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Thesis

$GTLB undervalued, Potential 2X, AI assisted coding tailwind- NASDAQ:GTLB is likely one of the play for Agentic AI. When other companies like Windsurf, Codium, Cursor are in a goldrush. NASDAQ:GTLB is selling shovels. - AI assisted coding is now a theme and is happening at a fast pace. I'm certain NASDAQ:GTLB will be a beneficiary of this trend. - NASDAQ:GTLB has launched various AI based features on its platform which will get adoption and it will be easier for the company to upsell these features. - P/S for NASDAQ:GTLB is depressed. If they even execute on their fiscal goals, re-rating should lift the stock up. - NASDAQ:GTLB should be a 2X in less than 3 years in my opinion given secular shift and macro as a tailwind. Fair value for NASDAQ:GTLB as of now is $68-72
NASDAQ:GTLBLong
by bigbull037
SLC Brazilian Agricultural Producer and Farmland Investor ThesisExecutive Summary We are overweighting SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) over U.S. agribusiness stocks (BG, ADM, MOS, CTVA, FPI) in the current macro environment. The key drivers are: Geopolitical arbitrage (Trump-Russia détente benefits Brazilian exporters more than U.S. firms). FX tailwinds (weaker USD boosts BRL-denominated farmland values). Commodity cycle positioning (SLC’s cotton/soy mix outperforms U.S. corn/ethanol plays). Valuation gap (SLCE3 trades at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. peers). Top Trade: Long SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) I. Macro & Geopolitical Edge: Why Brazil Wins 1. Trump’s Pro-Russia Policy Reshapes Fertilizer & Grain Flows Sanctions Relief: Russian potash/phosphate exports resume → BrasilAgro (AGRO3) and SLC benefit from 25-30% lower input costs (U.S. farmers already hedged). U.S. Grain Export Risk: If Trump pushes Ukraine grain deals, ADM/BG lose pricing power in EU/Asia markets. 2. USD Weakness Favors BRL-Linked Assets Fed Cuts + Trump’s Dollar Policy: BRL appreciation (R$4.60/USD by 2026E) boosts: SLC’s USD-linked revenue (68% of sales). Land appraisals (Brazilian farmland up 18% CAGR in USD terms). U.S. Companies Hurt: ADM/BG’s LatAm earnings face translation drag. 3. BRICS Neutrality vs. U.S.-China Decoupling Brazil remains trusted supplier to both China and EU (no trade wars). U.S. agribusiness (ADM/BG) exposed to: China soy tariffs (if Trump escalates). EU carbon taxes (ADM’s ethanol margins at risk). II. Company-Specific Advantages: SLC vs. U.S. Peers A. SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) – The Optimal Play Metric SLC Agrícola U.S. Peers (ADM/BG/MOS) P/E (2025E) 9.1x 12-18x EBITDA Margin 38% (2025E) 8-15% FX Benefit BRL appreciation USD translation drag Geopolitical Shield Neutral (BRICS) Exposed to U.S.-China wars Key Catalysts: Cotton Supercycle: Trump’s EU-China trade war could spike prices (SLC has 40% exposure). Hidden Water Rights: 120k hectares of irrigated land (R$3.2B unreported NAV). Ferrogrão Railway Completion (2026): Cuts logistics costs by 18%. B. U.S. Agribusiness: Relative Weaknesses Stock Key Risk Mitigation ADM Ethanol mandate cuts (Biden hangover) Divesting plants BG Brazilian tax case (R$4.5B liability) Land asset cover MOS Saudi JV delays (CFIUS scrutiny) Fertilizer optionality CTVA Patent cliff (2027+) M&A speculation FPI U.S. farmland cap rate compression Rent escalators III. Conclusion: Why SLC Over U.S. Peers? Geopolitical Arbitrage: Brazil avoids U.S.-China/EU trade wars. FX Leverage: BRL appreciation boosts USD earnings + land values. Commodity Mix: Cotton/soy > corn/ethanol in Trump’s policy regime. Valuation: SLCE3 at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. stocks.
BMFBOVESPA:SLCE3Long
by beckett_07
ADA USDT thesis with RAG AI by Titan_KarmaIntraday Scalping Strategy Analysis for Cardano (ADA): Evaluating Long Positions Amid Current Market Conditions Abstract: This thesis examines the viability of initiating a long position in Cardano (ADA) based on current market conditions, using an intraday scalping strategy. The analysis leverages a combination of technical indicators, real-time data, and sentiment analysis to identify optimal entry points and manage risk effectively. The findings are grounded in a comprehensive evaluation of the market's bullish momentum, positive sentiment, and recent trading patterns, with an 85% confidence level supporting the trade recommendation to initiate a LONG position. 1. Introduction This thesis aims to explore the application of intraday scalping strategies to ADA, specifically under current bullish market conditions. With Cardano's price reaching $0.4406 and a significant surge in trading volume (266.96 million), there are indications of continued upward momentum. However, caution is warranted due to overbought technical indicators. This study identifies strategic entry and exit points to optimize returns while minimizing risk. 2. Background on Cardano (ADA) and Scalping Strategy Cardano Overview: A brief overview of Cardano, its role in the blockchain ecosystem, and the factors driving its adoption. Intraday Scalping Strategy: Definition and explanation of scalping, a high-frequency trading strategy that involves capitalizing on small price movements throughout the day. This strategy is particularly effective in moderately volatile markets like ADA. 3. Data Sources and Market Analysis Coinglass Data: Open interest remains healthy, with a favorable funding rate indicating market participants are predominantly taking long positions. The absence of significant liquidations suggests a stable trading environment. Binance Order Book Analysis: The presence of substantial buy walls at $0.4350 suggests strong support, which could act as a buffer if a retracement occurs. The moderate volatility index indicates a conducive environment for scalping. CoinMarketCap Metrics: A robust liquidity score and stable market cap reflect sustained investor interest, with candlestick patterns pointing toward a bullish continuation. Sentiment Analysis (Augmento and CryptoCompare): Predominantly positive sentiment among traders, driven by recent whale activity and institutional interest, reinforces confidence in ADA's short-term bullish outlook. 4. Technical Analysis of Current Market Conditions Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions. Historically, this level suggests a potential for short-term pullbacks. Stochastic Oscillator: High Stochastic readings align with overbought conditions, advising caution for new entries until a retracement is observed. Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages: The price is near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting potential resistance, while the price remains above the 50-period moving average, indicating bullish momentum. MACD: A recent bullish crossover on the MACD supports the continuation of an upward trend, aligning with the current market sentiment. 5. Trade Recommendation and Strategy Position: Open a LONG position if the price retraces to the support level of $0.4350. Entry Criteria: Timeframe: 15-minute intervals to capitalize on intraday movements. Indicators: RSI above 50, MACD bullish crossover, price near the middle Bollinger Band, and moderate volatility. Stochastic Oscillator: Monitoring overbought conditions to identify optimal entry points after a pullback. Exit Strategy: Take Profit: Target set at $0.4500 to align with the next resistance level. Stop-Loss: Set at $0.4300 to mitigate downside risk. Exit Point: Recommended exit around $0.4450 to secure gains while avoiding potential pullbacks. Confidence Level: 85% 6. Risk Management and Market Dynamics Support and Resistance Levels: The $0.4350 level serves as a key support zone. A break below this level could signal a shift in sentiment and invalidate the long trade setup. Volatility and Market Sentiment: Given moderate volatility and high bullish sentiment, traders should remain agile, adapting quickly to changing conditions. Overbought indicators suggest monitoring for potential pullbacks before entering new positions. Correlation with Broader Market Trends: ADA’s price movement remains correlated with Bitcoin (BTC), which also shows bullish signals. Any significant shifts in BTC’s performance could impact ADA’s trajectory. 7. Conclusion The current technical and sentiment indicators provide a favorable setup for initiating a long position in Cardano (ADA). However, the overbought conditions identified by RSI and Stochastic indicators warrant caution. The recommendation is to wait for a retracement to the support level of $0.4350 before entering a long position. The exit strategy, stop-loss settings, and profit targets are designed to optimize returns while managing risk effectively. 8. Future Research Further research could explore the impact of macroeconomic factors on ADA’s price, the influence of whale activity on market sentiment, and a comparative analysis of ADA’s performance relative to other Layer-1 blockchain projects. Additionally, studying the correlation between ADA’s market movements and those of Bitcoin could yield insights for improved predictive models. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis tailored for traders leveraging intraday scalping strategies, focusing on optimizing entry and exit points in a moderately bullish market environment.
