Downloading...
Download

Telegram

NZD/USD:FUNDAMENTAL+TECNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔NZD/USD struggles below 0.7000 on mixed concerns over Ukraine, inflation NZD/USD fades recent recovery following a volatile day with the first negative close in three. NATO criticized Russian invasion and braced for Ukraine help, G7 showed diplomacy while US pushed to remove Moscow from G20. Yields stayed firmer even as US data came in mixed, Jobless Claims favored equities. Light calendar keeps focus on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse. NZD/USD dribbles around 0.6960 during the early Friday morning in Asia, after an active Thursday that snapped a two-day uptrend. The market sentiment remains mixed with a rebound in equities failing to justify firmer yields amid indecision over the key risk catalysts surrounding Ukraine and inflation. US President Joe Biden’s European visit offered multiple macros suggesting the Western readiness for more sanctions but the bloc’s leaders and other G7 members showed mixed reactions. That said, US President Biden pushed for removing Russia from the Group of 20 (G20) whereas the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as China’s friendly relations with Russia. It’s worth noting that the Russian Foreign Ministry denounced NATO’s artillery help to Ukraine and turned down the US decision to levy sanctions on gold transactions with the Russian central bank. Elsewhere, fresh fears of covid in China and Europe, with the BA.2 variant tightening grip in the bloc, also weigh on the NZD/USD prices. On the positive side, a slump in the Weekly Jobless Claims to the levels not seen since 1969 joined firmer US Markit PMIs for February to favor the market’s optimism. However, downbeat prints of US Durable Goods Orders and fears of inflation weighed on the sentiment. Additionally defending NZD/USD prices are the comments from ANZ saying, “Yesterday the IMF published its regular Article IV report on the NZ economy. It concluded that ‘significant increases in the official cash rate in the near term are appropriate,’ but warned that a weakening global economy and the withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus would contribute to moderating growth, predicting 2.7% in 2022 (ANZ: 2.1%).” Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks ended Thursday on the positive side whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields rose 3.5% around 2.37% by the end of Thursday’s North American session. Moving on, second-tier US data may entertain NZD/USD traders but headlines concerning Russia and Inflation will be crucial to watch for fresh impulse.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
FTSE UK100:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|LONG SETUP ⭐️FTSE 100 remains green but pegged back by Next disappointment, US markets open higher US stocks open higher but the positive US tech sentiment isn't global FTSE 100 up 11 points at 7,471 Sunak holds back £32bn 'war chest' claim P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking As expected, US stocks opened slightly higher, rebounding from some of the losses they have taken over the last few days. The Dow Jones was up 186 points, or 0.54% to 34,544, while the tech-laden Nasdaq gained 0.28%, climbing 38 points to 13,960. S&P 500 was inched 0.55%, rising 24 points to 4,480. The Nasdaq’s positive start has done little for the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, however, which continued to fall in afternoon trading. The trust was down 2.80%, changing hands at 997p, offsetting some of the gains made over the last week or so. Positive tech sentiment in the US isn’t echoed globally, with Hang Seng down 0.94% to 21,945 points, a 208 point decline. 2.19pm: One month since Russia invaded Ukraine A month on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, stocks market globally are generally better off than just before the invasion, which shouldn’t come as a surprise according to Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at interactive investor. Footsie has regained most of its losses, and is only 20 points behind the close on 23 February, the night before the invasion began, having fallen as low as 6,959 in the week after war broke out. Over in America, the Dow Jones is up nearly 2.38% or roughly 2,600 points over the same period. “If anyone doubted the resilience of stock markets, the past month has demonstrated just how quickly they are able to overcome the impact of shocking events, and this can be uncomfortable for some.” “History proves this to be the case over the long term. Just look at stock markets over the past 100 years. World Wars, pandemics, terrorism, and financial crashes have been brushed aside. Why would massive economic sanctions and threat of nuclear war in 2022 be any different?” 1.51pm: Calls for crypto regulation The Bank of England urged for tighter cryptocurrency regulation on worries of the potential detrimental impact it could have on global financial markets. Its Financial Policy Committee insisted the regulators of the £1.3tn digital currency market must grow and become more coordinated. Deputy governor Sam Woods wrote to several lenders to flag up that crypto long-term regulation would need to be significantly altered to prevent threats to worldwide economic stability. It also said it will advise the Treasury on how best to oversee digital assets – something beyond the realms of the Financial Conduct Authority. 1.20pm: British Airways owner and Wizz Air retreat on Deutsche Bank downgrade International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) SA, owner of British Airways, fell 3.1% on Deutsche Bank’s downgrade of its stock from a ‘buy’ recommendation to ‘hold.’ Wizz Air Holdings PLC (AIM:WIZZ), which is not FTSE 100-listed but also received the same demotion, retreated 2.6% and had its price target slashed to 2,900p from 5,450p – still a 16% premium on Thursday afternoon’s share price though. The German-based investment bank also lowered easyJet PLC’s target to 570p from 680p, which caused a 1.1% drop in its share price. 