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Themerge

The Merge vs Bitcoin InconsistenciesHere two signals that calls for attention. Inconsistencies between the Merge and bitcoin charts. The Ethereum Merge is the second biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Not a real cryptocurrency as bitcoin because Bitcoin is a decentralized network with many incredible features. While the Merge is an amazing tool for sure but it is more centralized than Binance and Bank of America combined. Maybe you heard about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency and decided to join the space to protect/diversify your savings. Got caught up in the hype and end up putting your money in the Ethereum Merge... Guess what? You can wake up one day and have no-money just as any other fiat currency as Ethereum is a centralized game, not the real Bitcoin, still a great tool but we just need to make sure to know the difference. You want a store of value, decentralization and a community driven cryptocurrency that's definitely Bitcoin. If you want to invest in some altcoin or develop a dApp then Ethereum can be the choice. Bitcoin is the true digital GOLD! Notice that Ethereum did not produce a lower low in November while bitcoin did even though the bear volume is much stronger in November compared to June. What to make of this discrepancy? Just as we saw how the SPX and bitcoin detached in November and bitcoin went down while the SPX corrected upwards. The reasons can be many but here is something of importance. What these signals are telling us clearly is change. Something CHANGED. The SPX and BTC decoupled, bitcoin and the Merge not behaving in the same way... Small changes but these are the things that can alert you to the upcoming change of trend. Why would all these companies, all these people, everybody collide to call a hard-fork a merge? Why? We all know what a hard-fork is and understand it so well. Why call it exactly the contrary? Why? They can just come out and say, Ethereum will have a hard-fork as has been planned for years, thanks for your support we love you. But instead... Massive hype, massive deceit, hide the details, paid promotion and why? To make some profit? Just to fool people for the fun of it? To grow the market? That's not how markets grow. If you are looking for grow you have to think in the long-term. BTC. Anyways... They deceive you because they are only going after money and power... The pretty talk is just the tool to take your money away. Always do your own research. And even though we love cryptocurrency, remember that the players are all the same. Actions speak louder than words. Enjoy the Ethereum Merge. Namaste.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by MasterAnanda
17
The End of the Deflationary Asset EraDeflationary assets - aka artificial scarcity - is a product of the mediocre mind. Exponential growth and real social progress comes from the idea of "growing the pie". It's weird how people don't use that phrase anymore since it has become such a foreign concept at this point. Bitcoin  (and now Ethereum), NFTs, real-estate (both IRL and the metaverse), healthcare, education, and the economy as a whole has succumbed to the "scarcity mindset" and is in danger of collapsing on itself since it doesn't know how to grow its ecosystem from its base. Those mythical 100000x returns doesn't come from flipping or nickle-and-diming individuals but from growing the ecosystem as a whole. To keep the good times going, the response should be to increase capacity, not try to ration out your existing stock. Ethereum was particularly disappointing to watch this year because they had the capability to be so much more but chose the mediocre path when they started burning their own supply. Like Bitcoin, they put an expiration date on themselves and can now only expect modest returns from here on out. To be fair, "growing the pie" is very difficult and requires a higher degree of creativity and ability to spot new win-win scenarios from seemingly thin air. But that's why we have geniuses and entrepreneurs to fill that role that typical biz-dev types are unable to do. As the scarcity economies continues to do what it does - shrink - it's unfortunately going to take innocent bystanders with them. We're going to find that most of our tax dollars have been working to keep the illusion of sustainability rather than of real growth. But the silver lining is that as the status quo continues to implode on itself, the opportunity to grow the pie once again becomes possible. It's a cycle that has happened before and will happen again. With that, it's at least possible to navigate through the chaos. Good luck, folks. 🤞