Long
by titankarma
#ES Futures 06.08.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday I was short biased and thought we will have enough supply to flush Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 but I did mention that if we do no break support and reach next level down then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25, because of the short bias I did not think we will get back to Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and extend to next level up but I have been telling myself that we are in this 4170-4070 range since last week and will be that way until we see clear moves out with continuation. So far we are tightening up the range/coiling up looks like for next move out, we are getting lower highs and higher lows with tighter ranges since 27th which tells me we are just spending time cleaning up still and filling orders. Today we have our inventory long above our Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 but also short from yesterdays close. Tricky spot here, we can see another day of tighter range if we do it should be between 4157 area below our 4168-4162.25 level and around our 4103.75-4099.75 area maybe 4090ish. Of course we watch level by level for order flow at those levels to see if we have enough to break and keep going or not so have to keep all possibilities open. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 can give us 4168-4162.25 that is our T+2 high and if we break it and extend then can see more buy ins and upper levels are 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance at 4020-4214.75 but T+2 high is important reference that must break in order to see continuation up. On the downside if we get under 4143.75-4137.50 then we can see 4123.75-4119.25 and 4103.25-4099.75 which is also our T+2 Low area that we will need to see break in order to get a chance at Key Support of 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels, with T+2 High and T+2 Low being at the very spots we think that we might stall and tighten is another reason I think we might have a smaller range day again and tighten up more. Of any of those references break with volume then its a good sign for continuation because we have a week worth of inventory built up already, but might not happen until Thursday/Friday as we said we don't have any market moving events till then. Days like last few weeks its very important to not over trade and manage expectations in the trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 5.17.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYesterday we had a balance day in our 4030.75-3976.50 range as were thinking it would be, in the Globex session we failed to go lower and did not even touch our 3994.50-3988.75 level which was a sign that we are out of supply. Once we got to our Key Resistance and todays T+2 high (Fridays High) we consolidated a bit and broke out, leaving single prints behind which is a short position/buyers. We reached our next Key Resistance at 4084.50-4077.25 where we found sellers and currently distributing product between that and the lower level of 4061.50-4056.50. Today we have to keep in mind that we have single prints below us where we can expect buyers to be active if we get into that area, seeing how many of them we can fill would be the tell of how much supply we have, being above T+2 with a gap again can force some buy ins today but will it be enough for us to extend higher. On the downside we have 4061.50-4056.50, 4046-4042.25 which is our first single print area where we can see buyers active, ideally if we are going to head higher we will not break both of those levels but if we do we have our gap fill of T+2 high at 4036 and Key support at 4030.75-4025.25. On the upside if we cant fill the singles and that gap to T+2 then we can rotate higher, our Key Resistance for now is 4084.50-4077.25 if that goes our upper levels are 4103.25-4099.75, 4123.75-4119.25 where we should see some sellers on the first test and our next Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 where we should see a good sell response if we get there. I will be looking for long trades from single print areas and lower levels or when we get through the Key Resistance. Powell speaks at 2 so might be an interesting day, patience is KEY.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
!ES_F 2.02.22 Overview and levels to watchSlow grinding globex action leaves us with inventory 100% long today. What can we see today in RTH? On a bigger time frame we flushed down our inventory over 4620 and now we are almost back to the location of the break down on Jan 18. Question is did we really clean up all that trapped supply in such a short time, have no more supply for sale and clear to go up or will we find a seller today at the levels we did before since not everyone sells at the same time. Our levels to watch for the day are 4570-4562.50 as PM support if we break and hold below that is our first signs of weakness under there we have 4551.25-4548.75, 4536.75-4532.50 and our Key intraday support at 4524.25-4519 which if broken then this whole move was just short covering and we can see more downside. On the upside we have 4589.50-4584.75, 4603.25-4598.75 and our Key resistance at 4623.25-4614.50 we do expect sellers there. We have made some big moves last few weeks and the action has slowed down to a grind so it will be tricky to trade and have to manage expectations. If we do break and hold over our key resistance that would be a bullish confirm and we can see higher levels of 4636.50-4632.25 and 4650.50-4646.25 where we do expect to see sellers.