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Tenyear

100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction. *** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bonds Pick UpBonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are already seeing steep resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up, but is a oscillating with the dips, suggesting we need to see more momentum to come through to sustain the rally. If we selloff further, then we should see support at 119'01 then 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
The Bond Selloff ResumesAs anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at 117'19. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold, so watch for a relief rally, which could test 119'01 again.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Lower LevelsBonds appeared to be making an effort to attempt higher levels, with a bull wedge pattern forming with an upper bound at 128'10. However, we broke down from this pattern, smashing through the 128 handle into the 127's and then some. The next level of support at 127'22 did little to provide support, though we finally bottomed out for now just above 127'08. Currently, we are seeing a brief pivot with an attempt to break 127'22 from below which is meeting resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. If we are able to break this level, the next target is 128'01. The Kovach OBV has flattened out suggesting we won't expect much in the way of momentum for now. If we fall further, 127'08 should provide support, then 127'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bond Market Indicating Risk On Environment?If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of this soft money cycle. Of course Ray Dalio mentioning how there are many similarities to the 1930's-40's. Today we are hearing about the repo market. How money has to be injected to ensure the system is propped up and interest rates do NOT spike up to double digits. Lot of argument whether is is Quantitative Easing (QE) or not. Remember, the Fed cannot mention QE because it could trigger a confidence crisis. QE was supposed to be a one time desperate policy to prevent another 1930's like great DEPRESSION. If it is mentioned we are on QE again people will realize that central bank policies did not work and we are stuck in 0 to negative interest rates forever with QE infinity. QE was a way to inject money into the system by the Central bank buying up bonds. Repo is when the central bank directly gives money to the banks and receives collateral in return...they say this is US treasures but it could very well be toxic assets. The difference between QE and Repo is really new bonds/debt vs old bonds/debts. It still is about injecting money into the system to more importantly, keep interest rates suppressed. Because of this environment, I have said bonds are a great long term trade because central banks will be cutting to 0. Specifically Canadian bonds because I believe the market has not priced in Canadian rate cuts until this past week. Historically, bonds are not meant to be traded. As the European Fixed Income traders say, we basically buy bonds because we believe we can sell it to a greater fool who will buy it. Bonds brought in reliable income, and a decade ago when you retired with say 1,000,000 dollars, you would buy government bonds yielding 5-8% at the time which would provide you with 50,000-80,000 a year...which is enough to live off when retired. Today you would get 15,000-30,000. When Central Banks started QE and began keeping interest rates low, they caused money to flow to the stock market and real estate as money had to chase yield. Again, if you follow my work, today there is nowhere to go for yield EXCEPT the stock markets and why I think they will continue to go up. So let us look at the bond charts. So I am showing the yields. Remember there is an inverse relationship between bonds and yields. When bonds go up the yield drops and vice versa. On the ten year yield, we have a potential bottoming pattern here. Yields bounced at the important support level of 1.40. I am one who believes the Fed will cut one more time this year...something the market has not priced in yet but could very well be pricing in the closer we get to December. This is what would keep yields dropping lower and bonds moving higher as more people price in more rate cuts. This move in yields currently may be a relief move. We have trended (downtrend) for sometime with multiple waves. We have broken into all time new highs in stocks (again not surprising if you follow my work. Have been saying this would happen because of chasing yield). When people buy stocks and exit bonds, we call this a risk on environment. Whereas when one sells stocks and goes into bonds, we call this risk off. Remember, money managers cannot really be in cash all the time. It has to be working somewhere and most of it goes into bonds during times of uncertainty, volatility and risk etc. The Bond chart is also showing a topping pattern (so remember inverse with yield): Just a crazy environment we are in really but continue to watch the Bond market. I expect in the longer term bonds to go higher because central banks will cut rates even more. We then get to a point, which Ray Dalio calls the paradigm shift, where it will not make sense to buy and hold bonds (currently you can still sell it to a bigger fool).
TVC:TNX
by Uncharted-FX
10 Year T Note: Triple Bottom. Major long term Buy Opportunity.The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000), detaching it from its previous bearish levels. We are expecting a major cyclical bullish move in the next 2+ years towards at least 32.00. Shorter term investors should look towards the inner Channel Up (dashed lines) for pivotal sell/ buy entries. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TLong
by InvestingScope
TNX: Ten Year T Note and Super long term trend in interest ratesTEN year T Note: TNX The Super Long-Trem Trend in Rates - Right Side/Wrong Side Ms Yellen is scarred by her being accused of messing up the markets in mid 2015 and causing a 6 month 21% decline (nothing to do with her in fact, it was more to do with Nasdaq double topping in mid 2015 at the old 2000 cycle high - exactly same time from high in 2000 to the high reached in 2007 added on in time to that 2007 high gets you to mid 2015 high (actually it's 10 days out but has nothing to do with Yellen, but the lazy press used it to provide a reason for a decline... a cycle is just way too vague and esoteric for them to understand, they need a story after all to sell their 'news' to those who wish to know what happened yesterday). So Yellen is scarred. She should be raising rates today - if she doesn't she she's a wimp, but although her speech and Q/A will be cheerful and the markets will like it as it goes on most likely, it has a good chance of ending with a sting in the tail/tale. Inflation has never been a worry really since 1980 - there have been intermittent scares along the way but the trend has been relentlessly down since rates hit a high at 15.5% in 1980 - this was caused by wage inflation and led to the demise of unbridled union power (praise be, something good came of it both in US and UK) And in that long period wage inflation has subdued and been kept low by immigration trends which are themselves now being addressed in both countries. Long long story short earnings are now rising at 4.1% and will keep rising...it's this that will trip the Fed into tightening more than it currrently expects. We are entering a LONG cycle of rising rates and wages caught in a spiral that ends with much higher rates than anyone ever expected at the outset. After long periods of stability the Fed and BoE tend to buy into the theme that they are back in control of the 'cycle' and to an extent, they are, as the cycle and therefore the markets run on the benign side of the curve. But as time passes they begin to lose control (they never really had it anyway, just the illusion of control which the cycle has given them) - and the cycle slowly turns from benign to malign. We are at that point now, very early on in the turn. It will likely end with rates at 15 to 16% - but it will take a generation to get there. In this way each generation repeats the mistakes of the 2 generations that went before it. It is these 'mistakes' that make markets behave in cyclical ways - if there were no mistakes markets would rise in straight lines. They don't and never have done. Just look at Bitcoin today.
TLong
by sumastardon