BITFINEX:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Too Good To Be True? Staking Rewards and the RecessionAs some analysts have predicted, the public's interest in crypto/Web3 projects have shifted from proof-of-work over to proof-of-stake, following Ethereum's "merge" a few weeks ago. ATOM and ALGO in particular did very well this week (though it did level off eventually) as what seems to be a partial migration of crypto money flowing from one area to the next. The pattern is just starting now so time will tell if it's a trend or a blip, but as we head further into a global recession, the idea of people "abandoning" stocks and other traditional fiat assets becomes more a possibility over time. We can look at some of the predictions being made right now in the industry, and its pros and cons. 1. Crypto Will Go Down With Fiat Given that crypto and the stock market have traditionally moved in parallel for the most part, it will continue to do the same during the downturn. This assumes that the low-interest rates of 2008+ onwards was also fueling the crypto hype and will follow the same pattern of prices plunging as cheap borrowing falls to the wayside. While there's certainly a case there, this assumes that the economy will behave "as normal" during the next downturn - which may bring a different type of risk to the table. 2. Money Will Flow into Bitcoin/Ethereum This is the main mantra of the "maxis" out there - they assume that people will lose faith in fiat as a whole, and convert their stocks/cash into a "reliable deflationary asset" like Bitcoin or (now) Ethereum. Deflationary assets - while some will call "ponzi-like" in its modeling - do objectively favor existing holders over newer ones, and can often cause problems with onboarding and long-term growth since it makes it more difficult for new money to come in. Given the two projects massive media/marketing presence last year, are there any more people out there to onboard? Probably not - but they are holding out for the idea that they will be proven right, one day. 3. Money Will Flow into "Cash-Like" Assets Like Dogecoin Traditional financial wisdom says that during recessions, "cash is king" - and we have seen some indication that money is starting to flow back into cash, especially the USD. (The USD is traditionally seen as the most "stable" and is typically where fiat assets flow into during recessions.) What does this mean for crypto? Well, up until now the narrative has been that out of the well-known coins out there, Dogecoin is the most "cash-like" since it's been actually used to buy and sell things at low costs. While the idea is interesting, DOGE has a few problems associated with it - that it still runs on proof-of-work (which is losing favor over time) and that being a fork of Bitcoin, it's technology is also being rapidly obsolete. (It cannot support NFT minting, for example.) There are plans for DOGE to move over to proof-of-stake eventually, but the timeline is TBD. 4. Money Will Flow into Staking Rewards As with ATOM/ALGO this past week, some lesser-known proof-of-stake coins have made its move - currently coins that offer competitive staking rewards are beating both the banks and the major proof-of-work coins, whom are simply unable to offer those types of rewards. ETH2 is now technically proof-of-stake, but its staking mechanisms aren't "liquid" - i.e. you don't know when you can get your money out. Some coins offer very high rewards (13%+) but is that too good to be true? Time will tell whether or not this model is sustainable or not. 5. Money Will Flow into Coins that Have Utility Arguably crypto's least talked about topic in public - coins that have real-life use-cases and actual products may start to see some gains as utility creates new converts over to particular projects. As the money for hype marketing strategies start to run low, many of the coins that have been running on it will start to drop out, making it easier for coins with real customers and revenue to stand out. Some coins have no value other than "store of value" - some coins have robust DeFi options but basically operates like an accounting firm - but there are a few projects out there that are attempting to expand into the worlds of direct applications. This is probably the most optimistic take on Web3's future as a whole, but the path of getting there isn't likely to be smooth - they don't call it "creative destruction" for nothing, after all. Of the projects out there, Tezos (XTZ) stands out as one of the few projects that have their hands in "everything" - with a diverse portfolio of projects in many sectors and brands across the world. (ETH does too, but their gas-fee problem has slowed technical and partnership development to a halt.) -- The actual outcome will probably some combination of the trends above, and is likely to get very complicated as time goes on, but I do think that it's important to keep an eye out for how key factions and ideas are circulating in the space right now since a lot of things are likely to change very quickly in the near future as we head further into what could potentially be the biggest global recession ever recorded in human history. "Higher numbers = good" has been the main focus of the crypto industry up until now but as time goes on we're likely to see more complex and nuanced takes on how the economy works and how Web3 fits into it as a whole. There might be some growing pains involved but this is how our understanding of economics matures, imo.