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES Monday 1.24 Overview and Levels to watchON Our level of 4420 worked well. We got over the level and could not get any upside which means we just sold all the inventory that we bought under 4400. It took a long time for people to realize they are trapped and start selling out which is what we are seeing now. We had a small bounce close to our 4355 level but had enough supply to break in it. Question today is will we see continued weakness? Looks like we will be opening outside of Fridays range and under T+2 so we can expect some margin call selling today. Always wait for inventory to get too long or too short around the level you are watching for a better trade, dont just jump in on first test. Let the market tell us where we going. Levels to watch today 4330 - 4300 - 4270 to the downside and 4355 - 4400 - 4420 to the upside.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Bitcoin and the Infamous Mercury RetrogradeMost people don't know this about me, (and 100% won't care) but I love astrology. The stars, the unknown, the mystery, all shrouded in darkness. I have questions and nobody has the answers. Probably part of the allure, I'd imagine. I also love Technical Analysis. I don't consider myself amazing by any stretch but I'd like to think I'm a level above wasting anyone's time. Data. Numbers. Math. Patterns. Time. Theory... I love em all. This analysis will focus on a period of time that generally happens 3 but sometimes 4 times a year and it has to do with the planet Mercury. Very quickly, Mercury Retrograde is simply when Mercury passes Earth on its way around the Sun. Because Mercury has an inner track and can complete an orbit in around 88 days, there will be times when Mercury cruises right by Earth. From our view on Earth, it would almost appear as if Mercury is moving backwards.

 Don’t take my word for it, look it up yourself if you’re interested but they say that Mercury Retrograde leads to a lot of negative action, specifically regarding expression, communication, technology and other misfortunes including financial disruptions. It should be said that there are also two weeks before Retrograde and two weeks after Retrograde, give or take, and these are Shadow periods. I’m not going into detail about those as this intro is already far too long. So, what better way to see what type of affect Mercury Retrograde has on trading Bitcoin then looking at the chart, plotting the retrograde periods and taking a few simple measurements? I started with 2016 as this should give us enough data to get started with. 2016 had 4 Periods but the last one started in 2016 and ended in 2017. 2016: January 5 – January 25, 2016 April 28 – May 22, 2016 August 30 – September 22, 2016 Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 Below you will see a chart with the 4 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss. 2017: Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 April 9 – May 3, 2017 August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 December 3 – December 22, 2017 Below you will see a chart with the 4 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss. 2018: March 22 – April 15, 2018 July 26 – August 18, 2018 November 16 – December 6 Below you will see a chart with the 3 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss. 2019: March 5 – 28, 2019 July 7 – 31, 2019 October 31 – November 20, 2019 Below you will see a chart with the 3 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss. So, obviously we got some results that seem to be all over the place. A 28% Gain in 2017 but a 38% loss in 2018. Surely we can find a way to make more sense out of this. Yes, we will add a moving average and then see if we make gains while in up-trending markets and losses while in downtrending markets to give confluence to the idea that maybe Mercury Retrograde goes with the trend. Below you will see a 200 Simple Moving Average on the Daily chart for overall trend Bias. Price above the 200 = Uptrend Price below the 200 = Downtrend The idea here was to see if the Mercury Retrograde followed the overall trend. As we can see, it's not perfect. We can see trend following more often then it doesn't but no concrete conclusion can be derived from the 200 DMA. The last one is Neutral because Retrograde starts above the 200 DMA and ends Below the 200 DMA. This was the longest part of the thesis. I tried a few dozen indicators to see if there was any type of “signal” prior to the Retrograde that could give a good leading indication. Unfortunately, from the Aroon to the Whadda I just could not find something that was 100%. It always came down to the two in 2016 and that rise in 2019. And I really tried a lot. MACD, OBV, MFI, RSI, Stoch, Ichi, even faster MA/EMAs, a few oddball indicators, momentum, etc… But