12.47pm: FTSE remains stagnant The FTSE 100 remained relatively flat, up 10 points to 7,469, as the Budget reaction continued to flood in and Russia opened its stock market, for limited trading, for the first time since it invaded Ukraine. Mexican-based gold and silver miner, Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), led the risers - up 3.3% - while global investment manager M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) was close behind with a 2.7% climb. Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and BP PLC (LSE:BP.) continued to advance, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, following Rishi Sunak’s Wednesday announcement of a record 5p fuel duty slash to alleviate soaring prices. Meanwhile, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines fell 3.31% to 134p, with Schroders PLC (LSE:SDR) also down about 3%, with share changing hands at 3,125p in afternoon trading. 12.16pm: US preview US stocks look set to open higher on Thursday, rebounding from losses in recent days, though gains are likely to be capped amid ongoing worries over high oil and commodity prices and as investors look toward US weekly jobless figures and manufacturing data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.5% on Thursday, while those for the S&P 500 added 0.6% and contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 rose 0.7%. Among commodities, international benchmark Brent crude added 0.3% to $118.09 a barrel, while gold gained 0.4% to $1,945.30 a troy ounce. US major averages took a breather on Wednesday as concerns over the war in Ukraine and its impact on oil prices, and economic uncertainty at home continue to undermine investor sentiment. ‘’There is little sign the pedal is coming off the accelerator for energy prices amid a fresh round of volatility that has hit markets after Russia moved to retaliate in the economic war being waged,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. In a tit-for-tat move, Moscow announced yesterday that it will only accept payment for its exports in roubles after its foreign currency reserves were frozen. “This (Russia’s move) has sent European futures surging and the fear is that this move would deepen the energy crisis and clog agreements worth hundreds of millions of euros every day. In simple words, we are likely to see higher energy prices which means more inflation and gold traders are watching that closely,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. Economic data due out later will keep investors sidelined, Aslam added, forecasting weekly jobless claims at around 210,000 and US durable goods orders down by 0.5%. “Investors are (also) keeping a close watch on the NATO's emergency meeting. President Joe Biden is traveling to Europe to increase pressure on Russia and provide support for a ceasefire,” he concluded. 11.45am: P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking P&O boss Peter Hebblethwaite admitted he receives a £325,000 base salary per year and is in contention for two bonus schemes, which he was undecided on whether to accept. When questioned on bonuses by MPs following the company’s mass sacking of 800 employees without any notice, Hebblethwaite commented "I can't tell you how far that is from my thoughts." "I don't know the answer to that. I don't know," he added, which brought uproar on the potential of his acceptance of possible bonuses. He also admitted that the company’s average hourly pay for new workers is £5.15 an hour, and when asked if he could survive on that, he failed to respond. Hebblethwaite said it did not consult unions as the company knew they would not approve the sackings. 11.10am: Barratt, Berkeley and Persimmon fall as they're urged to fund cladding repair Housebuilders Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV), Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) and Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) are all down today as one of the city’s largest investment firms call on them to fund the cladding repair. According to Sky News, a letter from abrdn to the Footsie listed companies said it wanted them to “carefully consider providing additional financing for all affected buildings built by in the last 30 years, regardless of their height or current ownership, in order to accelerate remediation work to remove the burden on leaseholders". Pressure from the investment company adds to comments made by Michael Gove earlier this year, who wanted the industry to pay £4bn to repair the properties across the country that required improved cladding. A paper commissioned by PwC earlier this month, however, estimated the bill to come in at less than £1bn which boosted the property developers at the time. The report also noted that the government and private companies would be expected to chip in, with the former to contribute because of regulatory failing that allowed the housebuilders to cut corners in the name of profits in the first place. Barratt is down 1.12% to 530p, Berkeley is down 0.58% to 3,960p and Persimmon is down 0.31% to 2,220p. 10.38am: Shell to invest in green energy Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) rose 1% on news that it intends to plough £25bn into UK energy over the next decade, with 75% of that on low-carbon products including hydrogen and offshore wind. "These investments, subject to board approval, aim to propel the UK closer to net-zero and help to ensure security of supply whilst stimulating economic growth and jobs," David Bunch, Shell UK country chairperson, said. He added that it will need “stable political discourse” and urgency from the government to accelerate the shift away from non-renewable energy sources. This came following the company’s decision to sever ties with Russia, via its vows to stop buying the country’s oil, offload its Rosneft (LSE:ROSN) stake and end its Gazprom joint venture, following its invasion of Ukraine. 