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Tbonds

Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT T Bonds (ZB) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Tradius_Trades
T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.) Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels. Wait for signs of a reversal, though. p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
CBOT:ZB1!
by Nemo_Confidat
TLT - Intermediate BUY Set-UpHere is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth participating in. See my published ideas linked below covering TBonds yields and ES/SPX pathways related to this supposition. Weekly view of TLT here:
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by oliverrathbun
10 Yr Bonds - Yields Close to an Intermediate Low10 Year bond yields closing in on a wave 4 low. I would expect some sort of base building price action before the next leg up. This will provide clarity on the projected completion of this 5 wave pattern. Yields have recently dropped in a flight to safety surrounding the bank failure panic. Does the stabilization of yields signal that crisis easing? Will the rise in yields negatively or positively impact stocks? What about the dollar, crude oil, gold.... All of these markets are at a transition point. This is a common phenomenon in March... history repeating?
TVC:US10Y
by oliverrathbun
3
The yield curve has inverted, how to overcome this?Content: • Difference between interest rate and yield? • Why it is important to note of yield curve inversion? • How to tell when Yields are inverted? • What is the long-term trend for interest rates and yields • How to manage a rising yield? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. 1. Difference between interest rate and yield? i. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers and ii. Yields are for lenders. For eg. investors to the U.S. government iii. Both interest rates and yields move in tandem together 3. Why is it important to note yield inversion? i. For eg. - when the return on a 30-years yield is lower than the 2-year yield, that indicates a ii. For lenders or investors – a pessimistic outlook, a reluctance to commit their money to the longer-term bond, they prefer short-term deposits as the market is unclear in the long-term. iii. For borrowers – most individuals or companies have shorter-term borrowing, for eg a 2 years fixed rate or a bridging loan. When the yields are inverted, suddenly they find them paying more on interest rates repayment. Since interest rates and yields move in tandem, expect the shorter-term lending rates to go higher. This will hurt companies and individuals who have higher leverage items on their books. If you are into shorter-term trading, do look into the market with live feed data. I am starting an inflation series, in the next video tutorial, we will discuss why inflation is happening not just in U.S. but all around the world. Micro 10 Years Yield Futures 0.001 = US$1 3.488 = 3488 x US$1 = US$3,488 3188 to 3488 = 300 x US$1 = US$300
TVC:US02Y
by konhow
US Dollar at Historic Pivot?DXY - Monthly Linear Mode There's a lot going on here. Bear with me. I've used the 3 major pivot points along with pitchforks median lines from the past 37 years. As you can see we have reached a point of confluence of no fewer than 5 intersecting lines derived from the afore mentioned pivot points. My opinion is that the advance from the 2008 low is corrective in nature and represents a "C" wave. This suggests the next move is lower and in this case that would suggest it takes out the 2008 low. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart so this could possibly take a decade to unfold. The interesting point is related to the fact that this unraveling would bring the dollar back down to the point where the Fed initiated their QE tinkering. What goes around comes around...you can't escape that fact. This will take time. The early part of this presupposed dollar decline may be viewed as a good thing. Markets will probably advance since the dollar advance has been associated with the sell off in the stock market. When the dollar decline gets real I suspect that is when the stock market will move into the decline most have been looking for. At this point it's impossible to know if the tail will be wagging the dog or vice versa. If this transpires as proposed it would fit into my thoughts on where the stock market is currently positioned from an Elliot Wave perspective. See my "Free Market @ Work" publication. I think the coincidence in market position for the US Dollar and the stock market is more than random. This will affect many markets... stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto etc. Should make for some lively trading. Hang on for the ride!
TVC:DXYShort
by oliverrathbun
3
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H1 Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 149'12 Pivot: 148'14 Support : 146'14 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku resistance, we see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 148'14 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 146'14 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 149'12 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: Economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy causes bearish sentiments around the bonds market.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H1 Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 147'30 Pivot: 146'27 Support : 145'23 Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 147'30 in line 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 148'24 in line with 78.60% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension is. Our bearish bias is supported by how price is moving below the Ichimoku indicator. Alternative scenario: If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 147'30 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: Economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy causes bearish sentiments around the bonds market.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 153'11 Support: 150'16 Pivot: 151'30 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 151'30 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance to our 1st support of 150'16 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 153'11 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 163'18 Support: 157'24 Pivot: 159'16 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection to our 1st resistance of 159'27 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario : Price may dip to the support level of 154'25 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Genesiv