then it dawned on me. Retrograde. Moon Phases. Huh… Let’s See New Moon in the Cycle: 2016: January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 - Up 2017: Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT April 9 – May 3, 2017 - Up August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - Up December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up 2018: March 22 – April 15, 2018 – No New Moon = DOWN July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down November 16 – December 6 – No New Moon = DOWN 2019: March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up July 7 – 31, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN October 31 – November 20, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN So, this is pretty interesting. Not perfect but interesting. When there is No New Moon Present in the Retrograde Cycle - Price ALWAYS declines. When there is a New Moon present we get 6 up and 3 down. Need to investigate further. Full Moon in the Cycle: 2016: January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 – No Full Moon = UP 2017: Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT April 9 – May 3, 2017 – Up August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - No Full Moon = UP December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up 2018: March 22 – April 15, 2018 - Down July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down November 16 – December 6 - Down 2019: March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up July 7 – 31, 2019 - Down October 31 – November 20, 2019 - Down Another very interesting piece of information. 
When No FULL MOON is present in the cycle, Price goes up. 
In the presence of a Full Moon, price declined 7 to 4. Again, not really great findings here. The more interesting is definitely the lack of presence from a Full Moon. Both a New and a Full Moon in the Cycle: 2016: January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 – No Full Moon = UP 2017: Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT April 9 – May 3, 2017 – Up August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - No Full Moon = UP December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up 2018: March 22 – April 15, 2018 – No New Moon = DOWN July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down November 16 – December 6 – No New Moon = DOWN 2019: March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up July 7 – 31, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN October 31 – November 20, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN When we have both a New Moon and a Full Moon, the results are just about Random. 4 Up and 3 Down. I even checked the placement of which moon came first but again, nothing consistent from the 7 Cycles left to look at. Here is what we do have.

 No New Moon = Price goes down 4 for 4 Cycles No Full Moon = Price goes up 2 for 2 Cycles The presence of Both a New Moon and Full Moon = Random 4 Up and 3 Down The question then becomes, what does this Cycle have or better yet… Not Have. And therein lies an unforeseen problem. There is a New Moon and on the very last day of the cycle, there is a Full Moon. Now, depending on where you are in the world, will the Full Moon count when the trading ends on March 9th, 2020 at 00:00 UTC? I suppose that is up to you to decide. If it was a New Moon only, then 2 out of 2 times in the past we had price go up. Just to really jab the knife in a little deeper… The Full Moon on March 9th, the last day of the upcoming Mercury Retrograde cycle, is a SUPER FULL MOON. It’s considered a SUPERMOON when it is at its closest to EARTH so it will look Bigger and Brighter. There will only be one other Super Full Moon in 2020 it will be April 7th. Stats: 2016: January 5 – January 25, 2016 20 Days -8.60% Loss of $37.10 April 28 – May 22, 2016 24 Days -191% Loss of $8.50 August 30 – September 22, 2016 23 Days 3.75% Gain of $21.50 Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 20 Days 15.87% Gain of $125.60 2017: Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 ---Same as above--- April 9 – May 3, 2017 24 Days 28.00% Gain of $331.10 August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 24 Days 21.65% Gain of $794.40 December 3 – December 22, 2017 19 Days 27.27% Gain of $2973.10 2018: March 22 – April 15, 2018 24 Days -5.81% Loss of $515.70 July 26 – August 18, 2018 23 Days -21.61% Loss of $1764.70 November 16 – December 6 20 Days -38.37% Loss of $2139.00 2019: March 5 – 28, 2019 23 Days 8.48% Gain of $313.80 July 7 – 31, 2019 24 Days -10.18% Loss of $1144.10 October 31 – November 20, 2019 20 Days -11.79% Loss of $1080.80 Total UP = 6 Periods Total Down = 7 Periods Average Gain when up = 17.50% Average Loss when down = -14.03%
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by ChingasX
16
