Outlook by MJTrading Price is compressing inside a falling channel, nested within a large symmetrical triangle, and now sits right at a high-stakes confluence zone — a perfect intersection of dynamic EMAs, rising trendline support, and local structure. This could be a pivot point for the next major leg. 🧭 Key Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Breakout Potential: If price breaks above the falling channel and holds above $3,310–$3,320: 🎯 Target: $3,400, and eventually upper triangle resistance near $3,480–$3,500 ✅ Watch for impulsive breakout + retest confirmation 🟡 Bearish Breakdown Risk: If the rising trendline gives way and price closes below $3,275 (High Risk) and $3,245(Low Risk): 🎯 Targets: First $3,232, then key level $3,166 ⚠️ Further weakness may expose $3,000 psychological support 🔍 Why It Matters: • Symmetry + compression = potential volatility expansion • Trump tariff headlines today (July 9) could trigger safe haven demand • Strong historical respect of these trendlines • EMAs aligning around decision zone “Another BreathTaking Edge” — because this is one of those moments where market structure whispers louder than words. 🗣 Boost if you find value, and follow MJTrading for more clean setups.🚀🚀 #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPatterns #PriceAction #BreakoutTrade #Forex #MJTrading Zoom in to get closer to battlefield: Zoom out to see where we are:
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by MJElahifx
5
Quick take on DAXTariffs, no tariffs, tariffs, no tariffs... Let's look at the technical picture... XETR:DAX MARKETSCOM:GERMANY40 Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
XETR:DAX
by Marketscom
Tariff and oil volatility converge on July 9 Tuesday, July 9 marks a key deadline for two major market-moving events. Tuesday is the official deadline for U.S.–EU trade negotiations. While a full deal is off the table, the EU hopes to secure a last-minute "agreement in principle" to avoid a threatened 50% U.S. tariff on some European exports. President Trump’s history of moving deadlines adds uncertainty. Traders might like to watch for sharp intraday moves in EUR/USD and European equities tied to tariff risk. OPEC’s International Seminar also kicks off on the 9th in Vienna. Energy ministers and CEOs from BP, Shell, and others will speak on oil supply, investment, and long-term strategy. Crude has been volatile in July, and any signs of supply shifts or policy changes could drive WTI and Brent in either direction.
EURONEXT:N100
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY Quite IndecisivePrice on TVC:DXY after having broken below the Swing Low on June 12th @ 97.602 has created a lot of Indecision! Starting with a 5 Day Long Consolidation period as a Rectangle Pattern Then after the Bearish Breakout on June 30th due to the Federal Reserve mentioning possibly leaning towards Interest Rate Cuts, we see the TVC:DXY form a Expanding Range Now at the Swing Low and above all the Consolidation or Indecision, we see a Volume Imbalance in the 97.5 - 97.6 area. Fundamentally, USD has been mostly beating expectations with: - Manufacturing and Services PMI's showing Expansion - Job Openings higher then expected - Unemployment Claims Low - Unemployment Rate dropping ( 4.1% ) - Factory Orders Rising Non-Farm Employment however hurt USD with -33K instead of the 99K forecasted With all the Tariff uncertainties and how they will affect Inflation continues to worry markets with only a few deals having been ironed out, like the 20% Tariff on Vietnam ( down from 46% ) before the July 9th Deadline. www.tradingview.com Now with good Employment News out with numbers showing Strong Job Reports, this eases labor fears and could help remove some of the expectations of the amount of Interest Rate cuts this year. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by Novi_Fibonacci
Trump threatens tariff on Japan as deadline looms, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is negative ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.06, up 0.47%. The US and Japan are racing to reach a trade deal before a deadline of July 9. There are some serious roadblocks to a deal, including the current US tariff of 25% on Japanese cars and opening Japan's agricultural sector, particularly rice. President Trump has insisted that Japan import American-grown rice, but the Japanese government says that is unacceptable. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akawaza said earlier this week that Japan would not "sacrifice the agricultural sector", while Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said that foreign rice imports would threaten Japan's food security. It's a shortened week in the US due to the Fourth of July holiday on Friday. The US will release the June employment report on Thursday, with all eyes on nonfarm payrolls. Nonfarm payrolls eased slightly in May to 137 thousand from 147 thousand and the downward trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 110 thousand for June. This would mark the weakest pace of job growth since 2020, with the exception of a meltdown in job growth in Oct. 2024. The Federal Reserve will also be monitoring the nonfarm payroll report. The US labor market has been weakening and the Fed is concerned that the jobs market could show a sharp deterioration. Currently, the most likely date for the next Fed rare cut is September, but a soft NFP reading south of 90 thousand would boost the case for a cut at the July 30 meeting. The Fed has maintained a wait-and-see stance since Nov. 2024 but that is expected to change in the fourth quarter, where we could see up three rate cuts.
by OANDA
1
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors. The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent. Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
INDEX:NKYShort
by UDIS_View
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.14, down 0.55% on the day. Earlier, USD/JPY fell as low as 143.75, its lowest level since June 13. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released early Thursday. Tokyo Core CPI hit 3.6% in May, its highest level in over two years. The market estimate for June stands at 3.3%. The Bank of Japan has signaled that more rate hikes are on the way, provided that inflation continues to move towards the BoJ's level of a sustainable 2%. However, trade talks between the US and Japan have hit a snag, with Japan saying it can't accept US tariffs of 25% on automobiles. The clock is ticking, as US reciprocal tariffs will take effect on July 9 without a deal. The markets are eyeing a possible rate hike in July, which would be the first rate hike since January. The BoJ meets next on July 31, and if the two sides can reach a trade deal before then, it could cement a rate hike at that meeting. Even if the BoJ maintains rates at the upcoming meeting, investors will be keen to see the new inflation and growth forecasts. The BOJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, released Wednesday, didn't provide much insight into the BoJ's rate path. Board members were divided over whether to raise rates in a period of economic uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy. There is support at 144.59 and 143.93 145.27 and 145.93 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA