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Thestrat

2/03/2025 Weekly Analysis + WatchlistSPY - Failed 2U week after going outside month the week before. Not super shocking, but now we sit in an interesting spot. The new month will open inside bar and has to either take out previous month highs (Which is ATH) or Jan Lows. Seeing that the range is pretty wide for downside, It will take less effort to make new ATH. Not that it means a whole lot, but that is something to note. Next, we see the week closed failed 2D, but is pretty much slapped right in the middle of last weeks range, so it will take an equal amount of effort to make a HH or LL. Finally, from a daily perspective we have a large failed 2U with slight PMG to the downside. We are definitely primed for a sharp corrective move Monday, but of course anything can happen, we are just much closer to seeing the bear scenario than bull. In my mind, the ideal weekly scenario is this: Monday sees sharp corrective move, taking out the PMG guys, then the rest of the week climbs, triggering the weekly 2-2 Rev, which then ideally sends us into ATH once more before seeing either BF expansion on the Month (since we would go 3-2U.), or seeing us start to come back through last months range for a larger corrective move. In the pure bear scenario, we trigger the daily reversal, head down to weekly 2-2 cont. trigger, then see if we can make progress down back through a few daily gaps, ultimately targeting prev month low for the 3-2D M. Given that we are going into a new monthly open after going 3, we could very easily just chop and go nowhere for the week seeing as we may just remain inside week with the month being inside to start out before possibly seeing control more clearly dictated in the 2nd/3rd week of Feb. Main advice regardless is to trade things that are moving early on like gappers, and anything where the month goes 2U or 2D in the first week. Avoid inside bars if possible and trade light! Main setups for the week: Bull: GE - Inside D and W ORCL - Hammer W to head back through D gap. Cautious with this one MRVL - Weekly 2-2U. Daily gap fill to the upside after giant gap down to exhaustion risk Bear: BA - Shooter 3-2D weekly. Bear Revstrat daily. Daily BF looks solid. MSFT - MoMo Shooter M, 3-2D W, Daily 2-1-2D. Check daily BF. Still has magnitude after massive ER drop VZ - Weekly 2-2D, Daily shooter 2-1-2D, FTFC Red. Check daily BF Neutral: RKLB - Inside week. Nuclear Green FTFC and super crazy ATR lately
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
Forex Market AnalysisUSD with a failed 2D week to go 2-2 rev to the upside and take out pivot highs. This occurs at the same time as the EURO looking weak with the most interesting of the 3 charts. EURO with the potential 2-1-2D week after clearing Motherbar highs two weeks ago and now giving us the actionable signal back through to motherbar lows. Price was stuck in the motherbar range for 8 weeks before taking out highs. Now looking to make a sharp move back through that motherbar range to the lows. YEN with the successful 2-2 rev week that has given us a clear BF if we were to drop to the daily TF. YEN with TFC supporting more upside, and being closer to 2-2 continuation rather than 2-2 rev. Not as interesting as USD and EURO at the moment, but definitely will be noted as I am mainly watching anything EUR/X for downside, and USD/X for upside. Side note: GBP and AUD both bearish weekly's but not as interesting as other currencies right now. Main pairs to watch this week : Bull: USD/JPY- (Daily PMG to the upside could be a huge early week mover) USD/CAD - Daily hammer 2-2 for BF expansion Bear: EUR/USD (2-2 Week, Gorgeous weekly BF) GBP/USD - Weekly 2-2 to the downside. Larger ATR than most others AUD/HKD - shooter 2-2 Daily, Inside week. Check the Daily BF (Wow) Neutral: AUD/CAD - 3-1 Daily and inside week
PEPPERSTONE:EURX
by Alanger17
12/30 Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Short week from Xmas leaves us with an inside weekly setup to start the new year. The way 2-1-X and 3-1-X setups (Inside bar setups) work, is they either confirm what happened previously, or negate it. In this specific scenario on the weekly, we have a large red week of selling (2D, followed by a pretty neutral inside week (1). Next week either goes 2D, confirming the selling from the previous week and therefore showing evidence of continuation lower, or we negate that selling by making a higher high (2U) and looking to reclaim the highs from the big red week from when FOMC occurred. We can't predict which way the next week will go, but we can at the very least imagine what has to occur for both bull and bear scenarios to be successful. Simply put, above last weeks high