PLTR: Example of how to do a Bullish Thesis.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today, do a complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA), and I'll share with you my bullish thesis on it. First, in the 1h chart, we see a strong bull trend, and PLTR is just doing higher highs/lows without a rest. The 21 ema is pointing up, and there’s nothing indicating that it’ll drop. Only if we lose the purple trendline in the 1h chart we might see a decent pullback in the daily chart, but for now, we have no bearish confirmation, and the trend is 100% bullish. In the 1h chart, it seems we have a Cup & Handle chart pattern, and the target of this pattern is the $ 27.47. Even if PLTR does a pullback in the daily chart, let’s say, to its 21 ema, the trend would still be bullish in the mid-term, and wouldn’t change our bullish thesis. The $ 27.47 is another key point. It is not just the target of this Cup & Handle, but it is a pivot point in the weekly chart : If PLTR defeats the $ 27.47, there is no other meaningful long-term resistance other than the $ 45 . What’s more, the chances of a breakout are very high, and this is evidenced by the volume , which has been increasing a lot in the past few weeks. We have more targets to work with in the mid-term, like a gap at $31.34, but if you aim for the long-run, PLTR is a fantastic stock to own, given all the patterns it has been doing. And this is how we build our thesis, based on technical analysis (or fundamentals), not on what we "think", "believe" or "guess". Nobody else's opinion matters, not even mine. Only the charts matter. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if it helped! Have a good weekend!
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
8
Generational top on $QQQ. Exit all markets.Thesis: Covid brought tons of money printing and greatly reduced purchasing power of consumers. Many retail consumers became infatuated with high stock prices and started investing their Biden bucks and are now going to be left holding the bag. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has gone rampant this year much like right before the 2000 recession. Crypto markets turbo nuking -50%+ last month and bitcoin forming a similar ascending wedge as the $QQQ is the top signal for all markets. Just like how the crash of 2000 was led by the nasdaq crashing weeks before SPX and Russel 2000 started selling off; crypto of 2021 is analogous to the nasdaq of 2000. This is a thesis driven and concentrate bet. Stop loss above the ascending wedge, profit-taking target: record-breaking sell offs.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RektBTC
1
Thesis on an Empirical Study of Elliot Wave AnalysisElliot Waves - A Market Aesthetic An Emergent Feature of Equity Markets and Market Psychology Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliot in the 1930s, the Elliot wave principle became a tool for technical analysis used to chart and forecast financial market cycles by identifying extremes in investor psychology and other factors. The Elliot wave principle is a concept built upon a foundation of Fibonacci ratios and market sentiment. Fibonacci ratios are a fundamental tool in most of today’s traders' technical analysis tool belt. The numbers derived from the Fibonacci sequence can be divided to create the mathematical product that is commonly referred to as the golden-ratio that plays a significant role in the emerging structures and patterns attributed to equities markets. Why is this? The volatility and chaos are observed and experienced by traders involved with the foreign exchange, and that chaos is a result of the trillions of dollars that is moved within the currency market. Those same trillions of dollars also generate structure within the system and is a concept that can be further illustrated by law of large numbers. The law of large numbers is central in understanding mathematical concepts such as probability theory and thermodynamics, connecting the natural world to the man-made world of financial markets within a gradient between two vectors from a prior to a posteriori. A priori is knowledge that is synthesized independent from experience. It is an abstract idealism studied within the domain metaphysics. The study of mathematics is a relevant example of a priori knowledge that being governed by axioms rooted in the study of logic removed from reality. A posteriori is experiential knowledge and is thus empirical. What's up with the law of large numbers? The concept of the law of large numbers can be summarized as such; an increased frequency of observable values over time should be equivalent to the expected value. We can expect the average over time to equivalent the an expected value. We can make a relational inference from the concept of expected value to the "fair-value" of an asset, such as a currency pair. This will be significant in order-flow analysis or other types of volume trading techniques. When a technical indicator, such as the fixed range volume profile, is applied to a chart, we generate a distribution curve of significant volumes from a selected range (sometimes we generate multiple distributions from a single range). This feature also generates a point-of-control, which is the most significantly traded price level, the expected value in our law of large numbers generated from our observable sample-size derived from our selected range. In essence, the market will shift in attempt to stabilize at equilibrium or move towards (regress) to the point-of-control (to the mean). Volume (or market) profile is an x-axis indicator, meaning that it