10.05am: UK sanctions 65 more elite Russian individuals and businesses The UK foreign secretary announced a further 65 sanctions on Russian individuals and businesses, targeting strategic industries, banks and business elites. According to a statement, the sanctions “target key industries supporting Russia’s illegal invasion, including Russian Railways and defence company Kronshtadt, the main producer of Russian drones.” “Six more banks are targeted, including Alfa Bank whose cofounders include previously sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven and German Khan. The world’s largest diamond producer Alrosa is also sanctioned.” “Individuals sanctioned include the billionaire oil tycoon Eugene Shvidler, and Galina Danilchenko, who was installed by Russia as the ‘mayor’ of Melitopol is also sanctioned - the first time an individual has been sanctioned for collaboration with Russian forces currently in Ukraine.” Foreign secretary Liz Truss said “All those sanctioned today will have their assets in the UK frozen which means no UK citizen or company can do business with them, and individuals subject to travel bans are also prohibited from travelling to or from the UK.” “Today’s sanctions will bring the total global asset value of the banks the UK has sanctioned since the invasion to £500bn and the net worth of the oligarchs and family members in excess of £150bn.” 9.45am: Oil stocks lead Footsie Footsie continue to trade healthily led by oil stocks after the crude price headed up towards US$120 barrel overnight. Results were mixed though private equity firm Bridgepoint was an early riser on its results. Shares have been disappointing performers since its float but perked up 12% today as revenues rose by 41% and underlying profits by 72%. The group’s main private equity funds committed €1.9bn to new investments and returned €2.9bn to its fund investors. FTSE 100 up 21 at 7,482. 08:40:Footsie heads higher The FTSE 100 was nudged higher in early trade on Thursday, though it was being put in the shade by the stock market in Moscow, which leapt higher after being closed for a month. One month on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine the siege continues, with world leaders today convening for emergency summits of Nato, EU and European Council. Moscow marked the passing of the month with the reopening of its stock market, which fell 45% on the first day of the invasion before being shutters, and was up 10% in early trade today, with a ban on short-selling and Russian brokerages also banned from allowing foreign clients sell securities. Back in London, blue-chip shares had less support, but the Foosie was up 22 points or 0.3% to 7,483. Top of the leaderboard were precious metals miner Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and drinks bottler Coca-Cola HBC, which has larges exposure to Russia. Clothes retailer Next PLC (LSE:NXT) was down 3% after cutting it profits and sales forecasts for 2022/23 on the back of the war in Ukraine and slowing growth (read more). 6.32am: Slight rise expected The FTSE 100 was being called slightly higher before trading got underway with picking over Rishi Sunak’s Budget likely to be the main focus. Financial spread bet firms had the index up 11 points an hour before trading got underway, but that leaves a lot of time for the mood to change. BP and Unilever going ex-dividend will also be a drag on the early movements. The day after the Budget (read more) is often more instructive than the big headlines as economists pore over the detail, which is where the devil normally lies. Already the Telegraph has pointed out that the chancellor is raising £33bn through an effective stealth tax on students after freezing the level at which their loan repayments begin. This will help more than pay for the income tax cut planned for 2024 and the rise in national insurance thresholds, added the paper. Elsewhere, US markets weakened after the hawkish tone of recent statements from Fed chair Jerome Powell concerning interest rates. Asian markets were mixed towards the end of trading with Japan ahead but Hong Kong still overhung by the uncertainty over the Evergrande situation.
ULong
by INDEX_INSIDERS
FR40 CAC40:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL VIEW | LONG 🔔France: Growth Slows as Repercussions of Russia-Ukraine Conflict Darken Inflation and Fiscal Outlooks Rising spending in dealing with economic and geopolitical repercussions of Russia’s further incursion in the Ukraine additionally weigh on France’s already weakened fiscal outlook as recovery slows, exacerbating long-run credit challenges. Our baseline economic forecast of France is for modest recovery with real growth of 3.6% for 2022 before 2.1% in 2023 (-0.3pps), as growth slows across the euro area. Under a more stressed economic scenario, with higher and more long-lasting price pressures, output growth slows more significantly. However, we assume the energy price shock proves temporary, given futures of oil and gas prices indicating a downward price trend over a next 12 months. One of the main knock-on effects is pressure on government to mitigate inflation and raise defence expenditure One of the main adverse knock-on effects of Russia’s further invasion of the Ukraine for France is pressure the government at this stage faces in mitigating impact of rising inflation as well as to raise defence spending – just as, moreover, recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and associated revenue growth have started slowing. The resulting excess deficit puts pressure on French public finances, which have already deteriorated under the context of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving the country with limited room to raise spending further. French general government debt reached around 115% of GDP in 2021, up from 98% of GDP in 2019. On 16 March, the government announced a fresh package of measures aimed at provision of relief for households and firms hit by rising energy and other prices, including a discount of 15-euro cents a litre on petrol between April and July, energy-price related subsidies for firms and the strengthening of state-backed corporate liquidity facilities. Including previously introduced budgetary support since last September, these measures amount to an aggregate cost of EUR 25bn (circa 1% of GDP). The government has as well started discussion around an increase of civil service salaries in response to rising costs. France does have the advantage, as compared with Germany especially, of comparatively low reliance on oil and gas imports, given Electricité de France’s large park of nuclear power stations, helping ultimately contain France’s rate of inflation as compared with that of the rest of the euro area and expected to cap additional government compensation paid to households and businesses.
OANDA:FR40EURLong
by INDEX_INSIDERS
1
S&P500:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+TECHNICAL SETUP|LONG 🔔S&P 500 Takes Aggressive Fed Rate Hike Bets in Stride The S&P 500 jumped sharply as investors piled into big tech, shrugging off an ongoing rise in yields amid growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to turn more aggressive on rate hikes. The S&P 500 rose 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, or 200 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.8%. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard stressed the need for the Fed to move faster and more aggressively on rate hikes to curb the pace of inflation. The remarks arrived a day after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank would be prepared to hike by more than 25 basis points at upcoming meetings to “ensure a return to price stability.” Wall Street was quick to price in steeper hikes following Powell’s comments, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting a 50 basis point hike at the Fed’s May and June meetings. Regional banks paired some of their recent losses helping the broader financials sector rise more than 1% as rising rates boost the net interest margin of banks. SVB Financial (NASDAQ:SIVB), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) led the move higher. Growth sectors of the market including tech didn’t waver under the pressure of the rising yields. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) climbed more than 2%. Chinese tech stocks were also in the ascendency, supported by a surge in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) after the e-commerce announced boosted its share buyback program to a record $25 billion. JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) and Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD) also rose on Tuesday. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), meanwhile, jumped more than 5% after the electric vehicle maker officially opened its Gigafactory in Berlin. The move is expected to boost Tesla’s market share in Europe. The opening of Giga Berlin “should further vault its market share within Europe over the coming years as more consumers aggressively head down the EV path,” Wedbush said in a note Monday. On the earnings front, Nike (NYSE:NKE), a sizeable Dow Jones index component, rose more than 3% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results. “Recent results and commentary from senior leadership of the company show clearly that NKE is managing well various external headwinds, including ongoing supply chain distributions and geopolitical tensions, across the globe,” Oppenheimer said in a note. “We are optimistic that money will soon flow back into NKE shares.” Energy stocks gave back some of their gains from a day earlier as oil prices turned negative. But losses were kept in check by fears of an oil supply shortage as the European Union mulls joining the U.S. in banning Russian oil.
ULong
by INDEX_INSIDERS
2
SILVER:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | NEXT TARGET LONG SETUP🔔Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD struggles for direction, stuck in a range around $25.00 Silver oscillated in a narrow trading band through the early European session on Thursday. The recent range-bound price action could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Neutral technical indicators warrant some caution before positioning for a meaningful slide. Silver lacked any firm directional bias on Thursday and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session. The white metal was last seen trading just above the key $25.00 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar trading range over the past one-and-a-half week or so. Given the recent sharp pullback from the vicinity of the $27.00 mark or the highest level since June 2021, the range-bound price action could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart - though have been losing positive traction - are yet to confirm a bearish bias. Moreover, the emergence of some dip-buying near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $22.00-$26.95 move up warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAG/USD. In the meantime, immediate resistance is pegged near the $25.40-$25.50 region, above which the momentum could get extended towards the $26.00 mark. Some follow-through buying should accelerate the momentum and lift the XAG/USD towards an intermediate resistance near the $26.40 area en-route the $27.00 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the $24.75 region seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $24.55-$24.50 area (50% Fibo. level). A convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to slide further towards testing sub-$24.00 levels, or the 61.8% Fibo. level.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+TECHNICAL | SHORT SETUP NZD/USD to see a mild strength to 0.70 by year-end – ANZ The kiwi has held up well despite global risk sentiment fading. Economists at ANZ Bank expect the NZD/USD pair to trade at 0.70 by the end of 2022. Still mixed views on how things will unfold “While higher oil prices aren’t a positive for NZ, the generalised rally in commodity prices is, and the NZD seems to be able to latch on to any thread of positivity at the moment.” “Our forecasts call for a mild further strength by year-end (0.70) but we also acknowledge risks of a hard landing, which is becoming a bigger talking point in markets as each day passes. Ahead of expected back-to-back 50bp OCR hikes we think NZ short end rates haven’t yet peaked; all else equal that’s likely to limit how much lower the NZD might be able to go (until the Fed catches up).”