BITFINEX:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
The Proof-of-Stake Era is Here. Can ETH Survive the Winter?After Ethereum's "merge" this week, the crypto market continues to sag as a whole, unimpressed. One pattern we see emerging is that coins that have been proof-of-stake since the very beginning (especially ATOM and ALGO this week) have been performing very well relative to the rest of the market. (Coins to keep an eye on in the near future: XTZ, ADA, TRON, MATIC, etc.) As we head further into the recession we're going to start to see some of these patterns get more aggressive. The reason why this is happening should be pretty obvious at this point: people's attentions are switching over to proof-of-stake, and the coins that offer competitive staking rewards (aka interest rates) are starting to attract new customers. Flipping NFTs is too confusing to most people but most people can tell when one rate is higher than another. (Especially since most banks are still stuck in 0-interest rate savings mode at the moment.) The crypto community has largely been down on Ethereum lately as the realization that they've fallen behind the curve starts to settle in. But they're certainly not out of the race yet - the roadmap to make ETH competitive in the proof-of-stake race is pretty clear: 1) Make staking liquid - the fact that it's locked up for an indefinite period of time is pretty ridiculous, possibly illegal. (Probably in their own interest to do so quickly before it turns into a lawsuit, tbh.) As it stands now ETH's staking rewards are too cumbersome and not competitive enough for people to consider. 2) Adopting on-chain governance would make skeptics feel at ease and would quell some of the criticisms coming from the Bitcoin maxis too. The real problem is transparency, not centralization. 3) Fix the issues with scaling to bring gas fees down, finally. They can probably consult people from other chains who have already figured it out. (If they can get over themselves, that is, lol.) They definitely have the resources to do so - that was never in question. Whether they're actually gonna do it, though, that's another story. I didn't exit completely but as a disclaimer I did sell off a pretty big portion of my ETH holdings this year because of concerns over its long-term prospects. Ethereum may be well on its way to becoming Bitcoin 2.0, given that it's now become a deflationary asset. If you're an ETH holder you'll probably be OK since they'll probably continue to burn their supply to make sure that the price doesn't go down too much. Silicon Valley is known for their appeasement of the investor class and we're likely to see the same pattern play out again. But keep in mind that each coin burned just makes it harder for new people to come in - what they've done is basically put an expiration date on their own project since they're actively restricting the platform's growth now. (Crypto NIMBYism, as I like to call it.) Coin supply is a controversial topic in the industry but can be understood in a fairly straight-forward way: The higher the supply, the better it is for newcomers; the lower the supply, the better it is for existing holders. Maxis will repeat whatever marketing slogans they were fed but at the end of the day, it's about who's back you're willing to scratch. Getting returns on your investment requires you to see things as they are and read between the lines of what's being said - are they using that wealth to make genuine improvements on the protocol itself, or are they just hoarding it and promoting the scarcity model behind your backs? More coin supply to attract new talent/investors? Sure, good idea in theory. Just not here - "Not In My Back Yard". NIMBYism is a thing you see in the real-estate markets, and we start to see its ugly head rear in the crypto space, too. I do owe a lot to ETH - it stabilized my finances, paid off my student loans, and gave me the time to do the things I wanted to do, rather than had to do. But it's probably time for me to move on - I'm here for the dream, not just the money. 🔥
Long
by RyanTanaka
How Governance Affects a Cryptocurrency's Coin Supply and PriceAs of last year, the top 3 most well-known coins - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin - have all become "predictable" in terms of its coin supply. BTC has always had a fixed supply cap, ETH has become aggressively deflationary after its EIP-1559 upgrade started "burning" its supply, and Dogecoin is technically "disinflationary" since the rate at which the protocol issues its coins is set to slow down gradually over time. (People have estimated ~5% going downwards to 1% or less over the course of many years.) What all 3 coins have in common: 1) the supply curves for these coins are fixed and predictable 2) political leverage correlates directly with the ownership of money itself 3) the economic trajectories of each coin are basically unchangeable without some sort of centralized control Bitcoin and Dogecoin's protocol decisions are handled by the mining community (they decide which blocks to continue mining, in case there is a disagreement), and now that Ethereum has moved over to proof-of-stake, most of its major decisions will be decided by the core team itself. With proof-of-work, hash power is political leverage, with proof-of-stake, the coins itself does the same. While maxis focus on the differences between the two, at the end of the day, leverage over the