quantifies independent variables. Examples of independent variables in the foreign exchange market are as such; human behavior and economics and political events. The price of a currency pair is recorded and plotted on the y-axis. The resulting price is a dependent variable. This means that price is "dependent" or influenced by the independent variables mentioned from our x-axis. Trade volume is significant to quantify and observe due to traders executing trades, thus acting on the with dynamic forces of the a market that is being governed by the laws supply and demand (which is central to order-flow analysis and volume trading techniques). Market liquidity is measurement of the speed at which price changes or the frequency at which a currency is pair is exchanged over time. The relationship between volume and liquidity is direct. The liquidity of the market also affects the depth of the market influencing price action. Price action analysis is a type of technical analysis that attempts to reveal market sentiment by analyzing "naked indicators" or candle-sticks (OHLC by period of time) and trends. X-axis forces are revealed by the formation of candlesticks making price action the basis of all technical analysis. What does this have to do with thermodynamics? This is the domain of finance and economics, not science! Thermodynamics is a branch of physics that attempts to answer how energy moves and achieves equilibrium within a system. We can borrow from the lexicon of thermodynamics and apply it to the market in our exhibition, EURUSD. The second law of thermodynamics describes, in summary, how states of matter and energy transition from order to disorder in a system (the delta value of entropy in a system). Entropy is the measurement of chaos in a system. In chemistry, we learn that entropy is a measurement of the energy potential generated by various chemical species in a system. New chemical species emerge when catalyzed by an event resulting in a rapid rate of entropy. Initially, this results in a system of disorder and over time moving to a system of order meeting energy equilibrium resulting in chemical species with new chemical bonds. Other ways to describe this event using our new mixed glossary of terminology borrowed from different domains of knowledge would be; the system had moved from a state of high (or low) entropy and met equilibrium, the average observable energy potential is at or near the expected value, or the energy potential within the system had regressed to the mean. In the exhibition above (EURUSD), we ranged the fixed-range volume profile indicator on EURUSD to our mapped Elliot wave to provide empirical proof that Elliot waves are a natural phenomena of human emotion on equity markets. The point-of-control is the red-line projecting from the distribution curve and is the level at which most of the trading volume takes place. This is comparable to a support/resistance zones, a psychological trading concept. Our range has generated a single distribution curve from the volume profile indicator. The highlighted area is our value-area (70% distribution) and is the area of value with the most trading significance. It is notable that wave ((ii)) (on the minute wave), price had retraced to the 0.5 fib level (although not a traditional fib ratio, it is acceptable within the guidelines of the Elliot wave principle). The fixed range volume profile indicator revealed a significant shift in supply that moved the pair into a retracement resulting in wave ((i)) before exhausting the sellers momentum to create wave ((ii)). The less opaque areas of the volume distribution are levels where we see a shift left on the supply curve (reduced supply of contracts around the point-of-control) resulting in the higher demand to drive EURUSD from wave ((ii)) to the long wave ((iii)). This less opaque area of volume distribution are where the price tends "run away” because of the lack of either supply or demand in the market that had resulted in the impulse wave ((iii)), which is the always the largest move in an Elliot wave structure. The consolidation of volume and price that is revealed by the volume profile indicator at wave ((ii)) is significant as it proves wave 3 is a result of exhausted trading “pressure.” It also is interesting to note that our point-of-control also sits atop wave (v) concluding an impulse drive in the minuette cycle, resulting in a complex wave ((iii)) pattern and thus providing further confirmation of a strong support/resistance level. Conclusion Much like how the natural world is in flux, so too are our financial markets. Emotional agents create conditions of volatility in the fx market. The laws of supply and demand move price in an ebb and flow across time in an attempt to find market equilibrium at the expected value, all while the lattice structures emerge composing the Elliot waves that provides structure and order to a seemingly orderless system. Fibonacci ratios are the “atomos” revealing price patterns and guidance for these waves to form, similar to how the recurring patterns found in nature reveal the Fibonacci sequence. A concept rooted in aesthetics, axiology, and market behavior, Elliot waves are a product of emergence.