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:DOWNTREND|FUNDAMENTALS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS UPDATE 🔔EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.1000 on USD-strength EUR/USD revisits 1.0970 before attempting a mild bounce. German 10-y bund yields regain the upside and the 0.50% zone. Germany, EMU Flash PMIs surprised to the upside in March. Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment surrounding the single currency, motivating EUR/USD to keep the bearish bias unchanged on Thursday. EUR/USD meets daily support near 1.0970 EUR/USD loses ground for the third session in a row on Thursday, although it managed to rebound from earlier lows in the wake of better-than-forecast preliminary results from PMIs in both Germany and the broader Euroland. In the meantime, no news in the geopolitical front appears to keep lending support to the dollar in the very near term, which remains already underpinned by the Fed-ECB divergence in monetary policy and the US-EU economic growth prospects. The daily pullback in spot came in contrast with the resumption of the uptrend in German 10y benchmark yields, which have retested the 0.50% zone so far on Thursday. Data wise on the US docket, flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due, seconded by Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders and speeches by FOMC’s Waller, Evans and Bostic. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD stays under scrutiny and keeps the downside bias well and sound below the 1.1000 yardstick. So far, pockets of strength in the single currency should appear reinforced by speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB at some point by year end, while higher German yields, elevated inflation, the decent pace of the economic recovery and auspicious results from key fundamentals in the region are also supportive of a firmer euro for the time being. Key events in the euro area this week: Germany, EMU Flash PMIs (Thursday) – Germany IFO Business Climate (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Presidential elections in France in April. Impact of the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Telegram(TON), wait for the BREAKOUT!TelegramCoin(TONCOIN) is near its local lows and there is no hype around this project. This is good for long-term growth! We can expect a strong growth of this project by the speed of its development. But what does the technical analysis show? Right now the price is in a triangle and squeeze under the lower boundary. We can expect a break down and liquidity collection. At the same time, volumes should definitely increase. It means that a buyer has appeared and is actively buying TON. Also, the scenario of squeezing under the upper trend line and breakout is possible. As long as the cryptocurrency market is in an uptrend, then altcoins should be traded by trend. The first target will be the $2.16-2.24 area. The next value zone and target is $2.38-2.46. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU. P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy. Always make your analysis before a trade.
FTX:TONCOINUSD
by Yuriy_Bishko
3
GOLD:FUNDAMENTALS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | LONG VIEW | 🔔Gold prices remain pressured despite recent inaction as Treasury yields renew multi-month top. Stock futures print mild gains but USD bulls stay cautious ahead of Powell’s speech. Ukraine-Russia crisis continues to take a toll on sentiment, Western sanctions eyed. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD braces for another hit, with eyes on Powell and yields Gold (XAU/USD) prices tread water around $1,920-25 heading into Wednesday’s European open. It should be noted that the metal dropped the most since June 2021 the previous week and stays depressed so far during the current week. In doing so, the bright metal struggles for clear direction as the US dollar refrain from rising despite multi-month high Treasury yields. Also restricting the bullion’s immediate moves is the market’s anxiety ahead of a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and mixed concerns over the Ukraine-Russia stand-off. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains lackluster around 98.50 even as the US Treasury yields rally to a three-year high. The reason could be linked to the hopes that central bankers to return to normal after they’re done fighting the inflation woes. It’s worth noting that the global bond markets print the record loss if counted from 2021 top, per Bloomberg. Other than the central bank chatters, the indecision over the Kyiv-Moscow story also limits XAU/USD moves. Recently, Ukraine’s easy stand fails to provide any positive impact as Russian ships play hardball in Mariupol. Also challenging the odds of improving are the Western sanctions. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) signaled that the Biden administration is up for sanctioning over 300 Russian lawmakers while also showing readiness to seize Moscow’s gold with their Treasury. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields renew the highest levels since May 2019, around 2.41% at the latest while the 2-year counterpart prints 2.19% figure by the press time, after renewing three-year top to 2.198% before a few minutes. Also, the stock futures struggle to track Wall Street’s gains by the press time. To gain more clarity over gold prices move, market players will keep eyes on today’s speech from Fed’s Powell as his early-week comments triggered the bond rout.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
12
NZD/USD: FUNDAMENTALS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | POSSIBLE PULLBACK |NZD/USD witnessed modest pullback from the four-month high touched earlier this Wednesday. Elevated US bond yields acted as a tailwind for the USD and prompted some intraday profit-taking. The risk-on mood, rising commodity prices should help limit losses for the resources-linked kiwi. The NZD/USD pair edged lower through the early European session and dropped to a fresh daily low, around mid-0.6900s in the last hour. The pair witnessed modest retracement slide from the four-month high, around the 0.6975 region touched earlier this Wednesday and eroded a part of the previous day's strong gains. The recent runaway rally in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the US dollar, which, in turn, prompted trades to take some profits off their bullish positions around the NZD/USD pair. The sell-off in the US bond market picked up pace after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the US central bank could adopt a more aggressive stance to combat inflation. Moreover, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that it was time to remove policy accommodation, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester called for faster hikes.