system is measured in terms of how much resources you're willing to spend on your particular "vote" - it just depends on which you prefer - hash-power, or money-power. To be fair, this is how most coins operate right now since it is currently not possible to reliably do a "one person one vote" model (as is typically done in developed democracies) since identifying an anonymous wallet as a "person" is extremely difficult. So as a lesser evil, we use money-invested (aka your "stake") as means of measuring how much influence one should have on an ecosystem as a whole. (In this regard, most cryptocurrencies are similar to corporate shareholder models.) Until we have a better way of identifying people online as being "real", we're likely to be stuck with this model for a while, but not all coin systems are created equal - some will probably have better long-term viability than others. And a lot of that will be determined by how each coin handles its governance procedures. Proof-of-work systems right now have no means of reliably doing voting/governance on-chain - as a result, most coins opt to do their voting through third-party systems or platforms. While this can sometimes work, there is no "receipt" of whether the tally was legitimate or not - you just have to trust that the people conducting the polls were doing it in good faith. BTC/DOGE has never had on-chain governance and likely never will, while ETH currently possesses the potential to do, but seems unlikely now that it has also become deflationary. The "fixed supply" argument is similar to the "buy gold" argument in that there is an inherent distrust of supply curves that are "flexible" - the idea that when there is less of something it's going to be worth more is an intuitive argument that makes sense to a lot of people, at least on the surface. But ideally, you want the price of a coin to go up because there's more demand for it, rather than inflating it artificially by burning your supply - the less there is of something, the more out of reach it becomes for newcomers and people will less money, after all. So when a project puts "fixed supply" as part of its core value proposition, it's basically prioritizing the short-term appeasement of existing holders at the expense of future growth. We see a similar type of scarcity mindset (the "I got mine" syndrome) in assets like real-estate and gold as well, which are also both about to face corrections of their own. An asset starts to "bubble" when prices increase but quality goes down - then "pops" when the demand for it bottoms out as people realize that it's not worth it. Ideally, you want the economy to be flexible enough to handle swings in demand/usage, while keeping incentives aligned between all parties (investors, validators, users) at all times. It requires a very careful balancing act that exists somewhere in between fixed and infinite supply - and even better if these decisions are made through consensus mechanism rather than a unilateral decision made behind closed doors. (Tezos' self-amending protocol, combined with its on-chain governance system stands out as unique in this regard.) -- So what to do if you're an existing HODLer? Well, short to medium term, coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin will probably maintain their price as long as people come see it as a viable alternative to traditional assets as we get further into the recession -- that's the big bet that many are taking right now. But it does come with the understanding that it's probably only likely to happen once or twice more before the market saturates completely and hits its peak. Here crypto is at a disadvantage compared to assets like real-estate or tangible goods, since there's nothing forcing people to use BTC/ETH in particular - there are many other options in the market, after all. For more discussions about coin supply issues, here: www.reddit.com
COINBASE:XTZUSDEducation
by RyanTanaka
The Market Has Spoken - "Liquid Staking" is the FutureFollowing this week's inflation report and the much-anticipated "The Merge" on Ethereum's ecosystem, the crypto markets took a massive dip - in particular, ETH itself. This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern as the hype towards the merge date neared, then the massive-selloff right after. But not all coins were in the red - COSMOS (ATOM) did very well this week, and showed a very strong decoupling pattern from the rest of the pack. Why? Because they currently offer the best staking rewards (15%+!) out there, beating both the banks and its competitors by a very large margin. If you wanted to sell ETH but stay in crypto, it was the most obvious option to go with, at least on paper. ETH2 has the problem of being illiquid (there is no set date for when you can withdraw your funds), as well as expensive - which will likely lead to the coin struggling over the long-term as coins that offer low-fee liquid staking (ADA, XTZ, DOT, MATIC, AVAX, etc.) has had a much longer time. ETH2 "final form" isn't likely to happen any time soon (some say as long as 6 years) so they are currently behind the curve of industry standards, not ahead. Whether they can catch up to the rest is yet to be seen. Now that ETH has de-coupled itself from proof-of-work, we're going to start to see public attention towards different aspects of Web3 and DeFi - and staking rewards is likely to be the talk of the town, especially as we go further into the recession.