means we are targeting the weekly high from the week prior to last week. Below last weeks low means we are targeting the weekly low from the week prior to last week. Break either side and come back into last weeks range means we are failing to confirm/negate what the signal is indicating, and then we target the other side. EX: Monday pokes above last weeks high but closes red. We then would look to engulf the week and create a 1-3 combo on the weekly. This week should be similar to last week, meaning it may be tougher to trade since we have a few negative considerations and less ideal conditions to trade. Considerations for the upcoming week: For starters, we have another short week with new years day on Wednesday being a full day closure for the markets. Short week means less time for weekly candles to form, and therefore, likely chance of less volume to occur compared to normal weeks. Secondly, its the new year! This means we see all new candles on every timeframe up to the yearly chart. So, new Year, Quarter, Month, Week, Day, Hour, etc. Because of this, we will see issues with decoupling. This means the Year, Quarter, and Month will all be the same exact candle until we get to the second month and quarter of the year. Because the week starts in 2024 and ends in 2025, the week will be decoupled, but the M, Q and Y will not. Again, not the biggest issues ever, but just considerations to have in mind. Weekly Watchlist: (Side Note: I have added all of my charts for individual tickers mentioned for further clarity on what I am seeing with these setups) Bullish: NASDAQ:MRVL - 3-1-2U W to confirm bright green M, Y NASDAQ:AVGO - 2-1-2U W to confirm FTFC Up. Relative strength. 4HR 2-1-2U and 1HR 3-2U for Intraday entries Monday Bearish: NASDAQ:SMCI - Shooter 2U W to confirm failed 2U month. Super nice Daily BF NYSE:AI - 2-1-2D W to trigger Shooter failed 2U M. Gorgeous monthly Broadening Formation. NASDAQ:MSTR - 3-1-2D W. BTC with a weak setup on the major TFs. Looking to capitalize through MSTR and other names in that space NYSE:BRK.B - Shooter 3 D. Weekly 2-2U too weak to hit magnitude last week. Month is 3-1 but big red currently. May be early on this but with similar setups in the Financial industry, this is one I want to watch. NASDAQ:AMD - Hammer revstrat D to trigger Weekly 2-1-2U at Monthly Exhaustion level. Yearly has a nasty bearish revstrat setup forming, but if we are just daytrading this, it looks good for an exhaustion play intraweek. Otherwise will be watching all next year for that Y revstrat to play out Neutral: NYSE:SHOP - 3-1 W. Month Failing 2U. NASDAQ:NVDA : Currently Shooter 2U W. Normally this is just bearish, but the 2W chart can go hammer 1-2-2U, and M is 2D but close to open meaning it is failing that downside signal. I could see this going either way, but its such an interesting setup that I wanted to include it.
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
#TheStrat Weekly/Monthly Setups For DecemberSPY - Closed previous D/W/M close to HOD after making new ATH, so the D/W/M all finished bright green. No evidence of sellers anywhere since every TF above the 60 is currently green. 60 closed slight green, but this can easily be justified as eod corrective activity since all 60 min candles before the last one of the day were green, and every TF above the 60 is green. Going into the new week and month, we can expect buying to continue until we see a lower low on the D, but the real sign of buyers vanishing / sellers gaining control for me will be a Lower Low on the weekly. Main Monthly Setups To Watch: Bullish : DKNG - 1-2-2 Q revstrat in force, 1-3 M, 2-1 W PM - Hammer 3-1 M BA - Counter Hammer Failed 2D M MRK - Hammer M at Downside Exhaustion Level Bearish: MU - Shooter 1-3 M, Failed 2U W ZIM - Rev Strat M at Upside Exhaustion Main Weekly Setups To Watch: Bullish: RTX - 3-1-1 W PLTR - MoMo Hammer W, Inside D GOOG - RevStrat Hammer D, Inside W Bearish: GAP - 3-1 at Exhaustion COIN - 2-1 W, Failed 2U D PINS - Shooter RevStrat Week, Shooter Inside D RDDT - Inside W (11 Consecutive Weekly HLs) SQ - Red Inside D/W at Q Exhaustion
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
Bullish bias on GBPCAD on Friday June 07.What I see? A nice weekly 2-1-2 Bullish Rev in force and an early entry on daily with a really nice R/R. What I expect? Tomorrow, The Net Change of Employment and Unemployment Rate will be released by Statistics Canada Both data are expected to be lower/higher than expected in a bearish way. Furthermore, the Canadian dollar futures seem to be in consolidation(what I don't like) after a downward trend, however there are no strong signals to have a bullish bias on CAD. My strategy is based on TheStrat + Fundamentals + Convergence/Divergence.