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD: Watch Out For Possible Bear Trap | SHORT 🔔The EUR/USD closed as a bear bar closing on its low yesterday. This set up a double top at the low of the 3-month trading range (a possible negative gap for the bears). Bears are hopeful the double top will lead to a test of the March low or March 14 higher low. Bulls want a bull breakout of the bear flag. Today, the bulls need to get a strong bull reversal bar to convince traders of a possible bull breakout of a bear flag. Bulls are hopeful that the bull breakout above the March bear flag is strong enough that the bull can get a measured move up of the bear flag (purple lines on chart). That measured move up would also be a test of the February high. The odds are still that the 3-month trading range will be a final flag that will lead to sideways to up trading and a likely test of the February high. Bulls hope they can get a breakout similar to the 4-bar bull breakout that started in the first week of February. Overall, the bears want a double top bear flag, and the bulls want a bull breakout of the double top bear flag. Also, it is essential to remember that even though today looks like it may reverse up, it could look much different when the bar closes. Double tops usually look like they will fail and reverse; however, in general, 40% of double tops are successful.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD:BEARISH DIVERGENCE | SHORT SETUP READY Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Short
by DAY_PROFITS
GBP/USD:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has wavered higher today, despite some troubling UK employment data, as risk appetite recovers. Looking ahead, risk appetite could continue to drive GBP/USD through today’s session, while tomorrow brings the latest US retail sales data. Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Recover as Market Mood Improves The Pound (GBP) initially dipped this morning as market sentiment soured and the UK’s latest jobs data caused concern among GBP investors. The UK’s latest labour market overview from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a larger-than-expected drop in the UK’s unemployment rate. The rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.9% – beating expectations of 4% – putting it back to pre-pandemic levels. However, total employment remains well below its pre-Covid peak. In addition, wage growth fell further behind inflation as the UK’s income squeeze deepens. Real wages, which are adjusted for inflation, suffered the biggest fall in over seven years. This worrying data weighed on Sterling, knocking it lower against the US Dollar (USD). However, risk appetite began to improve among European investors, thereby boosting the risk-sensitive Pound. Diplomats from Russia and Ukraine will continue peace talks today, following negotiations yesterday. Although previous discussions have ended without agreement, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy said that yesterday’s meeting went ‘pretty good’. Markets are therefore growing more hopeful that the war in Ukraine can be solved through diplomatic means. With the ongoing invasion posing significant risks to the UK economy, any positive news is likely to boost Sterling. US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Slip amid Risk-On Trade Meanwhile, the US Dollar is softening as the improving market mood dampens the appeal of the safe-haven currency. In addition, a lower-than-forecast US PPI failed to provide the ‘Greenback’ with much support. USD’s downside is limited, however, as growing Covid cases in China keep a cap on risk appetite. In response to a recent coronavirus outbreak, China has been imposing increasingly widespread restrictions in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus. Yesterday, China quarantined the entire province of Jilin – home to 24 million people. This is the first time China has locked down a whole province since the Hubei province, which contains Wuhan, was locked down at the beginning of the pandemic. Markets are concerned that the restrictions could dent growth in the world’s second-largest economy while also disrupting global supply chains. This is keeping a lid on market optimism today, thereby limiting USD’s losses.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
USD/CAD:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS |U MUST READ|LONG 🔔USD/CAD struggles to defend 1.2600 as Ukraine-Russia crisis favors oil buyers USD/CAD remains pressured around two-week low after declining for the last four days. Geopolitical tussles between Russia and Ukraine recently escalated over Mariupol. WTI crude oil consolidates two-week losses as news from Saudi oil plants joins Ukraine-Russia headlines. Qualitative catalysts will be the key to watch, Fed’s Powell, Biden’s NATO meet will be crucial events. USD/CAD sellers attack 1.2600 during Monday’s Asian session, after posting the biggest weekly loss since late December 2021. In doing so, the Loonie (Canadian dollar) cheers firmer prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, amid supply crunch fears due to the latest geopolitical tensions. Among them, escalated geopolitical tensions in Mariupol of Ukraine and the recent attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities by Yemeni Houthis were the major catalysts. As per the latest headlines from Kyiv Independent, “Ukraine rejects Russia's demand to surrender Mariupol.” During the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Israel for help in pushing back the Russian assault on his country, per Reuters. It’s worth noting that the telephonic talks between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping couldn’t offer any positives over the Ukraine-Russia issue. On the contrary, mentioning Taiwan raised fresh geopolitical fears. On the other hand, Saudi oil plants were attacked by Yemen’s Houthis during the weekend. However, no major challenges to oil supplies could be known. Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-hike couldn’t help the US dollar bulls as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried placating reflation woes. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures pause four-day uptrend and the US 10-year Treasury yields pick-up bids near 2.15% of late. Further, WTI crude oil prices rise 1.20% intraday while flashing $104.50 as a quote by the press time. Looking forward, risk catalysts are likely to remain on the driver’s seat with Ukraine-Russia tensions likely escalating. As a result, the oil prices may witness further upside and can keep USD/CAD sellers hopeful.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTALS NEWS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT 🔔EUR/USD has preserved its recovery momentum after Fed's policy announcements. Euro could continue to push higher in case 1.1050 turns into support. A negative shift in risk mood could limit the pair's upside. EUR/USD has regained its traction after dipping below 1.1000 with the immediate reaction to the US Federal Reserve's policy announcements. The pair consolidates Wednesday's gains near 1.1050 early Thursday and it looks to extend its rebound toward 1.1100 in case this level turns into support. As expected, the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points and the updated Summary of Economic projections showed that policymakers expect to raise the rate six more times by the end of the year. Despite the hawkish policy outlook, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell reassured markets that they would tame inflation without hurting the economic activity and allowed risk flows to dominate the markets. Reflecting the negative impact of Powell's comments on the greenback, the US Dollar Index fell 0.6% on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the Fed is clearly planning to tighten the policy in a much more aggressive way than the European Central Bank (ECB) does and the policy divergence should continue to favour the dollar over the euro moving forward. Hence, it's too early to say whether EUR/USD could go into a steady uptrend in the near term. Meanwhile, markets remain on edge despite Russia's optimistic rhetoric about a peace agreement with Ukraine. Russia reportedly thinks that they made significant progress toward a ceasefire but Ukrainian officials disagree with this view. In the opinion of France's Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian, Russia is only "pretending to negotiate with Ukraine." US stock index futures are posting small losses in the early European session and a negative tilt in the risk mood could make it difficult for EUR/USD to stretch higher. Later in the session, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and February Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic docket but the risk perception is likely to impact the pair's action in the remainder of the day.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
Trading Idea - #Inditex#Inditex - Conviction BUY (long-term) ENTRY: 21.00 EUR TARGET: 29.50 EUR (+40%) STOP: 17.60 EUR Inditex is one of the largest textile companies in the world, based in Arteixo / Galicia (Spain). Inditex specializes in the design, manufacture and distribution of clothing and accessories for men, women and children. Zara is the best-known brand of the group, which also includes Pull&Bear and Bershka. Inditex saw slower sales growth in the final quarter due to new Covid restrictions, but sees rising earnings and a strong business recovery at the start of the new fiscal year. Last year, the Spanish fashion chain with brands such as Zara, Massimo Dutti and Bershka significantly increased sales, net profit almost tripled and margins improved significantly. From a technical analysis perspective, we are at a support level. All signs indicate a bounce and thus a recovery of the chart. According to the current valuation, the fair price (if there is such a thing :-) ) of the share is between EUR 29 and 30. Estimated financial data (EUR) YEAR 2022 Sales 2022 = 27,931 million Net income 2022 = 3 646 million Net liquidity 2022 = 8 446 million P/E ratio 2022 = 18.0x Dividend yield 2022 = 4.82 YEAR 2023 Sales 2023 = 28 855 mn Net income 2023 = 3,626 million Net liquidity 2023 = 10 468 million P/E ratio 2023 = 18.1x Dividend yield 2023 = 5.23
XETR:IXD1Long
by Traderherz-Analytics
USD/CAD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL PATTERN ANALYSIS|MUST READUSD/CAD rebounds from two-week low, inches back closer to mid-1.2600s amid stronger USD USD/CAD reversed an intraday dip to sub-1.2600 levels, or over a two-week low. Resurgent USD demand turned out to be a key factor that extended some support. Steady oil prices, upbeat Canadian data underpinned the loonie and capped gains. The USD/CAD pair built on its steady intraday recovery move from over a two-week low and climbed to a fresh daily top, around the 1.2635-1.2640 region during the early North American session. A combination of factors assisted the USD/CAD pair to attract some buying on the last day of the week and reverse the early dip to sub-1.2600 levels. A goodish pickup in demand for the US dollar acted as a tailwind for spot prices. Apart from this, an intraday pullback in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and provided modest lift to the major. Investors turned caution amid the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian Presidential aide Ihor Zhovkva said that talks with Russia are progressing very slowly. Russia accused Ukraine of slowing down peace talks and said that it wants to go at a faster pace, though the Ukraine delegation has not shown readiness to speed talks. This, in turn, tempered investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The market nervousness was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets, which drove some haven flows towards the greenback. Apart from this, the Fed's hawkish outlook further underpinned the buck. Apart from the anti-risk flow, concerns about reduced fuel demand - amid the resurgent of COVID-19 cases in China, Europe and New Zealand - weighed on crude oil prices. That said, the intraday downtick in the black liquid remained limited. This, along with better-than-expected Canadian macro data, benefitted the domestic currency and capped the USD/CAD pair. According to the data released by Statistics Canada, the headline Retail Sales rose at a pace of 3.2% MoM in January as against the consensus estimate for a growth of 2.4%. This comes on the back of hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, which should further add pressure on the Bank of Canada to accelerate rate hikes. The fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/CAD pair has bottomed out or positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. That said, bearish traders are likely to wait for sustained break below the 200-day SMA. Some follow-through selling below the monthly low, around the 1.2585 region, will set the stage for additional losses.
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | WE ARE LONG √Modest USD strength prompted fresh selling around gold on the last day of the week. The Fed’s hawkish outlook was seen as a key factor that assisted the USD to gain traction. A generally weaker risk tone extended some support to the safe-haven precious metal. Gold witnessed some selling during the Asian session on Friday and for now, seems to have stalled its recent goodish rebound from sub-$1,900 levels, or the monthly low touched earlier this week. The downtick was sponsored by modest US dollar strength, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The greenback lost traction after the Fed on Wednesday hiked its target fund rate by 25 bps and disappointed some investors expecting a more aggressive increase in borrowing costs. That said, the start of the policy tightening cycle, along with the Fed's hawkish outlook, helped limit deeper losses for the buck. In fact, the so-called dot plot indicated that the Fed could raise rates at all the six remaining meetings in 2022 to combat stubbornly high inflation. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank could start shrinking its near $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as the next meeting in May. Powell further emphasised that the economy was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy and financial conditions. This, in turn, allowed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady near its highest point since 2019, which was seen as another factor that acted as a headwind for the non-yielding gold. The downside, however, remains cushioned, at least for the time being, amid worries about the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. This kept a lid on the recent optimistic move in the markets, instead triggered a fresh leg down in the equity markets and extended some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before traders start positioning for the resumption of the recent sharp pullback from the $2,070 area, or the highest level since August 2020. Nevertheless, gold, for now, seems to have snapped two days of the winning streak and remains on track to record its first down week in three. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing gold prices. Apart from this, traders will take cues from fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga. The incoming geopolitical headlines, along with a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping would drive the broader market risk sentiment. This, in turn, should provide some impetus to the precious metal and allow traders to grab some short-term opportunities on the last day of the week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔EUR/USD wanes back under 1.1100 but still holds on to solid post-Fed policy announcement gains EUR/USD has been waning from earlier session highs in recent trade and is now back below the 1.1100 level. Since Wednesday’s Fed hawkish policy announcement, EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, flummoxing some analysts. Markets seem to currently be being driven by “hopes” for a Russo-Ukraine peace deal, meaning geopolitics remains a key theme. EUR/USD has been waning in recent trade and recently fell back under the 1.1100 level, meaning that the pair has, for now, failed to break above its 21-Day Moving Average at 1.1108. Nonetheless, the pair is still trading with gains of about 0.6% on the day, as the dollar succumbs to broad weakness despite strong US weekly jobless claims numbers and a better-than-expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey released earlier in the session. Since Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, despite the fact that the Fed signaled its intention to hike interest rates at all of its remaining rate decisions this year, which was more hawkish than market participants had been expecting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even warned that the pace of rate increases might be accelerated if deemed necessary and that the Fed could decide to take interest rates well beyond the so-called “neutral” level (in the 2.0-2.5% area) if inflation fails to abate as expected. Despite all this hawkishness, the buck has failed to benefit, flummoxing some analysts. Clearly, markets are more focused right now on geopolitics and the apparent hope that Russia and Ukraine might reach some sort of peace deal in the near future. Reporting on this front over the last few days has been mixed and conflicting, making it difficult to assign a probability to a peace deal being reached. But traders have nonetheless used “hope” as an excuse to pair US dollar longs, just as they have used this as an excuse to bid up equities in recent sessions. Whether this momentum can last is the big question and markets are very much expected to remain choppy and headline-driven with a focus on geopolitical headlines in the coming weeks. Ultimately, while a peace deal might offer EUR/USD some near-term respite, the theme of West/Russia economic decoupling is not going anywhere. A ceasefire in Ukraine doesn’t mean the massive hit to the Eurozone economy as a result of Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion will be magically and immediately negated. 1.1100 is actually a key level of support turned resistance for EUR/USD, and its failure on Thursday to hold above this level might herald some near-term profit taking that could see the pair move back towards 1.10.
Short
by FOREXN1
6
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | MUST READ | SHORTEUR/USD: At risk of falling to 2020 lows at 1.0635/40 despite shift in EU and ECB coordination – Westpac European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish taper twist suggests that it will act on a “whatever it takes” basis to contain inflation and so EUR may find sound support if the Ukraine conflict is contained. However, a spike towards 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, economists at Westpac report. The shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support “ECB President Lagarde stated that greater ‘optionality’, or flexibility, was needed to deal with rising risks (of stagflation). This clear hawkish tilt reflects an equally dramatic, if less overt, shift in EU and Eurozone finance ministers. They are now open to coordinated regional fiscal support to support households deal with surging energy prices, accelerate energy transition, lift security spending and support regional economies. This ‘whatever it takes’ approach from EU/Eurozone if conflict is contained, may have put a floor under the vulnerable EUR.” “Even if flash PMI and IFO data reflect the ZEW surveys, the shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support.” “EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a retest of 1.08 and a spike towards the 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, but risks appear more balanced and a close above 1.11 could establish a firmer range for EUR/USD.”
Short
by FOREXN1
2
AUD/CAD: RETEST SMA AND STRONG LEVEL | PRICE FALL Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Short
by DAY_PROFITS