Long
by RyanTanaka
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BearishETHUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% ETH, 75% Cash. *After a successful Merge, Ethereum is now a Proof of Stake network... and in classic Crypto fashion, it appears to be going through a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" cycle. Cryptos, Equities, Futures, Commodities and the VIX are down while the Euro, US Treasuries and DXY are up on the day. US August Retail Sales were up 0.3% compared to consensus estimates of 0.1% and July's -0.4% reading. This higher than expected reading on US Retail Sales paired with a higher CPI will likely influence the Fed to stick to their 'beyond-neutral' commitment to getting inflation down by raising FFR by 75bps or even 100bps on 09/21. The 12th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is now 0.5% compared to 1.3% on 09/09/22 . Key Upcoming Dates: UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.* Price is currently trending down at ~$1500 as it breaks below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$1640, the next support is at $1427. Volume is currently High (low) and is on track to favor sellers in today's session, if it does it would make four of the past five session dominated by sellers. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1785, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 42 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from February 2020 at 55 resistance, the next support is the lower trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle at 37 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 10 but is still technically testing 18 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at 3.5 after being rejected by 28 resistance, the next support is at -46. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price falls, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as resistance between ~$1600 and $1711 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to fall, it will likely formally retest $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1600.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
Ethereum Completes its "Merge". What's Next for ETH2?The much anticipated "merge" has happened on the Ethereum network as of last night - so far there doesn't seem to be any major shifts, although if you're an ETH holder you may have noticed a sharp drop-off in price as of this morning. (The market is down as a whole, but ETH took a bigger hit than most, as of today.) This pattern can be seen pretty often in the industry, where a technical upgrade or public hype often triggers a short-term rally as it gets close to the date, then a massive sell-off right after. (Dogecoin in particular tends to be very susceptible to this especially on Twitter, I've noticed.) While some attribute this behavior as "whale activity", it's usually a sign that ETH still has downward pressure in terms of price - experienced investors often try to time their liquidations by riding short-term hype cycles of clearly-defined dates, as seen here. While the merge was a momentous occasion for the chain for sure, now that it's over it's going to shift the attention of the project to a number of challenges that will likely determine the viability of ETH2 in the long-term. A few of them are: - Yesterday probably marks the beginning of the proof-of-stake era for the crypto industry, especially as we head further into the recession and staking rewards (interest rates) start looking more appealing as a place for people to park their money, longer-term. ETH has made that transition, but there are also already many competitors out there (Tezos, Cardano, Cosmos, TRON, etc.) that outperforms ETH2's staking rewards by a very large margin right now. (Though to be fair, ETH2 is still beating the banks, which still is trying to stay at near-0, despite the Fed's rate hikes.) - "The merge" is only 1 out of 5 steps (Merge, Surge, Verge, Purge, Splurge) until ETH2 is "fully done", which is estimated to take 6 years or longer. Gas fees won't be affected until their "sharding" upgrade is complete, which doesn't have a deadline as of yet. (Until then, most ETH apps will largely sit idle/abandoned since practical usage is just not possible right now.) 6 years is a very long time to sit idle, really. - ETH2 is currently not liquid (you're not allowed to withdraw from ETH2 accounts until they're "ready"), which makes it much more inflexible and risky than traditional CDs and bonds that have fixed end dates. This is likely to make it very unappealing for most investors out there who will need more clarity and stability in their returns, especially during bear markets. - Though in theory they are supposed to be independent, we don't actually know what sorts of after-effects ETH2 will have on Layer 2s and ERC tokens built on top of the original chain. Time will tell, but if the price continues to drop (which is likely at this point), we may start to see unintended effects start to pop up. (A lot of crypto projects "balance" their economy with the idea of the price always going up - but that strategy has already backfired in a number of projects already.) - ETH doesn't support on-chain governance systems (like Tezos - Vitalik was on record being against the idea for a very long time) so there is no way for people to know whether or not the outcomes of DAO or multi-chain votes were done with due-diligence or not. Many businesses and organizations will not participate in these activities until this is fixed. Until then, ETH holders will have to just get used to big decisions behind done behind closed doors. - What happens with the migration of miners in the ecosystem (ETH was the go-to in terms of mining profitability until now) will be interesting to see since this will be major shift in hash-power allocation in the industry as a whole. Bitcoin mining - due to its fixed supply - has a extremely high difficulty curve and very difficult to turn a profit on so most miners are unlikely to go there, either. It may be an opportunity for a lesser known proof-of-work chains to make its move. (Especially "useful" PoW projects like Gridcoin and Golem.) -- All in all, the merge came and went, as with like most technical upgrades in the past, the market didn't seem too concerned -- at least, not yet. Ethereum has the bigger challenge now of addressing use-cases and business concerns in order to re-attract the talent and resources that had fled the scene since its gas-fee problem started becoming all too apparent. Can it stay competitive among the proof-of-stake league that have had more time to refine their process? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