Long
by hascardenas
Bullish bias on AUDUSD weekly timeframePosition: Long Entry date: The new daily candle on 05/27/2024 should trigger the entry at 0.66365. Stop-loss: 0.65922 Risk/reward: 1:2.19 Swap: It's quite low considering that this trade is supposed to be held for about 7 days, and the interest rates on AUD/USD are not significantly different. Pros: 1) The monthly trend is bullish. 2) The weekly timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Continuation pattern. 3) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-2 Bullish Reversal, which we can use as an ancipated entry to trigger the weekly. Cons: 1) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip.
Long
by hascardenas
Bullish bias on NZDUSD monthly timeframePosition: Long Entry date: 05/24/2024 on daily timefrime. Risk/reward: 1:2.27 Pros: 1) The quarterly trend is bullish. 2) The monthly timeframe shows a 2-2 Bullish Reversal pattern. 3) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that goes along with the weekly timeframe continuity(when the new weekly candle opens on Monday). Cons: 1) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip. 2) The first entry was already triggered, so we missed some movement, but it's okay not to be the first in. 3) The weekly timeframe doesn't show a confirmation pattern.
Long
by hascardenas
Bullish bias on EURUSD monthly timeframePosition: Long Entry date: 05/25/2024 on daily timefrime. Risk/reward: 1:2.37 Pros: 1) The quarterly trend is bullish. 2) The monthly timeframe shows a 2-2 Bullish Reversal pattern. 3) The weekly timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that could trigger an entry on the monthly timeframe. 4) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that could trigger an entry on the weekly timeframe. Cons: 1) The weekly timeframe does not have continuity with the daily timeframe, but since it is an anticipatory entry, it is acceptable. 2) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip.
Long
by hascardenas
3
EOY Review $DIS first baby steps back up The good thing about NYSE:DIS is the outside quarter but, it couldn't close above that Q3 high, so still not that strong of a look given it took out the low of '22 and closed above it, this could mean we've seen the worst overall, if the 3 on the quarter might see some continuation upwards, I see this just as the first baby steps of what could be a nice run back up so, first things first, let's see a close above the Q4 high first and than see what's next anything can happen
NYSE:DIS
by RobinsOptions
EOY Review $CMCSA inside year, momo hammer quarterNASDAQ:CMCSA that momo hammer on the quarter looks promising, but these type of candles can easily reverse and when it does, it typically drops back quickly the inside year tells me to wait for further clues first before taking trades hence, no long or short (bias) for me on this one yet obviously, when that hammer high on the quarter gets taken out and price continues to move up, the overall picture improves, with the '23 and '22 highs as important pivots
NASDAQ:CMCSA
by RobinsOptions
$AMZN Still strong, a pull back and reversal back up (?)Decent shooter on the 2D could signal a pull back on NASDAQ:AMZN , would be nice to see a reversal move up further North. With Monthly OPEX for May behind us, see how it moves from here. AMZN strong, but not the ultra strong move AAPL had so far on the year. Also giving it more potential before it reaches exhaustion risk like AAPL at current levels. No FOMO, no chasing for me. Definitely looking for to long AMZN IF this scenario will unfold. IF this THEN that. IF not, also fine. There will be hundreds if not thousands more trading opportunities. As long as you stay in the game. Hence, patience.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by RobinsOptions