by OrangeTrader93
The 350 Daily Simple Moving Average Support TheoryMoving Averages have long interested me. The idea of a dynamic support and resistance level with the ladder up and ladder down effect during new trends has been a fantastic thing to take notice of. That brings us to the 350 Daily Simple Moving Average because it is not something we come across all the time but rather only a few times here and there over the course of many, many years. Looking at the life of the STAMP chart which goes back to 2011 we can count the interactions on two hands. The Major interest here for me is in the approach of the 350 DMA after posting a local Swing High. This has only happened three times with the current one happening now as the 3rd time. What got my attention was the bounce and how sloppy the 350 DMA was acting as Support. The bounces from the 350 are between the 236 and the 382 of the local move while the initial push lower was between at 113 and a 127 extension of the retrace. For the first time - it looks like this. Now things get a little more interesting when we add in the 200 DMA as a bounce level of Resistance... Like This. Again, the 350 DMA Support is Sloppy and by no means a beautiful level but rather a zone and in retrospect, the reversal of a local drop for a decent bounce. The 200 DMA acted as resistance with confluence from the 382 retrace from the 1163 high to the 339 low. This did go on to paint a lower low when this move finished... Once again we see the drive down to the 350 DMA with a fairly sloppy support. From there we get a decent bounce just beyond the 236 retrace from the 19,666 high to the 6427 low. The confluence here again was the resistance provided by the 200 DMA. After the bounce we head south and land between the 113 and the 127 extension from the bounce. Again, like before, this went on to paint a lower low... That brings us to our current approach. I will admit that there is very little history and data to support such a theory but that is why a theory is a theory and not a fact or a rule. Given the 350 DMA interaction, the distance to the 200 DMA and the overwhelming confluence near the 382 fib level that we didn't even get into in this theory but are absolutely out there, I feel this has potential. Maybe not for every trader but possibly just another way to look at current price action and see a reason for further downside as well as a bump in-between. I am also very aware that the 200 DMA will move and that will affect future resistance levels as well as the retrace top, if achieved will effect the 113/127 extension levels. unfortunately, those things can only be planned for after future events take place. So what I did for the extension was give a low side 236 bounce and a separate high side 382 bounce. This will just leave a range of possibilities if this does indeed move in the right direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ChingasX
1
Trump thinks his daughter is HOT, and I am SHORT on SPX Dar_klords Daily Update Ticker: SPX Rating: Sell Short Driver 1: The white dotted lines on the chart represent the two current major levels of resistance. Both of which are supported by a double bottom. Driver 2: The pink line shows us another double top, also a bearish signal. Driver 3: The green line shows us a critical point in the True Strength Indicator. I would make the argument that a move breaking that green line on the downside could send the index Driver 4: The solid white lines show us where a descending triangle is printed. A break resistance in solid white would most definitely lead to the formation of a cup to the last and largest driver Driver 5: Large cup and handle on the downside. If a handle prints as a result of a break on the descending triangle we will most definitely see new lows. Why is this a critical point in the market? Well first off the PE 10 (Market multiple price to earnings ratio) is trading at around 32. This shows us that the market is overvalued equities. In fact the last time we saw market multiples of this level was around 1995 during the dot com bubble. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has overheated the equity's market through over optimistic investor sentiment, share buybacks, and ultimately tax deduction reliant balance sheets. That’s all for now, I will update throughout the day for you plebeians This baby's going down -Dar_klord P.S suck my balls SPX
SP:SPXShort
by I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I