5
$ETHUSDT: Merge incoming, uptrend in the daily$ETHUSDT is interesting, I've been bullish relatively vs Bitcoin for a while, but got out of my latest attempt at riding the pair trade in minor loss of 0.15% yesterday. I had secured some gains since my last publications before, and tried buying back after a dip. See related ideas for the last post. There is a lingering chance of forming a monthly uptrend in $ETHBTC, so I do like the idea of having some $ETHUSD exposure (although smaller than my Bitcoin long given the higher volatility and risk). Fundamental events are interesting, as we approach the timeline for the Merge of the Beacon chain (secured by POS ) and the old chain secured by POW, which will occur at some point between now and the next 9 days give or take. Following this change, issuance of Ethereum will go down dramatically as most people know, and given the changes introduced with EIP1559, could eventually even become deflationary over time as fees are burnt at a greater rate than coins are created. Staking can result in an APR of 4.5-7% potentially, which might make it attractive if inflation rates come down over time. For price to form a long term uptrend, a larger than 10 month bar signal must fire, which isn't yet doable, but depending on how things evolve, could be achievable after October. Just a low probability scenario for now, but given the low risk of buying down here vs potential upside in that scenario, is something that I'd evaluate over time. As more and more data points confirm we are safe to hold, we can let the trade run and capture a big trend landing us huge reward to risk multiples. Hence my interest in being relatively early with buying strength after big declines, when people are not as interested as at the peak euphoria we had in April 2021 or in Dec 2021. Let's see how it evolves, owning $ETH spot with say 5% of your capital might be a good decision here. Be wary of the average price level at which people staked coins a while back, that level can act as supply and slow down or even reverse any advance, if price were to test it next. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Merge to the Splurge - Inflation and Inflated ExpectationsLots of things happening in finance today. US inflation is at 8.3% (higher than expected with no end in sight), which tanked both crypto and the stock market at the same time. Goes to show that there's still a lot of overlap between the two right now. Also coming up is the much anticipated "merge" on Ethereum (going to happen some time this week, according to Vitalik), which will finally migrate their chain from proof-of-work over to proof-of-stake. As interest rates start to get hiked further, crypto coins will likely need some sort of staking mechanism to survive - or at least offer some kind of utility beyond marketing hype. Some things to keep in mind: - The "merge" is not likely to affect ETH's gas prices, since that comes later during the "sharding" phase. Until then, most dApps created on the ETH ecosystem will still largely sit idle/abandoned. - During recessions, cash is king - and the coins that resemble that the most (projects that are used as currency, rather than speculation) is likely to perform better overall. That means coins that leaned into the "store-of-value" idea (and have oversaturated mind-share) may be in big trouble - which includes Bitcoin, as well. - Many Web3 "fintech" startups (including some very big ones) operated under the assumption that BTC/ETH was going to go up forever - some already made headlines this year as they imploded on itself after the downturn, but we're likely to see more of them pop up as we get further into the winter as a whole. - Coins that offer substantial staking rewards (Tezos, Algorand, Cosmos, Solana, TRON, etc.) are outperforming the banks right now by a very large margin, and may be a good position to grow as the banks continue to drag their feet. Holders of coins that were reliant on the "perpetual growth" model in order to offer staking rewards will likely see their rates shrink over time. (If they're desperate enough, it may even go negative. 😨) - ETH2 coins are, by default, "locked up" for an indeterminate length of time - lots of people signed up to be validators during the December launch in 21' but the legality of it will likely be in question. As the market dips further, many will want to liquidate and there will be more pressure put on the ETH team to do so. (If not, a few class-action suits may be in the pipeline.) - What happens to the miners after the "merge"? Up until now, ETH was by far, the most reliable and profitable coin to mine, but that will go away, overnight. Some competitors are trying to use the opportunity to fracture the ETH community by offering their own places to mine, but longer-term, PoW's real value lies in their ability to allocate their processing power to "useful" mining. (e.g. Gridcoin, Golem, etc.) We may start to see a shift in favor of those types of projects after miners start to do more research on their own. Long story short, the projects that were reliant on perpetual fundraising are likely to be out - replaced by projects that have revenue/profits and greater sustainability. The crypto winter may be brutal for some, but the silver lining is that we may finally get to see a crypto ecosystem that prizes utility and sustainability over short-term hype. It's going to be a crazy time either way - good luck, folks.
Long
by RyanTanaka
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% ETH, 30% Cash. * CPI WATCH . The Merge is currently scheduled to launch on Ethereum's Mainnet on 09/14/22 at ~9:40pm . Cryptos, Equities, Futures, VIX, Commodities, US Treasuries and the Euro are all slightly up while DXY is down today. All eyes are on the BLS August CPI report due tomorrow at 830am; July CPI came in lower than expectations and markets rallied, it's reasonable to infer that the same may happen if CPI comes in on par or lower than the 8.1% consensus. The 11th GDPNow Q3 US GDP estimate was 1.3% on 09/09/22 compared to 1.4% on 09/07/22, the next estimate is on 09/15/22. Microstrategy recently (09/09) filed a report disclosing a plan to sell $500m in Class A shares to reinvest it into the purchase of more Bitcoin. Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13 ; The Merge (Ethereum) at ~10pm EST 09/14; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; 12th GDPNow US Q3 US GDP estimate 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently testing $1711 minor support for the third consecutive session. Volume is currently Moderate (high) but has decreased in the past few sessions and is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1528, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 56 as it approaches a test of 55.31 support. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 90 as it approaches a test of 81 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak as it trends up slightly at 22 and approaches a test of 27.77 resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price continues to push higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce off of $1711 minor support then the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $1711 minor support, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1675 as support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$1650 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1625.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETH Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% ETH, 35% Cash. * The Merge is set to launch on Ethereum's Mainnet at around 6pm on 09/14/22 . With the ECB raising central bank rates by 75bps and committing to more rate hikes in the near term, FFR futures traders are still betting on a 75bps rate hike by the Fed on 09/21. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said today that he's leaning more strongly into a 75bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting and that money markets are underestimating prolonged higher rates in 2023. Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned today that fears of a recession in Q1 and Q2 have faded and that the economy can support more significant rate hikes . Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at ~6pm EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending up at $1737 and is still technically testing $1711 minor resistance. Volume is on track to both be High and favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today's session a bit higher and in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1476, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 58 and is still technically testing the descending trendline from February 2020 and 55.31 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 6 as it approaches 27.77 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 14 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to turn $1711 minor resistance to support, the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance . However, if Price breaks back down below $1711 minor resistance, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1667 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1660.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Quietly Breaks above Down Trendline ahead of the MergePrimary Chart: ETH Quietly Breaks above Downward Trendline ahead of the Merge Could ETH be strengthening in the short-term ahead of its long-awaited merge event? After crypto market's devastating bear market this year, including the bankruptcies of some crypto firms, an upgrade to ETH's network is set to occur mid-September 2022. This so-called merge event provides a technical upgrade that enthusiasts claim will make ETH's network more energy efficient and may lay the foundation for reducing the cost of ETH transactions—both of which make it more efficient compared to other networks like BTC. One analyst at Citibank says that the merge may make the network more likely to be adopted by the average person. With the merge date approaching within two weeks, ETH is showing strength, especially when compared to BTC. Consider the following comparison between MATIC, ETH and BTC, posted a couple days ago, where BTC has shown significance weakness relative to both ETH and MATIC. Both ETH and MATIC have held above key Fibonacci support levels whereas BTC has held below the same Fibonacci levels. ETH Breaks above One Key Level, but More Resistance Lies Above Ahead of ETH's merge on September 15, 2022, ETH has quietly broken above a downward trendline. This may have some significance, and supports the idea that the case for the next few weeks is not necessarily as bearish as everyone may expect. Note that this is a short-term view only. The longer-term downtrend and bear market in crypto is very much intact and will take far more than two to three weeks of bullish price action. The Primary Chart above shows the key resistance levels along with the trendline that was recently broken. These levels are labeled on the chart as $1654.31, $1726.04, and $1797.77. Note that $1654.31 as a Fibonacci retracement level also coincides with highs and lows in late August 2022 and early September 2022. This level must be recaptured before any further short-term rally can occur. The next major resistance at $1726.04 is a Fibonacci .50 retracement of the recent decline from the high on August 14. This level aligns with the highs on August 25 as well. The final resistance level is at $1797.77 and is the more important .618 retracement of the recent 2-3 week decline. Supporting the idea that prices may move higher the next couple weeks is the fact that ETH has held support at the .50 retracement of its 3-month summer rally this year. This retracement level equals $1455.78. Supplementary Chart A: ETH's Fibonacci Retracements for the June-August 2022 Rally Comparison to BTC's Recent Price Action BTC has arguably risen above its downward trendline from mid-August 2022 highs. But BTCUSD's breakout looks a lot weaker overall. In general, it is less decisive than ETH's break, probably due to the fact of the upcoming merge for ETH improving its technology. Depending on slight adjustments to BTC's trendline that are within the range of reasonableness, price may still be deemed to be struggling below the trendline or may be barely holding above it. See Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: BTC's Weaker Action at Downward Trendline Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD CME:BTC1! CME:ETH1! BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
Long
by SquishTrade
4
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% ETH, 45% Cash. * The Merge is scheduled for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet at ~1pm EST 09/14/22 . The Sixth Beige Book (of 2022) confirmed what has already been the theme for Fed speakers this quarter ; that we are likely to see slower economic growth in the near to medium term, the labor market is getting tighter, and that even though inflation is showing signs of moderating, it still has a long way to go before we are to see any rate cuts. The 10th GDPNow Q3 US GDP came in today at 1.4% , down from 2.6% on 09/01/22. Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently attempting to form a Morning Doji Star Pattern as it defends $1500 in preparation for The Merge next week; if tomorrow's session PA results in a Bullish Engulfing Candle this would be bullish. I have also revised the uptrend line from 06/18/22 and it now reflects support at ~$1550. Volume is Moderate and is on track to favor buyers if it closes today's session in the green; this would also make three of the past four sessions buyer dominant. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1427 support, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 81 resistance. MACD remains barely bullish for the second consecutive sesision and is currently trending sideways at -26. ADX is currently trending down at 14 as Price is attempting to defend $1500, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to close today's session above ~$1520 and then follow that with a Bullish Engulfing Candle in tomorrow's session, this would be indicative of a bullish continuation that would likely have it retest the 50 MA at ~$1655 as resistance leading up to The Merge. However, if Price breaks down out of the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~$1550) then it will likely retest $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1500.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
2
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% ETH, 48% Cash. * Today in an interview with the Washington Post , Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that inflation hasn't peaked yet and that we still have a ways to go on raising interest rates but that we are "not in a recession right now"; she also mentioned that she expects unemployment to go up and that investments, consumer expenditures and housing numbers are all starting to decline. US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan and is scheduled to meet with human rights activists and politicians tomorrow to the dismay of the PRC and PLA, it has yet to be seen what countermeasures will be taken by China in response but they are likely to be aimed at Taiwan directly. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the trip is provocative and that Russia backs China's view that Taiwan is not independent. As for Ethereum, assuming no setbacks, the Merge is estimated to launch on 09/12/22 . The SEC continues its promise to bring increased regulation to crypto by charging 11 people for running a $300m Ponzi disguised as a decentralized smart contract platform. Earnings this week continue to point to a prolonged economic slowdown but this is hardly a factor as markets continue to look for more signs of a Fed pivot. Key dates remaining this week: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at 645 EST today; Nancy Pelosi speaks to Taiwanese human rights activists and politicians tomorrow (08/03); Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 12pm EST tomorrow (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation at 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently trending down after getting rejected on its initial test of $1711 minor resistance and is currently looking for support at ~$1650 after briefly touching $1550. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to break a four session streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green; this would help confirm that there is enough support for a retest of $1711 minor resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1395, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 60 as it tests the uptrend line from 06/18/22; if it breaks below this, the next support is the descending trendline from February 2020 at 55 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 47 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 100 as it creeps toward a bearish crossover which would happen if it fell below 93; the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 just below 28 resistance, the next support is at -46. ADX is currently trending down at 29 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $1711 minor resistance and potentially go higher to $1941 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1550.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy